Mlb 2017

[Udog]

It's getting close, guys. I'll keep adding preseason info as it comes out. Have fun this season and good luck to everybody!

[Udog]

Three live long shots to win 2017 Major League Baseball home run title

Over the last five seasons, only Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles (197) has hit more home runs than Edwin Encarnacion's 193.

The Major League Baseball regular season is right around the corner. One of the most unpredictable, and therefore profitable, futures to take a shot at is the player who will have the most home runs in baseball during the regular season.

Let's take a look at a few players who offer terrific value and potential for the upcoming MLB season.

Odds provided by Westgate LV Superbook.

Chris Carter - New York Yankees (80/1)

The New York Yankees inked, 2016 National League home run co-leader, Chris Carter to a ridiculously inexpensive 1-year, three million dollar deal in early February. The real-life "Pedro Cerrano" from 'Major League' will certainly suffer his fair share of strikeouts, but hitting in Yankee Stadium (especially for a player willing to spray the ball with power to all fields) will almost certainly allow Carter to flirt with the 40 home run mark once again. He will, most likely, start in a platoon situation and only play against lefties, but injuries alway happen in baseball and there is no player being dropped into a better situation to rack up home run production than the mighty righty. Supreme value at 80/1.

Edwin Encarnacion - Cleveland Indians (40/1)

Edwin Encarnacion has made the move from the Toronto Blue Jays to the defending American League Champions, the Cleveland Indians. While Edwin is certainly moving to a less home run friendly ballpark, that shouldn't impact his production in a negative way - his home runs are not exactly "wall scratchers". Over the last five seasons, only Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles (197) has hit more home runs than Encarnacion's 193. He's perfectly capable of putting up a 45-plus dinger campaign, and at 40/1 you have to jump on that.

Kris Bryant - Chicago Cubs (20/1)

At 20/1, Kris Bryant may not be as much of a long shot as the other sluggers listed in this article, but based on potential he has to be considered incredible value. Bryant is the perfect home run specimen. He's tall, slender but strong, and has the perfect amount of uppercut in his swing to put some historic numbers on the board at Wrigley Field. He's like a modern day version of Dave Kingman. His goal each and every time he comes to the plate (a swing and strategy drilled home by his father at a very young age) is to create loft and hit long fly balls. When you play 81 games at "The Friendly Confines", you can expect a lot of those long fly balls to land in the basket above the outfield wall in left - or out on Waveland Avenue.

[Udog]

Three live long shots to win the 2017 World Series

You can be assured of one thing - if the Orioles make it to the 2017 postseason, Buck Showalter will not leave Britton sitting on the bullpen bench.

As this is being written the Cubs are parading around the streets of Chicago celebrating their 2016 World Series Championship with millions and millions of their fans. What better time to look ahead to 2017 and pull out a few longshot candidates to knock the Cubbies off their pedestal as baseball's best.

Free agency season hasn't even begun but the sportsbooks have already released odds to win next year's World Series. The Cubs are 3/1 favorites to hoist the Commissioner's Trophy once again followed by a trio of teams at 10/1 (Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox) but it's always more fun to look at teams who could potentially come out of the weeds, go on an improbable playoff run and cash some big money betting tickets for the risk-taking gamblers.

Here are three potential longshots to win the 2017 World Series championship (odds via Westgate LV Superbook):

St. Louis Cardinals (20/1)

Simply put, the St. Louis Cardinals organization is not going to allow their rivals from Chicago celebrate a championship and not put all of their cards (no pun intended) on the table in the offseason. They definitely have plenty of issues to address during free agency, but the National League Central has been their division for the last 10 years and they won't sit back and watch this dynasty develop on the North Side without putting up a fight.

They will need to add a couple of strong arms to their starting rotation and some impact bats to their lineup but they will spend, spend, spend in order to take some shine away from the Cubs.

Baltimore Orioles (20/1)

The Baltimore Orioles are one of those teams that nobody outside of the Delaware, Maryland, Virginia area seems to give any credit for being good. They won the very difficult American League East in 2014 and have been in the mix over the last two seasons as well - losing to the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Wild Card game in 2016.

Terry Francona's use of Andrew Miller in the 2016 postseason for the Cleveland Indians will change the thought process of managers all across Major League Baseball. The best arm in the bullpen will not always be reserved for the ninth inning and the Orioles have the best arm in all of baseball in Zach Britton. You can be assured of one thing - if the Orioles make it to the 2017 postseason, Buck Showalter will not leave Britton sitting on the bullpen bench.

Adding two starting pitchers during free agency will go a long way to getting the Orioles back to the playoffs in 2017.

Philadelphia Phillies (100/1)

This one is the big, big longshot for the list. While the Cubs built their championship team with a really good core of young offensive talent and bringing in pitching through free agency and trades, the Philadelphia Phillies are going the opposite way by nurturing great young arms and leaving themselves a lot of work to do on the offensive side of the ball.

The Phillies have finally purged themselves of the old creaky bats from their lineup and look like they have a very bright future. In order to cash at 100/1 in 2017 they will need to add a ton of talent and speed up their process a bit - but anything is possible, right?

[Udog]

MLB season win totals released with one team's number historically high

“I thought 95.5 was a good place to start. It’s tough to bet the over, but man, do you really want to bet them under?”

Over the course of the next few days, pitchers and catchers will report to sun-splashed spring training sites across Florida and Arizona. Ten days from now, all position players will be in camp as well, and seven weeks from now, another Major League Baseball season will be upon us.

So it’s a perfect time to roll out 2017 season win totals – starting with the 2016 World Series champion.

The Chicago Cubs, who last year exorcised 108 years’ worth of demons by winning their first title since 1908, are favored to repeat this season. And Steve Mikkelson, sportsbook director at the Atlantis in Reno, has them favored to lead the way in regular-season victories, too, setting the Cubbies’ total at 95.5.

“That’s a really big total that I’ve put out there, compared to previous years,” said Mikkelson, a baseball savant in the bookmaking business. “Normally, my high has been right around 90, maybe a little above 90. The last time it was close to this high was the Phillies a few years back, when they had Cliff Lee, Roy Halliday and Cole Hamels in their rotation, and Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. They were a pretty stacked team.”

But the Cubs’ total this year was necessarily high coming off their futility-ending 2016. Chicago led the majors with a 103-58 regular-season mark last year (.640 winning percentage), and won the World Series in a thrilling, extra-inning Game 7 at Cleveland.

