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**Udog** · 10-03-2016, 11:57 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks this week in the Westgate Super Contest

1) Jets +2.5 (661)– L

2) Broncos -3 (592)- W

3) Panthers -3 (541)– L

4) Patriots -5.5 (502)– L

5) 49ers +2.5 (460)– L

6) Raiders +3.5 (440)– W

Season record of top 6 picks: 2-4 this week (6-18 for season)

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Jaguars 30, Colts 27— College games end at like 2am Saturday night; having an NFL game on from England at 9:30am ET is a bit much. Jags are now 2-2 in London the last four years; all four of those games went over the total- they led this game 23-7 after three quarters, then held on. As for the Colts, they’re 1-3, allowing 30+ points in all three losses- they needed a 63-yard TD in last 1:30 for their only win last week. Pretty soon, the Nick Saban-to-Indy rumors should be popping up.

Bills 16, Patriots 0— New England is so sure they’re going to win the AFC East, they basically forfeited this game, playing a rookie QB (who already had an injured thumb) with a WR (Edelman) as his backup. No emergency backup QB, they just got this game over with, now Brady returns next week and things will return to normal and they can coast to yet another division title.

Redskins 31, Browns 20— Jerry Izenberg once wrote a book about Bill Parcells called, “No Medals for Trying”, which sums up the Browns’ first four games. Cleveland led 20-17 after third quarter; natives were drawing up impeachment papers for coach Gruden, but Redskins drove 91-39 yards for 4th quarter TDs to even their record at 2-2.

Seahawks 27, Jets 17— Sometimes teams don’t like an early bye too much, but for Seattle, their Week 5 bye couldn’t come at a better time; Russell Wilson needs to heal up. Seahawks had a 13-yard advantage in field position here. In their last two games, Jets have had 21 drives, 11 turnovers (-10); their offense scored one TD, allowed two TDs. I suppose they could bench QB Fitzpatrick, but then Geno Smith would have to play.

Texans 27, Titans 20— Only second half TD came on game-winning punt return by Houston; O’Brien’s play-calling produced TDs on Texans’ first two drives, but then only six points on last nine drives. Tennessee gave up the punt return TD and gave Houston a gift FG when they had 12 men on the field while Texans were trying to punt. Marcus Mariota was very unimpressive; he looks like a college-level passer and he only ran the ball four times for 20 yards.

Bears 17, Lions 14— Rumors are popping up that Detroit wants to hire Josh McDaniels as its next coach, with Jimmy Garoppolo as their new QB. Be careful what you wish for; Stafford is a pretty good QB (43-53 career record, with 0-2 playoff mark); he is still only 28, but you could probably get a good package for him in a trade. Lions’ only TD in this game came on a punt return. Hoyer passed for 302 yards as Bears got their first win this year.

Falcons 48, Panthers 33— Ryan passed for 504 yards, which is a lot harder when your team was winning the whole game- he averaged 12 yards per attempt. Atlanta’s last three TDs all came on plays of 35+ yards; they’re averaging over 7 yards per play, for the season. Cam Newton left with a concussion; Carolina is 1-3, after being 17-2 last year. Losing the Super Bowl does funny things to a team.

Raiders 28, Ravens 27— Baltimore rallied from down 21-12 with 7:00 left to take lead with 3:36 left, but Oakland drove 66 yards in six plays to win its third straight road game. Yardage was 412-261 Ravens; Oakland had 9-yard edge in field position in penalty-filled game. Two of Raiders’ four TDs came on drives of only 6-29 yards.

Saints 35, Chargers 34— Drew Brees wins his homecoming to San Diego. Horrific loss for Chargers, who’ve led by double digits in all four games, but are 1-3. Bolts led 24-14 at half, had ball up 34-21 with 6:50 left, but turned ball over three times on their last six offensive plays of the game. If you’re trying to get a new stadium and you need to win a vote on Election Day to get it, coughing up double digit leads every week is no bueno.

Cowboys 24, 49ers 17— Dallas rallies back from down 14-0 to win again as Dak Prescott is now 3-1 as an NFL starter. Good balance for Cowboys (194 running yards, 234 passing); Blaine Gabbert is now 9-30 as an NFL starter; Colin Kaepernick has a $60M guaranteed contract, but can’t beat him out.

