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**Udog** · 10-19-2015, 08:50 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
six most popular picks in Week 1 season record: 19-16-1

6) Giants +4.5 (384)-- Lost 11 of last 14 games against the Eagles.

5) Lions -3 (417)-- Lot of people have faith in this winless favorite. T

4) Bills +3.5 (470)-- Only QBs to beat Buffalo both won multiple Super Bowls. L

3) Vikings -4 (547)-- Minnesota lost its last five post-bye games. W

2) Cardinals -3 (768)-- Bruce Arians against his former employer. L

1) Patriots -7.5 (849)-- NE scored 47 ppg in last four games vs Colts. L

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday.......

13) Broncos 26, Browns 23 OT-- Denver is 6-0; their defense scored another TD, the offense also scored one TD, is now just 12-52 on 3rd down last four games. Browns played third game in row decided on last play- they lost two of them.

12) Bengals 34, Bills 21-- Cincy had huge 26-yard advantage in field position; every Buffalo drive started 80+ yards from goal line. Unbeaten Bengals have a bye week coming up, before they go to Pittsburgh in Week 8.

11) Vikings 16, Chiefs 10-- Minnesota is 3-0 at home, 0-2 on road; Chiefs lost last five games. KC had only three points on two red zone drives- they had only 51 yards in first half. Rookie WR Diggs caught seven balls for 129 yards for Minnesota.

10) Texans 31, Jaguars 20-- Houston was +3 in turnovers; they had two takeaways in first five games combined. Divisional home favorites are now 3-14 vs spread this season. Jaguars head to London next week to play the Bills.

9) Lions 37, Bears 34 OT-- Detroit gets first win in weird game where Chicago had a 15-yard edge in field position but was -2 in turnovers. Bears' last two TD drives were both less than 25 yards. Detroit kicked a FG at 2:46 mark to cut Chicago lead to 31-27, a poor decision, but both teams scored after that, to send game to OT.

8) Jets 34, Redskins 20-- Washington is very banged up, missing two starters on OL, the guy who broke Geno Smith's jaw should get a bonus from Jets, as Fitzpatrick has been very solid in this 4-1 start by Gang Green. Jets averaged 9.7 ypa here; only TDs by Washington came on a 37-yard drive and a blocked punt.

7) Mets 4, Cubs 1-- Chicago is in deep trouble after ace Arrieta lost; series moves to Wrigley Field Tuesday night. Murphy homered again for the Mets.

6) Steelers 25, Cardinals 13-- 3rd-string QB Jones came off bench to spark Steelers; he is better than Vick, who pulled hamstring. Arizona has two losses; in both games, they were -3 in turnovers. Redbirds had 469-310 edge in TY, but their 111 penalty yards all seemed to come at key times.

5) Dolphins 38, Titans 10-- Miami's defense was supposedly unhappy with old DC who got fired; they had six sacks, four takeaways vs rookie QB Mariota, as Tennessee finishes three-game homestand 0-3. AFC South teams are 4-9 vs spread in non-division games this season.

4) Panthers 27, Seahawks 23-- Carolina had two TDs in last 3:55, scoring winning TD with 0;32 left; Seahawks have now had a 4th quarter lead in their last five losses. Unbeaten Panthers are now 13-5 vs spread in last 18 games as a road underdog.

3) Packers 27, Chargers 20-- Rivers threw for 503 yards but San Diego is now 0-3 on road, though they're 14-7-1 vs spread in last 22 games as road dog. Green Bay is now 6-0 heading into its bye week; this was first game they didn't cover this year.

2) 49ers 25, Ravens 20-- Niners are giving up 13.3 ppg at home, 40 ppg on road; they averaged 10.9 ypa vs Baltimore defense that has seen better days. Ravens are 1-5 and in a freefall; they were -2 in turnovers, had only 13 points in three red zone drives.

1) Patriots 34, Colts 27-- Game swung on ill-conceived fake punt by Indy in third quarter; two of their three wins this year cae with 40-year old backup QB Hasselbeck playing. Unsure why they let coach Pagano coach this season as a lame duck; if they don't want him, should've fired him last winter and moved on.

