Tweet
National League Central betting preview: Is it finally the Cubs year?
Despite being such a competitive division last year, the Central seems to be the Cubs to lose in 2016.
Is this the year the Cubs finally break the "Curse of the Billy Goat" and capture their first World Series title since 1908? Well the expectations in Chicago are enormous this season and the question will be can the Cubs hold up to the pressure of those lofty expectations.
Chicago Cubs (2015: 97-65, 1,751 units, 71-81-10 O/U)
Division odds: -240
Season win total: 93.5
Why bet the Cubs: This team continues to improve, including a 97-win playoff appearance last year. The Cubs strengthened their offensive lineup and pitching rotation by acquiring OF Jason Heyward and SP John Lackey from division rival St. Louis in the offseason. Chicago now has one of the best rotations in the league along with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.
Why not bet the Cubs: Chicago finished last season with eight straight wins, but they still finished only 3rd in this division as the NL Central is extremely competitive with the Cardinals and Pirates. Chicago was a fortunate 13-5 in extra inning games which inflated their overall record. The Cubs' X_WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was only 90-72 last year.
Season win total pick: Over 93.5 wins
Cincinnati Reds (2015: 64-98, -3,110 unit, 83-73-6 O/U)
Division odds: +10,000
Season win total: 70.5
Why bet the Reds: The Reds were a bit unlucky in close games last season, including just 5-12 in extra inning affairs. In fact, Cincinnati's X_WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was 69-93 last year. The team has replaced several unproductive players in the lineup with younger prospects, so there is a level of uncertainty on this roster which could surprise.
Why not bet the Reds: The pitching rotation looks horrible with starters such as Homer Bailey (5.56 ERA), Anthony DeSclafani (4.05 ERA), Raisel Iglesias (4.15 ERA), John Lamb (5.80 ERA), and Michael Lorenzen (5.40 ERA). They also lost 3B Todd Frazier (35 HR, 89 RBI) and closer Aroldis Chapman (1.63 ERA, 33 saves) during the offseason.
Season win total pick: Under 70.5 wins
Milwaukee Brewers (2015: 68-94, -2,081 units, 81-69-12 O/U
Division odds: +6,000
Season win total: 70
Why bet the Brewers: They have some young talent and one of the better farm systems in the league as new general manager David Sterns helped rebuild the Houston Astros. Milwaukee's starting rotation has potential as both Matt Garza and Wily Peralta should pitch better this season after underachieving last year. RHP Taylor Jungmann showed promise with 107 strikeouts in 119 innings pitched as a rookie last year.
Why not bet the Brewers: Milwaukee has a very young and unproven lineup in a very difficult division that saw the Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs win a combined 295 regular season games last year. The Brewers were a competitive 16-16 in one-run games last season, but they went a horrendous 52-78 in all other games.
Season win total pick: Over 70 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates (2015: 98-64, 2,135 units, 75-75-12 O/U)
Division odds: +450
Season win totals: 86.5
Why bet the Pirates: They had the second most wins (98) in the league last season and they had the best overall offense in NL Central, leading the division in team batting average, on-base percentage, hits and runs scored. CF Andrew McCutchen remains one of the best all-around players in the league. RHP Gerrit Cole (2.60 ERA/1.09 WHIP) has become a legitimate ace, and the Pirates acquired LHP Jon Niese from the Mets in the offseason.
Why not bet the Pirates: The Pirates were fortunate to go 36-17 in one-run games last year and will likely regress this season in close games. Pittsburgh's X_WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was only 92-70 last year, so the team overachieved. Meanwhile, they did not make enough offseason acquisitions to keep pace with the Cubs and Cardinals this season.
Season win total pick: Under 86.5 wins
St. Louis Cardinals (2015: 100-62, 2,247 units, 66-85-11 O/U)
Division odds: +400
Season win total: 87.5
Why bet the Cardinals: They have five straight playoff appearances, including three straight division titles. Last season they became the first team to win 100 regular season games in the past four years, despite missing their best starting pitcher Adam Wainwright for five months due to an Achilles injury. Wainwright is now healthy this season and St. Louis have a dominant bullpen along with closer Trevor Rosenthal.
Why not bet the Cardinals: The depth of the starting pitching rotation is a concern. Wainwright missed five months last season, plus Jaime Garcia and Carlos Martinez had recent injuries. Lance Lynn will miss this entire season due to Tommy John surgery, while RHP John Lackey and OF Jason Heyward were both acquired by division rival Chicago this offseason.
