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**Udog** · 10-13-2015, 07:33 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six of this weekend's more interesting college football games.........

-- UCLA @ Stanford (-6.5)-- Interesting Pac-12 game Thursday night.

-- Alabama (-5) @ Texas A&M-- Crimson Tide just keeps on winning.

-- Nebraska @ Minnesota (-1.5)-- Cornhuskers play lot of close games.

-- USC @ Notre Dame (-6)-- Hope coach Sarkisian gets the help he needs.

-- Michigan State @ Michigan (-7)-- Three straight shutouts for Wolverines.

-- Ole Miss (-10.5) @ Memphis-- Regional rivalry; Tigers haven't lost yet.

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

If you're a USC football fan, Monday was a bad day, on both coasts........

13) Steve Spurrier is one of the best college football coaches ever; he coached in the pros with the Tampa Bay Bandits of the USFL and the Redskins in the NFL, he won a national title at Florida and he won at South Carolina more than anyone else has, but Father Time never loses- the Gamecocks are 2-4, they have struggled to develop a QB and because Spurrier is 70, recruiting has suffered. Its no fun getting old.

12) We hope Steve Sarkisian gets the help he needs and gets his life in order; thats a lot more important than his career right now. USC fired Sarkisian Monday; they go to Notre Dame Saturday-- interim coach Clay Helton will be the 4th different USC head coach to oppose the Irish in their last four meetings.

11) Royals 9, Astros 6-- KC scored six runs in top of 8th inning to force Game 5 and send Astro fans home unhappy. Houston's bullpen is the team's weak link.

10) Blue Jays 8, Rangers 4-- Toronto has been favored in all four games of series, but Texas won last 11 Cole Hamels starts and he is starting Game 5 Wednesday.

9) Cubs 8, Cardinals 6-- Last time Jake Arrieta lost was to the Phillies in July, when Hamels threw his no-hitter, obviously before he got traded. Four of the eight starting position players for the Cubs are rookies.

8) Mets 13, Dodgers 7-- For a team with a $300M payroll, the Dodgers have awful pitching depth. Kershaw goes on three days' rest in Game 4 tonight.

7) Steelers 24, Chargers 20-- Michael Vick did what he had to do in 4th quarter, after doing very little in first three quarters. Steelers' first TD was scored by defense. Bad loss for San Diego, which goes to Lambeau Field Sunday.

6) I'm not a fan of dugout interviews during playoff games; whats the point? No one ever says anything interesting, anyway.

5) Only 22 states give state employees off for Columbus Day.

4) ESPNU televised a Kentucky basketball practice over weekend, which means they'll probably be showing a Duke practice soon, too.

3) Fox Sports1 is so desperate for ratings, they did a feature Sunday night on fantasy football Sunday featuring porn star Lisa Ann; I have no idea how much she does or does not know (her brother is apparently heavily involved in fantasy sports) but if she wasn't a porn star, I doubt they'd be doing a feature about her on national television.

2) Brandon Weeden has now lost his last 11 NFL starts; time for Dallas to give Matt Cassel a chance. Also time for the Cowboys to be flexed off of national TV until Tony Romo is back playing.

1) Baltimore Ravens' third down defense in their only win: 2 for 13
Baltimore Ravens' third down defense in their four losses: 37 of 67.

**Udog** · 10-13-2015, 07:33 AM

Luck's status has Deflate-gate rematch line in limbo

Books are holding off on posting a line for this week's Colts-Patriots game until Andrew Luck's status is determined.

Based on the 2014 NFL season, it appeared that Week 6 of the 2015 season would feature a showdown between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts. It would be a rematch of the AFC Championship Game – aka Deflategate.

New England (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) still looks like the team that rolled to a 45-7 home win laying 7 points in that game. The Pats then went on to beat Seattle in the Super Bowl. On Sunday at undermanned Dallas, Tom Brady & Co. rumbled to a 30-6 victory as an 8-point favorite.

Indianapolis (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS) has managed to post three consecutive wins, but has struggled against inferior competition without Andrew Luck (shoulder) under center the past two weeks. Playing the Thursday night game in Week 5, the Colts rode backup QB Matt Hasselbeck and running back Frank Gore to a 27-20 win at Houston as a 5-point underdog.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, said he’ll hold off on posting a line until Luck’s status is determined.

“It appears the Colts organization is going to be understandably cautious with Luck,” Lester said. “That said, we are going to hold off hanging a line until his status is a bit more definitive. If Luck is out, which we anticipate, the Patriots will be at least touchdown chalk, and at that number, the public will be backing them again.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, said without Luck, Indy will be another footnote for New England.

“The Pats have been mowing down opponents, and without Andrew Luck, the Colts may just become additional blades of grass,” Avello said.

Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers (OFF)

Arizona could easily be among the ranks of the unbeaten this year, with its lone loss a 24-22 upset as a 7-point home chalk to St. Louis in Week 4. But the Cardinals (4-1 SU and ATS) bounced back in a big way Sunday at Detroit, hammering the Lions 42-17 as a 4-point road fave.

