Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 9/1

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Thursday, September 1

Good Luck on day #245 of 2016!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

— Nationals have scored 105 1st-inning runs this year, most in MLB. Boston is next, with 96.

— Steelers claimed QB Zach Mettenberger off waivers from San Diego; they lost Bruce Gradkowski (hamstring).

— Toronto catcher Russell Martin has 21 RBI in his last 15 games.

— Orioles added OFs Drew Stubbs, Michael Bourn in deals yesterday.

— Thoughts, prayers to Craig Sager, who got his third bone marrow transplant Wednesday. Very tough man.

— Vikings re-signed QB Brad Sorensen; he will back up Joel Stave tonite against the Rams. Unsure if Minnesota will add a veteran QB later on.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud

13) NFL rosters have to be cut from 75 to 53 players this weekend; that’s 704 players losing their jobs in a few days. Lot of tough decisions; players cut from better teams will find their way to lesser teams, but the end result will be a lot of guys ending their football dreams and having to find a new career. Tough time for players and coaches alike.

12) Minnesota is going to miss Teddy Bridgewater, but they still have a good defense and there’s this: Vikings attempted 28.4 passes per game LY, fewest in NFL. Shaun Hill is 36 and immobile, so defenses will stack the box against Adrian Peterson and dare Hill to beat them with his arm.

11) The first commercial airplane flight from this country to Cuba in over 50 years took place this week. It has been so long, last time it happened, the passengers flew on a propeller plane.

10) Canadian Football League has nine teams, so on this holiday weekend, the schedule gets weird; Toronto Argonauts played at home Wednesday night, play again Monday in Hamilton.

9) Miami Marlins have a rule than a season ticket holder cannot re-sell more than 30% of their game tickets; they refused to sell season tickets to a fan who had previously sold more than that. Marlins are not exactly fan-friendly, especially considering the fans’ taxes paid for the domed stadium they play in.

8) In wake of Tony Romo’s injury, Dallas Cowboys went from 16-1 to 25-1 in Las Vegas to win the Super Bowl; they had been -3.5 over the Giants next week, but now game is at pick ’em, with Giants expected to be favored by kickoff.

Vikings had been -3 at Tennessee; they’re now a 1-point favorite.

7) Rumors out of LA had the A’s, Cubs as the two major league teams not represented at Tim Tebow’s baseball workout Tuesday. Whole thing was documented ad nauseum on the Interweb, so why bother going?

6) I don’t get people criticizing Tebow for trying baseball; if he isn’t good enough, they tell him to take a hike. If he is good enough, then some team has itself a bargain and a lot of free publicity. Whats wrong with that?

5) Read some articles this summer about Cuban defector Yulieski Gurriel and how great a hitter he is, then Houston gave him $40M+ to sign, so I was eager to add him to my fantasy team. After watching him play a few games now and I know it is still early, but I’m nervous about him and I ain’t playing him $40M+. We’ll see how this goes.

4) Today is September 1; not fond of college football articles predicting which coaches will be fired this season. Good Lord; let a guy lose a game or two before you start replacing him. Writers need to be more creative and find something more interesting to write about.

3) Texas Rangers are 80-54 this season, but if you bet them in the first five innings, they’re only 58-57-19, so they’ve been excellent late in games, winning lot of close ones.

2) A’s traded Coco Crisp to Cleveland for a low-level minor leaguer; there was lot of tension in Oakland recently because Crisp had next year’s $13M option kick in if he played in 130+ games this year, but no way was Oakland letting that happen, and Crisp spoke out publicly against it. A’s reward him for seven years of good service by trading him to a contender.

1– RIP Harry Fujiwara, 82. Better known as Mr Fuji on WWE telecasts, he teamed with Prof. Toru Tanaka as one of the best tag team combinations. Managed by the Grand Wizard of Wrestling, these two scoundrels would cheat by throwing ceremonial salt into their opponents’ eyes.

Good entertainment. RIP, sir.

[Udog]

MLB

Thursday, September 1


CIN 0
LAA 3
MLB's top UNDER umpire was behind the plate tonight for Reds/Angels and UNDER hit again.
Cory Blaser is now 6-19 O-U in 2016.


MIN 4
CLE 8
Indians have now won Kluber's last 8 home starts and have now covered -1.5 in 7 of the 8 wins.


PIT 5
CHC 6
Cubs are now 11-2 in Hammel's 13 home starts in 2016 & have covered -1.5 in 9 of the 11 wins.

[Udog]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, September 1

National League
Marlins @ Mets
Urena is 1-4, 4.81 in six starts this season (under 4-2).

deGrom is 0-2, 12.10 in his last two starts; under is 10-5 in his last 15 starts. Mets won four of his last five home starts.

Marlins lost seven of last nine games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 games. New York won seven of last eight home games; over is 12-4 in their last 16 games.

Padres @ Braves
Cosart is 0-0, 2.16 in his last three starts; four of his five Padre starts went over.
Foltynewicz is 3-0, 3.56 in his last five starts; six of his last seven went over. Braves are 2-5 in his home starts.