“Obviously, I won’t hang 103. That’d be crazy,” Mikkelson said, before explaining that with a great rotation, the acquisition of closer Wade Davis to replace Aroldis Chapman, and the rest of the roster loaded with talent, he couldn’t lowball the champs. “I thought 95.5 was a good place to start. It’s tough to bet the over, but man, do you really want to bet them under?”

Meanwhile, defending American League champion Cleveland had the second-highest win total at the Atlantis, at 92.5.

“To me, I actually like the Red Sox better, but it’s the division they play in,” Mikkelson said, noting Boston – which he opened at 90.5 wins – has a tougher challenge in the AL East, with the likes of the Orioles, Yankees, Blue Jays and potentially even the Rays. “In the AL Central, the Twins are rebuilding, the White Sox are rebuilding. Kansas City is the hardest to pick, because you don’t know what they’re gonna do. Several players are free agents at the end of the year. If they go 10-20 in their first 30 games, they’re gonna sell the team off.

“There’s just not a whole lot of other teams that are gonna threaten Cleveland.”

Still, Mikkelson gives Boston a better chance of reaching the World Series and in fact has the Red Sox as the second choice to win it all, behind the Cubs.

“This team is built to win right now,” Mikkelson said. “The trade for Chris Sale … Dave Dombrowski traded off a lot of top prospects. Anything short of a World Series, and the Red Sox are gonna be disappointed. One of the reasons I like the Red Sox is because injuries are gonna happen, so you have to have depth. They go six starting pitchers deep.”

For similar reasons, Mikkelson opened the Los Angeles Dodgers’ win total at 91.5, third-highest in the majors. The Dodgers got to 91 wins and the postseason last year, losing to Chicago in the National League Championship Series, and that was despite superstar ace Clayton Kershaw missing significant time.

“Kershaw goes down, but because their starting pitching was so deep, they were able to continue to win, because they had major league-quality pitchers to fill in,” Mikkelson said of the Blue Crew, which has won four straight NL West titles. “They kept their team basically together, and I like the pick-up of (second baseman) Logan Forsythe. In Kershaw, they have arguably the best pitcher in baseball to lead the way, and look at last year. He was out six weeks. If he goes the whole year, that’s 20 wins or close to it.”

Then there’s the one team Mikkelson very much expects to struggle, with a win total that shows it. The San Diego Padres opened at 64.5, and to hear Mikkelson tell it, the under might be the play on this overmatched, under-talented squad.

“This San Diego Padres team is really, really, really bad,” Mikkelson emphasized. “There ain’t a chance in the world this team doesn’t lose 100-plus games. I can’t go to 58.5, because the only bets I’m gonna take would be on the over, but just look at the starting staff. They may have five guys who couldn’t start for any other team in the major leagues. Those guys couldn’t even start for bad teams in the majors, and the Padres will be marching them out there every day.

“This team’s gonna score the fewest runs in baseball and have the worst pitching staff in baseball. That’s a terrible combination.”

Here’s the full list of 2016 MLB season win totals, courtesy of the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa:

[Udog]

American League East Betting Preview: Red Sox favorites despite early scare

The recent David Price scare is a concern. Even though surgery will not be required on his elbow this could be a lingering issue going forward.

The David Price injury scare for Boston at the beginning of spring training had the other teams in the American League East salivating at their potential chances to steal the division. However, Price pulled off the virtually impossible by returning from an appointment with Dr. James Andrews without an appointment for surgery. The Red Sox are definitely the class of the A.L. East if their starting rotation holds up.

Baltimore Orioles (2016: 89-73, +1,611 units, 67-91-4 O/U)

Division odds: +800
Season win total: 78.5

Why bet the Orioles: Baltimore continues to play above average baseball despite having, what many say, is a below average pitching rotation on paper. That is why having a great manager is essential. Buck Showalter pushes the right buttons and certainly having one of the best bullpens in the game does not hurt either. Offensively, the team is stacked again as last season, the Orioles led the majors with 253 homers in 2016 and were third with a .443 slugging percentage.

Why not bet the Orioles: The aforementioned starting rotation did not get an upgrade in the offseason which can be problematic considering their 4.72 ERA was very ugly. They did get rid of Yovani Gallardo, which is a plus, but there is very little depth to make up for any loss. The loss of catcher Matt Wieters could affect the starters as well. The Bullpen arguably hit its peak last season so a regression is more than possible. The offense has to find a way to produce runs instead of leaning too heavily on the long ball.

Season win total pick: Over 78.5


Boston Red Sox (2016: 93-69, +246 units, 77-78-7 O/U)

Division odds: -155
Season win total: 87

Why bet the Red Sox: The acquisition of David Price and the monster season for Rick Porcello pushed the Red Sox over the top in the American League East and now they have added another horse in Chris Sale. Boston now possesses the best rotation in the American League and should carry it to another A.L. East title. Offensively, the Red Sox led the majors in runs and have plenty of superstars in the making with Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi (on the way).

Why not bet the Red Sox: The recent David Price scare is a concern. Even though surgery will not be required on his elbow this could be a lingering issue going forward. This has to be a concern although leaning on Sale is a huge asset to have. The loss of David Ortiz cannot be overstated - his numbers were once again outstanding but his presence in the clubhouse will be equally missed. The weak spot of the team is in the bullpen despite having a big name in Craig Kimbrel as the closer.

Season win total pick: Under 87


New York Yankees (2016: 84-78, +354 units, 72-80-10 O/U)

Division odds: +550
Season win total: 85

Why bet the Yankees: Expectations are not very high for the Yankees this season so they could be a sleeper team to contend for a playoff spot. The offense was average at best in 2016 as it ranked No. 20 in average and No. 22 in runs scored - the addition of Matt Holliday should help in that department. The Yankees were able to get closer Aroldis Chapman back and along with setup man Dellin Betances, they will be tough for opposing offenses to break through in the eighth and ninth innings.

Why not bet the Yankees: Holliday is on the decline so he may not be the answer to fully fix the offense that is going to rely on a lot of youngsters - Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury are coming off very poor seasons. If the offense does not show much improvement, it could be a very long season based on a very average starting rotation. Masahiro Tanaka is a stud at the top but C.C. Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Luis Severino are tough to depend on after that.

