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**Udog** · 10-17-2015, 07:33 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder, with Week 6 here.......

-- Arizona is 21-5-1 vs spread in its last 27 non-divisional games.

-- Packers are 9-1-1 in last eleven games as a home favorite.

-- Cincinnati is 29-11-4 in its last 43 non-divisional games.

-- Indianapolis is 10-4 in its last fourteen games as a home dog.

-- Baltimore is 5-14 as a non-divisional road favorite.

-- Philadelphia is 6-15 as a non-divisional home favorite

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind.....

13) Fact of the matter is this: many athletes struggle with their life after they stop playing ball for a living, it can often lead to depression. During their playing days, athletes are often coddled, catered to and idolized. Once they retire, a lot of that stops and especially if the athlete didn't put a lot of money away, it can be depressing, and that is too bad, but it happens.

12) Someone who probably won't run out of money is Zack Greinke, who is opting out of the last three years ($71M) of his contract to test free agency, where he will undoubtedly make even more money. It is good to be his agent.

11) BYU's "true freshman" QB is actually 22 years old, not really a true freshman.

10) It is a pleasure to listen to Mike Breen call an NBA game, even an exhibition game; he is smart, upbeat and can be very funny. Good to hear his voice again.

9) Don Mattingly has a 446-363 regular season record as manager of the Dodgers, but he is only 8-11 in playoffs, not exactly what you expect from a team with a $300M payroll. His contract runs thru 2016, but will the Dodgers keep him?

8) Jacob deGrom threw 105 pitches against Mattingly's Dodgers Thursday night; 57 of them came with a runner in scoring position, as he scuffled thru his six innings but did his job, as the Mets advance to the NLCS, which starts tonight.

7) Graduates from West Point next spring will have metal in their class rings that came from the World Trade Center, as a reminder of what their education is about.

6) Last 2+ weeks, NFL road teams are 21-9-1 against the spread.

5) Underrated injury; Patriots lost LT Nate Solder for the season; the left tackle protects the QB's blind side (if he throws righty) so that is a big deal.

4) If you care about such things, over last four weeks, Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles is #5 amongst NFL QBs in fantasy points. Wouldn't have guessed that.

3) Odd fact of the day: Johnny Cueto has started 231 games in his fine career, but Game 5 against Houston was the first time he started with veteran ump Gerry Davis behind the plate, whch you wouldn't think would be possible, but it is true.

2) Sasha Vujacic is back in NBA with the Knicks; wonder if there is any significance to his wearing number 18, which Phil Jackson wore with the Knicks?

1) Why is the NBA package on DirecTV $60 more expensive than the NHL's?

**Udog** · 10-17-2015, 07:40 AM

MLB
Dunkel

LCS

Toronto @ Kansas City

Game 955-956
October 17, 2015 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
(Price) 17.504
Kansas City
(Ventura) 16.138
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-150
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-150); Over

Chicago Cubs @ NY Mets

Game 953-954
October 17, 2015 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago Cubs
(Lester) 16.512
NY Mets
(Harvey) 15.033
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Mets
-120
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(+100); Under

MLB
Short Sheet

Saturday, October 17

Chicago Cubs at NY Mets, 8:05 PM EDT
Chicago: 18-7 SU in road games after a win by 2 runs or less
New York: 6-17 SU revenging 4 or more straight losses vs opponent

Toronto at Kansas City, 4:05 PM EDT
Toronto: tba
Kansas City: tba

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, October 17

American League
Blue Jays vs Royals
Price is 2-6, 5.04 in 12 playoff games, but both wins came in relief; he is 0-6 as a playoff starter, 5-1, 3.32 in his last six starts (over 4-1 last five) overall.

Ventura is 1-1, 4.18 in six playoff starts, he is 1-1, 3.00 in his last four overall (under 4-1 last five overall).

Blue Jays won three of last five games with KC; home side won eight of last ten series games. Toronto won three of last four games (over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games).

Royals won nine of their last eleven games (over 3-2 last five).

National League
Cubs vs Mets
Lester is 6-5, 2.66 in 13 playoff starts, 1-3, 3.18 in his last four starts overall (under 4-1 in his last five).

Harvey is 2-1, 2.38 in his last four starts (over 8-2 in last ten).

Chicago won its last nine games against the Mets (under 6-2-1); Cubs won nine of last ten games overall (over 3-0 last three).

New York won four of last six games (under 7-2 in last nine); they played on Thursday, the Cubs clinched Wednesday, if that matters.

MLB

Saturday, October 17

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Trend Report
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4:07 PM
TORONTO vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 9 games on the road
Kansas City is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 9 games

8:07 PM
CHI CUBS vs. NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 9 games when playing NY Mets
Chi Cubs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets are 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

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**Udog** · 10-17-2015, 08:34 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, October 17

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CHICAGO CUBS (101 - 66) at NY METS (93 - 74) - 7:05 PM
JON LESTER (L) vs. MATT HARVEY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY METS are 93-74 (+8.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 92-70 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
NY METS are 56-36 (+13.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 101-66 (+20.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 39-25 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 50-34 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 23-10 (+14.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 101-66 (+20.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 61-36 (+20.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 80-52 (+14.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 61-38 (+14.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 26-11 (+13.8 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 47-31 (+15.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 22-12 (+10.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
NY METS are 14-26 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 182-227 (-59.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 7-0 (+7.1 Units) against NY METS this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.7 Units)

JON LESTER vs. NY METS since 1997
LESTER is 2-0 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 2.50 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 3-0 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.4 units)