Padres are 3-9 in last 12 road games; over is 5-2 in San Diego’s last seven games. Atlanta won three of last four games; over is 11-3 in Braves’ last 14 games.

Giants @ Cubs
Former Cub Samardzija is 2-1, 1.75 in his last four starts; his last seven starts stayed under the total. Giants are 6-3 in his last nine road starts.

Montgomery is 0-0, 3.86 in two starts for the Cubs (over 2-0).

Giants won four of last six games, are 4-10 in last 14 road series openers. Five of Giants’ last six road games stayed under the total. Chicago is 19-3 in last 22 home games; four of its last five games stayed under.

American League
White Sox @ Twins
Quintana is 3-1, 2.55 in his last five starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Chicago is 8-7 in his road starts.

Santana is 3-1, 3.55 in his last five starts; under is 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Minnesota is 2-8 in his home starts.

White Sox lost their last four road games, are 3-12 in last 15 road series openers. Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Minnesota lost its last 13 games, is 5-12 in last 17 home series openers. Over is 8-1 in last nine games at Target Field.

Teams’ record when this pitcher starts:
SD-Atl: Cosart 2-3/1-3; Foltynewicz 8-10
Mia-NY: Urena 2-4; deGrom 12-11
SF-Chi: Samardzija 13-14; Montgomery 2-0/1-1
Chi-Min: Quintana 14-12; Santana 7-17

%age of time pitcher allows 1+ runs in first inning:
SD-Atl: Cosart 5-9; Foltynewicz 4-18
Mia-NY: Urena 1-6; deGrom 3-23
SF-Chi: Samardzija 9-27; Montgomery 1-4
Chi-Min: Quintana 7-26; Santana 7-24

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 8/31
Arizona 23-31-11…..27-36-5…….50-67
Atlanta 26-34-8……20-31-13……46-65
Cubs 35-21-9……42-18-8……..77-39
Reds 18-41-8……29-31-5…….47-72
Colo 25-30-12…..29-32-4……54-62
LA 27-29-9……40-21-8…….67-50
Miami 28-28-10….29-21-16……57-49
Milw 19-37-7……37-24-10…..56-61
Mets 27-41-9……31-24-11……58-55
Philly 21-30-16….23-31-12…….44-59
Pitt 20-36-12…..38-22-4……58-57
St. Louis 30-28-7…..27-28-12……57-56
SD 22-42-4…..28-30-6…….50-72
SF 28-30-7……34-20-13……62-50
Wash 35-20-14…..27-20-17…..62-40

Orioles 24-35-8…….34-26-8……..58-61
Boston 25-27-10……43-18-9…….68-45
White Sox 31-28-8……35-28-3……..66-56
Cleveland 35-26-7……31-26-6……..66-52
Detroit 27-30-8…….30-31-4……..57-61
Astros 26-29-11…..32-26-7……..58-55
KC 25-34-11……27-23-13……52-57
Angels 26-35-7…….24-30-11……50-65
Twins 25-35-12…….21-34-11……46-69
NYY 22-36-8……30-28-10……52-64
A’s 22-38-8……25-29-12……47-66
Seattle 31-29-9……29-22-12……60-51
Tampa Bay 22-29-11……30-30-10…..52-59
Texas 25-34-9…….33-23-9…….58-57
Toronto 40-21-4……..38-27-4…….78-48

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total)
Arizona 23-63……26-69…….49
Atlanta 22-69……14-64…….36
Cubs 24-67……23-68…….47
Reds 25-68……24-65…….49
Colo 13-66…….25-64……38
LA 19-64…….26-70……45
Miami 23-65……17-63…….40
Milw 13-60……28-72……41
Mets 17-64……25-66……42
Philly 10-68……18-63……28
Pitt 15-63…….22-65……37
StL 14-63…….17-66……31
SD 16-68…….24-63……40
SF 10-62……..18-68……28
Wash 29-68…….26-63……55

Orioles 16-69……18-65…….34
Boston 16-60……32-71……..48
White Sox 20-66…..22-68……42
Cleveland 14-68…….24-63……38
Detroit 14-65……21-67…….35
Astros 22-64……23-65……45
KC 21-70…… 19-65……40
Angels 24-68…….24-65…..48
Twins 19-69…….24-66……43
NYY 7-67…….25-66……32
A’s 18-67…….15-65……33
Seattle 17-71……20-63…….37
Tampa Bay 22-62…….23-68…..45
Texas 18-67……20-66……38
Toronto 21-64……28-71…….49

[Udog]

MLB

Thursday, September 1

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Trend Report
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12:10 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. ATLANTA
San Diego is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Diego

7:10 PM
MIAMI vs. NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
NY Mets are 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 8 games when playing Miami

8:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco

8:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games
Chi White Sox are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox


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[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, September 1


Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota

Game 957-958
September 1, 2016 @ 8:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago White Sox
(Quntana) 15.225
Minnesota
(Santana) 14.199
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago White Sox
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago White Sox
-120
8
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago White Sox
(-120); Over