Season win total pick: Under 85


Tampa Bay Rays (2016: 68-94, -3,012 units, 78-75-9 O/U)

Division odds: +2150
Season win total: 82.5

Why bet the Rays: The starting rotation is very solid and can carry the Rays as long as it stays together. Chris Archer leads the way and with four very serviceable arms to round it out, they can help turn this team around. Like the Orioles, Tampa Bay relies on the long ball as it finished No. 6 in baseball in home runs last season and it will be looking for more consistency. The additions of Colby Rasmus and Wilson Ramos should help and while the bullpen is not outstanding, it should be serviceable.

Why not bet the Rays: The Rays won just 68 games last season, their fewest since 2007 when they won 66. They made no big improvements so it is hard to envision any sort of major move to try and contend in the division. While they were near the top in home runs, they were near the bottom in runs scored while finished No. 27 in strikeouts. While the bullpen is getting the benefit of the doubt, the Rays ERA of 4.09 from the relievers was fifth worst in the American League.

Season win total pick: Under 82.5


Toronto Blue Jays (2016: 89-73, -919 units, 63-93-6 O/U)

Division odds: +425
Season win total: 86.5

Why bet the Blue Jays: Toronto has made the playoffs each of the last two seasons, after an over two-decade drought, and should contend in the American League East once again. The offense remains potent with Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Bautista leading the charge and the defense is pretty solid as well. The starting rotation is young and talented and the departure of R.A. Dickey is a big positive as his four years in Toronto were a major bust.

Why not bet the Blue Jays: The bullpen is a major concern, outside of closer Roberto Osuna, as the loss of Brett Cecil will hurt the middle inning relief. While the offense still has potent options, Edwin Encarnacion not being in the lineup will be felt. Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ went a combined 35-6 last season and there is plenty of reason to believe those numbers will not be matched in 2017. Platoons at first base and left field are not good signs for stability throughout the season.

Season win total pick: Over 86.5

[Udog]

National League East Betting Preview: Division is Nationals' to lose

Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg combined to go 35-11 in 2016 and Joe Ross was a very pleasant surprise.

Once again in 2017, we have a clear pair of front-runners in the Nationals and Mets with the Braves, Phillies and Marlins trying to close the gap. New York has the better pitching staff, but their health over a 162 game span is a concern. Washington has more depth and should be able to claim first place once again.

Atlanta Braves (2016: 68-93, +3.88 units, 82-69-10 O/U)

Division odds: +3500
Season win total: 74

Why bet the Braves: They will have one of the best prospects in Dansby Swanson for 162 games. Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia and R.A. Dickey come over to make this rotation tougher especially if Julio Teheran takes the next step. Freddie Freeman hit over .300 last season and has decent protection in Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips who came over from Cincinnati.

Why not bet the Braves: It is hard to trust Jim Johnson as a closer although the 33-year old is likely to be dealt around the trade deadline. Depth is also an issue so injuries to Freeman, Swanson or any of the members of the regular lineup would be a problem. This team is still a few years away from being a true contender.

Season win total pick: Over 74 wins


Miami Marlins (2016: 79-82, -6.11 units, 80-75-6 O/U)

Division odds: +1500
Season win total: 77.5

Why bet the Marlins: The lineup is stacked with solid hitters starting with Dee Gordon and Martin Prado at the top, and all the way down to Justin Bour and J.T. Realmuto. The team was 2nd in the National League in batting average behind Colorado last year. Brad Zeigler is an underrated addition to a bullpen that has the potential to be very good.

Why not bet the Marlins: Who is the ace? They have a bunch of 2's and 3's in Wei-Yin Chen, Edinson Volquez, Adam Conley and Jeff Locke. The unfortunate passing of Jose Fernandez means this rotation just doesn't have a lockdown starter. Giancarlo Stanton missed a chunk of the season last year so his lack of durability comes into play again.

Season win total pick: Under 77.5 wins


New York Mets (2016: 87-75, -7.55 units, 74-85-3 O/U)

Division odds: +170
Season win total: 88.5

Why bet the Mets: The rotation gets Zack Wheeler back and now from top to bottom these starters match up with anyone in baseball. Noah Syndergaard threw the fastest fastball for all starting pitchers, while Jacob deGrom continues to be stellar. Yoenis Cespedes is returning and New York played nearly .600 ball with him in the lineup. Jeurys Familia locks games down in the 9th and had only five blown saves in 2016.

Why not bet the Mets: Matt Harvey regressed last season and posted a weak 4.86 ERA. Injuries can also derail this rotation with several starters missing time last season. David Wright is already banged up, while Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto aren't exactly entering 2017 with a ton of momentum after struggling in 2016.

Season win total pick: Under 88.5 wins


Philadelphia Phillies (2016: 71-91, -2.01 units, 78-76-8 O/U)

Division odds: +2500
Season win total: 73

Why bet the Phillies: Sneaky offseason pickups of Howie Kendrick, Joaquin Benoit and Pat Neshek add some credibility to this team. Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez and Aaron Nola all had stretches of good pitching and they are now more experienced. Odubel Herrera hit 15 home runs and he led baseball with a 14.6% infield hit rate.

Why not bet the Phillies: The additions are not enough to fix an offense that scored only 610 runs last year which was by far the fewest in the entire league. They hit .230 at home which was the worst in the team's history. Velasquez is coming off an injury and new addition Clay Buchholz had a 4.78 ERA for Boston in 21 starts last season. This team may sell a few more veterans around the trading deadline if they aren't contending.

Season win total pick: Under 73 wins


Washington Nationals (2016: 95-67, +0.27 units, 76-78-8 O/U)

Division odds: -150
Season win total: 91

Why bet the Nationals: An extremely deep starting rotation with Gio Gonzalez a very talented 4th starter. Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg went 35-11 in 2016 and Joe Ross was a very pleasant surprise. The lineup scored almost 800 runs last year and may get close to that again in 2017 with Adam Eaton setting the table for the likes of Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon.

Why not bet the Nationals: Who is going to close games? Right now the talk is Shawn Kelley or potentially Koda Glover. Kelley is a veteran who had seven saves last year for the team, but can he shut down good opposing lineups in August and September? Scherzer is dealing with an ailment already in spring training, while Strasburg is an injury waiting to happen. Picking up Eaton in the offseason cost the Nationals some of their starting pitching depth in Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez.

Season win total pick: Over 91 wins

[Udog]

Pro handicappers give their 2017 MLB season win total Under picks

After winning their first World Series in 108 years there are lofty expectations for the Cubs in 2017. Is more than 95.5 regular season wins doable?

Players have reported to camp and Spring Training games are in full swing, which means Opening Day is just a little more than a month away. So now that rosters, are for the most part set, there is no better time to start looking at handicapping regular season win totals.