Pittsburgh is still trying to bide its time while QB Ben Roethlisberger recovers from a left knee injury. The Steelers (2-2 SU, 3-0-1 ATS) blew a great chance to beat Baltimore in Week 4, tumbling 23-20 in overtime as a 3-point pup with Michael Vick at quarterback. The Steelers will also have a shorter week, playing in the Monday nighter tonight at San Diego.

“I really do believe that the Cardinals are a quality team and have all the pieces it takes to win it all,” Avello said. “But the five teams they've faced have a total of six wins among them. This will be a stiffer test.”

With Pittsburgh in action tonight, the line isn’t yet posted.

“If the Steelers don’t suffer any major injuries on Monday night, then we’ll open the Cardinals as short road chalk,” Lester said. “This will be the second good test for the Cardinals, and the first was their only defeat (a 24-22 home loss to St. Louis). Michael Vick has enough talent around him to be serviceable and keep games against quality opponents competitive.”

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Carolina (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) puts its perfect record on the line with a coast-to-coast road trip for which the Panthers are well-rested. Carolina had its bye in Week 5, after bouncing Tampa Bay 37-23 giving 3 points on the road in Week 4.

Seattle (2-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) is almost assuredly fuming after blowing a 24-7 lead Sunday by giving up 17 points to Cincinnati in the fourth quarter, then losing 27-24 in overtime to push as a 3-point road ‘dog. Allowing such a rally certainly wasn’t becoming of the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks, but last year, they were 3-3 SU and ATS through six weeks, then plowed through the rest of the season to return to the Super Bowl.

“It will be interesting to see how the betting community reacts to this game,” Lester said. “The Panthers are coming off a bye, but this is the first good team they’ve seen all year. It’s too early to label this a must-win situation for the Seahawks, but they really do need a win here at home.

“This spread might fluctuate a half point either way, but I expect we will have good two-way action for this one.”

Avello isn’t sold on the Panthers, but also has reservations about Seattle.

“The Panthers are playing with confidence, but they've also played a weak schedule, the weakest of any team thus far,” Avello said. “The last time these two met was in last season's divisional playoff round, where the Seahawks were an 11-point home favorite (in a 31-17 win). Don't expect to see anything close to that number, as the ‘Hawks aren't on par with last year's squad, and the Panthers are a much closer comparison to where they were last season.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

With Baltimore unraveling and Pittsburgh trying to hang in without Ben Roethlisberger, Cincinnati has assumed control in the AFC North. The Bengals (5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS), 3-point home faves against Seattle on Sunday, rallied from a 24-7 fourth-quarter deficit to win 27-24 in overtime.
Buffalo (3-2 SU and ATS) has looked perhaps a little better than expected under new coach Rex Ryan. On Sunday, the Bills squeaked out a 14-13 win catching 1 point at Tennessee.
“The Bengals are 5-0, and the perception is they are ready to take on all challengers,” Avello said. “I believe they are going to get that challenge here in a game I opened Buffalo -1.5. The Bengals will have backing at the betting windows, as they are 5-0 against the number, if you were able to lay the -2.5 vs Seattle.”

Lester opened the game at pick ‘em and quickly moved Cincy to -1.

“We’ll see if there is any kind of letdown for Cincinnati with a tough trip to Orchard Park on deck,” Lester said. “That said, the early money has already come in on the Bengals. If the banged-up Bills don’t get some of their offensive talent back, I expect we will keep shading toward the visitor as the public gamblers get involved.”

**Udog** · 10-13-2015, 07:34 AM

Best betting value takes timing for these NFL Week 6 odds

Experts suggests waiting on the Falcons-Saints game until the line settles down

Game to bet on now

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5)

Call this one the Revenge Bowl. In New England, everyone is still uber-ticked at the Colts for telling the teacher about alleged underinflated footballs and the Patriots are now primed to get even during recess. New England is 4-0, kicking butt and taking names, while Indianapolis has quarterback issues. Add in the fact that the Patriots treat the Colts like the hired help, and it’s surprising that the 7.5 number isn’t higher.

Scorched-earth was the name of the game in 2007 in the wake of SpyGate, and so it will be eight years later. Expect a few Gronk end zone spikes, Brady fired up on the sidelines and a certain steely-eyed hoodie on the sidelines sneaking an occasional look at the Colt owners box with each score.

Game to wait on

Atlanta at New Orleans (+3)

The Falcons are one of four undefeated teams, but are there cracks in the foundation? A mediocre Washington team had Atlanta by the scruff of the neck several times on Sunday before losing on a overtime pick-6, and now there are a few questions about the Falcons’ staying power – at least when wide out Julio Jones is not at 100 percent.

Heavy money is coming in on Atlanta in this one and could move the line, even though books will certainly be reluctant to give the Saints another half-point at home. Might be a good idea to hold off on this one until the line settles and Atlanta gets a better idea of how Jones’s ailing right hamstring feels closer to gametime.