Red-hot Clemson opens as 5-point road favorite at Miami

Arguably, Clemson’s biggest road test the rest of the way is this week at Miami.

There hasn’t been a whole lot of talk about Clemson through the first seven weeks of the 2015 college football season. That could change soon if the Tigers keep it up.

Clemson is now 6-0 SU (3-3 ATS), and although Florida State looms large a couple of weeks from now, that game is at home. Arguably, Clemson’s biggest road test the rest of the way is this week at Miami.

The Tigers already own a victory over a solid Notre Dame squad, and on Saturday, they coasted past Boston College 34-17, failing to cash as 18-point chalk when BC put up an otherwise meaningless touchdown with 1:29 left in the game.

Miami (4-2 SU and ATS) bounced back from a pair of losses – including a near upset at Florida State – to best Virginia Tech 30-20 Saturday laying 3 points at home.

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas, made Clemson a 5-point favorite.

“Clemson seems to have put it somewhat together after a couple of nailbiters against Louisville and Notre Dame,” Avello said. “One of the Tigers’ major issues has been turnovers, and because of that, their opponents are never out of it. Miami needs this ‘W’ to stay in the ACC Coastal Division hunt."

Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi Rebels (-4.5)

Texas A&M (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) just hit its first bump in the road this season, though that bump came in the form of perennial national title contender Alabama.

The Aggies got thumped 41-23 as a 5-point home underdog Saturday.

Still, that doesn’t take A&M out of the SEC title picture yet. Mississippi, however, already got trounced at Florida (38-10 giving 6.5 points), and on Saturday, the Rebels were dealt a shocking 37-24 nonconference loss at Memphis as a 10-point favorite.

“Both of these teams’ national championship hopes were deflated on Saturday,” Avello said. “Texas A&M at least had an excuse, playing college football's elite, but Ole Miss didn't and took Memphis too lightly after having a 14-0 lead. The Aggies go on the road for the first time this year, where they have struggled in past years.”

Utah Utes at Southern California Trojans (-3)

Southern Cal (3-3 SU and ATS) has seen a once-promising season turn into a dumpster fire, with the lowlight being last week’s firing of coach Steve Sarkisian.

Yet interim coach Clay Helton and the Trojans gave Notre Dame a big fight on Saturday and will actually be favored against unbeaten Utah.

USC, a 6-point road ‘dog, ripped off 21 straight points to erase a 24-10 deficit and take a 31-24 lead five minutes into the third quarter, but the Irish rallied for the last 17 points of the game to win, 41-31.

Utah (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) is not only atop the Pac-12 but also in the early conversation for this year’s four-team playoff. The Utes dispatched Arizona State 34-18 as a 4.5-point fave Saturday.

“What a year for the Utes, as they continue to find ways to win,” Avello said. “The Utah run defense has been very difficult to penetrate – just ask Arizona State – so USC quarterback Cody Kessler needs to be super sharp in this matchup.”

California Golden Bears at UCLA Bruins (-5.5)

Beyond Utah, the Pac-12 is jumbled up at midseason, with Cal and UCLA both still in the mix in the North and South divisions respectively, heading into a Thursday night showdown.

The Golden Bears (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) took their lone loss the last time out, a respectable 30-24 setback catching 7.5 points at Utah on Oct. 10. Cal is coming off its bye.

The Bruins (4-2 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) got out of the gate with four straight victories, but they’ve stubbed their toes hard in the last two games. On Oct. 3, UCLA tumbled to Arizona State 38-23 giving 12.5 points at home, and a bye week did little to help the Bruins, as they got steamrolled 56-35 getting 6.5 points at Stanford on Thursday.

“Cal is having a very successful season, with the only setback a close loss to Utah,” Avello said. “UCLA has a two-game losing skid, as it did last year at this time of the season, and guess who the Bruins met? Yes, Cal, and the Bruins won a close one (36-34 as 6.5-point road faves). This game should attract good action, as it's the marquee college matchup on Thursday night.”

