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**Udog** · 10-06-2016, 08:09 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Six more NFL trends to ponder, with Week 5 coming up……..

— Baltimore is 2-12-2 in last 16 games as a favorite.

— Bengals are 30-18-5 in last 43 games against NFC teams.

— Dolphins are 2-9 vs spread in their last 11 games.

— Carolina is 11-3 in last 14 games as a divisional home favorite.

— Steelers covered seven of their last nine games.

— Falcons covered eight of last nine as an underdog.

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud

13) Former NBA coach Hubie Brown is 83 years old, still very sharp; he’s back on ESPN this year covering games. You can learn a lot listening to him.

Flashback to October, 1984: Knicks-Bulls have preseason game in Glens Falls on a Monday night (snowed like hell at Packers-Broncos game that night). I’m working midnight-to-8 at the time, so during the day, my friend Paul and I drive 45 miles north and walk into the Glens Falls Civic Center just before the Knicks start their walk-thru practice.

No one kicks us out, so while Hubie Brown is running practice, the two of us are sitting at the end of the bench; when I stretch my legs, my feet are actually on the court. Pretty good Monday afternoon for us; that night, we watched a Chicago rookie named Michael Jordan play.

After the practice, I talked to both coach Brown and Bernard King, the Knicks’ star- they couldn’t have been nicer to me. That night, Jordan wore the original red/black Air Jordans that were later banned by the league, for a reason that I’ve long ago forgotten.

12) Then there is Hawk Harrelson, who at age 75, still works half the White Sox games- he does the road games. He is tough to listen to, rooting like hell for the Sox while preaching old-style philosophies and dismissing a lot of modern ideas.

On his Twitter page, it says: “hater of sabermetrics”. How can you hate something that helps you understand stuff better? Maybe you can disagree with how much it is used or the dismissal of traditional scouting techniques, but there is a middle road there that needs to be travelled.

To hate sabermetrics is to dismiss knowledge that can help us learn things. Knowledge is good. Hating knowledge is ignorant.

11) Oklahoma City Thunder are in Spain this week; they lost to Real Madrid the other day, then beat Barcelona by 3 yesterday. European basketball is very good, a higher quality than Division I college ball in this country- the players are lot older. Thunder didn’t go all out to win; Westbrook sat in 4th quarter of both games, but was surprising to see two games with such close scores.

10) Minnesota Vikings are on a 17-2 spread run, 4-0 this year; they’re +10 in turnovers this year, even with a QB playing who wasn’t on the team ten days before their season started.

9) New York Giants have only one takeaway in four games, have a -8 turnover ratio; how they deal with Odell Beckham going forward will be interesting to watch.

When Tom Coughlin backed away from disciplining Beckham during the Carolina game LY, it was a red flag; Coughlin had a reputation as a discipline guy. New coach Ben McAdoo seems less likely to pick that battle to fight.

8) Jesse Palmer told a story on TV Saturday night about when he played at Florida, a bunch of Gator players met Arnold Palmer at a social gathering before Florida’s bowl game in Orlando.

According to Jesse Palmer, Arnold Palmer said to the players, “You guys are are probably going to win, but no way will you cover (the point spread)”. Jesse Palmer actually asked Brent Musberger if he should tell the story on the air; since their game was a blowout, he did.

By the way, Florida won by 15, covering as a 13.5-point favorite.

7) Toronto catcher Russell Martin has played for four major league teams and has been in the playoffs nine times in his 11 major league seasons.

6) Tuesday night was Marcus Stroman’s 60th major league start; it was only the second time in those 60 starts that he retired the first nine hitters in order.

5) Blue Jays are 26-33 this season in games where the game-winning run scored after the sixth inning; those 59 games are six more than any other team has played. Twins/White Sox played in next-highest amount (53).

4) Monmouth Hawks upgraded their basketball schedule this year, after they missed out on an at-large bid to the NCAAs last year. Games against North Carolina, Memphis, South Carolina and Syracuse won’t help their W-L record, but should toughen them up for MAAC games and increase their strength of schedule. MAAC also-rans don’t often get at-large bids.

3) **** of America in Minneapolis, our country’s biggest ****, will be closed Thanksgiving Day, so employees can have the day off. Good for them.