Broncos 27, Buccaneers 7— Very rough day for Jameis Winston (17-35, 179 yards, two INTs). Another lightning delay in 4th quarter; wonder if Bucs will have more 1:00 home games early next season? Broncos were +3 in turnovers, had 14-yard edge in field position. Siemian hurt his left shoulder; rookie Lynch was 14-24/170 in relief. Denver hosts red-hot Atlanta next week in one of Week 5’s best matchups.

Rams 17, Cardinals 13— The difference between winning and losing teams in the NFL is very, very thin; last three weeks, Ram defense has been on field in last 2:00 of all three games, with other team driving to take the lead, but none of them did. LA is finding ways to win. This was also third time in last five games with Arizona that Rams KO’d Carson Palmer from the game.

Steelers 43, Chiefs 14— One of worst NFL games I’ve seen in long time; KC has scored three offensive TDs in their last three games. This seems like a good time to point out that Antonio Brown’s father Eddie once scored nine TD’s in an Arena Football League game for the Albany Firebirds, 1999 Arena Bowl champs. So far in Week 4, favorites are 5-9 vs spread, home teams 7-7, over 7-7.

**Udog** · 10-03-2016, 11:58 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Odds to win the World Series:

7-4– Chicago Cubs

5-1– Texas Rangers

6-1– Boston Red Sox

7-1– Los Angeles Dodgers/Washington Nationals

14-1– Cleveland Indians, Toronto Blue Jays

20-1– New York Mets

25-1– Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but………

13) Tennessee won their game Saturday at Georgia on a Hail Mary on the last play of the game; Pitt Panthers scored a pick-6 on the last play of their game against Marshall.

In both games, the PAT wasn’t tried after the TD, because time had run out, which was bad news for gamblers who had the two favorites, since both failed to cover by half a point.

12) Home teams are 13-3 vs spread in SEC conference games so far, 10-2 in Pac-12 games; in all the other conferences combined, home teams are 29-34 vs spread in conference play.

11) This year and last, Toronto Blue Jays are a combined 181-142, but just 35-53 in one-run games.

10) Heard some good news over the weekend; 71-year old Sam Wyche, the former NFL coach (Bengals/Bucs) received the heart transplant he needed. Has to be a weird thing, waiting for someone else to pass away (often unexpectedly) so you can have their heart.

9) Baylor has an odd football schedule; they’re off on both October 8 and 22 and play doormat Kansas on the 15th, so basically they have three open dates in a row. They should be unbeaten when they play TCU/Oklahoma back-to-back later on.

8) There were 12 catcher interference calls this year when Jacoby Ellsbury was hitting; with all the baseball I watch every night, think I saw one catchers’ interference the whole season. It doesn’t happen very often.

7) College basketball practices started last weekend; from reports on Twitter, every single practice went really, really well. Either that, or the team who had lousy practices stayed off of social media.

6) Had to laugh the other night; was watching a Bruins-Red Wings NHL preseason game- the announcers spent a good five minutes discussing how many teeth a certain player had knocked out by a slap shot last year. Losing 13, 14 teeth- that had to hurt. Hockey players are tough.

5) North Carolina’s punter is a 27-year old freshman from Australia.

4) BYU’s kicker is the grandson of former Cougars’ coach LaVell Edwards. Speaking of BYU, their first five games this year were decided by a total of 11 points.

3) I despise taunting penalties; either let ‘em talk a little, or just throw a flag and call it offsetting penalties. Picking out the instigator is stupid— it goes on the whole game. Very subjective as to who started what. NFL football is VERY over-officiated— too damn many penalty flags.

2) Evander Holyfield’s son is a freshman running back at Georgia.

1) Houston Astros were 28-25 in one-run games this year, ending a dismal streak from 2011-2015, where they went 93-148 in games decided by one run.