Season win total pick: Under 87.5 wins
Despite being such a competitive division last year, the Central seems to be the Cubs to lose in 2016.
Is this the year the Cubs finally break the "Curse of the Billy Goat" and capture their first World Series title since 1908? Well the expectations in Chicago are enormous this season and the question will be can the Cubs hold up to the pressure of those lofty expectations.
Chicago Cubs (2015: 97-65, 1,751 units, 71-81-10 O/U)
Division odds: -240
Season win total: 93.5
Why bet the Cubs: This team continues to improve, including a 97-win playoff appearance last year. The Cubs strengthened their offensive lineup and pitching rotation by acquiring OF Jason Heyward and SP John Lackey from division rival St. Louis in the offseason. Chicago now has one of the best rotations in the league along with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.
Why not bet the Cubs: Chicago finished last season with eight straight wins, but they still finished only 3rd in this division as the NL Central is extremely competitive with the Cardinals and Pirates. Chicago was a fortunate 13-5 in extra inning games which inflated their overall record. The Cubs' X_WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was only 90-72 last year.
Season win total pick: Over 93.5 wins
Cincinnati Reds (2015: 64-98, -3,110 unit, 83-73-6 O/U)
Division odds: +10,000
Season win total: 70.5
Why bet the Reds: The Reds were a bit unlucky in close games last season, including just 5-12 in extra inning affairs. In fact, Cincinnati's X_WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was 69-93 last year. The team has replaced several unproductive players in the lineup with younger prospects, so there is a level of uncertainty on this roster which could surprise.
Why not bet the Reds: The pitching rotation looks horrible with starters such as Homer Bailey (5.56 ERA), Anthony DeSclafani (4.05 ERA), Raisel Iglesias (4.15 ERA), John Lamb (5.80 ERA), and Michael Lorenzen (5.40 ERA). They also lost 3B Todd Frazier (35 HR, 89 RBI) and closer Aroldis Chapman (1.63 ERA, 33 saves) during the offseason.
Season win total pick: Under 70.5 wins
Milwaukee Brewers (2015: 68-94, -2,081 units, 81-69-12 O/U
Division odds: +6,000
Season win total: 70
Why bet the Brewers: They have some young talent and one of the better farm systems in the league as new general manager David Sterns helped rebuild the Houston Astros. Milwaukee's starting rotation has potential as both Matt Garza and Wily Peralta should pitch better this season after underachieving last year. RHP Taylor Jungmann showed promise with 107 strikeouts in 119 innings pitched as a rookie last year.
Why not bet the Brewers: Milwaukee has a very young and unproven lineup in a very difficult division that saw the Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs win a combined 295 regular season games last year. The Brewers were a competitive 16-16 in one-run games last season, but they went a horrendous 52-78 in all other games.
Season win total pick: Over 70 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates (2015: 98-64, 2,135 units, 75-75-12 O/U)
Division odds: +450
Season win totals: 86.5
Why bet the Pirates: They had the second most wins (98) in the league last season and they had the best overall offense in NL Central, leading the division in team batting average, on-base percentage, hits and runs scored. CF Andrew McCutchen remains one of the best all-around players in the league. RHP Gerrit Cole (2.60 ERA/1.09 WHIP) has become a legitimate ace, and the Pirates acquired LHP Jon Niese from the Mets in the offseason.
Why not bet the Pirates: The Pirates were fortunate to go 36-17 in one-run games last year and will likely regress this season in close games. Pittsburgh's X_WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was only 92-70 last year, so the team overachieved. Meanwhile, they did not make enough offseason acquisitions to keep pace with the Cubs and Cardinals this season.
Season win total pick: Under 86.5 wins
St. Louis Cardinals (2015: 100-62, 2,247 units, 66-85-11 O/U)
Division odds: +400
Season win total: 87.5
Why bet the Cardinals: They have five straight playoff appearances, including three straight division titles. Last season they became the first team to win 100 regular season games in the past four years, despite missing their best starting pitcher Adam Wainwright for five months due to an Achilles injury. Wainwright is now healthy this season and St. Louis have a dominant bullpen along with closer Trevor Rosenthal.
Why not bet the Cardinals: The depth of the starting pitching rotation is a concern. Wainwright missed five months last season, plus Jaime Garcia and Carlos Martinez had recent injuries. Lance Lynn will miss this entire season due to Tommy John surgery, while RHP John Lackey and OF Jason Heyward were both acquired by division rival Chicago this offseason.
Season win total pick: Under 87.5 wins