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**Udog** · 10-28-2016, 08:09 AM

Armadillo:Friday's six-pack

Some NFL trends to ponder on a Friday

— Arizona is 22-11-1 vs spread in last 34 non-divisional games.

— Buccaneers are 1-7 in last eight games as a home favorite.

— Detroit is 5-10 in its last 15 games against AFC teams.

— Denver is 20-9 vs spread in its last 29 divisional games.

— Cowboys are 7-19 as a home favorite vs NFC East teams.

— Minnesota covered 10 of its last 12 as a favorite.

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I’m looking for this weekend…….

13) Average total in Falcons’ games this year is 61.1; Packers were held to 14-16 in their two losses, scored 23+ in their wins. You do the math.

12) Don’t sleep on Navy-South Florida Friday night; Middies run the ball down your throat but USF has really good speed, so we’ll see. Tough to prepare for the Navy option game. Navy is also 24-10 as a road underdog.

11) Houston is 4-0 at home, 0-3 on the road; Texans have a short week after losing in Denver Monday night. Every Detroit game is close; they’re fun to watch. All seven Lion games were decided by 7 or less points.

10) TCU beat Texas Tech 55-52/82-28 last two years; not like the Red Raiders are any better on defense now, but Horned Frogs are lot younger- they struggled to beat Kansas 24-23 two weeks ago.

9) Jimmy Graham was a great player for the Saints, but in Seattle? Not so much. Seahawks are in the Superdome this week. Interesting game.

8) World Series visits Wrigley Field for first time since 1945. Teams split first two games in Cleveland. Schwarber sits; no DH in NL parks.

7) New England actually has a revenge motive this week in Buffalo. Bills blanked Patriots 16-0 in Week 4, the last game of the Jacoby Brissett era in Foxboro.

6) Baylor-Texas are not friendly rivals; lot of chirping goes back/forth on the recruiting trail. Unbeaten Bears might send Charlie Strong packing with a win in Austin.

5) Cleveland Browns signed QB Joe Callahan this week, who played college ball at D-III Wesley College in Delaware; he had been with Packers/Saints this year and if McCarthy/Payton have an interest in a QB, this kid may be pretty good. Browns have used six QBs in seven weeks, so not like the kid could be any worse.

4) Nebraska is unbeaten and a 9-point underdog in Madison, where they were smoked in last two visits. Badgers have played a very tough schedule so far.

3) Eagles-Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, with two rookie QB’s. Teams that were hot going into their bye week have stumbled a little coming out of the bye. This should be a good game.

2) Clemson-Florida State in Tallahassee is an ACC classic; Seminoles are thin on defense, but coming off a bye (which they badly needed) am curious to see how FSU does. Last time Clemson went to Tallahassee as the higher-rated team? 1989.

1) Huge trap game for the Vikings in Chicago Monday night, with Jay Cutler expected back for the Bears. Minnesota was sloppy (four turnovers) in Philly last week; need to right the ship.

**Udog** · 10-28-2016, 08:14 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 28

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CLEVELAND (102 - 69) at CHICAGO CUBS (111 - 62) - 8:05 PM
JOSH TOMLIN (R) vs. KYLE HENDRICKS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 32-9 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 39-15 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 35-14 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HENDRICKS is 27-13 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
HENDRICKS is 18-6 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 102-69 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-2 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in October games this season.
CLEVELAND is 23-5 (+17.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
CLEVELAND is 13-3 (+10.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
CLEVELAND is 96-65 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 72-40 (+19.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CLEVELAND is 8-2 (+7.8 Units) against the money line in playoff games this season.
CLEVELAND is 42-30 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 55-37 (+14.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TOMLIN is 21-10 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
TOMLIN is 11-5 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
TOMLIN is 20-10 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
TOMLIN is 20-8 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TOMLIN is 17-5 (+11.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 1599-1685 (-257.9 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 856-785 (-152.1 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 177-205 (-51.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1542-1598 (-232.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1176-1250 (-194.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 772-827 (-186.2 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 1-1 (+0.0 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

JOSH TOMLIN vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.

KYLE HENDRICKS vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
No recent starts.