Most sportsbooks operators in Las Vegas have hung their numbers on the board for each and every big league team and we turned those odds over to our roster of Covers Experts handicappers and asked them to give their favorite Under picks for the 2017 MLB season win totals:

Zack Cimini: Chicago Cubs - Under 95.5

"The Cubs run was magical last year and oddsmakers aren't fooled this go around. Eclipsing 95.5 wins in a division that's as tough as any is going to a difficult task. I'm also not sold on the Cubs receiving the boost at the back end of their rotation as they did a season ago."

Marc Lawrence: Cleveland Indians - Under 93.5, Chicago Cubs - Under 95.5

"Many like the Tribe to sail over this number with the expected return of outfielder Michael Brantley, the addition of Edwin Encarnacion and the return to health of starting pitchers Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco. But note: the last four times the Indians eclipsed 90 victories in a season they followed up the next year with win totals of 85, 81, 78 and 74. Buyer beware.

"Defending World Series champions carry a major target on their backs the following season. Remember, it took 103 wins last season in order for the Cubs to snap the 108-year curse. In fact, the last National League team with more wins in a season was the 1993 Atlanta Braves. The combination of too much champagne and a major World Series hangover (none of the previous four champions have made it back to the playoffs) does the Cubs in this season."

Al McCordie: Colorado Rockies - Under 80.5

"You have to scratch your head a bit at a prediction that a team that finished 12 games under .500 (and hasn't finished with a .500 mark in seven seasons) and that added almost nobody new to its roster in the off-season is being tabbed for 81 out of 162 this year. Yet that is the situation we have with the Colorado Rockies. The one impact player who is joining the Rox from the off-season is IF/OF Ian Desmond, who had a big comeback season last year after signing a one-year deal with the Rangers. But Colorado has penciled in Desmond to be its first baseman, a position he's never played on a regular basis.

"More importantly, a pitching staff that had the fourth-worst overall numbers in baseball (4.91 team ERA) added only reliever Greg Holland to its roster and he is far from a sure thing given his recent history of injuries. So, last season's makeshift rotation, which had a ghastly 4.79 ERA, remains essentially unchanged.

"But perhaps the biggest reason to question a .500 record for the only mile-high team in baseball is the fact that, if they're not contending by July, there is fairly good chance the Rockies will start shipping some of their top veteran players off to contending clubs. Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez (a free agent after this season) and even the recently-obtained Desmond (who is on an affordable contract) could all find themselves in other places come August. That would certainly spell the end of any hopes for a .500 season. Finally, the NL West will not be a push-over division in 2017 with the Giants and Diamondbacks likely improving from 2016 while the Dodgers are a legitimate World Series Contender. Take the Rockies Under 80.5 wins."

Larry Ness: Los Angeles Angels - Under 80.5

"One of the warning signs of a weak pitching staff, is bringing a slew of arms into training camp and hoping that one or two can separate themselves from the rest. That’s what Anaheim faces these days. Longtime innings-eating ace Jered Weaver is gone and Garrett Richards inherits the job – but Richards has arm problems and much like in the movie Major League, the door is wide open for anyone who with a mid-90s fastball.

"Backing up a questionable staff are Mike Trout and – well, that’s about it. The Angels are paying the price for neglecting their farm system and throwing money at quick-fix free agents like Albert Pujols (still owed $140 million, coming off December foot surgery and may miss the season’s start) and Josh Hamilton. The middle infield - SS Aldrelton Simmons and newcomer 2B Danny Esponosa - should be excellent defensively and it will have to be. Catching is another issue, as Martin Maldonado (who has never played more than 66 games in a season) comes over from Milwaukee and tries to plug that hole. Management insists it will contend, but fans will have to head for Disneyland if they want consistent entertainment. A .500 season in an improved American League West looks like a pipedream."

Power Sports: New York Yankees - Under 83.5

"We don't think of the Yankees as an overachiever, but give skipper Joe Girardi credit. It's pretty much been a miracle to see this team continue to finish with a winning record, year after year. In three of the past four seasons, the team in Pinstripes has been outscored. I don't see them being better than last year, even factoring in the arrival of Aroldis Chapman."

Brandon Shively: San Diego Padres - Under 67.5

"The San Diego Padres are going to be terrible this year. It's hard to lose 100 games in Major League Baseball, but I expect the Padres to do it this season. San Diego's outfield is Hunter Renfroe, Travis Jankowski, and Manuel Margot. Their starting rotation is the worst in baseball with Jhoulys Chacin as their likely opening day starter. Additionally, remember that the NL West is a really strong division. Everyone outside of the Padres is improved in this division. Someone has to lose and I think it will be San Diego."




Their season win total Over picks

The Pirates notched just 87 wins inn 2016 after winning 98 the year before. Is this year's number of 82.5 too low?

Ben Burns: San Francisco Giants - Over 87.5

"San Fran blew 30 of 73 save opportunities last season. Not only was that the most in the majors last season but it also ranked in the top 10, in terms of most blown saves in a season, of all-time. Yet, the Giants still won 87 games. Signing free agent reliever Mark Melancon should help improve in that area and should translate to a few more wins over the course of a season. Go Over 87.5."

Zack Cimini: Arizona Diamondback - Over 77.5

"Lets face it the Diamondbacks have been a mess and have made some questionable acquisitions in recent years. Yet, they have a solid young core of bats that are now healthy. A little more consistency with pitching and they should topple this low win total."

Teddy Covers: Boston Red Sox - Over 92.5

"Forget the fact that Boston has Chris Sale, David Price and last year’s Cy Young award winner (Rick Porcello) at the top of their rotation. Forget the fact that the Red Sox have a healthy Pablo Sandoval and a hungry Mitch Moreland primed to make up for Big Papi’s departed production. This bet is all about the Red Sox in ‘win now’ mode. Expect Boston to be a "buyer" at the trading deadline, with an even better lineup and bullpen down the stretch than they have today."

Al McCordie: Atlanta Braves - Over 75.5

"No team in the Majors has as many things new and old in 2017 as the Atlanta Braves. On the "new" side there is, first and foremost, a new ballpark to replace the aging Turner Field. Nobody knows exactly how this park will play, but after having subjected the fans to boring, low-scoring games at Turner Field for most of the past decade, it's a good bet that SunTrust Park will be much more of a hitters paradise and that should help the rejuvenated Braves' lineup.

