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**Udog** · 10-17-2016, 07:31 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in this week’s Westgate Super Contest:

1) Chiefs (even) 704- W

2) Seahawks (-6.5) 450- L

3) Packers (-4.5) 448- L

4) Texans (-3) 424- T

5) Eagles (-2.5) 410- L

6) Falcons +6.5 (404)– W

Season record: 11-24-1

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Patriots 35, Bengals 17— New England averaged 9.6, 9.4 yds/pass attempt in Brady’s first two games back; only 10 their 61 plays in this game came on 3rd down. Cincinnati has lost four of its last five games, allowed 8 TDs on foes’ last 16 drives.

Titans 28, Browns 26— Bad beat if you laid 7.5 with Tennessee; Browns scored 13 points in last 2:07 to cover spread, as they fall to 0-6 SU (3-3 vs spread). Titans averaged 10.4 yards/pass attempt, best in league so far this week. Browns went 3/out seven times, scored the other five times (three TD, two FG) they had the ball.

Giants 27, Ravens 23— All six Raven games were decided by 6 or less points. Baltimore scored with 2:04 left to take lead, but neglected to cover Beckham (DB fell down) on a 4th-and-1 a few minutes later and he went 66 yards for GW TD. Beckham caught eight balls for 222 yards and two TDs.

Lions 31, Rams 28— All six Detroit games were decided by 7 or less points; their three home games were decided by a total of five points.

Bills 45, 49ers 16— When Buffalo fired their OC after Week 2, they said they wanted to run the ball more; Bills won their fourth straight game here, running ball 44 times for 312 yards- they converted 8-13 on 3rd down, have outscored last three opponents 45-9 in second half.

Saints 41, Panthers 38— New Orleans led 21-0 with 4:00 left in first half, but Carolina tied game with 2:58 left in game, before Saints hit 52-yard FG with 0:11 left for the win. Saints won their last two games, despite allowing 72 points in those games- they’ve allowed 34+ points in four of five games. Defending NFC champs are 1-5.

Redskins 27, Eagles 20— Philly scored two TDs, one on the NFL’s first TD on a kick return this year, then the defense scored one, but the Eagle offense ran 45 plays for 239 yards; they had 114 yards in penalties, no TDs, as Washington had 67-45 edge in plays run. Yardage here was 493-239. Redskins, like Buffalo, have now won four in a row after an 0-2 start.

Dolphins 30, Steelers 15— Miami was +2 in turnovers, had 14-yard edge in field position and beat Pittsburgh for just second time in last seven meetings, first time at home since 1998. Yardage was 474-297 Miami; after the game, Steelers said Roethlisberger will have an MRI on his knee, which would make Landry Jones the starter next week.

Jaguars 17, Bears 16— Chicago was in red zone four times, but scored only one TD; they led 13-0 after three quarters, but left door open for Jaguars, who hit a 51-yard TD pass with 2:49 left for a stunning comeback win. Bears were +2 in turnovers but had 10 penalties for 87 yards.

Chiefs 26, Raiders 10— Andy Reid is now 16-2 SU off a bye week, 12-4 vs spread in last 16 post-bye games; his Chiefs ran ball for 183 yards on a rainy day in Oakland. KC has now won six of last seven games against its arch-rival, winning four of last six visits to Oakland.

Cowboys 30, Packers 16— Its none of my business, but Dak Prescott has to stay the starting QB in Dallas, as long as they keep playing like this- they waxed the Packers on the day when Brett Favre got his Hall of Fame ring. Cowboys won/covered five games in a row with a rookie QB drafted in the fourth round. Highly unlikely story.

Seahawks 27, Falcons 26— Refs swallowed their whistle on Falcons’ last gasp pass to Julio Jones— Sherman grabbed his arm, no flag was thrown. Seattle led 17-3 at the half, but Atlanta stormed back and had ball around midfield up 24-23 with 4:00 left, before Ryan threw a pick that turned game in Seahawks’ favor. Falcons gained 269 yards in this game, just in the third quarter. These teams could meet again in January.

Texans 26, Colts 23 OT– Indy led 23-9 with under 4:00 left, then Texans came alive and Osweiler gets a big win, keeping Houston alone in first in AFC South. Next week the Texans head to Denver, Osweiler’s homecoming after he bolted the Broncos last winter. Bad loss for Indy, just a game you cannot lose, being up 14 points in last 4:00.