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MLB
Short Sheet

Friday, October 28

Chicago Cubs at Cleveland, 8:05 PM ET
Tomlin: CHICAGO CUBS are 1-3 SU when playing in the 3rd game of a playoff series
Hendricks: CLEVELAND INDIANS are 13-3 SU when playing with a day off

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, October 28

Indians @ Cubs
Tomlin is 3-0, 2.50 in his last three starts, 2-0, 2.53 in two postseason starts. Cleveland won his last three road starts.

Lackey is 2-1, 3.79 in his last seven starts, 8-5, 3.26 in 22 postseason starts. Cubs won six of his last seven home starts.

Cubs are 8-4 in playoffs this year, 4-1 at home; they didn’t play the Indians this season. Obviously Chicago hasn’t been in World Series since 1945, Indians since 1997. Cleveland is 8-2 in playoffs, 3-1 on road.

Maddon is 25-26 as a playoff manager, 12-9 with Cubs. he lost 2008 World Series with Rays. Francona won World Series with Boston in 2004, 2007; he is 36-20 as a postseason manager.

MLB

Friday, October 28

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Trend Report
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8:08 PM
CLEVELAND vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
Cleveland is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Chi Cubs are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing Cleveland

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**Udog** · 10-28-2016, 08:38 AM

MLB

Friday, October 28

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Wrigley Field winds give this World Series team a big betting edge in Game 3
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The famed Chicago wind is expected to blow out to center field at 20 miles per hour (sustained) with gusts reaching as high as 40 miles per hour for Game 3 of the World Series.

With the 2016 World Series shifting back to Wrigley Field in Chicago for Game 3, the weather forecast for Friday night on the North Side has sent sports bettors clamoring for their stadium wind direction charts.

The current forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-60's when the Chicago Cubs host the Cleveland Indians in the first of a trio of games in Chicago. But when it comes to Wrigley Field weather, there's only one factor that gamblers care about: the wind. The famed Chicago wind is expected to blow out to center field at 20 miles per hour (sustained) with gusts reaching as high as 40 miles per hour.

While this news may be enough to tickle your Over urges, baseball bettors has to wait on this wager. The standard practice for Wrigley Field totals is for the Over/Under to remain off the board until late in the morning (ET) on game day. But since it's the World Series, books started leaking totals to the betting public Thursday afternoon, with CG Technology in Las Vegas opened the Over/Under at 7 runs while offshore markets played with a total between 7.5 and 8 runs.

Now that the sides and total are on the board at the sportsbook, baseball bettors can crunch the numbers and find out which team has the advantage for Game 3.

The Cubs are big favorites to take a 2-1 lead in the series with their moneyline odds ranging from -185 to -225 (depending on which sportsbook you use) with the buyback on the Indians ranging from +155 to +185.

When it comes to predicting baseball games played in windy conditions, the most important tool to the sports bettor is ground ball-to-fly ball ratio. With wind conditions like the ones bettors are expected to see at Wrigley Friday night, you should be looking at which team hits more fly balls and which pitcher allows less fly balls. This, of course, will mean more or less home runs.

Chicago starter Kyle Hendricks has been dynamite in 2016. He led the majors with a 2.13 ERA and also carried a 0.98 WHIP throughout the regular season. Cleveland pitcher Josh Tomlin had some very nice stretches for the Tribe, but his overall numbers were not great, posting a 4.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.19.

While there appears to already be a wide separation in the two starting pitchers based on regular pitching stats, that gap grows even larger when you dig into the numbers that will be impacted by a mighty wind blowing out in a small stadium.

Taking line drives out of the equation and focusing strictly on true fly balls, Hendricks was almost 50/50 this season - allowing 0.99 ground balls for every fly ball (260:263) but Tomlin proved to be much more reliant on the ball in the air with 0.81 ground balls for every fly ball (262:322).

More fly balls generally results in more home runs, right? Well, when you look at home runs allowed by each pitcher in relevant situations the comparable numbers are eye-popping. In his 16 road starts this season (regular season and playoffs), Tomlin has allowed 18 home runs to opposing hitters. In 17 starts at Wrigley Field by Hendricks in 2016, he has only allowed opposing hitters to go deep five times.