2) Blue Jays 5, Orioles 2 (11)— Buck Showalter got thrashed on social media for not using his closer Britton in this game; My thing is this— Showalter performed a near-miracle getting the Orioles into the playoffs. Their starting pitching just isn’t that good, but he got them to the Wild Card game. He is a tremendous manager

For me to criticize the way he runs his team would take a lot of onions— no thanks.

1– Giants 3, Mets 0– One of the great things about postseason baseball is that obscure players become heroes with one swing of the bat. Conor Gillespie is a career .256 hitter with 31 HRs in 1,334 plate appearances in seven years; his 3-run homer in the ninth inning moves the Giants on to Chicago for the NLDS against the Cubs, which begins Friday.

**Udog** · 10-06-2016, 08:16 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 6

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BOSTON (93 - 69) at CLEVELAND (94 - 67) - 8:05 PM
RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 242-245 (-32.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 149-137 (-12.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 50-25 (+17.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CLEVELAND is 26-9 (+11.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CLEVELAND is 67-39 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BOSTON is 36-19 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
BOSTON is 38-24 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
PORCELLO is 25-8 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
PORCELLO is 21-6 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
PORCELLO is 17-6 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 166-142 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 90-83 (-12.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 4-2 (+2.1 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.5 Units)

RICK PORCELLO vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
PORCELLO is 10-4 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.35 and a WHIP of 1.287.
His team's record is 14-8 (+5.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-14. (-6.6 units)

TREVOR BAUER vs. BOSTON since 1997
BAUER is 0-2 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 12.14 and a WHIP of 2.549.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

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TORONTO (90 - 73) at TEXAS (95 - 67) - 4:35 PM
J.A. HAPP (L) vs. COLE HAMELS (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 3-4 (+0.3 Units) against TORONTO this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

J.A. HAPP vs. TEXAS since 1997
HAPP is 3-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.07 and a WHIP of 1.125.
His team's record is 3-2 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-2. (+0.8 units)

COLE HAMELS vs. TORONTO since 1997
HAMELS is 0-3 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 5.29 and a WHIP of 1.529.
His team's record is 1-5 (-5.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-4. (-2.4 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, October 6

Blue Jays @ Rangers
Hamels is 1-0, 4.50 in his last four starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight starts. Texas is 12-3 in his home starts. Hamels didn’t face Toronto this season.

Blue Jays ousted Texas 3-2 from playoffs LY, after Rangers won first two series games. Road team won four of those five games. Jays are 4-3 against Texas this year- they won Wild Card game on 11th-inning walkout HR Tuesday night. Toronto won its last three games, is 9-5 in its last 14. Rangers went 7-5 in last 12 games, coasting to AL West title.

Jays are in playoffs for second year in row, only times they’ve made it since 1993. Texas is in for fifth time in last seven years- they’ve never won a World Series.

Red Sox vs Indians
Porcello is 5-1, 2.86 in his last seven starts; three of his last four stayed under. Boston is 9-7 in his road starts starts. Porcello allowed two runs in 5.2 IP (115 PT) in 5-2 win over Cleveland May 22 at Fenway. Bauer is 1-2, 6.93 in his last four starts; over is 5-0-1 in his last six starts. indians won six of his last seven home starts. Bauer allowed four runs in five IP (98 PT) in 9-1 loss at Fenway May 21.

Red Sox are in playoffs for just second time in last seven years; they’re 4-2 vs Cleveland this year; they lost five of last six games overall, which followed their 11-game win streak. Indians are in playoffs for just third time since 2001; they’re 8-4 in last 12 games overall.

Obvious subplot here is that Francona is manager who ended Boston’s decades-long championship drought when he won 2004 World Series, then won again with Sox in ‘07.