**Udog** · 10-19-2015, 08:57 AM

MLB
Dunkel

LCS

Kansas City @ Toronto

Game 959-960
October 19, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
(Cueto) 16.577
Toronto
(Stroman) 15.426
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-165
8
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+145); Over

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 19

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KANSAS CITY (100 - 69) at TORONTO (96 - 73) - 7:05 PM
JOHNNY CUETO (R) vs. MARCUS STROMAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CUETO is 6-12 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
CUETO is 3-10 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season. (Team's Record)
TORONTO is 50-32 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TORONTO is 51-35 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TORONTO is 27-12 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
KANSAS CITY is 100-69 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 45-38 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 19-6 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 30-13 (+16.1 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 68-52 (+6.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 67-41 (+20.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 59-42 (+11.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
KANSAS CITY is 44-25 (+18.4 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 91-67 (+19.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 46-30 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CUETO is 21-8 (+13.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CUETO is 12-3 (+9.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 5-4 (+1.6 Units) against TORONTO this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.5 Units)

JOHNNY CUETO vs. TORONTO since 1997
CUETO is 2-0 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.250.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)

MARCUS STROMAN vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
STROMAN is 1-0 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.833.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.2 units)

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MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, October 19

Kansas City at Toronto, 8:05 PM EDT
Kansas City: 35-28 SU as an underdog of +100 or higher
Toronto: 59-64 SU after having lost 2 of their last 3

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 19

American League
Blue Jays vs Royals
Cueto is 2-0, 3.32 in his last three starts (over 8-2 in last ten).

Stroman is 4-0, 2.48 in six starts this year, with last three going over total.

Royals won ten of their last twelve games (over 4-2 last six).

Blue Jays lost three of last four games with KC; home side won nine of last eleven series games. Toronto is down 2-0 for second series in row (over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games).

MLB

Monday, October 19

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Trend Report
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8:07 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Kansas City's last 23 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City

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**Udog** · 10-19-2015, 08:59 AM

MLB

Monday, October 19

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ALCS Game 3 betting preview: Royals at Blue Jays
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The Kansas City Royals have not lost an American League Championship Series game since dropping Game 4 to the Toronto Blue Jays in 1985.

Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays (-167, 8)

Royals lead series 2-0.

The Kansas City Royals have not lost an American League Championship Series game since dropping Game 4 to the Toronto Blue Jays in 1985. The Royals took the final three games in 1985 to take that series and will go for their 10th straight ALCS win against the Blue Jays when the series shifts to Toronto for Game 3 on Monday.

Kansas City, which swept the Baltimore Orioles in the 2014 ALCS, managed one hit through the first six innings on Sunday but took a 2-0 lead over the Blue Jays with a come-from-behind victory in Game 2, sparked by five runs in the seventh. “No,” Royals manager Ned Yost responded when asked if he was surprised about the comeback in the postgame press conference. “You knew somewhere over the course of the game that we were going to mount some type of challenge there.” Toronto trailed its Division Series 0-2 against the Texas Rangers before coming back to win in five games and remains confident it can get back into the series. “Our back is against the wall, but it will be good to go back home where we normally play well,” Blue Jays manager John Gibbons told reporters. “We'll have (Marcus Stroman) going on Monday. We feel good. It's a lot tougher from here. But we have a pretty good team, too.”

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Jays -167 and the total at 8.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Johnny Cueto (1-0, 3.86 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (0-0, 3.46)

Cueto’s had an up-and-down tenure with Kansas City since being acquired prior to the trade deadline but turned in his best performance when it counted the most with eight dominant innings in the clinching Game 5 of the ALDS. The Dominican Republic native set down 19 in a row to end that outing and was charged with two runs on as many hits while striking out eight without a walk. Cueto made his Royals debut at Toronto on July 31 and allowed three runs on seven hits and a pair of walks in six innings.

Stroman started the decisive game of the ALDS as well and left without factoring in the decision after allowing two runs and six hits in six innings to the Rangers. The 24-year-old has made only six starts since returning from knee surgery but has yet to suffer a loss in 2015. Stroman faced Kansas City only once previously in his career and cruised through six innings while surrendering one run to earn a win.

TRENDS:

* Royals are 1-5 in the last six meetings in Toronto.
* Under is 13-3 in umpire John Hirschbeck's last 16 games behind home plate vs. Kansas City.
* Royals are 4-0 in Cueto's last four starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Blue Jays are 6-1 in Stroman's last seven starts.

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Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/19

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/19

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