Announcement

**Udog** · 10-21-2015, 08:34 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six of the more interesting NFL games this weekend.....

-- Seahawks (-6) @ 49ers-- Seattle RBs were racing cars after practice Tuesday.

-- Jets @ Patriots (-9.5)-- Battle for first place in AFC East.

-- Saints @ Colts (-4.5)-- Hopefully no fake punts in Indy this week.

-- Cowboys @ Giants (-4)-- First rematch of season; Dallas won first meeting.

-- Eagles @ Panthers (-3)-- Unbeaten Carolina finally on national TV

-- Ravens @ Cardinals (-7)-- Arizona was -3 in turnovers in both losses.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Bottom 5, top 8 in the NFL........

32) Jaguars-- Outscored 93-47 in second half this season.

31) Titans-- Have one first half TD in their last four games.

30) Buccaneers-- Teams struggle when they play a rookie QB.

29) Chiefs-- Lost last five games, Charles is out for year; just 20-72 on 3rd down.

28) Ravens-- No takeaways in last three games, all five losses by 6 or less points.

8) Jets-- Ran ball for 207-221 yards last two games; play for first place Sunday. .

7) Falcons-- 5-1, but trailed in 4th quarter in five of the six games.

6) Cardinals-- Palmer can be rattled by pash rush; they were -3 in turnovers on both losses this season.

5) Broncos-- Offense has nine TDs, defense three; one win by more than 7 points.

4) Panthers-- Scored 10+ points in nine of ten halves this season.

3) Packers-- First two games after bye are at unbeatens; Denver/Carolina.

2) Bengals-- 27 for last 56 on 3rd down; scored 24+ points in every game.

1) Patriots-- Scored 21 TDs on 53 drives; a juggernaut to this point.

**Udog** · 10-21-2015, 08:34 AM

Don't dare let these three spot bet opportunities pass you by

Memphis upset Ole Miss last week but run the risk of a letdown spot visiting Tulsa this week as an 11-point favorite.

Lookahead spot

The Northern Illinois Huskies are chasing down the Toledo Rockets in the MAC West and take on the 6-0 Rockets in Week 8, but before that game NIU is giving heaps of points to the Eastern Michigan Eagles at home this weekend. Books have installed the Huskies as 28-point favorites in DeKalb Saturday.

Northern Illinois has dealt with a mountain chalk like this already this season, covering against FCS Murray State as 29.5-point home chalk in Week 2. And that game preceded a meeting with the defending national champs, Ohio State. However, EMU has covered in five of its last six trips to NIU and the road team is a dominant 11-3 ATS in the last 14 matchups between these MAC rivals.

Letdown spot

The Memphis Tigers put their name among the top programs in college football with an impressive upset over Ole Miss this past weekend, beating the Rebels 37-24 as 10-point home underdogs Saturday. The victory over Mississippi improves the Tigers to 6-0 SU and 3-2 ATS but also sets them up for a classic letdown in Week 8.

Memphis follows that big home win with a road trip to 3-3 Tulsa, which is getting 11 points from oddsmakers. The Golden Hurricane have lost three of their last four games, including a 30-17 defeat to East Carolina but did manage to cover in that game as 14-point pups. Memphis hasn’t had much luck against Tulsa in the past – at least not from a betting standpoint – covering just once in their last six meetings.

Schedule spot

Who wants to leave the cozy warmth of the desert for the damp and dank late-October weather on the East Coast? No one, and definitely not the Arizona Coyotes. Arizona crosses the country for a massive eastern tour, starting in New Jersey Tuesday – the first of five straight road games and one of 16 of the Coyotes’ next 23 games to be played away from Gila River Arena. That span takes the team in mid-December.

Arizona follows Tuesday’s game with the Devils by making the move to MSG to play the Rangers Thursday, then to Ottawa Saturday. The final two games of this trek take the Coyotes to Toronto and Boston Monday and Tuesday, closing a stretch of four games in six days. Arizona has won both road games already this season, at Pittsburgh and Anaheim.