"Next, there are some new faces, most notably a shortstop who is already being called a favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. After getting called up late in 2016, Dansby Swanson will get a full season in 2017 and he should give Atlanta some pop at the back-end of a lineup which has been sorely needing it for some time. Coupled with new-comer, veteran Brandon Phillips at second, this tandem should make the Braves one of the most solid up-the-middle defensively. Also, the top of the lineup is deceptively strong, with Freddie Freeman (looking to make a run at an MVP) having the protection of cleanup hitter Matt Kemp behind him for an entire season. They have a shot at hitting 60-plus homers between them."

Will Rogers: Colorado Rockies - Over 80.5

"Over the break, the Rockies signed Ian Desmond to a 5-year $70 million (highest paid free agent) contract. They also bolstered their bullpen with Mike Dunn. Perhaps most importantly of all, they added an experienced manager, Bud Black. I expect them to be much better than last year. The Rockies haven't gone over the 80-win mark any of the past six seasons. They should do so this year."

AAA Sports: Washington Nationals - Over 91.5

"The Nats are the ultimate tease team, seeming to at least play well every other season (95 wins last year, 96 in 2014) but falling apart in the playoffs. Now a sense of urgency has settled in as Bryce Harper enters his second-to-last season before bolting in free agency and 91-year-old team owner Ted Lerner yearns for a championship before he gets tapped on the shoulder from above.

"Washington still has great starting pitching (Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Tanner Roark), but the bullpen is once again a question mark and there is no experienced closer on the roster. All eyes will be on phenom rookie of the year favorite Trea Truner, who moves from center to his natural position at shortstop. Turner hit .342 with 40 RBIs and 33 stolen bases in half a season in 2016, and should be the leadoff batter for the next decade if things go right. The Nats need a bounce-back year from Harper, decent production from new CF Adam Eaton and half-decent production from aging first baseman Ryan Zimmerman to keep the Mets off their tails in a very winnable National League East. Washington should again pile up plenty of wins against Philadelphia, Atlanta and Miami – at least enough to get to 92."

Power Sports: Pittsburgh Pirates - Over 82.5

"Last year saw Pittsburgh collapse, falling from 98 all the way down to 78 wins. Will they improve enough to make the playoffs this year? We're not sure, but they will increase their win total by at least five. A curiously poor 19-30 record in day games last year seems pretty random, as does a losing record at PNC park. Those two areas alone should result in the increase we need, but the pitching staff is also projected to improve, especially if Gerritt Cole can stay healthy."

Brandon Shively: Chicago White Sox - Over 68.5

"The Chicago White Sox have some solid young talent. Tim Anderson is going to be a star in the league and I think he takes a big step forward this season. Jose Quintana is an underrated starter and I expect Carlos Rodon to continue to improve. While this isn't going to be a really good team, this line is set too low. The White Sox should fall in the 72-76 win range, which gives us nice value on the Over for the season win total."




Their season pitcher win picks

Marcus Stroman could be one the best pitcher on one of the best staffs in baseball. Is O/U 10.5 wins for him this season to low?

Ben Burns: Marcus Stroman Over 10.5

Health had previously been a problem for Stroman. Last year, he stayed fairly healthy but managed only nine wins. That sub-par result has helped keep this season's projected win total quite low. He enters spring training in great health and with a great attitude. Supported by what should be a strong Jays' offense, I like his chances of exceeding 10 wins. Go Over 10.5.

Teddy Covers: Most wins by any pitcher - Under 21.5

"Rick Porcello won 22 games in 33 starts last year and Jake Arrieta won 22 games in 33 starts in 2015. No other pitcher has won more than 21 games over the last five seasons. Given the nature of MLB circa 2017, pitchers don’t get enough starts and they leave too many decisions in the hands of the bullpen to expect the exception this year, rather than the rule. At -110, I have little hesitation expecting the winningest pitcher in baseball this year to finish with 21 victories or less."

Larry Ness: Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays (Over 10.5 wins)

"Could Stroman be the best pitcher on the best starting pitching staff in baseball? You’ll get arguments from Boston and Washington, but the Jays will have a solid rotation and Stroman looks ready for a breakout year. Injury (2015) and inconsistency (2016) have held back the 5-foot-7 Stroman over the last few years, but all systems are a go this time around.

"Stroman’s numbers last season were mediocre (9-10, 4.37), but they were skewed by a slow start punctuated by a terrible June and over the final three months his ERA was 3.40 and he was one of the better starters in the American League – so good that he led the Jays past Baltimore in the wild-card game and pitched well in an ALCS loss. The key stat was 204 innings pitched. Stroman is now nearly three full years removed from ACL surgery, so health certainly should not be an issue. Neither is confidence a problem. Getting to 11 wins should not be a problem."

Will Rogers: Chris Archer (TB) - Over 12.5

Archer is mostly known as a strikeout pitcher, but this year I expect him to be a strikeout and a winning pitcher. Last season, he was admittedly pretty mediocre, having a 4.02 ERA in 33 games. He also gave up a really high amount (30) of home runs, 11 more than his previous worst. That has everyone really down on him entering this season and has kept his projected win total much lower than it could be, given his talent. Keep in mind that Archer, 28, is in his prime and that he's still got outstanding stuff. Expect him to bounce back and get over 12.5 wins.

Bradon Shively: Yu Darvish (TEX) - Over 12.5, Felix Hernandez (SEA) Under 12.5

"There is always some risk as far as injuries with Darvish, but this guy has elite stuff. He also plays on a team where he will get plenty of run support. Darvish has some great swinging strike numbers in his career, and when you miss as many bats as he does, you are going to put yourself in a lot of good positions. We haven't yet seen the best of Darvish and I'll gladly take the over here.

"Felix Hernandez has been one of the best pitchers of the past decade, but all of his numbers from last year look like he is on the decline right now. Hernandez has pitched a lot of innings in his career and I expect his downward trends to continue. His walk rate is double what it was just a couple years ago. Hernandez no longer has the ability to blow everyone away. I'm not saying he is a bad pitcher, but I think he no longer is elite. Take the under."

AAA Sports: Justin Verlander (DET) - Under 13.5

"Subtle signs point to a gradual decline for Verlander, who many believed should have won the Cy Young Award (he finished second, to Rick Porcello of the Red Sox) last season. Start with the wear-and-tear factor. Verlander will be 34 years old this season and barring injury will have some 2,500 total innings on his arm by late in 2017.