MLB

Thursday, October 6

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Trend Report
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4:38 PM
TORONTO vs. TEXAS
Toronto is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Texas's last 15 games when playing at home against Toronto
Texas is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Toronto

8:08 PM
BOSTON vs. CLEVELAND
Boston is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Boston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

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**Udog** · 10-06-2016, 10:05 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, October 6

Toronto @ Texas

Game 937-938
October 6, 2016 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
(Estrada) 16.389
Texas
(Hamels) 14.554
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas
-145
9
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+125); Over

Boston @ Cleveland

Game 935-936
October 6, 2016 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
(Porcello) 16.402
Cleveland
(Bauer) 14.953
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-140
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-140); Under

**Udog** · 10-06-2016, 01:17 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Thursday, October 6

Boston at Cleveland, 8:05 PM ET
Porcello: BOSTON is 21-35 SU after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less
Bauer: CLEVELAND is 42-16 SU at home when the total is 7 to 8.5

Toronto at Texas, 4:35 PM ET
Estrada: TORONTO is 2-18 SU as a road underdog of +125 to +150
Hamels: TEXAS is 35-19 SU after 3 or more consecutive home games

**Udog** · 10-06-2016, 01:30 PM

MLB

Thursday, October 6

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Thursday's ALDS Betting Preview: Blue Jays at Rangers & Red Sox at Indians
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Both ALDS matchups are filled with intriguing storylines as the first pitches go Friday.

Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (-135, 9)

Series tied 0-0

The Texas Rangers and the Toronto Blue Jays don't like each other very much and aren't afraid to show it on the field. Both teams try to keep their emotions in check when they meet in the American League Division Series for the second straight season, with the top-seeded Rangers hosting Game 1 on Thursday.

The Blue Jays battled back from a 2-0 deficit to win the series in five games last October, capped off by a memorable bat flip by Jose Bautista after a go-ahead home run in Game 5. Bautista was hit by a pitch the final time the teams faced off during the regular season May 15 and went hard into second base attempting a takeout slide against Rougned Odor, who took exception and knocked Bautista back with a hard right hand to kick off one of the more vicious benches-clearing incidents across the majors this season. "I expect it to be a good game, good series," Toronto third baseman Josh Donaldson told ESPN after the Blue Jays' wild- card victory over Baltimore on Tuesday. "Two quality teams going at each other. Hopefully all that stuff's put in the past and we go out there and play great baseball." The Blue Jays got a walk-off, three-run homer from Edwin Encarnacion in the 11th inning Tuesday to take out the Baltimore Orioles in the wild-card game and head into the ALDS with momentum.

TV: 4:38 p.m. ET, TBS, Sportsnet (Toronto)

LINE HISTORY: The Rangers open Game 1 as -140 favorites and were bet up ever so slightly to -141. Since then, the line has come back on the Jays, currently sitting at Rangers -135. The total for this game was pegged at 9. Check out the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: There is a slight chance of thunderstorms in the area, but otherwise temperatures will be in the high 80's. It should be noted there is an expected pitchers wind gusting in from right field at seven to nine miles per hour.

INJURY REPORT:

Blue Jays - C R. Martin (probable Thursday, finger), CP R. Osuna (doubtful Thursday, shoulder), RP J. Benoit (out indefinitely, calf).

Rangers - 2B R. Odor (probable Thursday, shin).

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We haven't posted a line for the Toronto-Texas series because we don't know who is pitching yet. Perhaps baseball should enact a listed starting pitcher rule, at least during the postseason."

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Toronto heads to Texas off an emotional home win on Tuesday night, so the Blue Jays are in a difficult scheduling spot. Texas also holds a slight pitching edge with Cole Hamels against Marco Estrada. However, the Blue Jays were actually the better team this season and had a 91-71 X_WL record (expected won-loss based on run margin), while the Rangers were just 82-80 X_WL. The reason the Rangers had a better real won/loss record is because they were 36-11 in games decided by exactly one run this season, while Toronto was just 21-25."

PITCHING MATCHUP: Blue Jays RH Marco Estrada (9-9, 3.48 ERA) vs. Rangers LH Cole Hamels (15-5, 3.32 ERA)

Estrada was strong down the stretch, allowing a total of two runs in 19 innings over his final three turns, to bounce back from a rough stretch over the previous month. The 33-year-old Californian did some of his best work in the playoffs last season with a 2-1 record and a 2.33 ERA in three starts to go along with 15 strikeouts and one walk. One of those wins came at Texas, where Estrada breezed through 6 1/3 innings on one run and five hits to help Toronto avoid elimination in Game 3.