**Udog** · 10-21-2015, 08:38 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 21

American League
Royals vs Blue Jays
Volquez is 1-1, 2.04 in his last three starts (under 3-1 last four).

Estrada is 2-1, 2.45 in his last six starts (under 4-1-1).

Royals won 11 of their last 14 games (over 6-2 last eight).

Blue Jays lost four of last six games with KC; home side won ten of last 13 series games. Toronto is 4-5 in playoffs (over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games).

National League
Mets vs Cubs
Matz is 0-1, 5.06 in his last two starts (under 4-1 last five).

Hammel is 3-2, 5.50 in his last eight starts (over 6-1 last seven).

New York won seven of last nine games (under 9-2-1 in last twelve).

Chicago is 0-3 in this series after winning previous nine games with the Mets (under 8-2-2); over is 3-2-1 in their last six games.

MLB

Wednesday, October 21

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Trend Report
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4:07 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. TORONTO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Kansas City

8:07 PM
NY METS vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
NY Mets are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games when playing NY Mets
Chi Cubs are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games

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**Udog** · 10-21-2015, 09:59 AM

MLB
Dunkel

LCS

Kansas City @ Toronto

Game 967-968
October 21, 2015 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
(Volquez) 18.531
Toronto
(Estrada) 15.654
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 3
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-145
9
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+125); Over

NY Mets @ Chicago Cubs

Game 965-966
October 21, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Mets
(Matz) 16.966
Chicago Cubs
(Hammel) 15.401
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Mets
by 1 1/2
6 1/2
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Mets
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
NY Mets
N/A

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 21

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NY METS (96 - 74) at CHICAGO CUBS (101 - 69) - 8:05 PM
STEVEN MATZ (L) vs. JASON HAMMEL (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 7-3 (+3.7 Units) against NY METS this season
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.7 Units)

STEVEN MATZ vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.

JASON HAMMEL vs. NY METS since 1997
HAMMEL is 0-3 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.296.
His team's record is 2-3 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)

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KANSAS CITY (101 - 70) at TORONTO (97 - 74) - 4:05 PM
EDINSON VOLQUEZ (R) vs. MARCO ESTRADA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 21-6 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 52-36 (+9.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ESTRADA is 22-13 (+12.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 101-70 (+22.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 46-39 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 10-3 (+7.8 Units) against the money line in October games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 33-17 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 68-42 (+21.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KANSAS CITY is 17-7 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 59-43 (+10.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
KANSAS CITY is 92-68 (+19.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 47-31 (+15.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
VOLQUEZ is 23-12 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 6-5 (+2.1 Units) against TORONTO this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.7 Units)

EDINSON VOLQUEZ vs. TORONTO since 1997
VOLQUEZ is 1-4 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.582.
His team's record is 2-5 (-3.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-3. (-0.4 units)

MARCO ESTRADA vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
ESTRADA is 1-2 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.57 and a WHIP of 1.075.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-0. (+3.0 units)

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**Udog** · 10-21-2015, 11:56 AM

MLB

Wednesday, October 21

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League Championship doubleheader betting preview: Royals at Blue Jays, Mets at Cubs
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Both the Royals and the Mets will try to advance to the Fall Classic Wednesday.

Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays (-140, 9.0)

Royals lead series 3-1

The Kansas City Royals attempt to win their second consecutive American League pennant when they visit the Toronto Blue Jays for Game 5 of the AL Championship Series on Wednesday afternoon. Kansas City holds a 3-1 series lead after pounding the Blue Jays 14-2 on Tuesday.

The Royals racked up four runs in the first inning and nine over the final three frames while delivering such a beating that Toronto used infielder Chad Pennington to finish the contest - the first primarily position player to pitch in the postseason. Alcides Escobar (2-for-3, four RBIs) and Lorenzo Cain (2-for-3, two RBIs) continued their strong production in the series, while Ben Zobrist and Alex Rios each homered. "We're a good offensive team," Kansas City first baseman Eric Hosmer said. "Our style of play is a little different. We like to use our legs and be athletic, but when we come to some of these parks where the fences aren't as deep, we've got some guys that can put the ball in the seats." The Blue Jays have scored 16 runs in the series, with 11 - and all three of their homers - coming in their lone victory.