**Udog** · 10-17-2016, 07:42 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Monday, October 17

Cleveland @ Toronto

Game 951-952
October 17, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
(Bauer) 13.634
Toronto
(Stroman) 15.856
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-185
9
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-185); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 17

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CLEVELAND (99 - 67) at TORONTO (93 - 75) - 8:05 PM
TREVOR BAUER (R) vs. MARCUS STROMAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 15-23 (-14.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-21 (-13.6 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 99-67 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-0 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in October games this season.
CLEVELAND is 100-75 (+40.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Monday since 1997.
CLEVELAND is 70-39 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CLEVELAND is 27-11 (+14.9 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
CLEVELAND is 52-35 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TORONTO is 93-75 (-7.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TORONTO is 55-48 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
STROMAN is 15-18 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
STROMAN is 6-10 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
STROMAN is 3-9 (-10.5 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 6-3 (+3.2 Units) against TORONTO this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.8 Units)

TREVOR BAUER vs. TORONTO since 1997
BAUER is 0-1 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 8.57 and a WHIP of 1.757.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)

MARCUS STROMAN vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
STROMAN is 0-0 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.4 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 17

Indians @ Blue Jays
Bauer hurt a finger on his pitching hand fixing a drone (???), was pushed back to here; he is 1-2, 6.75 in his last five starts— he allowed three runs in 4.2 IP in his first postseason start. Bauer is 1-0, 1.38 in two starts vs Toronto this year; he struck out 13 Jays in 8 IP In his last start against them. Indians lost four of his last six road starts.

Stroman is 0-2, 2.77 in his last four starts, 0-0, 1.29 in two starts (14 IP) vs Cleveland this year. Blue Jays won six of his last eight home starts. He is 1-0, 3.91 in four postseason starts.

Toronto had won six in row before losing Games 1-2 in Cleveland; they’re 3-5 against the Indians this year. Gibbons is 9-8 as a postseason manager, making it this year and last, his 8th/9th years as a manager. Jays lost in this round LY, their first playoff spot since their last world title, in 1993.

Cleveland won its last eight games; they’re in playoffs for 3rd time in last 15 years. Tribe was last in World Series in ’97; their last world title was in 1948. Francona won couple of World Series in Boston; he is 32-18 as a postseason manager.

MLB

Monday, October 17

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Trend Report
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8:08 PM
CLEVELAND vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Toronto's last 22 games

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**Udog** · 10-17-2016, 04:01 PM

MLB

Monday, October 17

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Monday's ALCS Game 3 Betting Preview: Indians at Blue Jays
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Marcus Stroman has a 1.29 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in two starts versus Cleveland this season.

Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays (-173, 8.5)

Indians lead series 2-0

The Toronto Blue Jays probably will need to put a ball in play against Andrew Miller at some point to have a chance in the American League Championship Series. The Blue Jays will attempt to grab the momentum and avoid falling into a deep hole when they host the Cleveland Indians in Game 3 on Monday.

Miller was the star of the Indians' AL Division Series sweep of Boston as he recorded seven strikeouts in four scoreless innings and was even better in the first two games of the ALCS, fanning 10 batters and yielding one hit in 3 2/3 scoreless frames of relief as Cleveland seized control and took a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series. "Same cliché, pitch by pitch," Miller told reporters when asked about his playoff success. "Just focus on the task at hand. Try to get ahead, try to execute a good pitch to the game plan. In a sense, hope you get these guys out. They're so good. You can execute the perfect pitch in your mind and they can hit it a long ways." Toronto pounded out 22 runs in their three-game sweep of Texas in the ALDS but has managed one run in two contests against an Indians staff that is missing two of its best starters in Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. "I know one thing, they pitched great," Blue Jays manager John Gibbons told reporters. "I wouldn't dare take anything from them, that's for sure."

TV: 8:08 p.m. ET, TBS, Sportsnet (Toronto)

LINE HISTORY: The Blue Jays opened Game 3 as -185 faves and have been bet down to -173. The total hit the board at 9 and there has been enough under money to bring the number down to 8.5 runs. Check out the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Indoors.

SHARPS SAY: "Toronto's Marcus Stroman was fantastic in his two career starts against the Indians this season with a 1.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Meanwhile, Cleveland's Trevor Bauer has struggled with a 8.57 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his three career starts versus the Blue Jays the past two years.

"Toronto definitely owns the pitching advantage in this game, but the price is too inflated. My numbers make the Blue Jays just a -135 favorite, so despite a distinctive pitching edge and must-win situation, there is no value with Toronto in this game."

PITCHING MATCHUP: Indians RH Trevor Bauer (0-0, 5.79 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (0-0, 3.00)

Bauer was the first to benefit from the dominance of Miller, who came on in the fifth inning of the ALDS in relief and earned the win. Bauer was scheduled to start Game 2 against Toronto before cutting his finger while repairing his drone and was pushed back to allow the pinky on his pitching hand to heal. The UCLA product enjoyed one of his best starts against Toronto on Aug. 19, when he allowed two runs in eight innings and struck out a career-high 13.

Stroman, who held Baltimore to two runs and four hits over six innings in his ALDS start, has not earned a victory since Aug. 14. The Duke product allowed three or fewer runs in seven of his last nine starts but could not get enough help from his teammates to land in the win column. The first of those nine turns came at Cleveland on Aug. 21, when Stroman struck out nine and yielded one run in 7 1/3 innings but was held out of the decision.

TRENDS:

* Indians are 8-0 in their last eight overall.
* Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last six playoff home games.
* Over is 6-0-1 in Bauer's last seven starts overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Stroman's last six starts overall.

CONSENSUS: Bettors like Toronto to defend home field in Game 3, with 65 percent of wagers on the Blue Jays. As for the total, the public likes the Under with 58 percent of wagers on it.

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Announcement

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/17

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/17

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