Mlb probabilities

[Dr. Bubba]

Don't crunch baseball numbers on 15 games /30 teams everyday, but follow over/under/team situation constants and realities and cut out 90% of your work.. PROBABILITY remains true over timespans (with adjustments) ; in 2000 the mean baseball total was a tick above 9. Today it is in the neighborhood of 7½ to 8 .
Logic persists to always consider an OVER unless the pitching strength is too dominating.
PROGRESSIONS work especially when there is neglect to the underdog by public and linesmakers. Wait 3 weeks into the season as teams get out of the spring train mode.
VALUE is always the key in baseball. Let the sabremetric pros who work for baseball organizations crunch their numbers; so if you bet on baseball, there are SYSTEMS around the nature of PROBABILITY that make it easier, and probably more profitable.

Saying all that, play minn BALT UNDER 9 today (santana vs tillman)

[Dr. Bubba]

4/5 plays:
stl PGH 7over - wacha vs niese
sea TEX un9 - iwakum vs mperez

Study SUPERLATIVES instead of looking for "Coco Crisp hits poorly against the Central Division in night games since 2011" meaningless "gems".
TOTALS SUPERLATIVES are highest totals than the consensus norm, lowest totals than the consensus norm.

[joshuab1]

is there a ranking how strong the selection is in this probabilities forecast? or all games are equal weighted?

[Dr. Bubba]

>weighted >ranking

Unless noted , 1 unit. And of course with totals , payouts/juice is different from casino to casino.

I 'm trying to illustrate an EASY way to bet on baseball instead of over analytical. In short, 67% of plays should be on totals...

[joshuab1]

whats todays plays?

[Dr. Bubba]

houston @ NYYANKEES 7over mchugh-pineda

[joshuab1]

i like these calls so far..if you could post a bit EARLIER it would be great!

[Dr. Bubba]

3 GETAWAY DAY situations today

-Unders for all that apply sunday, wednesday, thursday , april thru sept. Getaway Day situations are where BOTH teams have to be in another city the next day (ostensibly, the umpires in the game have to get out of the park and travel too). Of course caution with these, as blindly playing these can level out to a 50% deviation over a period of time (again caution "period of time" is unpredictably long or short) , but patience (no real historical data to back up this claim) can probably yield a better hit than miss long term record.

chicago @ OAKLAND
boston@cleveland
houston @ NYYANKEEs

...being early in the season whereas I prefer limited action, I'll just take:

chicago @ OAK under8.5 latos - graveman

[joshuab1]

getaway day is a different method than what you have been using above, correct?

[Dr. Bubba]

Getaway Day , where both teams play in different cities the very next day, great for shortened gametimes (umpires, players will wanna get out and head to airport), and with the new rules to escalate game pace, even a better chance on UNDERS now, but early in season, pick your spots. Only after May 15th when stats become meaningful you may want to broaden your picks per day.

Picking on LOW total

florida NYMETS 6 over jfernandez vs syndergaard

If this gets to a 3-3 tie somewhere along the line, GUARANTEED a 7th run will score (game can't end in tie).

Thor is solid, but Fernandez suspect (5 runs, 5ip in last start)

[Dr. Bubba]

3 Getaway Day situations today

nyy TORONTO 8.5
atl WASH 7
sf COLO 11.5

I will jump on just one of these, sf (cain) @ COLO (delarosa) undr 11.5 , again odd number UNDERS (hypothetically 6-5 keeps it UNDER) just that more PROBABLE CHANCE

don't like the atlanta WASH under (7 too low), yankees (eovaldi) TORONTO (stroman) getaway under, two potent offences, pitchers don't wow me. Good luck to all.

[Dr. Bubba]

2 good value plays today

ny mets philly 8.5ov - colon-hellickson
TEXAS -118 houston - Hamels- Fister

Hamels on an incredible winning streak since last season, very nice price at home $$$

[Dr. Bubba]

Getaway Day situations today 4/24:

tb NYY 7½ -- smyly-pineda
tex CHW 9 holland - latos
balt KC 9 wright-ventura
stl SD 7½ leak -rea
bos HOU 9 owens- feldman

...i will not play the tbay-nyy game (don't trust the ballpark, the pitching), but put me down for:


tex CHW un9 holland-latos
balt KC under9 wright-ventura
stl SD under7½ leak -rea
bos HOU under9 owens- feldman

JACKWAGON PROGRESSION ALERT TODAY:
If you don't play the first two games of a progression for one reason or another, but decide to jump in on the 3rd /last leg of the progression, then today we have a great setting texas @ Chisox . Texas is a good club, will won't want to get swept, Holland solid

texas +117 CHW holland- latos

[Dr. Bubba]

trying another JACKWAGON PROGRESSION with Texas , they are in a 4 game tailspin, losing last nite in the first game of series vs Yanks. They face sabathia tomorrow (m. perez) , so they'll most likely be underdogs again if tonite doesnt pan out.
TEX +112 nyy ajgriffin-severino

Keuchel hasnt performed well on the road, like the home dog on:
SEATTLE +123 hou - karns-keuchel

low total with some pretty good hitting despite Hendricks-Nelson good WHIPS:
milw CHIC 7over