"He is coming off a season in which he threw 228 innings, the most since 2012. And it shows a bit – the velocity on his fastball has dropped from a high average of nearly 96 in 2010 to the 92- to 93-mph range last season. Then there’s the team around him. Detroit has avoided a complete rebuild for another year and is hoping to bleed one more productive season out of closer Francisco Rodriguez, but the Tigers look like just OK and they have little chance of overtaking Cleveland in the American League Central. Management might consider a sell-off if things look bleak in late July. Verlander was able to save his season after a slow start last year, but doing so again will be that much more difficult this time around."

Power Sports: Danny Duffy (KC) - Under 11.5, Corey Kluber (CLE) - Over 14.5

"Duffy won 12 games last year despite a pretty pedestrian ERA (3.56) and WHIP (1.132). The Royals will absolutely be a worse team this season and there will be increased pressure on Duffy due to the tragic death of Yordano Ventura. The Royals fielding can only carry Duffy so far in what will be a season of big regression.

"Kluber ended up winning 22 games last year. No way he dips this much given the Indians play in an incredibly weak division and the fact he continues to post solid numbers, year after year."

[Udog]

National League Central Betting Preview: Cubs primed for a repeat?

Following a 108-year World Series slump the Chicago Cubs are the betting favorites to win another championship in 2017.

Once again this season, all the teams in the National League Central division will be chasing the best team in baseball as the Chicago Cubs go for a second straight World Series title.

Chicago Cubs (2016: 103-58, +2.99 units, 75-79-8 O/U)

Division odds: -500
Season win total: 96

Why bet the Cubs: Kyle Schwarber is healthy and that means more hits and runs for an already powerful offensive lineup. He has an on-base percentage of .408 for his career. Wade Davis is a solid closer to replace Aroldis Chapman in the bullpen. Davis had a 1.87 ERA last year for Kansas City. Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta provide a potent top-3 in the starting rotation. Joe Maddon is an excellent manager that will keep this team humble and motivated.

Why not bet the Cubs: The Cubs will be a very public team this year, so their lines will be inflated which takes away value. Chicago must also avoid complacency after finally winning a World Series title. New closer Wade Davis wasn't healthy last year for the Royals, so depth in the bullpen could be a concern. John Lackey is aging which could affect the depth of the starting rotation as well.

Season win total pick: Over 96 wins


Cincinnati Reds (2016: 68-94, -7.26 units, 87-65-10 O/U)

Division odds: +9000
Season win total: 70.5

Why bet the Reds: Joey Votto hit .408 after the All-Star break and is one of the best first basemen in baseball. Raisel Iglesias has some electric stuff out of the bullpen. Billy Hamilton had 58 steals last year and he also covers a ton of ground in the outfield. Anthony DeSclafani was 9-5 with a 3.28 ERA in 2016.

Why not bet the Reds: The rotation is going to be awful as Dan Straily was traded, plus both Homer Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani are currently injured. The bullpen was terrible last year as they led the majors in home runs, walks and runs allowed. Cincinnati will likely be a seller once the trade deadline approaches.

Season win total pick: Under 70.5 wins


Milwaukee Brewers (2016: 73-89, -0.24 units, 74-79-9 O/U)

Division odds: +9000
Season win total: 70

Why bet the Brewers: Ryan Braun is a star and his surgically repaired back allowed him to play 135 games last year. Jonathan Villar led the league in stolen bases with 62. The Brewers became the fourth team in MLB history to hit 180 home runs and steal 180 bases last season. Craig Counsell is a solid manager that will keep his team competing hard all year.

Why not bet the Brewers: The rotation is led by Zach Davies and Junior Guerra and neither one of them is a true No. 1 starter. The rest of the rotation is a host of mediocre veterans including Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, Tommy Milone and Jimmy Nelson. The bullpen is filled with youth and the offensive lineup outside of Braun is inexperienced.

Season win total pick: Over 70 wins


Pittsburgh Pirates (2016: 78-83, -13.78 units, 89-69-4 O/U)

Division odds: +900
Season win total: 83

Why bet the Pirates: Pittsburgh returns the core from last year and they could enter the season underrated after winning just 78 games last season which was twenty games less than the 98 games they won in 2015. Andrew McCutchen remains one of the best all-around players in baseball. Gerrit Cole has the potential to become a solid No. 1 starting pitcher. Tony Watson was an All-Star last year and should be able to make the transition to closer. Pitching coach Ray Searage has been a miracle worker at times.

Why not bet the Pirates: Behind Cole in the rotation is Ivan Nova and some youngsters who are very unproven. Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl and Jameson Taillon are highly touted prospects, but they went just 10-11 combined last season. Daniel Hudson was acquired for the bullpen, but he had a poor 5.22 ERA last year. Pittsburgh might become sellers at the trade deadline if they are not in the playoff race.

Season win total pick: Under 83 wins


St. Louis Cardinals (2016: 86-76, -6.49 units, 83-73-6 O/U)

Division odds: +600
Season win total: 84.5

Why bet the Cardinals: Dexter Fowler comes over from the Cubs and he is going to be a solid addition to a lineup that features Matt Carpenter and Aledmys Diaz. Seung-hwan Oh was one save shy last year of being the sixth rookie ever to have 20 saves and 100 strikeouts. Lance Lynn returns and he has been an All-Star in the past.

Why not bet the Cardinals: Alex Reyes undergoing Tommy John surgery weakens the rotation as he will not be available this year. Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright are coming off poor performances last season. The Cardinals are also an aging team at some key positions. Matt Holliday and Brandon Moss combined for 48 home runs last season, but they have both departed.

Season win total pick: Under 84.5 wins

[Udog]

American League Central Betting Preview: Indians expected to be runaway winner

The Cleveland Indians picked up Edwin Encarnacion to shore up the offense and the starting rotation is one of the best in the American League when healthy.

The Cleveland Indians added to their American League Championship roster in the offseason and, with the rest of the AL Central seemingly taking a step backward, they appear poised to take down another division title in 2017.

Chicago White Sox (2016: 78-84, -630 units, 79-76-7 O/U)

Division odds: +4,850
Season win total: 69.5

Why bet the White Sox: The White Sox are the longshots in the A.L. Central and have the lowest season win total so we can see some value here if the youngsters step up. Obviously, the loss of starting ace Chris Sale is huge but there are a bunch of veterans in the rotation that can hold their own. Jose Abreu saw his production go down last season but he has the ability to carry the offense with minimal help.