The Cubs generally hit more home runs than the Indians (211 to 198 in 2016) but thus far in the 2016 postseason, the Cubs' GB:FB rate is a staggering 0.59 ground balls for every fly ball. Fans of the team will complain that they've been popping up too often, but that will become very advantageous with Friday's expected weather conditions.

So, just to review: we have a very stiff wind blowing out, a fly-ball pitcher who is prone to giving up home runs starting for the Indians, a sinker-ball pitcher who rarely gives up home runs starting for the Cubs, a team who generally relies more on "small ball" to score runs in the Indians, and a team that loves to hit the ball in the air and thrives off home runs in the Cubs.

Good luck and enjoy the World Series - Wrigley style.

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**Udog** · 10-28-2016, 09:27 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 28

Cleveland @ Chicago Cubs

Game 901-902
October 28, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
(Tomlin) 13.327
Chicago Cubs
(Hendrcks) 14.662
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-205
8
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-205); Under

**Udog** · 10-28-2016, 12:18 PM

MLB

Friday, October 28

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World Series Game 3 Betting Preview: Indians at Cubs
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The Cubs are big favorites to win the first World Series game at Wrigley Field in 71 years.

Cleveland Indians at Chicago Cubs (-188, 8)

Series tied 1-1

The best starting pitcher led his team to victory in each of the first two games of the World Series with each team laying claim to the better ace once. The Chicago Cubs try to gain control of the series when they host the Cleveland Indians on Friday in the first World Series game at Wrigley Field since 1945.

Corey Kluber set a World Series record with eight strikeouts in the first three innings en route to a 6-0 Indians win in Tuesday's opener and Jake Arrieta took a no-hitter into the sixth Wednesday as the Cubs knotted the series at one win apiece with a 5-1 triumph. The most impressive offensive player in the first two games of the series won't even have a spot in the starting lineup for the next three contests as Chicago will leave Kyle Schwarber on the bench with a pinch-hitting role in the National League park. Schwarber, who sat out all but two games of the regular season after tearing ligaments in his knee in April, was added to the World Series roster and went 3-for-7 with a pair of RBIs and a run scored while serving as designated hitter in the Amercian League park."There's no being sad about it," Schwarber told reporters after it was announced Thursday that he was not medically cleared by doctors to play the field. "There's no nothing. I know my role, now, and I'm going to embrace it."

TV: 8:08 p.m. ET, FOX

LINE HISTORY: The Cubs opened the first World Series game at Wrigly Field in 71 years as -185 favorites and have been bet up slightly to -188. The total for Game 3 has been set at 8. Check out the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The Windy City is going to live up to its name for Game 3. Hitters wil be getting a boost with winds blowing between 17 and 20 miles per hour out to right-center field. Temperatures will hover around the low 60's for the game.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Indians RH Josh Tomlin (2-0, 2.53 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Kyle Hendricks (1-1, 1.65)

Tomlin delivered exactly what was asked of him in each of his first two postseason starts, allowing a total of three runs in 10 2/3 innings before handing things off to the team's dominant bullpen. The 32-year-old Texan served up 36 home runs in 174 innings during the regular season but has yet to yield a home run in the playoffs. Tomlin, who has never faced Chicago, was 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three interleague starts this season.

Hendricks outdueled Clayton Kershaw in the clinching game of the NLCS, scattering two hits and no walks over 7 1/3 scoreless innings while striking out six. Hendricks, the major-league ERA leader at 2.13, surrendered one run over 12 2/3 innings in two NLCS starts and went 9-2 with a 1.32 ERA at home during the regular season. The Dartmouth product, who is seeing Cleveland for the first time, was 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in three interleague starts this season.

TRENDS:

* Indians are 6-1 in their last seven road games.
* Cubs are 4-1 in their last five playoff home games.
* Under is 10-1-1 in Indians' last 12 overall.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Hendricks' last five home starts.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are strongly behind the Cubs in Game 3, with 69 percent of wagers backing Chicago. When it comes to the total, 56 percent of wagers on are the Under.

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**Udog** · 10-28-2016, 12:36 PM

MLB

Friday, October 28

Game 3 weather update: Wind still expected to be constant out to right-center at 17-20 mph with gusts hitting 40 mph. O/U 8.0

Announcement

Friday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/28

Friday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/28

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