All systems go: Covers member explains his effective MLB betting strategy
The Chicago White Sox are a prime candidate to fade in the last two months of the baseball season as they continue to trade away their best players.
There are many different ways of betting on sports and there are many different types of sports bettors. Some scan the odds board, pick a side or total they like, and then place their bet (*raises hand*).
Then there are others who prefer to incorporate more structure and strategy into how they wager on games.
Dan Wiese, known as Danrules24 to the community, falls into the second group. Wiese likes to use systems with guidelines to build his bankroll.
A betting system is something developed to find opportunities to either back or fade a team in a given situation. If you fade a football team traveling across country on a short week regardless of the spread – that’s a system play.
One of Wiese’s systems is getting a lot of attention in the systems and strategies forum. Even though the system is explained at great length in the forum thread, Wiese was kind enough to take the time to explain how his popular MLB second-half strategy works.
Wiese says he came up with the idea based off the success of another system of member CKP22. That scheme involved backing the top teams after the midsummer break on six or greater game homestands.
Wiese had trouble making CKP22’s strategy work for him so he decided to make a variation: he started fading bad teams after the break that were on the road for five or more games at a time.
“My thinking was that these teams have already given up for the year,” says Wiese, “will trade any valuable assets for prospects and will be willing to play younger players. The odds seemed to be a bit lower than betting on the top teams.”
The point of the system is to pick up a one unit win from a road trip, discontinue the bet and wait for the next bad team to begin another long road trip.
Here are the full parameters of system break down like this:
• Fade MLB teams after the All-Star break with .435 winning percentage or worse
• On road trips of five games or greater
• Take the runline on the dog if your fade team is favored
• Chase a loss but only if there are five or more games left on the road swing
The chase is a procedure to recoup earnings when the fade team wins a game. So, if we were in Game 1 of a series and our one unit play came up snake eyes because the fade team won, we would bet two units plus the juice to get us back on track.
“If Game 1 was -130 and unit size was $10, you’d lose $13,” Wiese explains. “Game 2 would be to win $23.”
Wiese has been using the system since 2013 but he looked back to 2002 to make sure there was profit potential before putting it into play. His best seasons using the system are 2014 and 2016, in which he returned one unit of profit in 64 of 65 qualified series during those two years.
As with any system, there’s always room for tweaking. Wiese included the Chicago White Sox in the fade group even though they their win percentage was above .435 at the break. It was clear from the trades the team was making that Chicago was bailing on this season and building for the long term.
The White Sox went 1-4 on a recent five-game away stint and lost the first game of the trip – a win for the system. The Philadelphia Phillies went 3-3 on their six-game away trip but they lost the first game of their series – which again would have been a win for the system.
Wiese says likes using system plays for baseball and hockey - the sports he does best in betting. He likes football but steers clear from betting on it.
“I can’t pick a football game to save my life,” Wiese says with a laugh.
He says that but the first game he can remember betting on was Super Bowl XXII. A work friend thought the Denver Broncos would kill Wiese’s Washington Redskins. The friend told him he could have the Redskins and 10 points. Washington won 41-10. The Vegas spread on that game: Denver -3.5. Talk about a value play.
The Chicago White Sox are a prime candidate to fade in the last two months of the baseball season as they continue to trade away their best players.
There are many different ways of betting on sports and there are many different types of sports bettors. Some scan the odds board, pick a side or total they like, and then place their bet (*raises hand*).
Then there are others who prefer to incorporate more structure and strategy into how they wager on games.
Dan Wiese, known as Danrules24 to the community, falls into the second group. Wiese likes to use systems with guidelines to build his bankroll.
A betting system is something developed to find opportunities to either back or fade a team in a given situation. If you fade a football team traveling across country on a short week regardless of the spread – that’s a system play.
One of Wiese’s systems is getting a lot of attention in the systems and strategies forum. Even though the system is explained at great length in the forum thread, Wiese was kind enough to take the time to explain how his popular MLB second-half strategy works.
Wiese says he came up with the idea based off the success of another system of member CKP22. That scheme involved backing the top teams after the midsummer break on six or greater game homestands.
Wiese had trouble making CKP22’s strategy work for him so he decided to make a variation: he started fading bad teams after the break that were on the road for five or more games at a time.
“My thinking was that these teams have already given up for the year,” says Wiese, “will trade any valuable assets for prospects and will be willing to play younger players. The odds seemed to be a bit lower than betting on the top teams.”
The point of the system is to pick up a one unit win from a road trip, discontinue the bet and wait for the next bad team to begin another long road trip.
Here are the full parameters of system break down like this:
• Fade MLB teams after the All-Star break with .435 winning percentage or worse
• On road trips of five games or greater
• Take the runline on the dog if your fade team is favored
• Chase a loss but only if there are five or more games left on the road swing
The chase is a procedure to recoup earnings when the fade team wins a game. So, if we were in Game 1 of a series and our one unit play came up snake eyes because the fade team won, we would bet two units plus the juice to get us back on track.
“If Game 1 was -130 and unit size was $10, you’d lose $13,” Wiese explains. “Game 2 would be to win $23.”
Wiese has been using the system since 2013 but he looked back to 2002 to make sure there was profit potential before putting it into play. His best seasons using the system are 2014 and 2016, in which he returned one unit of profit in 64 of 65 qualified series during those two years.
As with any system, there’s always room for tweaking. Wiese included the Chicago White Sox in the fade group even though they their win percentage was above .435 at the break. It was clear from the trades the team was making that Chicago was bailing on this season and building for the long term.
The White Sox went 1-4 on a recent five-game away stint and lost the first game of the trip – a win for the system. The Philadelphia Phillies went 3-3 on their six-game away trip but they lost the first game of their series – which again would have been a win for the system.
Wiese says likes using system plays for baseball and hockey - the sports he does best in betting. He likes football but steers clear from betting on it.
“I can’t pick a football game to save my life,” Wiese says with a laugh.
He says that but the first game he can remember betting on was Super Bowl XXII. A work friend thought the Denver Broncos would kill Wiese’s Washington Redskins. The friend told him he could have the Redskins and 10 points. Washington won 41-10. The Vegas spread on that game: Denver -3.5. Talk about a value play.
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