TV: 4:07 p.m. ET, FS1, RSN (Toronto)

LINE HISTORY: The Blue Jays opened at -128 and have been bet up to -145. The total has remained at its opening number of 9.0.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Edinson Volquez (1-1, 2.31 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Marco Estrada (1-1, 3.09)

Volquez was superb in his Game 1 victory, allowing only two hits over six scoreless innings. That performance was in Kansas City and he now tries to duplicate it in Toronto, a better ballpark for hitters. "It's kind of a small ballpark and the balls just fly," Volquez said in his press conference. "It's not like you play in Kansas City, we've got a big ballpark, and the ball doesn't carry much. Here, the ball is flying everywhere."

Estrada lost against Volquez in the series opener as he allowed three runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings. The Royals' penchant for being contact hitters makes it a tough assignment for Estrada, who typically doesn't strike out more than five batters in a game. "If he pitches his game and he's on, we feel pretty good," Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said in a press conference. "But they're different over there, meaning it's never an easy outing for a pitcher because they battle you."

TRENDS:

* Royals are 7-1 in Volquez's last eight starts versus the American League East.
* Blue Jays are 5-2 in Estrada's last seven home starts.
* Over is 5-1 in the Royals last six games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Estrada's last five starts versus the American League Central.

New York Mets at Chicago Cubs (-115, 9.0)

Mets lead series 3-0

The New York Mets are in position to finish off a sweep on Wednesday, when they visit the Chicago Cubs for Game 4 of the National League Championship Series. New York has limited Chicago to five runs while winning the first three games and Daniel Murphy has homered in each contest to run his postseason streak to five, tying Carlos Beltran (2004 with Houston) for the major-league record.

New York is one victory away from reaching the World Series for the first time since 2000 and will send rookie Steven Matz to the mound. None of the Mets players want to hear any chatter about this series being over, particularly captain David Wright. "Because we understand just like we've won the first three games, these guys can win the next three games very easily," Wright said after going 3-for-4 and scoring twice in Game 3. "This is an excellent team, and you give them room to win a game or streak along a couple good innings, and they're going to get all the confidence in the world and expect to beat us three in a row. So it's as simple as that." Chicago won all seven regular-season meetings with the Mets, but the duo of Kris Bryant (2-for-11) and Anthony Rizzo (2-for-10) has been quiet in the NLCS.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: The Cubs have opened as -115 home favorites with the total opening at 9.0.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Mets LH Steven Matz (0-1, 5.40 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Jason Hammel (0-0, 6.00)

Matz lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Division Series as he gave up three runs and six hits in five innings. That contest marked the 24-year-old's first defeat in seven major-league outings, and manager Terry Collins feels he's just beginning to reach his potential. "This guy's got plus stuff, he's got a plus fastball," Collins said at a press conference. "He's going to be 94 to 97 (miles per hour). He's got a plus curveball, he's got a good changeup. Now it's a matter of going out there every five days through the course of the season."

Hammel had a rough outing in the Division Series against St. Louis as he gave up two runs, three hits and three walks before being pulled after three innings. He denied that he felt extra pressure competing on the postseason stage during his press conference on Tuesday and was asked if this start is the biggest of his life "Of my life? Obviously, the deeper you get into the playoffs, yeah, I guess you could say that they're the most difficult in my life," Hammel said. "But honestly, I'm not really worried about that. I'm not thinking of it that way. It's the New York Mets versus the Cubs."

TRENDS:

* Mets are 7-0 in their last seven games versus the National League Central.
* Cubs are 0-6 in their last six League Championship games.
* Under is 4-0-1 in the Mets last five games overall.
* Overs is 6-1 in Hammels' last seven starts overall.

