Announcement

**Udog** · 10-13-2016, 08:22 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

— Ottawa 5, Toronto 4 OT– Auston Matthews scored all of Leafs’ goals; if you have him in fantasy, you’re pretty bleepin’ happy today.

— Matthews is 5th player ever with a hat trick in his first game, first player ever with four goals in his debut.

— Former Baylor coach Art Briles is working with the Browns’ offense in Cleveland as a consultant. Browns have three former Baylor players.

— Cam Newton returned to practice in Carolina, good news for them.

— Best part of Cubs’ run is seeing 87-year old comedian Bob Newhart post pics of himself on Twitter “hoisting the W” after every Cubs win. Newhart’s great TV show in the 70’s was set in Chicago.

— Lot of recruiting sites that rate HS prospects are full of it; Denzel Valentine is in the NBA now, was a great player at Michigan State. As a high school senior, he was listed as the country’s #129 prospect. Oy.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Excerpts from an article that I think is important…….

Warriors’ coach Steve Kerr put a Washington Post article up on Twitter last night which is very interesting; it deals with how (intentionally or not) Donald Trump has exposed a problem with our country’s tax codes. This article was written by Fareed Zakaria.

I’m posting the excerpts from this article because I learned a lot from it, about how basically corrupt our entire system is in this country and how our “leaders” damn sure better fix it pretty soon.

“Donald Trump has done America a great public service. No, really. By taking advantage of the country’s tax laws in such spectacular fashion, he has shone a spotlight on the corruption that is at the heart of American politics — the tax code……..

……….The problem with American taxes is something different: their complexity. The United States has the world’s longest tax code. The scholar Sean Ehrlich tabulated its word count at 3,866,392. Germany and France have codes that are less than 10 percent as long…….

………The complexity of the tax code exists by design, because it allows for the distinctive feature of the American political system: fundraising……..

America is unique among democracies in requiring, at all levels of politics, that vast amounts of cash be raised from the private sector. In order to get this money, senators and members of Congress need something to offer in return, and what they sell are amendments to the tax code. When you pay $5,000 to have a stale breakfast with a congressman, you are not paying for his insights or personality. You and others like you are buying a line of the code, which is why it is thousands of pages long. This is the world’s ultimate “pay for play” setup.

There are only two ways to fix this problem. One would be to stop people from paying politicians. But the Supreme Court ruled in Buckley v. Valeo in 1976 that money is speech and thus constitutionally protected. (As far as I know, this is a view shared by no other Western democracy.) That leaves another path — take away what Congress sells. If the tax code were to be made short and simple, with a handful of deductions, politicians would have little to offer people as a quid pro quo. You could still pay them, for their ideas and personality, but I suspect that the flow of money would slow to a trickle. It is the simple, single solution to the cancer in American politics. And we could thank Donald Trump for highlighting it.”

**Udog** · 10-13-2016, 08:24 AM

MLB

Thursday, October 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NLDS Game 5 Betting Preview: Dodgers at Nationals
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"This will probably be the biggest start of my career. I've said that a few times in my life, but I think this will be it." - Max Scherzer.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals (-155, 7)

Series tied 2-2

Max Scherzer has problems keeping the ball inside the ballpark and the Washington Nationals are hoping that won't be an issue in Thursday's decisive Game 5 of the National League Division Series against the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers. Scherzer served up a career-worst 31 homers in the regular season and was taken deep by Corey Seager and Justin Turner in Los Angeles' 4-3 victory in Game 1.

Scherzer is aware the Nationals have never won a playoff series since relocating from Montreal and he didn't sidestep away from the importance. "This will probably be the biggest start of my career," Scherzer told reporters. "I've said that a few times in my life, but I think this will be it. You're going to get the absolute best out of everybody on both teams." The Dodgers are looking to reach the NL Championship Series for the second time in four seasons and are expected to turn to veteran left-hander Rich Hill. Los Angeles first baseman Adrian Gonzalez hit a two-run shot in Tuesday's 6-5 victory - his only homer and RBIs in the series.