Why not bet the White Sox: Chicago looks to be in full rebuilding mode as it traded Sale as well as Adam Eaton for prospects. The future looks bright with some of the young stars it gained but that could be a couple years off. Even if the starting rotation is doing well, the bullpen will not be much of a help as shipping some of those veteran started by the deadline is likely no matter how good or bad it is looking.

Season win total pick: Under 69.5


Cleveland Indians (2016: 94-67, +892 units, 80-70-11 O/U)

Division odds: -380
Season win total: 93.5

Why bet the Indians: Cleveland was picked to finish near the top of the division last season and it ended up running away with the Central. The Indians tore through the playoffs and then built a 3-1 lead in the World Series only to see it disappear in the eventual loss to the Cubs. They picked up Edwin Encarnacion to shore up the offense and the starting rotation is one of the best in the American League when healthy.

Why not bet the Indians: The meltdown in the Fall Classic was tough to see and the Indians hope there is no lingering effects from that. As a whole, the league is better but the division is weaker so they are a big favorite to win and their numbers are overinflated because of it. Cleveland got some key acquisitions but it also lost some important role players and right now the rotation is not close to 100 percent.

Season win total pick: Under 93.5 Wins


Detroit Tigers (2016: 86-75, +1,087 units, 80-73-8 O/U)

Division odds: +525
Season win total: 82.5

Why bet the Tigers: The Tigers made a recovery last season after winning just 74 games in 2015. They made no big offseason acquisitions but they also did not lose much so there should be no drastic fall. This team is loaded with veterans that know how to win and they will be hungry after missing the playoffs the last two seasons. Detroit also benefits from the three teams below them likely not improving.

Why not bet the Tigers: Detroit is one injury away to not being able to come close to contending whether it be Justin Verlander or Miguel Cabrera. The Tigers do possess a solid roster beyond those two but it is one that does not match Cleveland so they are going to have to stay healthy and overachieve which is certainly possible but the percentage of that happening is not very high.

Season win total pick: Over 82.5 Wins


Kansas City Royals (2016: 81-81, +206 units, 75-78-9 O/U)

Division odds: +1,150
Season win total: 75.5

Why bet the Royals: Kansas City won 14 fewer games than it did in its 2015 World Series season and based on the win total, people are expected more of a dropoff. There is plenty of motivation for the Royals to get back to the top and while the death of Yordano Ventura was a horrible tragedy, they will use that as a bonding tool. Kansas City added some talent in needed positions.

Why not bet the Royals: While the pick-ups were good, the losses outnumber those. Besides Ventura, the Royals lost another starter in Edinson Volquez but the big loss was close Wade Davis. The problem with Kansas City is that if it falls out of contention early, they have a number of players in contract years and they will be shipped out making the second half a time to just stay afloat.

Season win total pick: Over 75.5 Wins


Minnesota Twins (2016: 59-103, -3,129 units, 95-59-8 O/U)

Division odds: +2,900
Season win total: 74.5

Why bet the Twins: Minnesota went from 83 wins to 59 wins and it was the only 100-loss team in baseball so things cannot get much worse. The win total seems high but this team is much better than what transpired last season. The Twins are young but those youngsters are talented and if they can get some consistency with the starting rotation, they could be a pleasant surprise but contending in the division will not happen.

Why not bet the Twins: Surprisingly, the Twins tried to trade their best player in Brian Dozier but it did not go through. However, that does not mean he is off the trading block so a slow start could see him gone anyway. The ace of the starting rotation is Phil Hughes which shows how bad it is. The pitching finished with the worst ERA in the American League last year by over a half-run.

Season win total pick: Over 74.5 Wins

[Udog]

NL West Betting Preview: Dodgers and Giants lead a competitive pack

Age could be an issue in Los Angeles with just three members of the lineup younger than 29-years old which means injuries could become an issue.

The NL West is, once again, led by the Dodgers and Giants, however the race could become more competitive if the Rockies improve and become contenders. Arizona is still a step behind, while San Diego is perhaps the worst teams in the entire league.

Arizona Diamondbacks (2016: 69-93, -20.41 units, 89-67-6 O/U)

Division odds: +1800
Season win total: 78

Why bet the Diamondbacks: Zack Greinke is a legit ace despite having to pitch his home games in a very hitter friendly ballpark. Paul Goldschmidt hit .297 with 24 home runs and 95 RBI last year and the team has protection around him in the lineup with Jake Lamb and Yasmany Tomas who combined for 60 home runs and 174 RBI last season. The offense as a whole ranked fifth in runs scored in the National League last year.

Why not bet the Diamondbacks: They have a lot of question marks in the rotation with Shelby Miller, Archie Bradley and Taijuan Walker. The closer is Fernando Rodney who is not a long-term answer at 40-years old. The D-Backs ranked 30th in team ERA in 2016 and did not fix their pitching issues in the offseason. Injuries will also be an issue for a team that lacks depth.

Season win total pick: Under 78


Colorado Rockies (2016: 75-87, -8.42 units, 76-82-4 O/U)

Division odds: +1000
Season win total: 80.5

Why bet the Rockies: This offense ranked near the top in several categories last year and they have added Ian Desmond who should be big when he returns from injury. Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez are two of the most underrated young talents in the league. Jon Gray threw 185 strikeouts in just 168 innings last year and should improve with Bud Black as the manager. Greg Holland comes over from Kansas City and will be a boost to this bullpen.

Why not bet the Rockies: The rest of the rotation is very young and unproven. They have yet to find arms that can pitch consistently in the thin air and altitude of Coor's Field. The Rockies' bullpen lacks depth. The team struggles on the road and went just 33-48 away from home last year.

Season win total pick: Over 80.5


Los Angeles Dodgers (2016: 91-71, -6.37 units, 71-84-7 O/U)

Division odds: -200
Season win total: 94.5

Why bet the Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and he continues to rack up amazing numbers every season. Kenley Jansen is one of the best closers in the league and he has 180 saves over the past five years. Corey Seager was named Rookie of the Year last season and he should continue to improve with more experience. This team has a winning mindset and is looking for a championship.

Why not bet the Dodgers: Age is an issue here with just three members of the lineup younger than 29-years old which means injuries could become an issue. Rich Hill is 37-years old, while Brandon McCarthy is 34-years old and he had a weak 4.95 ERA in just 10 appearances last year. The top of the bullpen is strong, but there are several arms vying for the opportunity to be the bridge to Pedro Baez and Jansen.