The Rangers try to take a commanding lead in the series by throwing aces Hamels and Yu Darvish in the first two games, with Hamels getting the nod in the opener. The former World Series hero for the Philadelphia Phillies struggled down the stretch, allowing five or more runs in four of his final six starts, but went at least six innings in each of the last four. Hamels started twice in the postseason against Toronto in 2015 and went 0-1 while allowing a total of nine runs (four earned) in 13 1/3 innings.

TRENDS:

* Blue Jays are 9-2 in their last 11 games versus a left-handed starter.
* Rangers are 18-3 in Hamels' last 21 home starts.
* Under is 6-1 in Blue Jays last seven games following a win.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Hamels' last eight starts overall.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the home side in Game one of this ALDS rematch, with 64 percent of wagers on the Rangers. When it comes to the total, bettors think it will be a low scoring affair, with 67 percent of wagers on the Under.

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians (+128, 8.50)

Series tied 0-0

Boston's David Ortiz makes his last playoff run and starts it against a team managed by Terry Francona, who helped guide Ortiz and the Red Sox to World Series titles in 2004 and 2007. Francona must find a way to work around Ortiz with a pitching staff at less-than full strength when the Cleveland Indians host Boston in Game 1 of the American League Division Series on Thursday.

The Red Sox had a chance to earn homefield advantage throughout the playoffs but closed with five losses in the last six games to drop into third place and make it necessary to travel to Cleveland for Game 1. Ortiz went 3-for-20 with one extra-base hit in those six games while being showered with tributes, but the bigger issue for Boston was closer Craig Kimbrel suffering the loss in two of those games and issuing six walks in two total innings over his three appearances. The Indians' pitching issues have more to do with health as Carlos Carrasco (fractured finger) will miss the playoffs, Danny Salazar (forearm) is limited to the bullpen and Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber (quad) starts Game 2 on 10 days' rest. "He'll throw an extended side on Tuesday, which will line him up for Friday," Francona told reporters of Kluber. "Klub really wanted to pitch Thursday. We've been talking about it for three or four days, but I just kind of overruled him."

TV: 8:08 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: The Indians opened this game as +120 home dogs and bettors have faded them to the current number of Indians +128. The total has been set at 8.5. Check out the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for playoff baseball in Cleveland. The forecast calls for clear skies with temperatures in the mid 60's at gametime. There will be a slight hitters wind blowing out to left field at approximately six miles per hour.

INJURY REPORT: No notable injuries.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Unsurprisingly, it's all Boston money in this series. Our clients are just piling on the BoSox. Right now, we've got about 85 percent of the wagers on the road team, and we've moved 13 cents in that direction."

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Boston faltered down the stretch, and because of that, they are on the road in Cleveland. The Red Sox actually finished the season with a 98-64 X_WL record (expected won-loss based on run margin) which was the second best in MLB behind the Cubs. The Indians had just a 91-70 X_WL record. The reason Cleveland had a better real record is because they were 28-21 in games decided by exactly one run this season, while Boston was just 20-24."

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH Rick Porcello (22-4, 3.15 ERA) vs. Indians RH Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.26)

Porcello emerged as an AL Cy Young candidate in the second half and went 8-1 over his final 11 starts, yielding three or fewer earned runs in each of those outings. The New Jersey native had a string of 11 straight starts completing at least seven innings come to an end in his last two starts as he surrendered a total of six runs and 16 hits in 12 1/3 innings against Tampa Bay and Toronto. Porcello earned a home win over Cleveland on May 22 and is 10-4 with a 3.35 ERA in 22 career starts against the Indians.

Bauer might have slotted fourth in a fully healthy Cleveland rotation and struggled down the stretch with a 7.20 ERA in his last five starts. The lone quality start in that bunch came Saturday, when the UCLA product held Kansas City to three runs on six hits and two walks while striking out nine in six innings. Bauer faced Boston twice this season - once in relief - and allowed a total of six runs and 10 hits in six innings.

TRENDS:

* Red Sox are 11-2 in their last 13 road games versus a right-handed starter.
* Indians are 7-0 in their last seven home games versus a right-handed starter.
* Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last five overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Bauer's last four home starts.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are Backing the BoSox in Game one with 62 percent of wagers on Boston. The total is a a little more split, with 54 percent of wagers on the Over.

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Announcement

Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/6

Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/6

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