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**Udog** · 10-21-2015, 11:56 AM

MLB

Wednesday, October 21

Not surprisingly Royals, Mets big faves to win World Series

Both the Kansas City Royals and New York Mets are just one win away from the World Series, and it's no surprise they are the co-favorites to win it all.

According to the Westgate LV Superbook, the Royals and the Mets are both 11/10 to win the Fall Classic.

The Royals lead the Blue Jays 3-1, with Game 5 tonight in Toronto. While the Mets lead the Cubs 3-0, with Game 4 also tonight.

Cubs' Hammel takes relaxed approach for Game 4

CHICAGO -- Another big series, another Game 4 for Jason Hammel.

The Cubs right-hander takes the mound Wednesday for his second postseason start after helping Chicago dispatch the St. Louis Cardinals in last week's National League Division Series.

It is an even bigger challenge this time, as Hammel gets the call with the Cubs trailing 3-0 to the New York Mets in the best-of-seven National League Championship Series. The Mets beat the Cubs 5-2 in Game 3 on Tuesday at Wrigley Field.

Hammel, who went 10-7 with a 3.74 ERA during 31 regular-season starts, shrugs off the pressure.

"Pressure is what you make of it," he said Tuesday. "I honestly believe if I'm pressuring myself, I'm worried about the wrong thing."

Hammel is appearing in the postseason with his fourth different team. He also reached the playoffs with the Colorado Rockies (2009), Baltimore Orioles (2012) and Oakland A's (2014).

In the Cubs' clincher in Game 4 against the Cardinals on Oct. 13, Hammel threw three innings of two-run ball. He was not involved in the decision in a game Chicago won 6-4.

Hammel is 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA in postseason appearances, including four starts. Last year with Oakland, he faced one batter in the 2014 American League wild-card game and allowed a hit.

Hammel pitched against the Mets once this year, getting a no-decision while pitching eight innings in a 2-1 Chicago walk-off victory on May 13.

"I'll be prepared with my game plan, go back and watch what I did when I faced the Mets earlier this year, and we'll kind of go from there," he said. "They are a little bit different of a team than they were earlier this year when we faced them, but nothing that I can't prepare for."

The 33-year-old veteran is 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA against the Mets in five career starts, working 29 1/3 innings while striking out 19 and walking five.

Mets trust Matz to deliver NLCS clincher

CHICAGO -- In the eighth start of his major league career, Steven Matz will attempt to pitch the New York Mets into the World Series on Wednesday.

The 24-year-old left-hander takes the mound with seven days of rest as the Mets aim to complete a four-game National League Championship Series sweep of the Chicago Cubs.

"We've got to come out tomorrow and Steve Matz has got to give us a game," Mets manager Terry Collins said. "Our bullpen is pretty rested, and if Steven can get us five or six (innings), we've got a lot of answers in the bullpen for any matchups we need."

Matz took a 3-1 loss last week in Game 4 of the NL Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing three runs in five innings.

A Long Island native who went 4-0 in six regular-season starts this year, Matz spent seven weeks on the disabled list due to a torn left lat muscle before being activated by the Mets on Sept. 2. However, he struggled with back soreness in late September and was scratched from his final two scheduled regular-season starts.

The occasionally erratic schedule since returning hasn't bothered him.

"No, I still feel set to go," Matz said Tuesday. "We've been doing this before. We've been on a six-man (rotation), been on a five-man, we've had days off. ... (I) feel ready to go."

Matz has never faced the Cubs, but he expects to be a quick learner.

"I don't really have a history with them," he said before Game 3. "They look like a tough lineup. They're a bunch of young, fiery guys. Matt (Harvey) and Noah (Syndergaard) have done a great job the first two games, so I'm just going to watch Jacob (deGrom on Tuesday), see how he attacks them and try to just build off those guys."

Matz at least got a chance for an up-close look at Wrigley Field.

Upon arrival in Chicago on Monday, he and his teammates walked around the park and even climbed atop the manually operated center field scoreboard.