TV: 8:08 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

WEATHER REPORT: Conditions at Nationals Park will be clear and cool (game-time temperatures in the low 60's). There is a 10 percent chance of a shower rolling through early in the evening and the humidity level will be at 80 percent.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Dodgers used their ace, Clayton Kershaw, on just three days rest in Game 4. Now Los Angeles will have to use Rich Hill on three days rest in Game 5. Meanwhile, the Nationals saved their ace Max Scherzer for Game 5 which means he is pitching on five days of rest. While Scherzer will be fresh, the Dodgers have been a much stronger offensive team versus right-handed pitchers this season, averaging 5.0 runs per nine innings with a .261 batting average, compared to just 3.5 runs and .210 versus LHP."

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers LH Rich Hill (12-5, 2.12 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Max Scherzer (20-7, 2.96)

Hill is expected to start the contest but manager Dave Roberts asserted that 20-year-old rookie Julio Urias is also part of the Game 5 pitching plan. "I think that we talked about Rich as an option, obviously, but so is Julio and how we want to strategize to win Game 5," Roberts said at a press conference. "We're going to talk through it but it's nice now that we didn't have to go to Julio (in Game 4), so he's certainly an option." Hill lasted just 4 1/3 innings while losing Game 2, and he gave up four runs and six hits while striking out seven.

Scherzer allowed four runs and five hits in six innings while losing against Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw in Game 1. The NL Cy Young award candidate expects another raucous atmosphere with the NLCS berth awaiting the winner. "If it's anything like Game 1, it's going to be such a thrill," Scherzer said. "Game 1 was unbelievable there in D.C. The fans were just going nuts from the first pitch. So the fact that it's going to be Game 5, I mean, our fans really brought it in Game 1, so I can only imagine the atmosphere going into Game 5."

TRENDS:

* Dodgers are 2-8 in their last 10 playoff road games.
* Dodgers are 0-4 in Hill's last 4 starts.
* Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a loss.
* Nationals are 5-0 in Scherzer's last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Hill's last 7 starts overall.
* Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in Kellogg's last 10 games behind home plate.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning heavily toward Max Scherzer and the home favorite Washington Nationals at 70 percent. In totals action, Over 7 is seeing 70 percent of the wagers.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-13-2016, 08:33 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA DODGERS (93 - 73) at WASHINGTON (97 - 69) - 8:05 PM
RICH HILL (L) vs. MAX SCHERZER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 93-73 (-6.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 39-44 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
LA DODGERS are 7-12 (-10.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
LA DODGERS are 90-71 (-8.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
LA DODGERS are 64-55 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
LA DODGERS are 60-65 (-27.0 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 49-42 (-6.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
LA DODGERS are 31-39 (-12.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 180-148 (-18.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 179-147 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 114-99 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 76-71 (-12.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 7-3 (+4.2 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.1 Units)

RICH HILL vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
HILL is 1-2 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 5.32 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.2 units)

MAX SCHERZER vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
SCHERZER is 2-5 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.144.
His team's record is 2-7 (-4.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-1. (+4.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB
Short Sheet

Thursday, October 13

LA Dodgers at Washington, 8:05 PM ET
Hill: LA DODGERS are 9-14 SU after a one run win
Scherzer: WASHINGTON is 26-11 OVER in home games against left-handed starters-handed starters

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, October 13

Dodgers @ Nationals

Hill is 0-3, 5.03 in his last four starts, he allowed four runs in 4.1 IP against Nationals earlier this series, his only start vs Washington this season and is 0-2, 8.59 in two career postseason starts, which were nine years apart. Dodgers are 1-3 in his road starts.

Scherzer is 4-1, 4.70 in his last six starts; he allowed four runs in six IP in losing Game 1 of this series, his only start against the Dodgers this year. He is 4-4, 3.93 in 11 career playoff starts. Nationals won four of his last five home starts.

Dodgers are in playoffs for 4th year in a row- their last World Series title was in 1988. LA is 7-3 vs Washington this season; they’re 2-7 in last nine road games. Nationals are 8-5 in last 13 games, 5-4 in last nine at home- they’re in playoffs for third time in last five years.

Roberts is a rookie manager. Baker is 22-27 as postseason manager; he won NL pennant is 2002 with the Giants.

MLB

Thursday, October 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:08 PM
LA DODGERS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing LA Dodgers
Washington is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-13-2016, 10:07 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, October 13

LA Dodgers @ Washington

Game 961-962
October 13, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Hill) 13.044
Washington
(Scherzer) 16.269
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-150
7
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-150); Under

Announcement

Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/13

Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/13

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment