The Bum's MLB Best Bets - Trends - News Thru the World Series !

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MLB PLAYOFF RECORD:

10/08 - 0 - 1 - 1 - 3.00

WLT PCT UNITS

M/L Picks.............3 - 5....................37.50 %............ - 2.08

O/U Picks............2 - 5 - 2................25.00 %............ - 5.00

TRIPLE PLAYS - ***** - 0 - 4

M/L-.......... 0 - 2 - 0
O/U-..........0 - 1 - 1

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Game 3 - Texas at Toronto
October 8, 2016

American Leauge Division Series - Game 3
Texas Rangers (95-67) at Toronto Blue Jays (89-73)
First pitch: Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET

Sportsbook.ag Game 3 Odds: Blue Jays -190, Rangers, Total 9 (Under -115)

After two games in Arlington, the American League Division Series between the Rangers and Blue Jays shits to Toronto for Game 3.

The AL West-champion Rangers (95-67) had the best record in the American League during the regular season, but all of a sudden they find themselves in a precarious situation.

The series is shifting to Toronto, where the Blue Jays (89-73)—who defeated the Orioles in the AL Wild Card Game on a dramatic walk-off home run—play in front of one of the most raucous crowds in the sport.

The pitching matchup heavily favors the Blue Jays, at least on paper. RHP Aaron Sanchez (15-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), who led the AL in ERA, will take the ball for manager John Gibbons. He’ll be opposed by RHP Colby Lewis (6-5, 3.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP).

The Blue Jays took three of four from the Rangers at Rogers Centre back in early May. Jeff Banister’s club went 42-39 on the road during the regular season. The Jays posted a 46-35 home mark.

The Rangers haven’t seen much of Sanchez, who only lost twice in 2017, but they’ve had some success against him in limited action. DH Carlos Beltran (.295, 29 HR, 93 RBI), acquired from the Yankees at the trade deadline, is 4-for-8 against the 24-year-old with a homer and four RBIs.

3B Adrian Beltre (.300, 32 HR, 104 RBI), who had another excellent year at age 37, has two hits against him in six at-bats—one of those hits was a homer.

SS Elvis Andrus (.302, 8 HR, 69 RBI, 24 SB) is 2-for-5 against him, 1B Mitch Moreland (.233, 22 HR, 60 RBI) is 2-for-6 and 2B Rougned Odor (.271, 33 HR, 88 RBI) is 3-for-8. Lewis faced the Jays twice this season.

On May 4, in Toronto, he took a no-decision after allowing three earned runs in seven innings. He took another no-decision 10 days later at home, holding the Blue Jays to two earned runs on four hits in seven innings. In nine career postseason appearances (eight starts), Lewis is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA in 53 innings pitched.

The Blue Jays have seen their fair share of Lewis, and the right-hander could be in for a long night.

RF Jose Bautista (.234, 22 HR, 69 RBI) is 5-for-17 against him with two homers and 10 walks and DH Michael Saunders (.253, 24 HR, 57 RBI) is 7-for-26 with a homer, a triple and two doubles. 1B Justin Smoak (.217, 14 HR, 34 RBI) has hit two homers off him, and CF Kevin Pillar (.266, 7 HR, 53 RBI has taken him deep as well.

Lewis has done a surprisingly good job of keeping 3B Josh Donaldson (.284, 37 HR, 99 RBI) and 1B Edwin Encarnacion (.263, 42 HR, 127 RBI) in check. They’re 2-for-15 and 1-for-15 with a homer against him, respectively.

Sanchez, like Lewis, faced the Rangers twice this season and took two no-decisions. He allowed three earned runs in seven innings in his first start, and gave up six earned runs in 6 2/3 in the second. In nine postseason appearances last season—no starts—Sanchez didn’t give up an earned run in 7 1/3 innings.

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Dodgers-Nats rained out in Game 2 of NLDS; will play Sunday
October 8, 2016

WASHINGTON (AP) Persistent rain led Major League Baseball to postpone Game 2 of the NL Division Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals to Sunday afternoon.

The teams were scheduled for a 4:08 p.m. first pitch Saturday. But rain that intensified as Hurricane Matthew moved up the coast and a forecast of ''100 percent certainty'' for precipitation until at least 8 p.m. forced the decision, Commissioner Rob Manfred said.

LA leads the best-of-five series 1-0 after a 4-3 victory Friday night.

Manfred said he expected the weather to be better for a 1:08 p.m. start Sunday at Nationals Park. It's supposed to be 61 degrees and windy.

''By 1 o'clock we hopefully will be in a sunny period,'' he said.

Left-hander Rich Hill (12-5, 2.12 ERA) will start Game 2 for the Dodgers against right-hander Tanner Roark (16-10, 2.83). Manfred said the rest of the series will proceed as scheduled with Game 3 Monday afternoon at Dodger Stadium - the rain wiped out the travel day to the West Coast.

Nationals second baseman Daniel Murphy said players came in prepared to play but was glad the decision was made quickly.

''Hats off to Major League Baseball for canceling this early,'' Murphy said. ''I'm sure they didn't want either pitcher to get out there and get caught in a situation where you lose one of them, especially in a short series like this.''

The postponement means the teams will have to play and fly Sunday.

''We do East-West travel like this during the regular season,'' Manfred said. ''It's not ideal but doable.''

It's expected to be Dodgers righty Kenta Maeda against Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez in Game 3. Manager Dave Roberts said lefty Julio Urias would start Game 4, if necessary, which would leave ace Clayton Kershaw available for a possible Game 5.

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Indians at Fenway with chance to sweep out Ortiz, Red Sox
October 8, 2016

BOSTON (AP) The protective plastic sheeting from Toronto's end-of-season celebration was still covering the lights in the visitor's clubhouse at Fenway Park on Saturday.

No reason to take it down.

They might need it again pretty soon.

The Cleveland Indians arrived in Boston with a 2-0 lead in their best-of-five AL Division Series and a chance to eliminate the Red Sox in Game 3 on Sunday. If they do, it will also be the end for Boston designated hitter David Ortiz, who will retire at the end of the season and will do everything he can before then to make sure that doesn't come quite so soon.

''Everybody had it mapped out in their head in spring training what we wanted to do, knowing that David was not going to be here next year,'' said Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz, who will try to keep the season going. ''We reached the first goal, and that was to get in the playoffs and win the division. Second part of it has not worked out the first two games, but I don't think there's anybody on this team that's more confident than David Ortiz about us moving forward.

''And whenever he comes to bat, he would love to put himself in the most pressure-packed position,'' Buchholz said. ''That's just what he's done over his career.''

After Cy Young candidate Rick Porcello and ace David Price failed to beat Cleveland in the first two games, Buchholz (8-10, 4.78 in 2016) will try to slow down an Indians offense that already has four homers in the series. He will face Cleveland right-hander Josh Tomlin (13-9, 4.40), a former teammate from Angelina Junior College.

''This is a pretty cool story,'' Buchholz said. ''We talked about it the other day. He's one of my good buddies. ... It's a small world when it comes to that.''

Tomlin said the two pitchers get together in the offseason and have been back to the school in Lufkin, Texas, to work out with their coach. When their teams play, they sometimes hang out or go out to lunch.

This year, they've had more to talk about than just their school days: Each of them has struggled this season and was bounced from his team's rotation. After going 0-5 with an 11.48 ERA in August, Tomlin made his next appearance out of the bullpen and didn't start again until Sept. 14.

''The idea was to give him maybe a little of a break,'' Indians manager Terry Francona said. ''I think what he actually did was he dug in and tried to figure out, `OK, what makes me a good pitcher and why?' And I think he probably got to it quicker than the rest of us.''

Buchholz spent more time going back and forth to the bullpen, with 21 starts and 16 relief appearances. But he returned to the rotation in September and went 3-0, allowing two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.

''He's had a resurgence of his own right inside the season,'' Red Sox manager John Farrell said. ''I don't think anyone can fully appreciate all that he's been through this year. (He) needed a little bit of a breather from the rotation, worked out some issues while going to the bullpen and has returned and is pitching some of the best baseball, I think, in his career.''

The Red Sox had a meeting on Saturday - players and coaches - after arriving at Fenway, and Buchholz said the team needed a reminder of what brought it so much success this season.

''We're here because of everybody and what they've done throughout this year,'' he said. ''We have a potential couple of MVP candidates, potential Cy Young candidate on this team. We're a really good ballclub and there's no need to put added pressure or added stress on one game because of what could happen.''

Across the diamond, the Indians were loose - thanks to their two-game lead.

Francona arrived in the media interview room at the same time as Tomlin and promptly rearranged the schedule to let his pitcher go first. He then asked him, ''Are you getting a Texas-to-English translator?''

When Tomlin stuck around to watch his manager's interview, Francona said something nice about the 31-year-old pitcher and then said, ''I think I'm going to throw up.''

Even with the joking around, reliever Andrew Miller said the team knows it still has work to do.

''We can't take our foot off the gas,'' he said. ''We're not celebrating at this point.''

Game 4 would be Monday night at Fenway, if necessary, with Game 5 back in Cleveland on Wednesday.

Until then, Tomlin and Buchholz won't be having any meals together.

''Yeah, I'll text him tonight,'' Tomlin said. ''Not tomorrow. But the next day after that? Yeah.''

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Sunday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks this week in Westgate Super Contest:

1) Cincinnati Bengals -1 (841)

2) Philadelphia Eagles -3 (568)

3) Minnesota Vikings -6.5 (508)

4) Pittsburgh Steelers -7 (494)

5) New Jersey Giants +7.5 (476)

6) Detroit Lions +3 (443)

Season record for top 6 picks: 6-18 vs spread


Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) Washington 70, Oregon 21— Huskies had lost 12 in row in this bitter rivalry, going 1-11 vs spread, but Ducks are lousy this year and U-Dub went out of their way to exact some revenge for those previous beatings. Starting QB Browning threw a 45-yard TD pass in the 4th quarter, when the score was 56-21. Oregon has lost four in a row; their coach has to be in very hot water.

12) Oklahoma 45, Texas 40— Sooners gained 672 yards, scoring 45 points in a game when they turned ball over four times (-2). Texas coach Strong called the defenses today, which helped in first half (14 -13 Sooners) but Longhorns reverted to normal form in second half. Have to think Texas will reach out to Houston coach Tom Herman in December.

11) Texas A&M 45, Tennessee 38 OT— I’ve never seen a team turn the ball over six times and win, but Tennessee got to OT with six TO’s; their 7th ended the game. With 8:00 left in third quarter, A&M led 28-7, but gritty Vols fought back and forced overtime, where they fell just short. Aggies are 6-0 for first time since 1994; they won their two I-A home games in OT.

10) Purdue 34, Illinois 31 OT— Good day for icing kickers; A&M’s kicker missed at the end of regulation when Tennessee coach Butch Jones iced him. In this game, Darrell Hazell used three timeouts in a row to ice the Illinois kicker on his game-winning try, and it worked as the Boilers prevailed later on in OT, winning a game where they allowed 315 rushing yards.

9) Navy 46, Houston 40— Middies ended Houston’s longshot hopes of a national title; with so many big-money programs struggling, Cougars coach Herman will likely bolt to one of those schools after this season, so curious to see how Houston does rest of way in a pretty good AAC.

8) Biggest Upset of Day (by pointspread); Tex-San Antonio 55, Southern Mississippi 32— Roadrunners won as a 17-point home underdog. UTSA ran ball for 339 yards.

7) Pitt 37, Georgia Tech 34— Most fun play of the day; Pitt’s QB rolls out to the right, throws a lateral/screen pass back to the left to #70 (an offensive lineman), who has an escort to the end zone for an easy TD. Football coaches work very long hours and drink a lot of Red Bull- that play had to be designed very late at night.

6) Oklahoma State 38, Iowa State 31— Cyclones have their hearts torn out for second week in row; they led 31-14 with 3:00 left in third quarter, but just like last week, they let it slip away late in a game where total yardage was 459-448. Iowa State is much-improved.

The field at Oklahoma State is so close to the bleachers in the corners of the field, really too close. Someone’s gonna get hurt, running OB at full speed with very little room to stop.

5) NC State 10, Notre Dame 3— In 1979, Tampa Bay beat the Chiefs 3-0 in a deluge on the last day of the season to win their division; this game reminded me of that, played in a quagmire with heavy rains. Total yardage was 198-113 NC State; the two FGs that were made in this game looked like me hitting a 5-iron— no bueno. Very tough weather conditions and Notre Dame is now 2-4.

4) TCU 24, Kansas 23— Jayhawks led 23-14 after third quarter; TCU kicked FG to win it with 1:21 left, avoiding a catastrophic loss. Kansas outgained them by 104 yards in a sloppy game where both teams had four turnovers. Huge sigh of relief from Fort Worth after this game.

3) Michigan 78, Rutgers 0— A long time ago, Florida State crushed some feeble opponent and coach Bobby Bowden said, “it is not my job to hold the score down, it is their job”, pointing to the other locker room. Total yardage in this game was 600-39. The Scarlet Knights have work to do.

Hard to believe these teams are in the same league, right? Why did the Big 14 choose Rutgers over UConn? At least the Huskies are strong in basketball.

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Dodgers @ Nationals

36-year old Hill is 3-2, 1.84 in six starts (under 4-2) for the Dodgers; his only postseason start in a 12-year career was in 2007- he allowed three runs in three IP for the Cubs against Arizona. Hill didn’t pitch against Washington this year.

Roark is 3-3, 2.16 in his last seven starts (under 5-1-1); this is his first postseason start- he allowed one run in 2.2 IP in two relief stints for the Nationals two years ago, against the Giants. Roark lost 3-2 to LA June 21, allowing three runs in 7.1 IP. Washington is 10-7 in his home starts.

Dodgers are in playoffs for 4th year in a row- their last World Series title was in 1988. LA is 6-1 vs Washington this season; they lost six of last eight road games, but most of those losses came after they clinched the division. Nationals won six of last ten games; they jogged to NL East title— they’re in playoffs for third time in last five years.

Roberts is a rookie manager. Baker is 19-27 as postseason manager; he won NL pennant is 2002 with the Giants.

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MLB BETTING TRENDS

Our free MLB betting trends is a tool that uses a comprehensive statistical database to analyze MLB trends and make recommendations based on historical team data for the moneyline, teaser, and run lines bets as well.

Money Line

7:35 pm 10/9/2016
(933) TEXAS @(934) TORONTO
Play ON TEXAS using the money line in All games when the total is 9 to 9.5.
The record is 48 Wins and 25 Losses this season (+24.3 units)
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7:35 pm 10/9/2016
(933) TEXAS @(934) TORONTO
Play ON TEXAS using the money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 86 Wins and 56 Losses for the last two seasons (+48.47 units)
BET NOW

4:05 pm 10/9/2016
(931) CLEVELAND @(932) BOSTON
Play AGAINST BOSTON using the money line in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 48 Wins and 71 Losses for the last three seasons (-40.3 units)
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4:05 pm 10/9/2016
(931) CLEVELAND @(932) BOSTON
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using the money line in All games when the total is 9 to 9.5.
The record is 19 Wins and 36 Losses for the last two seasons (-25.8 units)
BET NOW

4:05 pm 10/9/2016
(959) LA DODGERS @(960) WASHINGTON
Play AGAINST LA DODGERS using the money line in Road games after a win.
The record is 14 Wins and 25 Losses this season (-18.05 units)
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4:05 pm 10/9/2016
(959) LA DODGERS @(960) WASHINGTON
Play AGAINST LA DODGERS using the money line in Road games after a win.
The record is 34 Wins and 50 Losses for the last two seasons (-33.6 units)
BET NOW

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MLB BETTING TRENDS

Our free MLB betting trends is a tool that uses a comprehensive statistical database to analyze MLB trends and make recommendations based on historical team data for the moneyline, teaser, and run lines bets as well.

Under


7:35 pm 10/9/2016
(933) TEXAS @(934) TORONTO
Play UNDER TORONTO on the total in All games when playing against a team with a winning record.
The record is 33 Overs and 59 Unders this season (+21.45 units)
BET NOW

7:35 pm 10/9/2016
(933) TEXAS @(934) TORONTO
Play UNDER TORONTO on the total in All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
The record is 14 Overs and 36 Unders this season (+19.95 units)
BET NOW

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AP Source: Broncos rookie Paxton Lynch to start Sunday
October 8, 2016

DENVER (AP) Broncos rookie Paxton Lynch will make his first NFL start Sunday when Denver hosts the Atlanta Falcons, a person with knowledge of coach Gary Kubiak's decision told The Associated Press on Saturday.

The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the team didn't make the choice public, said Trevor Siemian's sprained left shoulder isn't 100 percent and the hope is that the extra time will allow Siemian to start Thursday night in San Diego.

Siemian sprained his AC joint in his non-throwing shoulder just before halftime of Denver's 27-7 win at Tampa Bay last weekend and Lynch completed 14 of 24 passes for 170 yards and a TD in relief.

Kubiak reiterated Monday that Siemian was still his starter but would only play this weekend if his health allowed. On Friday, Kubiak said the short turnaround before the Chargers game would have no bearing on who he decides to start against Atlanta.

The Falcons (3-1) bring the NFL's top-rated offense but the league's 30th-ranked defense into Denver on Sunday, where the Broncos (4-0) are seeking their 10th consecutive victory.

Lynch got all the snaps with the starters with Siemian sitting out Wednesday's practice, and he continued to get the bulk of the reps even as Siemian returned Thursday and gradually increased his workload.

Unlike last year, when the Broncos had to make major changes in their game plan depending on whether Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler was starting, the coaches only have to thin the playbook a little bit with Lynch, the 26th overall pick out of Memphis in the April draft.

''It definitely feels good knowing that I've played in a game if I were to start or play in this game,'' Lynch said Wednesday. ''It feels good to get some game reps under your belt so you're not just thrown out there.''

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Rams cut Sensabaugh 4 games into 3-yr deal
October 8, 2016

THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. (AP) The Los Angeles Rams cut cornerback Coty Sensabaugh on Saturday, just four games into his three-year contract.

The Rams (3-1) also promoted defensive lineman Morgan Fox from the practice squad.

Sensabaugh joined the Rams in March with a free-agent deal potentially worth nearly $15 million, rising to $19 million if he met incentives. He is making $4.5 million in guarantees this season.

Sensabaugh started the Rams' first two games, but he lost playing time to Troy Hill, who started the last two. E.J. Gaines, a 2014 starting cornerback for the Rams, also returned from injury last week.

The Rams used Lamarcus Joyner in the nickel defensive back role often filled by Sensabaugh with the Tennessee Titans, where he spent his first four NFL seasons.

Los Angeles signed Sensabaugh after losing Janoris Jenkins to a lucrative free-agent deal with the New York Giants. Gaines missed all of last season with a foot injury, but he appears to be slipping back into a major role opposite fellow starting cornerback Trumaine Johnson.

Los Angeles hosts the Buffalo Bills (2-2) on Sunday.

The Rams could need Fox, an undrafted free agent from Colorado State-Pueblo who impressed the team in the preseason. Defensive linemen Robert Quinn, William Hayes and Michael Brockers all missed practices this week with injuries, leaving them questionable for Sunday.

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Panthers QB Cam Newton out for MNF
October 8, 2016

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Concussed quarterback Cam Newton and three other Carolina Panthers starters have been have been ruled out for Monday night's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers .

The league's MVP hasn't practiced since taking a helmet-to-helmet hit in Sunday's 48-33 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

Derek Anderson will start for Carolina in Newton's place.

Panthers coach Ron Rivera described Newton as ''antsy,'' adding that ''he can't help himself.''

This is only the third game Newton has missed since joining the Panthers as the No. 1 pick in 2011.

''We're going to do what we do, play who we play,'' Rivera said after Saturday's practice. ''We've done this before. It's that next-man-up mentality.''

Anderson is 2-0 as Newton's replacement since joining the Panthers in 2011, with both wins coming against Tampa Bay in 2014. Anderson threw two TD passes and had two turnovers in relief of Newton last week against the Falcons.

''You know D.A. is going to get it out quick, quicker probably than Cam,'' wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin said this week. ''We're going to have to be fast on our routes.''

''I think he takes what he can get when he plays,'' Rivera said of Anderson. ''Unlike Cam, who is going to stand tall in there and maybe skip an opportunity and work something downfield, Derek is going to be quick to pull the trigger and make a quick decision and go forward.''

It's unclear when Newton will return.

The Panthers visit the New Orleans Saints on Oct. 16 and then have a bye the following week, so it is conceivable the team could hold him out through the bye week to make sure he's recovered.

Newton took four helmet-to-helmet hits in Carolina's loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 1. However, he played through those hits and stayed in the game.

But last week, Newton took a legal helmet-to-helmet blow from Falcons linebacker Deion Jones in the fourth quarter. He hasn't spoken to the media since because he's been in the league's concussion protocol.

Carolina will also be without three other starters on Monday - running back Jonathan Stewart (hamstring), left tackle Michael Oher (concussion) and cornerback James Bradberry (toe). Defensive tackle Vernon Butler (ankle), the team's first-round draft pick, is also out.

Rivera said he feels reasonably confident Stewart will be back next week. In the meantime, Cameron Artis-Payne and Fozzy Whittaker will share carries.

With Bradberry out and Bene Benwikere having been abruptly waived earlier in the week, Rivera said the Panthers will start Robert McClain and rookie Daryl Worley at cornerback.

Outside linebacker Thomas Davis (hamstring), defensive end Charles Johnson (quad), fullback Mike Tolbert (hamstring) and wide receivers Ted Ginn Jr. (foot) and Devin Funches are listed as questionable. All three practiced and are expected to play against the Buccaneers (1-3).

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Panthers QB Newton, 3 others starters out vs. Tampa Bay
October 8, 2016

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has been ruled out for Monday night's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a concussion.

The league's MVP hasn't practiced since taking a helmet-to-helmet hit in Sunday's 48-33 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

Derek Anderson will start for Carolina in Newton's place.

It's unclear when Newton will return. The Panthers visit the New Orleans Saints on Oct. 16 and then have a bye the following week.

Carolina will also be without three other starters on Monday - running back Jonathan Stewart (hamstring), left tackle Michael Oher (concussion) and cornerback James Bradberry (toe). Defensive tackle Vernon Butler (ankle), the team's first-round draft pick, is also out.

Outside linebacker Thomas Davis (hamstring), defensive end Charles Johnson (quad) and fullback Mike Tolbert (hamstring) are listed as questionable.

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Here comes Brady, as if Browns don't have enough problems
October 8, 2016

Even with the Falcons at Denver, the perfect Vikings hosting Houston and the unbeaten Eagles returning from their bye to face Detroit, the spotlight is on Cleveland in Week 5. And no, the 0-4 Browns aren't the attraction. Tom Brady is.

Back from his ''Deflategate'' four-game suspension, Brady isn't talking much. Anyone who has watched him win four Super Bowls and two league MVP honors knows how much of an edge he will bring to Sunday's game.

That might be even sharper after New England was blanked at home by Buffalo following three victories.

Of course, if you seek any wisdom from Foxborough, that's a dead end. The Browns provided more insight on the quarterback they will face than any of the Patriots managed about Brady.

''I think he is going to come back and just be ready to go. He is a true professional,'' Browns cornerback Joe Haden says.

''Whenever he is out on the field, he studies professionally, he knows where he wants to go with the ball and he is confident in his players. Him and his coach, they have been together for so long so they just know each other like the back of their hands. I think that he is going to come back in midseason form.''

If the Browns already are in midseason form, they could be a threat to equal Detroit's 0-16 season of 2008.

The action began Thursday night with visiting Arizona's 33-21 victory over San Francisco. Drew Stanton threw two touchdown passes to Larry Fitzgerald in his first start in two years, David Johnson ran for two scores and the Cardinals (2-3) capitalized on mistakes by San Francisco (1-4).

Stanton played in place of Carson Palmer, the Arizona starter sidelined by a concussion.

Off this week are Jacksonville (1-3), New Orleans (1-3), Kansas City (2-2) and Seattle (3-1).

Atlanta (3-1) at Denver (4-0)

Clearly the best matchup this week, the Falcons come off a blowout win over Carolina, which the Broncos barely edged in the season opener. Of course, Denver manhandled the Panthers in the Super Bowl, and its defense is just as good, if not better.

That presents a hefty challenge for the Falcons , whose offense is ranked atop the league, led by Matt Ryan throwing to Julio Jones. Atlanta has scored 152 points, 38 more than anyone else.

So this is a classic powerful offense vs. dominant defense matchup.

''We don't want to be the team on the other side of a 500-yard game by Matt Ryan, so it just motivates us to prepare even harder,'' Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib says. ''It fires us up to go compete against the best. Julio and Matt Ryan are the best right now in the league, so it fires us up to go compete against them.''

Jones returns the compliments when asked about Denver's secondary, even as he prepares to try to victimize the Broncos.

''Just their whole defense is a great defense, probably one of the best defenses we're going to face this year,'' Jones says. ''It's not more about them, it's more about us. We've got to go there and do what we do. They have great athletes, and definitely in the secondary and their front seven is very, very good. It comes down to us and our execution.''

Houston (3-1) at Minnesota (4-0)

Wow, do the Vikings look good. And whoa, for a first-place team, do the Texans look mediocre.

If it wasn't for Denver's outrageous defense, the football world would be in awe of Minnesota's. Not since 1988 have the Vikings allowed fewer points (50) through four games than this season. They also lead the NFL with a plus-10 turnover margin; their only giveaway was a lost fumble by safety Andrew Sendejo during his own fumble return.

Houston has beaten Chicago, Kansas City and Tennessee in unimpressive fashion, and didn't show up for its toughest opponent, a 27-0 loss at the Patriots. The Texans' best player, DE J.J. Watt (back) is gone for the season.

Philadelphia (3-0) at Detroit (1-3)

There's plenty of eagerness, and a bit of trepidation, in Philly as the Eagles get back on the field. Their fans are thrilled by the quick start behind rookie quarterback Carson Wentz but also wonder if it is for real.

Beating Detroit doesn't prove a lot, but losing to the Lions, even on the road, could be a sign the first three weeks were something of a mirage in Philadelphia.

''Really in my opinion our season starts now,'' coach Doug Pederson says. ''What we've done already is great and we're in a good position, but we need to buckle down and prepare as if this is Week 1.''

Why has Detroit dropped three in a row? Try ranking second with 370 yards in penalties and third with 39 penalties in total. Plus, the Lions have only one pick and have not recovered a fumble.

Cincinnati (2-2) at Dallas (3-1)

Finally, Cowboys rookie QB Dak Prescott faces a solid defense. If he passes this test, Dallas might be onto something at quarterback while Tony Romo heals. Prescott has thrown a rookie-record 131 passes without an interception to start his career, tied with Hall of Famer Warren Moon for second overall behind Brady (162).

This one could be decided on the ground. Cincinnati hasn't allowed a rushing TD this season, while the Cowboys have NFL-leading eight. Dallas rookie Ezekiel Elliott leads the league in rushing with 412 yards.

Then again, the Bengals have one of the sport's most dangerous receivers, A.J. Green, who has two games this season with 10 catches.

New York Jets (1-3) at Pittsburgh (3-1)

One of the worst matchups possible for the reeling Jets: New York trails the overall series 19-5 and is 1-9 in Pittsburgh.

If the Jets don't tidy up, they could get rocked at Heinz Field. Their 13 turnovers are the most in the NFL and Ryan Fitzpatrick's 10 interceptions lead the league. He's also 0-4 against the Steelers.

Ben Roethlisberger's 11 TD passes are tied for the NFL high with Atlanta's Ryan, and he is 31-10 in October. His top target, 2015 All-Pro Antonio Brown, has four TD receptions, also tied for the league lead. Running back Le'Veon Bell rolled up 178 yards of total offense in his 2016 debut last Sunday night after serving a three-game suspension.

Washington (2-2) at Baltimore (3-1)

Despite having stadiums a half-hour apart on I-95, these franchises have met only five times in real games. Washington's last win in Baltimore was in 1955 against the Colts.

Ravens coach John Harbaugh can pass Brian Billick for most regular-season wins in franchise history with 81. He'll rely on a defense ranked atop the league that has allowed only eight plays of at least 20 yards, fewest in the NFL. With RB Terrance West coming off his best game, Baltimore gets to test the NFL's second-worst rushing defense, which has yielded eight TDs on the ground and 133 yards rushing per game.

Buffalo (2-2) at Los Angeles (3-1)

Both teams are feeling very good about themselves.

Buffalo comes off a shutout at Foxborough, the first time the Patriots have been blanked in Gillette Stadium. The Bills have won twice since Greg Roman was canned as offensive coordinator and replaced by Anthony Lynn, and they get back DT Marcell Dareus from a four-game suspension for his second violation of the league's substance abuse policy.

Not only have the Rams won three in a row after an awful opener, they are winning despite ranking dead last in total offense. There's nothing wrong with the defense, led by Aaron Donald, and if RB Todd Gurley, last year's top offensive rookie, can get going, Los Angeles might have a contender in its first season back in the NFL.

Tampa Bay (1-3) at Carolina (1-3), Monday night

It would be tempting to bury the loser of this prime-time affair, especially in light of Atlanta's hot start. And it would be easier to do so with the Buccaneers, who can't avoid turnovers (nine) and are allowing 32 points an outing.

Carolina starts backup QB Derek Anderson with Cam Newton out with a concussion. What the Panthers really seem to need is rapid development in the secondary; the decision to let Josh Norman leave in free agency has been biting the conference champions.

Anderson isn't mobile like Newton, and Carolina's line has allowed 13 sacks.

San Diego (1-3) at Oakland (3-1)

If you want a definition of self-destruction, simply look at the Chargers' lack of a finishing touch. They have given up 51 points in the first three quarters combined and 51 points in fourth quarter. San Diego led all four games at the two-minute warning but lost three.

Oakland has won three in a row despite a sieve of a defense. The previous time Oakland was 4-1 was 2002, the season when the Raiders won the AFC title. Placekicker Sebastian Janikowski needs five points to become the 13th player with 1,700 in his career.

Tennessee (1-3) at Miami (1-3)

Both teams have been keeping one eye on Hurricane Matthew while preparing. In a scheduling oddity, the Titans will play a team coming off a longer layoff after playing on a Thursday night for the second straight week; they lost to Houston last Sunday.

Don't look for much offense here with Tennessee at the bottom of the NFL in scoring with 62 points and Miami unable to run the ball, averaging 61 yards per game. The Dolphins rank last in third-down conversions (27 percent) and tied for 31st with 65 first downs.

New York Giants (2-2) at Green Bay (2-1)

The Pack is back - from a bye. Seeing the Giants would seem to be a good way to return considering how inept New York's injury-depleted secondary has been. Aaron Rodgers must be eager as all get-out to get on the field, but he should remember that the Giants have won two huge games there in the playoffs in 2008 and 2012.

Green Bay is holding opponents to a league-stingiest 1.8 yards rushing per play. The Giants rank 19th running the ball.

The Packers have been vulnerable through the air, though. In their past two outings, they allowed career-best days to Lions WR Marvin Jones (six catches, 205 yards, two TDs) and Vikings WR Stefon Diggs (nine catches, 182 yards, one TD).

Chicago (1-3) at Indianapolis (1-3)

Not too far a drive for Bears fans to make. Why they would want to make it, we don't know.

Actually, the Bears got off the schneid with their win over Detroit last weekend, and in their only trips to Lucas Oil Stadium, they won the building's debut game in 2008, and then knocked off the Colts in Andrew Luck's first game in 2012.

Indy running back Frank Gore needs 20 yards rushing to pass Jim Brown - yes Jim Brown - for No. 9 on NFL's career list. Adam Vinatieri has made 33 consecutive field goals, three short of his own career best in Indy.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 5
October 8, 2016


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Vikings are 10-0 ATS since Nov 02, 2014 as a favorite after they allowed fewer points than expected last game.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 0-10 ATS since Sep 19, 2010 at home off a game as a favorite where they had at least 32 minutes time of possession.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Falcons are 0-8 O/U since Nov 01, 2015 after a game where Julio Jones had at least seven receptions.

NFL ATS SYSTEM:

-- Teams which made 5+ field goals last game are 42-54-2 ATS. Active against Cincinnati.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Texans are 0-10 O/U since Oct 11, 2009 as a dog of more than three points after they committed at least two turnovers last game.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Chargers are 10-0-1 O/U since Nov 12, 2006 on the road off a game as a favorite where they had less than 28 minutes time of possession.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Redskins are 10-0 ATS as a dog vs a team that has forced an average of at least 5.9 punts per game season-to-date.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 5
October 8, 2016

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4

Week 5

1) Cincinnati -1 (841)
2) Philadelphia -3 (568)
3) Minnesota -6.5 (508)
4) Pittsburgh -7 (494)
5) N.Y. Giants +7.5 (476)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 5 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Arizona (-3.5) 130 San Francisco (+3.5) 78
Houston (+6.5) 273 Minnesota (-6.5) 508
Tennessee (+3.5) 332 Miami (-3.5) 131
New England (-10.5) 368 Cleveland (+10.5) 282
N.Y. Jets (+7) 221 Pittsburgh (-7) 494
Washington (+4) 397 Baltimore (-4) 240
Philadelphia (-3) 568 Detroit (+3) 443
Chicago (+4.5) 331 Indianapolis (-4.5) 203
Atlanta (+5.5) 314 Denver (-5.5) 383
Buffalo (+2) 430 Los Angeles (-2) 325
San Diego (+3.5) 441 Oakland (-3.5) 334
Cincinnati (-1) 841 Dallas (+1) 215
N.Y. Giants (+7.5) 476 Green Bay (-7.5) 143
Tampa Bay (+6.5) 224 Carolina (-6.5) 95

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 5 Essentials
October 7, 2016

We enter Week 5 with just three undefeated teams and a single winless one, so every team has to feel they’re close to clicking and really taking off since few have really gained separation. Although teams like the Raiders and Rams have a shot at a surprising 4-1 start, most eyes will be on high-profile expected playoff contenders like the Panthers, Colts and Jets all trying to emulate the Cardinals in avoiding opening 1-4. Seattle, Kansas City, Jacksonville and New Orleans are on bye. Here’s what else you need to know before wagering on Week 5:

Sunday, Oct. 9

Houston at Minnesota: The Texans prevailed in their first game since likely losing J.J. Watt for the season, scoring a season-high 27 points. Will Fuller played hero with a game-winning punt return, Brock Osweiler threw for two touchdowns for the first time since the season-opener and they came out of the win over Tennessee with a two-game edge on everyone in the AFC South. They’ll enter the new US Bank Stadium, where Minnesota’s defense has shined in high-profile night games against the Packers and Giants, looking to prove they can move the ball on the road since their only showing thus far was that 27-0 Thursday night debacle at New England. The Vikings have surrendered 50 points (12.5) over their four wins, ranking second in scoring defense while registering 15 sacks and 11 takeaways. Coming off a short week won’t affect much since they stayed home sleeping in their beds, so this will be a nice test in a potential letdown spot. The Texans have never beaten Minnesota, coming in 0-3, suffering the last loss in 2012.

Tennessee at Miami: All three of the Titans losses have been one-possession games where they felt they gave away chances and created opportunities for opponents. Special teams coordinator Bobby April paid with his job, but Tennessee’s struggles have been a combination of all units falling short. They’re a fairly young group still lacking true leaders, so it will be interesting to see whether they can rebound on the road in South Florida against another team out to avoid a 1-4 start. The Dolphins had a couple of extra days since they opened Week 4 with a Thursday night loss in Cincinnati where they showed little offensive chemistry. RB Arian Foster (groin) back at practice on Wednesday and hope he’ll suit up for his home debut. Since they’ve played three of the NFL’s better teams on the road at Seattle, New England and Cincy, Miami is likely right where it is supposed to be record-wise, but begins a stretch of four consecutive home games that it must make good use of to have any chance at a winning season. These teams are both in the bottom-five in turnover differential, so it would be fitting if that stat winds up determining a winner here. Miami won in Nashville last year 38-10, sacking Marcus Mariota six times and intercepting him twice. The Dolphins are hoping Hurricane Matthew cooperates enough that this game goes on as scheduled.

New England at Cleveland: Tom Brady’s suspension is over, so we’ll get to see him take a meaningful snap for the first time since the Broncos picked off his two-point conversion attempt in January’s AFC Championship game. That play followed Rob Gronkowski’s last touchdown in an NFL game, since the tight end missed the entire preseason and has just one reception so far, struggling with a hamstring issue. Coming off being shut out for the first time since 2006, the Patriots should rebound against a Browns defense that ranks next-to-last in the AFC in points allowed (28.8). New England also gets DE Rob Ninkovich back from suspension to face a Cleveland offense that will again be led by rookie QB Cody Kessler, who will make his third straight start since Josh McCown (shoulder) remains sidelined. The Browns are 1-14 SU (3-11-1 ATS) in their last 15 games and lost their final contest of the 2015 regular season as a double-digit home underdog to Pittsburgh, failing to cover +13 in a 28-12 setback. New England has won five of the last six in this series.

N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh: After throwing three more interceptions, Ryan Fitzpatrick has now thrown a league-high 10 and New York is at the bottom in giveaways (13) and turnover margin (-10). It’s not entirely Fitzpatrick’s fault, but most of it does fall on his shoulders, which means he could be on a short leash despite Todd Bowles’ continued confidence in his quarterback. Geno Smith hasn’t taken a snap in a regular-season game since his only appearance last year in a 34-20 loss at Oakland on Nov. 1. Pittsburgh has won its last six home games, suffering its last loss on that same Nov. 1 date, Week 8 of the 2015 season. Le’Veon Bell accounted for 178 yards in his return from a three-game suspension but will have to deal with a Jets run defense that ranks second in the NFL in yards allowed per game (70.3) and per carry (3.1). Antonio Brown comes off a two-touchdown night in Sunday’s 43-14 rout of Kansas City and is likely salivating at squaring off against Pittsburgh native Darrelle Revis, who has allowed 81 percent of passes in his direction to be completed and had been tormented by the deep ball even before his latest hamstring tweak, which has him questionable for this one. RB Matt Forte (leg) should play, but the prognosis isn’t as positive for WR Eric Decker (rotator cuff), who is listed as doubtful. The Jets are 1-9 in Pittsburgh and 5-19 all-time against the Steelers, but did win the most recent meeting (20-13, Nov. 2014).

Washington at Baltimore: These teams essentially share a market and have to compete for attention while also being forced to read about one another all the time, so this won’t be your typical interconference matchup. There have only been five meetings since the Ravens were established 20 years ago and all but one of the games have been decided by seven or fewer points. Washington won the 2012 meeting in OT to pull to within 3-2 in the series, but will be playing in Baltimore for just the second time. The Ravens come off their first loss of the season and have been involved in games solely decided by a single possession. The over has prevailed in all four ‘Skins games thus far and the team’s rush defense and points-per-game average ranks among the league’s bottom-five. Baltimore let go of veteran Justin Forsett this week, but look to have turned the page behind Terrance West and Buck Allen.

Philadelphia at Detroit: The Eagles come off a bye week, so all the good vibes and momentum they’ve acquired in becoming the league’s surprise team carried over into October. They’ll hit the road for just the second time this season, but come off dominating a Steelers squad that they just watched annihilate Andy Reid’s Chiefs last Sunday night, so doubt won’t be something they’re packing on this trip. Philly’s defense is strong enough to do the heavy lifting and Carson Wentz looks proficient enough as a rookie to keep the offense from being a liability. Eagles tackle Lane Johnson’s suspension has kicked in, so they’re catching a break with it looking likely that top pass-rusher Ezekiel Ansah (ankle) will miss another game. The Lions were hoping to have standout LB Deandre Levy (quad) back, but ruled him and TE Eric Ebron (ankle) out on Friday. Philadelphia is 7-2 in its last nine against Detroit, but has lost two of the last three meetings after a 45-14 setback at Ford Field last season.

Chicago at Indianapolis: The Bears have seen Brian Hoyer deliver a win and a pair of 300-yard passing games since taking over for the injured Jay Cutler, who is doubtful again here due to a thumb injury. They’re hopeful to hang around despite already suffering so many personnel losses on offense, having proven they can still move the ball enough to win with Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal and Zach Miller as primary targets against a defense that has surrendered 31.3 points per game. Indy will get DE Arthur Jones from suspension and has a healthier group in place, but it got no bye upon returning from its loss to the Jaguars in London, so we’ll see if the team’s legs will hold up all four quarters. Chicago has actually dominated the last two games in this series by a 70-34.