MATT HARVEY vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
HARVEY is 1-0 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 1.26 and a WHIP of 0.698.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.2 units)

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TORONTO (96 - 72) at KANSAS CITY (99 - 69) - 4:05 PM
DAVID PRICE (L) vs. YORDANO VENTURA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PRICE is 0-6 (-8.9 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 99-69 (+20.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 54-31 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 18-6 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 31-17 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 96-65 (+21.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 15-6 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 58-42 (+10.6 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
KANSAS CITY is 43-25 (+17.0 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 90-67 (+18.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 45-30 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 96-72 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TORONTO is 51-34 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TORONTO is 27-11 (+12.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PRICE is 13-3 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
PRICE is 20-5 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
PRICE is 41-20 (+20.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 100-146 (-50.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Saturday since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-4 (+0.3 Units) against TORONTO this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

DAVID PRICE vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
PRICE is 2-0 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 1.98 and a WHIP of 0.908.
His team's record is 3-2 (-2.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)

YORDANO VENTURA vs. TORONTO since 1997
VENTURA is 1-0 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

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**Udog** · 10-17-2015, 08:41 AM

MLB

Saturday, October 17

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Saturday LCS doubleheader betting preview: Blue Jays at Royals, Cubs at Mets
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David Price is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) against Kansas City.

Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals (+134, 7.5)

Royals lead series 1-0

David Price has lost all six of his career postseason starts but looks to end that pattern when the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Kansas City Royals on Saturday for Game 2 of the American League Championship Series. Toronto hopes the left-hander can flash his regular-season form as it attempts to even the best-of-seven series after falling 5-0 in Friday's opener.

Price is well aware of his postseason struggles and claims he isn't putting extra pressure on himself. "No, I know it's going to come," Price said in a press conference. "I have 100 percent confidence in myself. I know my teammates do, as well, and our coaching staff. This is part of it. You've got to be able to live in the moment." Four Kansas City pitchers combined for a three-hitter in Game 1, silencing Toronto's powerful bats. Salvador Perez hit a solo homer and Alcides Escobar went 2-for-3 with two runs scored and one RBI for the Royals, who won their eighth consecutive ALCS contest - two off the major-league record set by the Baltimore Orioles from 1969-73.

TV: 4:07 p.m. ET, FS1, RSN (Toronto)

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 50s under clear skies.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Blue Jays LH David Price (1-1, 7.20 ERA) vs. Royals RH Yordano Ventura (0-1, 7.71)

Price picked up a victory in relief in Game 4 of the AL Division Series against Texas despite surrendering three runs and six hits over three innings. He served up two homers in his one start versus the Rangers after allowing just four in 11 regular-season turns with the Blue Jays. Price is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) against Kansas City, including a 1-0 mark and 2.93 ERA in two 2015 starts.

The 24-year-old Ventura is making his third start this postseason and the seventh of his career as manager Ned Yost feels he has found his comfort zone. "I don't think he's gotten any better in terms of his talent, but as a professional and as a competitor, he's gotten a lot better," Yost said. "He's matured a lot, which is a good thing. Young guys go through some tough times up here. And the more you endure it, the more you learn from it, the better off you're going to be." Ventura is 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA in two career starts against Toronto, with the win coming this season despite allowing five runs and six hits in seven innings.

TRENDS:

* Royals are 6-0 in their last six games with umpire Diaz behind home plate.
* Blue Jays are 2-6 in the last eight meetings in Kansas City.
* Blue Jays are 5-0 in Price's last five road starts.
* Under is 5-1-2 in Venturas last eight home starts.

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (-117, 6.5)

The Chicago Cubs are four wins away from their first trip to the World Series since 1945 – all that stands in the way are the New York Mets. The Cubs visit the Mets for Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Saturday.

Chicago survived the wild-card game against 98-win Pittsburgh and took down the 100-win St. Louis Cardinals in the Division Series to move one step closer to its first pennant in 70 years and first World Series title since 1908. The Cubs rode an impressive group of young sluggers led by Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler through the NLDS and will send two-time World Series winner Jon Lester to the mound in Game 1. The Mets hit their fair share of home runs in their division series against the Los Angeles Dodgers as well, capped by Daniel Murphy’s decisive solo shot in Game 5, and are riding their own wave of momentum in the NLCS. New York, which went 0-7 against Chicago in the regular season, will send ace Matt Harvey to the mound with no restrictions in Game 1.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high-40s with wind blowing in from left field at around 12 miles per hour.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs LH Jon Lester (0-1, 3.68 ERA) vs. Mets RH Matt Harvey (1-0, 3.60)

Chicago decided to go with Lester over Jake Arrieta in Game 1 because he was next up in the rotation, and both are set to go twice in the series if necessary. Lester allowed three runs and five hits while striking out nine over 7 1/3 innings in Game 1 of the NLDS but took the loss to drop to 6-5 with a 2.66 ERA in his postseason career. The 31-year-old tossed seven scoreless innings at New York on July 1 and has never lost to the Mets in three career starts.

Harvey has worked a total of 22 1/3 innings since Sept. 8 as the team tried to limit his workload in anticipation of the playoffs. The Connecticut native went five innings and allowed three runs – two earned on seven hits and a pair of walks in a win in the NLDS and has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in each of his last four outings. Harvey struck out nine over seven scoreless innings at Chicago on May 13.

TRENDS:

* Cubs are 5-0 in the last five meetings in New York.
* Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Lester's last nine road starts.
* Mets are 4-0 in their last four vs. National League Central.

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Announcement

Saturday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/17

Saturday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/17

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