"We got up to the scoreboard, checked out all the scenery and stuff," he said. "It was pretty cool."

Jays' Estrada seeks improved command in Game 5

TORONTO -- Marco Estrada said his Game 5 start on Wednesday comes down to location.

The Toronto Blue Jays hope he is the right guy in the right place as they try to avoid elimination in the American League Championship Series against the Kansas City Royals.

"I think the key for me (Wednesday) is being able to locate my fastball more so than my off-speed pitches," the right-hander said Tuesday.

The Blue Jays lost 14-2 Tuesday in Game 4 as the Royals took a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series.

The matchup Wednesday is a repeat of Game 1, when Estrada allowed three runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings when facing right-hander Edinson Volquez in a 5-0 Kansas City victory.

"The first time around, I didn't really have four-seam location," Estrada said. "I didn't have the down-and-away (pitch) as much as I wanted to. And those were the pitches that really got hit. So for me, the most important thing is to be able to establish the fastball location and then work off that."

If he puts the fastball in the right spots, it make his changeup a devastating pitch.

The Royals recorded 15 hits in each of the first two games played at Rogers Centre, with each team winning once.

"I faced them twice during the regular season," Estrada said. "They're just like any other team where some guys take and some guys don't.

"But pitching against them in the playoffs, it's been a lot different. At least my game was. They're really aggressive, and I've noticed that they've kept that up."

Estrada said he did not need a video session to determine the problem.

"I have a pretty good idea of what I'm doing," he said. "Those things just happen, and it was one of those days for me. I did go to the bullpen and threw a lot of fastballs, just working on the down and away. ... I feel pretty good and confident about that pitch."

Looking at the big picture of the series, Toronto manager John Gibbons said, "The key is to get a good outing out of Marco and we'll see where it takes us. Not a more important game this season, really. I know these guys will be ready."

Volquez aims to carry Royals into World Series

TORONTO -- Ned Yost stands by the adage that momentum in baseball depends on the next starting pitcher.

Based on the identity of his starter for Game 5 of the American League Championship Series on Wednesday, the Kansas City manager can feel good about the chances of the Royals clinching a second consecutive berth in the World Series.

Right-hander Edinson Volquez, who held the Toronto Blue Jays to two hits and four walks in a 5-0 win in Game 1, is set to start the potential clincher Wednesday.

Kansas City took a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series with a 14-2 pounding of Toronto on Tuesday in Game 4.

When he was asked Tuesday if he felt that Volquez has a chance to repeat that performance Wednesday, Yost said, "You hope that he can. That's why the game is so wonderful, it's not a cookie-cutter game. You don't know what you're going to get until you get out there, find out what's working and how your command is, and if you're duplicating your mechanics and being able to repeat. We'll find out tomorrow."

Volquez was 13-9 with a 3.55 ERA during the regular season, and he is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA in the postseason.

He feels that facing the Blue Jays for a second consecutive start will present a challenge.

"It's not easy," he said Tuesday. "That's a good question. I think facing this guy last week, and I've got to face him again tomorrow, it is very important for me to execute my pitches and keep the ball down, stick with the plan and just pitch in and out. Be consistent and stay aggressive with my pitches. We'll see what happens."

Volquez said Game 1 was one of those days where everything was working.

"That's one of the best feelings in the world," he said. "That day was like -- I had a great feeling. I knew I'd pitch a really good game. I didn't know it would end the way it did, but I had a good feeling that day that I would pitch a really good game, and I did."

**Udog** · 10-21-2015, 02:17 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, October 21

NY Mets at Chicago Cubs, 8:05 PM EDT
New York: 9-23 SU as a road underdog of +100 to +150
Chicago: 73-41 SU as a favorite of -110 or higher

Kansas City at Toronto, 4:05 PM EDT
Kansas City: 17-7 SU in playoff games
Toronto: 19-25 SU after 2 or more consecutive overs

Announcement

Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/21

Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/21

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