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**Udog** · 10-05-2016, 07:11 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six NFL trends to ponder, with Week 5 coming up……..

— Arizona is 8-4 in last 12 tries as a road favorite.

— Packers covered 9 of last 11 post-bye games.

— San Diego is 12-2-2 as a divisional road underdog.

— Detroit is 1-7-1 in last nine games as a home dog.

— Patriots are 31-11 vs spread coming off a loss, but 4-13 as a road fave.

— Indianapolis is 3-8 in last 11 games as a home favorite.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings

13) A woman in Ohio was late for her job recently. Why? She claimed she was attacked by a man in a clown suit on her way to work.

Not surprisingly, the clown attack story turned out to be a lie, but she gets credit for being original. Someone should ask her what kind of a bozo does she think would buy that story?

12) Have to wonder if Billy Donovan would’ve left Florida for the NBA if he knew that Kevin Durant would skip town; Donovan probably also knew that his AD at Florida, Jeremy Foley would be retiring soon, but Oklahoma City without Durant isn’t that great a job.

11) Arizona Cardinals are only NFL team that hasn’t scored in the first quarter yet this season.

10) Texas-Oklahoma football game, one of the biggest rivalry games in the country, starts at noon ET Saturday, thats 11am in Dallas, which means the teams eat pre-game meals at 7am. Why? This is ludicrous. FOX has baseball playoffs and FS1 has UFC on at night, so they want the football game in the morning, so the morning it is. Oy.

9) Colorado Buffaloes are in the football top 25 for the first time since 2005.

8) Julio Jones is the 6th WR in NFL history with 300+ receiving yards in a game; Flipper Anderson (336) still holds the all-time record.

7) Arizona Diamondbacks fired GM Dave Stewart/manager Chip Hale after their disaster of a season ended. Colorado/Walt Weiss also parted ways, though they said Weiss chose not to pursue another contract. Who quits a major league managing job?

6) Jimmer Fredette surfaced on my TV Sunday night as a member of the Shanghai Sharks, who finished 12th in the 20-team Chinese Basketball Association last year. Jimmer shoots a lot on this team.

Odd fact about the Chinese league; their All-Star weekend is between the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs, which seems like a really bad idea.

5) LA Rams are off to a 3-1 start, having played all three NFC West rivals already; their next divisional game isn’t until December 15- their last three games are all within the division. Their next nine games are all non-divisional games.

4) Kansas Jayhawks got a verbal commit from a kid from Chicago who is in the Class of 2019, which means he just started 10th grade. Whats the point of this, other than it might keep some recruiters away from contacting the kid? (probably not many, if he is really good)

If the young man gets hurt, is Kansas still obligated? What if he regresses as a player and the Jayhawks don’t want him anymore? What if the kid realizes that the weather in Arizona and California is way nicer than Kansas and he wants to go to school in one of those places?

3) San Diego Chargers are 3-12 in their last 15 games that were decided by 8 or less points; they’ve led by double figures in every game this year, they’ve led in the 4th quarter in every game and yet they’re 1-3, with a QB who will be 35 in December. Not good.

2) One of Duke’s star basketball recruits this year is Harry Giles, who just had his third knee surgery in three years; he didn’t play in high school last year and now his role this year will be reduced to an unknown extent.

Tough spot for everyone involved; if the kid doesn’t play a full-time role this year and then jumps into the NBA Draft next spring, which franchise will take the leap of faith and draft him? (hopefully not Portland, which has Sam Bowie/Greg Oden on its resume)

The young man needs his knees to stay healthy to become a millionaire; how long does he stay in college, risking an injury that could dash those hopes? But he also could improve his standing by staying in for an extra year and strengthening himself.

It’ll be an interesting story to follow moving forward.

1— When the Padres traded Drew Pomeranz to the Red Sox without fully disclosing his medical history, and then Boston found out about it and complained, the commissioner’s office offered to rescind the trade, but the Red Sox turned them down. Interesting decision.

Curious about two things here: a) How will Boston use Pomeranz in the playoffs? He’s pitched in long relief for the A’s- they should’ve started him more.

b) Does Padres’ GM AJ Preller keep his job when his suspension is over, and if he does, will other teams trade with him? The guy has proven to be a shady character at a young age.

**Udog** · 10-05-2016, 07:15 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 5

San Francisco @ NY Mets

Game 933-934
October 5, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
(Bmgrner) 13.892
NY Mets
(Syndrgrd) 16.745
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Mets
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Mets
-110
6
Dunkel Pick:
NY Mets
(-110); Over

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 5

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SAN FRANCISCO (87 - 75) at NY METS (87 - 75) - 8:00 PM
MADISON BUMGARNER (L) vs. NOAH SYNDERGAARD (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 87-75 (-8.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-15 (-11.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 84-75 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 54-53 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 57-53 (-17.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-27 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 41-32 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 62-43 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in October games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 46-30 (+20.7 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.
NY METS are 58-56 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
NY METS are 18-20 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss this season.
NY METS are 195-237 (-59.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 4-3 (+1.2 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.5 Units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. NY METS since 1997
BUMGARNER is 5-0 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.025.
His team's record is 5-1 (+3.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-1. (+4.5 units)