Season win total pick: Under 94.5


San Francisco Giants (2016: 87-75, -7.54 units, 75-82-5 O/U)

Division odds: +230
Season win total: 88

Why bet the Giants: The rotation depth is very good when you have Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto on top of Matt Moore and Jeff Samardzija. San Francisco also filled their closer role with Mark Melancon after he pitched for Pittsburgh and Washington in 2016. Melancon had a 1.64 ERA combined for those two teams. The offensive lineup is deep with Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford leading the way.

Why not bet the Giants: Despite a veteran lineup, this team only hit .258 last season. San Francisco was one of the worst power teams with just 130 home runs. This squad is going to play a lot of low-scoring games which will put a strain on their pitchers. Left field is going to be a mix of Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker. The Giants must also compete in a very competitive National League.

Season win total pick: Over 88


San Diego Padres (2016: 68-94, -0.30 units, 80-77-5 O/U)

Division odds: +10000
Season win total: 66.5

Why bet the Padres: San Diego's young pitching staff will benefit from a very pitcher-friendly ballpark at Petco Park. Wil Myers played 157 games last year and had 28 home runs for a lineup that didn't provide a lot of protection. Luis Perdomo has better potential and ability than his 5.71 ERA in 20 starts showed. Carter Capps brings the heat and a very weird delivery that hitters have struggled with in the past.

Why not bet the Padres: This team is openly in sell mode and will probably get rid of their veterans by the trade deadline. Their perceived rotation is filled with washed up veterans and unproven youth. Christian Friedrich is the "ace" and he went 5-12 with a 4.80 ERA in 2016. There is talk of piggybacking starters and having pitchers go just four or five innings instead of deeper into ballgames this year.

Season win total pick: Under 66.5

[Udog]

AL West Betting Preview and odds: Is it finally the Astros year?

Can the Astros win their first division title since 2001? They are the +120 faves to claim the AL West crown.

Can this young and exciting Astros squad take the next step and win their first division title since 2001? They're the favorite, but the incumbent Rangers and a much improved Mariners team will have their say.

Matt Fargo breaks down the American League West Division odds and give you his regular season win total picks:

Houston Astros (2016: 84-78, -935 units, 73-81-8 O/U)

Division odds: +120
Season win total: 91.5

Why bet the Astros: The Astros have a very explosive offense led by Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer and added some extra pop with Brian McCann, Josh Reddick and Carlos Beltran. The rotation had a surprisingly poor year as the top guys Dallas Keuchel and Colin McHugh were major disappointments but they should get back on track this season. Houston knows how to win, proven in 2015, so it can get back into the hunt.

Why not bet the Astros: While the rotation is prime for a resurgence, last season has to be a concern. Keuchel went from Cy Young to a 4.55 ERA and just nine wins while McHugh has seen his ERA go from 2.73 to 3.89 to 4.34 the last three years. The bullpen ERA of 3.56 was pretty solid but it was a closer-by-committee with Ken Giles coming into the season as the opening day closer. Holding off both Texas and Seattle will be tough.

Season win total pick: Under 91.5


Los Angeles Angels (2016: 74-88, -876 units, 69-83-10 O/U)

Division odds: +950
Season win total: 79.5

Why bet the Angels: Los Angeles can never be overlooked when Mike Trout is around but he does need help and the Angels surely hope Albert Pujols has a couple above average seasons left. They upgrades their defense which can keep them in games if the offense struggles again as a whole. Getting ace Garrett Richards back is huge and Matt Shoemaker was having a great season until he took a line drive to the head.

Why not bet the Angels: While Trout is awesome, he could not carry enough of the offense so there needs to be production elsewhere. The Angels win total has gone from 98 to 85 to 77 the last three years and most of that is due to the offense going backwards. Richards elected for rehab instead of Tommy John surgery so he could be vulnerable to injury again. The farm system is pretty bare giving them little trade opportunities.

Season win total pick: Under 79.5 Wins


Oakland Athletics (2016: 69-93, -1,544 units, 72-84-6 O/U)

Division odds: +2100
Season win total: 73.5

Why bet the Athletics: The A’s have had very poor back-to-back seasons but there is some hope going forward. Starting ace Sonny Gray had a down season but he had a few nagging injuries so he is ready to get back his normal form. The rotation as a whole is pretty solid while the bullpen should be much improved. The offense lacks firepower but the signings of Trevor Plouffe and Matt Joyce definitely help.

Why not bet the Athletics: The lack of a potent offense is a cause for concern. Oakland finished last season dead last in the American League in runs and a major uptick from that does not seem feasible. Gray saw his ERA more than double from 2015 and while the injuries are the main blame, staying healthy is a must. Sean Manaea had a solid season but after that, the rest of the rotation has a lot of questions.

Season win total pick: Over 73.5 Wins


Seattle Mariners (2016: 86-76, +69 units, 80-76-6 O/U)

Division odds: +265
Season win total: 85.5

Why bet the Mariners: Seattle improved by 10 games from 2015 and expectations are to bump that up more this season. The Mariners finished within 10 games of first place for the just the third time in 15 years and they led the division in run differential. They have a solid core on offense with Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager while starter Felix Hernandez is still very solid. The bullpen should be the most improved in the division.

Why not bet the Mariners: The window is closing on Seattle as their main core is getting old. Hernandez finished with a 3.82 ERA which was his highest since 2007 while Cruz and Cano are 36 and 34 respectively. Behind Hernandez is Hisashi Iwakuma who is very solid but is 36. After those two, the remainder of the rotation is weak. They overhauled a lot of their roster in the offseason so coming together as a team is a concern.

Season win total pick: Under 85.5 Wins


Texas Rangers (2016: 95-67, +2,932 units, 79-73-10 O/U)

Division odds: +265
Season win total: 84.5

Why bet the Rangers: Since August 13th, 2015 the Rangers have gone 127-84 which is one of the best marks in baseball. They have their sights set on a third straight division title buoyed by a potent offense and two great starters in Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish. The offense is balanced and possesses power as Texas finished fourth in the American League in runs scored. Finding arms at the bottom of the rotation could put them on top again.

Why not bet the Rangers: The Rangers went 36-11 in one-run games last season and coming close to matching that mark will be next to impossible. They were actually only +8 in run differential which is very average and pitching was to blame. Texas had the second-worst bullpen ERA in the American League at 4.40 and it used 11 different starting pitchers. The bullpen should be better but the starters are the huge concern.,

Season win total pick: Over 84.5 Wins