San Francisco @ Chicago Cubs

Game 955-956
September 1, 2016 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
(Smrdzja) 16.864
Chicago Cubs
(Mntgmry) 17.958
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-165
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-165); N/A

Miami @ NY Mets

Game 953-954
September 1, 2016 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
(Urena) 14.405
NY Mets
(deGrom) 16.540
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Mets
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Mets
-200
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Mets
(-200); Under

San Diego @ Atlanta

Game 951-952
September 1, 2016 @ 12:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
(Cosart) 12.145
Atlanta
(Fltynwcz) 16.024
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 4
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-145
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-145); Over

[Udog]

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 1

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SAN DIEGO (55 - 77) at ATLANTA (50 - 83) - 12:10 PM
JARRED COSART (R) vs. MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 12-30 (-13.8 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
ATLANTA is 27-23 (+17.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
SAN DIEGO is 36-41 (+8.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
COSART is 10-5 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 21-43 (-17.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ATLANTA is 21-43 (-17.8 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
ATLANTA is 15-31 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 7-16 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
ATLANTA is 51-71 (-25.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 (+1.5 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.0 Units)

JARRED COSART vs. ATLANTA since 1997
COSART is 3-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.63 and a WHIP of 1.170.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.3 units)

MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
FOLTYNEWICZ is 0-0 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 7.94 and a WHIP of 2.293.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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MIAMI (67 - 66) at NY METS (69 - 64) - 7:10 PM
JOSE URENA (R) vs. JACOB DEGROM (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 22-31 (-14.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
MIAMI is 46-57 (-19.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
NY METS are 57-29 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 38-28 (+12.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DEGROM is 13-4 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MIAMI is 27-21 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
MIAMI is 385-448 (+37.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
NY METS are 69-64 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 113-135 (-56.7 Units) against the money line in home games in September games since 1997.
NY METS are 338-348 (-98.2 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
NY METS are 69-64 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
NY METS are 193-235 (-58.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 10-5 (+4.5 Units) against MIAMI this season
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.5 Units)

JOSE URENA vs. NY METS since 1997
URENA is 0-1 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.667.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

JACOB DEGROM vs. MIAMI since 1997
DEGROM is 4-2 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 3.40 and a WHIP of 1.329.
His team's record is 5-4 (-1.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-6. (-4.8 units)

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SAN FRANCISCO (72 - 60) at CHICAGO CUBS (85 - 47) - 8:05 PM
JEFF SAMARDZIJA (R) vs. MIKE MONTGOMERY (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 69-60 (-7.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 43-44 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-37 (-17.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SAMARDZIJA is 38-54 (-25.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAMARDZIJA is 36-53 (-26.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 25-16 (+9.4 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1573-1670 (-260.9 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 843-779 (-154.2 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1516-1583 (-235.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1153-1240 (-199.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 758-815 (-183.0 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 104-97 (-32.3 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997.
MONTGOMERY is 1-10 (-9.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-1 (+1.6 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

JEFF SAMARDZIJA vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
SAMARDZIJA is 0-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 1.833.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

MIKE MONTGOMERY vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
MONTGOMERY is 0-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.228.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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CHI WHITE SOX (63 - 69) at MINNESOTA (49 - 84) - 8:10 PM
JOSE QUINTANA (L) vs. ERVIN SANTANA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 18-31 (-15.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 20-32 (-14.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
QUINTANA is 10-20 (-13.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MINNESOTA is 49-84 (-24.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 20-35 (-12.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
MINNESOTA is 8-20 (-11.3 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 this season.
MINNESOTA is 25-40 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
MINNESOTA is 10-21 (-12.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
MINNESOTA is 88-117 (-49.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 15-38 (-18.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
MINNESOTA is 47-80 (-23.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MINNESOTA is 31-52 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MINNESOTA is 24-59 (-31.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
MINNESOTA is 18-31 (-14.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SANTANA is 6-16 (-10.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
CHI WHITE SOX is 9-3 (+5.1 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-1.0 Units)

JOSE QUINTANA vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
QUINTANA is 6-5 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 3.76 and a WHIP of 1.282.
His team's record is 7-10 (-6.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 10-7. (+1.8 units)

ERVIN SANTANA vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
SANTANA is 7-9 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 4.14 and a WHIP of 1.266.
His team's record is 10-11 (-2.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-13. (-8.1 units)

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[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet

Thursday, September 1

San Diego at Atlanta, 12:10 PM ET
San Diego: 13-9 SU after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8
Atlanta: 21-43 SU in home games

Miami at NY Mets, 7:10 PM ET
Miami: 5-9 SU as a road underdog of +150 or more
New York: 40-16 SU after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs, 8:05 PM ET
San Francisco: 25-16 SU against left-handed starters
Chicago: 69-79 SU off 2 straight home wins against division rivals

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota, 8:10 PM ET
Chicago: 42-34 SU after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less
Minnesota: 1-9 SU in home games off 3 straight losses against division rivals

[Udog]

MLB

Thursday, September 1


Adrian Johnson is MLB's top OVER ump in 2016 (76.2%) and OVER is 20-5-3 in his last 28 games BHP.
SD/ATL T: 8.5