Atlanta at Denver: The Falcons take their three-game winning streak into Denver for a true test of where they are on both sides of the ball. Although they’ve got a two-game edge on the rest of the NFC South and averaging 38.0 points per game, they’ve played some of the worst defensive teams in the league thus far and are about to take aim at one of the best. The asterisk of course, is what they accomplished last week by pouring in 48 to rout Carolina, but the Panthers secondary has been a major disappointment. Matt Ryan has been tremendous and leads all quarterbacks in passing yards, touchdown passes, QB rating and yards per attempt. Aqib Talib has a long history against Julio Jones from his days with the Bucs, so that should be an tremendous matchup. The Broncos are still unsure whether Trevor Siemian will be able to make it back from a shoulder injury, increasing the likelihood that first-round pick Paxton Lynch will make his first career start. Demariyus Thomas, who caught Lynch’s first TD pass last week in Tampa, is still dealing with a hip issue, so Denver could have trouble keeping pace if its defense doesn’t rise to the challenge. The Broncos have won seven of nine over Atlanta dating back to 1985, but lost the last matchup in 2012 in addition to the last meeting at Mile High back in 2004.

Buffalo at Los Angeles: The Rams opened the season by getting blanked 28-0 by the 49ers, but have utilized a perfect run since and are actually now favored to take a lead in the NFC West over idle Seattle. To do so, they must handle business at home against Buffalo, who probably could’ve flown cross-country on the cloud they were on after blanking New England at Foxboro last week. The Bills will need their defense to rise up again since L.A. has scored fewer points than 29 of the other 31 teams but has persevered thanks to its defense’s ability to win up front and make plays in the back. It’s no surprise that this has surpassed Texans/Vikings the game with the lowest total since this will likely be a game dictated by the ground attack and won by whoever makes the fewest mistakes.

San Diego at Oakland: This AFC West clash joins the Monday-nighter as the only divisional games this week, and coming off a brutal letdown of a home loss, looms as a must-win for the visitors. The Chargers literally fumbled a game away against New Orleans and have suffered through more heartbreak due to season-ending injuries and grueling self-induced meltdowns than anyone. CB Jason Verrett was the latest key Charger lost for the season, which should help Derek Carr and the Raiders passing game identify mismatches given all their weapons. Oakland RB Latavius Murray may not be able to play after injuring his foot, which would give rookie Jalen Richard a chance to excel. The Raiders swept the season series from San Diego in 2015 for the first time since 2010.

Cincinnati at Dallas: All eyes here will be on the availability of star WR Dez Bryant (knee), who looks like he may miss his second straight game. My contention is that it will be far more vital to this game’s outcome if RB Jeremy Hill will play for the Bengals. Hill, who leads the team with three TDs and 221 rushing yards but was limited in practice Thursday, is struggling with a chest injury. This game should be decided in the trenches and on the ground, so not having a bruising back like Hill around to allow Giovani Bernard and Rex Burkhead to remain in their roles is going to be essential. Burkhead himself is dealing with a hamstring issue. The Cowboys will be down standout young guard La’el Collins, but should see LT Tyron Smith return from a back injury that kept him out last week. Rookie QB Dak Prescott proved he can win a game without Bryant on the road, although it helped the Cowboy cause that the 49ers lost multiple key defensive players in last week’s win. Dallas has won three of four against Cincy this century, including a 20-19 win in the last meeting in 2012 on a Dan Bailey last-second field goal. The Bengals are playing for the first time at Jerry World and haven’t won in the DFW area since 1988.

N.Y. Giants at Green Bay: Even though the offensive performance New York put on display Monday against mighty Minnesota was a dud, Odell Beckham, Jr.’s theatrics and the fallout from his latest meltdown won’t do anything to hurt ratings in this prime-time affair. Love him or hate him, he’s a magnet for controversy and is set to visit Lambeau Field, where Aaron Rodgers will undoubtedly put pressure on New York’s offense to match his production. If Beckham continues to feel slighted and the Giants struggle, the situation could become combustible. The Packers are looking to strike the match while coming off an early bye week, likely getting key defensive players Clay Matthews, Letroy Guion, Morgan Burnett and Datone Jones back after they missed the win over Detroit. The Giants are hopeful Rashad Jennings can return from a thumb injury after missing Monday’s loss as they attempt to win their fourth straight in this series. These teams have a rich history since New York ended the Brett Favre era with an OT win in the 2007 NFC Championship game. Rodgers beat Eli Manning in their first two head-to-head meetings, but hasn’t won since 2011 and was absent for the most recent encounter in ’13, which means the probable Hall-of-Fame QBs are 2-2 against one another.

Monday, Oct. 10

Tampa Bay at Carolina: Although he has an extra day to make it through concussion protocol, Cam Newton hadn’t practiced through Thursday. Derek Anderson is preparing to make his first start since Dec. 14, 2014 after throwing a pair of TD passes and two picks last week in Atlanta. He last opened under center after Newton’s car accident scare, ironically, against Tampa Bay. Although he’s been on the roster since 2011 and would be playing his 19th game with the Panthers, this would only be his third start. He’s 2-0, beating the Bucs twice in ’14. Having veteran RB Jonathan Stewart back would aid matters for whoever the quarterback is, but he’s just working his way back from a hamstring injury and may still be a week away. Tampa Bay RB Doug Martin is also expected to miss his third straight game with a hammy, so the diminutive Jacquizz Rodgers will be the likely starter. Key defensive lineman Gerald McCoy (calf) and Noah Spence (shoulder) are doubtful for Tampa Bay, so the winner of this key Monday night game may wind up being the team that’s able to adapt best. Both NFC South squads are legitimately banged up, but since the NFL grind has no compassion, one will slip to 1-4 and take up residence in last place. Jameis Winston is 0-2 against Carolina, which has won eight of 10 in this series.