**Udog** · 10-03-2016, 12:01 PM

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 4

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BALTIMORE (89 - 73) at TORONTO (89 - 73) - 8:00 PM
CHRIS TILLMAN (R) vs. MARCUS STROMAN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 9-10 (+1.8 Units) against TORONTO this season
12 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.9 Units)

CHRIS TILLMAN vs. TORONTO since 1997
TILLMAN is 5-10 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 5.18 and a WHIP of 1.361.
His team's record is 10-14 (-4.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 13-11. (+0.6 units)MARCUS

STROMAN vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
STROMAN is 2-3 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 5.84 and a WHIP of 1.486.
His team's record is 2-4 (-3.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-3. (-0.3 units)

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Wednesday, October 5

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SAN FRANCISCO (87 - 75) at NY METS (87 - 75) - 8:00 PM
MADISON BUMGARNER (L) vs. NOAH SYNDERGAARD (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 87-75 (-8.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-15 (-11.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 84-75 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 54-53 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 57-53 (-17.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-27 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 41-32 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 62-43 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in October games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 46-30 (+20.7 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.
NY METS are 58-56 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
NY METS are 18-20 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss this season.
NY METS are 195-237 (-59.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 4-3 (+1.2 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.5 Units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. NY METS since 1997
BUMGARNER is 5-0 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.025.
His team's record is 5-1 (+3.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-1. (+4.5 units)

NOAH SYNDERGAARD vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
SYNDERGAARD is 1-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.66 and a WHIP of 1.118.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+0.6 units)

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**Udog** · 10-03-2016, 07:27 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 4

Tuesday’s game- AL Wild Card

Orioles @ Blue Jays
Tillman is 1-1, 4.26 in four starts since coming off the DL (under 4-0). Orioles won six of his last seven road starts. He is 1-0, 4.03 in four starts against the Jays this year. Stroman is 0-5, 3.65 in his last six starts; his last five starts stayed under the total. He was 1-2, 7.04 in four starts vs Baltimore this year. Toronto won five of his last seven home starts.

Toronto is 10-9 vs Baltimore this year, with average of 9.4 runs/game. Jays are 36-53 in one-run games last two years; they went 6-4 in last ten games overall, losing two of three here to Orioles last week. Baltimore won seven of its last nine games.

Gibbons is in playoffs for second year in row, after not making it in first seven years as Toronto skipper; he was 5-6 in playoffs LY, Jays’ first in playoffs since 1993. Orioles are in playoffs for third time in last five years; Showalter is 9-13 in playoff games.

NL Wild Card game is Wednesday.

Giants @ Mets
Bumgarner is 1-1, 3.54 in his last three starts; seven of his last ten starts went over total. SF is 9-8 in his road starts, 3-1 in his last four. He is 2-0, 3.27 against the Mets this year. Syndergaard is 4-2, 2.06 in his last seven starts; three of his last four went over. Mets lost four of his last six home starts. He is 1-1, 2.63 against the Giants this year.

Giants are 3-4 vs New York this year, with 10.6 runs/game scored. SF won its last four games to make playoffs after a dismal second half of season- they had best record in MLB at All-Star break. Mets are only Wild Card that had couple days to enjoy it and set up starter for this round. NY is 7-3 in last 10 games, but played also-rans the last two weeks. Last time they played a good team was Washington on September 14.

Giants won World Series is 2010, ’12, ’14; Bochy is 42-30 in postseason games as a manager. Collins made playoffs LY for first time in 11 years as a skipper (8-6); now he is in postseason for second straight year.

**Udog** · 10-04-2016, 07:27 AM

MLB

Tuesday, October 4

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American League Wild Card playoff preview and odds: Orioles at Blue Jays
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The Blue Jays took two of three from the Boston Red Sox to finish the regular season, holding off hard charges from the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners in the wild-card race.

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (A: +135, H: -155, Total: 8.5)

The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles did what they needed to do on the last weekend of the regular season and earned the two American League wild card spots with identical 89-73 records. The Blue Jays edged the Orioles 10-9 in the season series, earning the right to host the one-game playoff Tuesday to determine which team advances to the AL Division Series to face the top-seeded Texas Rangers.