NOAH SYNDERGAARD vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
SYNDERGAARD is 1-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.66 and a WHIP of 1.118.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+0.6 units)

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MLB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, October 5

San Francisco at NY Mets, 8:00 PM ET
Bumgarner: SAN FRANCISCO is 13-3 SU when playing in the 1rst game of a playoff series
Syndergaard: NY METS are 13-21 SU against NL West opponents

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 5

Giants @ Mets
Bumgarner is 1-1, 3.54 in his last three starts; seven of his last ten starts went over total. SF is 9-8 in his road starts, 3-1 in his last four. He is 2-0, 3.27 against the Mets this year. Syndergaard is 4-2, 2.06 in his last seven starts; three of his last four went over. Mets lost four of his last six home starts. He is 1-1, 2.63 against the Giants this year.

Giants are 3-4 vs New York this year, with 10.6 runs/game scored. SF won its last four games to make playoffs after a dismal second half of season- they had best record in MLB at All-Star break. Mets are only Wild Card that had couple days to enjoy it and set up starter for this round. NY is 7-3 in last 10 games, but played also-rans the last two weeks. Last time they played a good team was Washington on September 14.

Giants won World Series is 2010, ’12, ’14; Bochy is 42-30 in postseason games as a manager. Collins made playoffs LY for first time in 11 years as a skipper (8-6); now he is in postseason for second straight year.

MLB

Wednesday, October 5

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Trend Report
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8:09 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. NY METS
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
NY Mets are 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games

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**Udog** · 10-05-2016, 07:15 AM

MLB

Wednesday, October 5

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National League Wild Card playoff preview and odds: Giants at Mets
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Madison Bumgarner has excelled against the Mets in his career, going 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA and .189 batting average against in six career starts.

San Francisco Giants at New York Mets (A: -110, H: -110, Total: 6)

Madison Bumgarner has etched his name into history as a big-game pitcher and gets another opportunity to prove it when the San Francisco Giants visit the New York Mets in the National League wild-card game Wednesday. The left-hander is 7-3 with a 2.14 ERA in 14 postseason appearances (12 starts) and was MVP of the 2014 World Series.

Bumgarner has also excelled against the Mets in his career, going 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA and .189 batting average against in six career starts. New York right-hander Noah Syndergaard opposes Bumgarner and represented himself fine in his first postseason last year when he went 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA and struck out 26 in 19 innings. The two aces squared off against one another May 1 with Bumgarner pitching six shutout innings in San Francisco's 6-1 victory while Syndergaard gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Mets were a MLB-best 27-13 over the final quarter of the season and look to reach the World Series for the second straight season, while the Giants were 30-42 after the All-Star Game and hope to stage a turnaround as they pursue their fourth straight World Series title in even-numbered years (2010, 2012, 2014).

TV: 8:09 p.m. ET, ESPN

INJURY REPORT:

Giants - SS E. Nunez (Ques Wed, hamstring), RF M. Williamson (60-Day DL, quadricep), RP R. Black (60-Day DL, elbow), RP C. Heston (60-Day DL, oblique).

Mets - SP S. Matz (Out For Season, elbow), SS W. Flores (Out For Season, wrist), SP J deGrom (Out For Season, forearm), 2B N. Walker (Out For Season, back), RP J. Niese (60-Day DL, knee), SP Z. Wheeler (Out For Season, elbow), RF J. Ruggiano (Out For Season, shoulder), SP M. Harvey (Out For Season, shoulder), 3B D. Wright (Out For Season, neck).

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 70's at game-time in Queens. Winds will be light, humidity will be low and there is less than a 1% chance of rain.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (15-9, 2.74 ERA) vs. Mets RH Noah Syndergaard (14-9, 2.60)

Bumgarner won at least 15 games for the fourth time in his career and posted his fourth consecutive sub-3.00 ERA. He wasn't always sharp down the stretch as he gave up four or more runs in four of his last nine starts and is well aware he's need to be in for form in the wild-card game. "It is a winner-take-all game. It's not a series, so that's really all there is to know about it," Bumgarner said at Tuesday's press conference. "You've got to get up there and you've got to have your stuff that day. You've got to have your command. You've got to be on. And that's it."

Syndergaard finished third in the NL in ERA (Bumgarner was fourth) and strikeouts (218) while putting together one of the top all-around seasons in the league. He has a 1-2 record with a 3.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in three career starts against the Giants and said he isn't concerned about facing Bumgarner. "That's really outside of my control," Syndergaard said during Tuesday's press conference. "I can't control who I'm facing out there. That's not going to take away from my game or how I'm going to approach their hitters."

TRENDS:

* Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
* Giants are 1-4 in Bumgarner's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Mets are 8-0 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
* Mets are 4-1 in Syndergaard's last 5 starts with 7 or more days of rest.
* Over is 6-1 in Giants' last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Over is 7-1 in Mets' last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Under is 7-0 in Syndergaard's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
* Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts vs. Mets.

CONSENSUS: The public is heavily on Madison Bumgarner and the Giants with 57 percent of the wagers on the road team. Over 6 is picking up 57 percent of the total plays.

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Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/5

Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/5

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