Baltimore should have plenty of confidence after finishing the season winning seven of its last nine games with a series win in Toronto last week that included a 3-2 triumph Wednesday in which Hyun Soo Kim belted a pinch-hit, two-run blast off Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna in the ninth inning. The Orioles paced the majors with 253 home runs and Mark Trumbo led all players with 47 blasts, though only one of those came in 75 at-bats against Toronto. The Blue Jays took two of three from the Boston Red Sox to finish the regular season, holding off hard charges from the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners in the wild card race, but have some concerns at the back of the bullpen with Jason Grilli and Osuna. Grilli, who works the eighth inning, allowed a total of six runs on seven hits - three home runs - in 1 2/3 innings over his last three appearances while Osuna had a string of three straight blown saves come to an end Sunday.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TBS, Sportsnet (Toronto)

INJURY REPORT:

Orioles - RP J. Aquino (Out Indefinitely, illness), CF J. Rickard (60-Day DL, thumb), 2B S. Pearce (Out For Season, elbow), RP C. Lee (60-Day DL, shoulder).

Blue Jays - RP J. Benoit (Out Indefinitely, calf), RP G. Floyd (Out For Season, shoulder).

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 70's at game-time in Toronto. Last year in the post season the league forced the Jays to keep the roof closed and you can assume the situation will be the same on Tuesday night.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Chris Tillman (16-6, 3.77 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (9-10, 4.37)

Tillman is the nominal ace of the Baltimore staff but is winless in his last three starts while failing to complete six innings in each of those outings. The California native could not get out of the second frame against Boston on Sept. 22 but was better at Toronto on Wednesday, when he allowed two runs (one earned) and six hits and three walks in 5 2/3 innings. Tillman is 5-10 with a 5.44 ERA in 24 career starts against the Blue Jays.

Toronto burned its top two starters in ace Aaron Sanchez and right-hander Marco Estrada over the weekend at Boston in order to clinch and instead turns to Marcus Stroman. The Duke product went 1-0 with a 4.19 ERA in the playoffs last season and finished the 2016 campaign by allowing three or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts. The outlier in that bunch came Thursday against Baltimore, when he was reached for four runs on nine hits and two walks in seven innings.

TRENDS:

* Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
* Orioles are 8-0 in Tillman's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Blue Jays are 1-7 in Stroman's last 8 starts vs. American League East.
* Under is 7-0 in Orioles last 7 playoff road games.
* Under is 7-1 in Tillman's last 8 road starts.
* Under is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
* Under is 5-0 in Stroman's last 5 starts overall.
* Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is heavily on Marcus Stroman and the Jays with 63 percent of the wagers on the home team. Under 8.5 is picking up 55 percent of the total plays.

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**Udog** · 10-04-2016, 08:51 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 4

Baltimore @ Toronto

Game 931-932
October 4, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
(Tillman) 16.953
Toronto
(Stroman) 18.432
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 1 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-155
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-155); Over

Wednesday, October 5

San Francisco @ NY Mets

Game 933-934
October 5, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
(Bmgrner) 13.892
NY Mets
(Syndrgrd) 16.745
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Mets
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Mets
-110
6
Dunkel Pick:
NY Mets
(-110); Over

**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2016, 10:30 AM

MLB (PROFESSIONAL)

DUNKEL'S HIGHLIGHTED GAME

Baltimore at Toronto - Tuesday October 4, 2016

The Orioles head to Toronto tonight to face the Blue Jays in the AL wild card game and come into the contest with an 0-4 record in their last 4 playoff contests. Toronto is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1 1/2.

Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-155).

**Udog** · 10-04-2016, 11:15 AM

MLB Dunkel has updated.

Thanks for jogging my memory, Bum! Man, I'm fuzzy-brained today!

**Udog** · 10-04-2016, 01:06 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, October 4

Baltimore at Toronto, 8:00 PM ET
Tillman: BALTIMORE is 11-4 SU in road games after 6 or more consecutive road games
Stroman: TORONTO is 22-31 SU after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival

Weds – Oct. 5

San Francisco at NY Mets, 8:00 PM ET
Bumgarner: SAN FRANCISCO is 13-3 SU when playing in the 1rst game of a playoff series
Syndergaard: NY METS are 13-21 SU against NL West opponents

Announcement

Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/4

Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/4

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