Total to watch

Carolina at Seattle (O/U: 42)

The offense appears to be straightened out in Carolina, where the Panthers have scored progressively more points (20, 24, 27, 37) in each game. But over players need to be careful here, because the Panthers have not moved the ball on anyone of note (Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Houston and Jacksonville are a combined 5-15).

Few teams are able to run the ball against Seattle’s No. 5-ranked defense, and if the Seahawks make the Panther offense one-dimensional, eclipsing 37 points on the road will be a mere pipedream.

**Udog** · 10-13-2015, 07:39 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 13

National League
Cubs vs Cardinals
Lackey is 3-1, 1.60 in his last six starts (under 3-1 last four).

Hammel is 3-2, 5.61 in his last seven starts (over 5-1 last six).

Cubs won ten of last 12 games (under 9-4-1 last 14) they're 7-5 in last 12 games with St Louis (over 9-2-1). Chicago is in playoffs for first time since '08. Joe Maddon was in playoffs with Rays four times in six years from '08-'13.

St Louis is in playoffs for fifth year in row, 12th time in 16 years; they lost seven of last 12 games- four of their last six games stayed under.

Mets vs Dodgers
Kershaw is 2-1, 2.22 in his last four starts (over 3-1); his career playoff record is 1-6, 4.99 (0-5, 6.75 the last three years).

Matz is 4-0, 2.27 in six MLB starts (under 3-1 last four); he blanked Dodgers for six innings in LA July 5 (101 PT).

Dodgers are in playoffs for third year in row; they've won five of last seven games, but need win tonight to keep their season going.

Mets are 4-1 in last five games with LA (over 9-4 last 13). NY lost six of last nine games overall. Mets are in playoffs for first time since 2006, second time since '00.

MLB

Tuesday, October 13

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Trend Report
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4:37 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CHI CUBS
St. Louis is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 9 of St. Louis's last 12 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chi Cubs's last 12 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chi Cubs's last 16 games

8:07 PM
LA DODGERS vs. NY METS
LA Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Mets
LA Dodgers are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
NY Mets are 5-10 SU in their last 15 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
NY Mets are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

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MLB

Tuesday, October 13

Cubs' Russell leaves with hamstring ailment

CHICAGO -- Cubs shortstop Addison Russell left Chicago's National League Division Series Game 3 against the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday with reported left hamstring tightness after tripling in the fourth inning.

Russell, 1-for-2 in the game at Wrigley Field, slid head-first into third base after sending a long drive to deep left with two outs.

Javier Baez entered as a pinch runner and was stranded at third. Baez then remained in the game at shortstop.

Russell is 2-for-8 in the series, 3-for-12 in the postseason.

**Udog** · 10-13-2015, 08:57 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Division Series

LA Dodgers @ NY Mets

Game 929-930
October 13, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 12.952
NY Mets
(Matz) 16.146
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Mets
by 3
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
NY Mets
N/A

St. Louis @ Chicago Cubs

Game 931-932
October 13, 2015 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Lackey) 17.408
Chicago Cubs
(Hammel) 13.257
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 4
10 1/2
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
N/A

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 13

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LA DODGERS (93 - 72) at NY METS (92 - 73) - 8:05 PM
CLAYTON KERSHAW (L) vs. STEVEN MATZ (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 6-4 (+4.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.9 Units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. NY METS since 1997
KERSHAW is 6-1 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 1.61 and a WHIP of 1.060.
His team's record is 8-2 (+3.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-7. (-4.1 units)

STEVEN MATZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
MATZ is 1-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.667.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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ST LOUIS (102 - 63) at CHICAGO CUBS (100 - 66) - 4:35 PM
JOHN LACKEY (R) vs. JASON HAMMEL (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 12-10 (+0.7 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
13 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.8 Units)

JOHN LACKEY vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
LACKEY is 4-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 1.65 and a WHIP of 1.102.
His team's record is 6-1 (+5.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-6. (-5.3 units)

JASON HAMMEL vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
HAMMEL is 2-3 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 5.97 and a WHIP of 1.485.
His team's record is 2-5 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-4. (-1.6 units)

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**Udog** · 10-13-2015, 09:08 AM

MLB

Tuesday, October 13

Cardinals switch to Lackey for Game 4

Facing elimination, the St. Louis Cardinals will turn to veteran right-hander John Lackey in Game 4 on Tuesday, hoping to stay alive in the National League Division Series against the Chicago Cubs.

Lance Lynn was originally scheduled to pitch Game 4 for St. Louis, but with the Cardinals needing to win Tuesday in Wrigley Field to stave off elimination, manager Mike Matheny switched to Lackey. The Cubs lead the best-of-five series two games to one.

Lackey, the winning pitcher in Game 1, will pitch on three days' rest, and the Cardinals hope he can be as effective as he was Friday, when he pitched 7 1/3 innings of two-hit ball in the Cardinals' 4-0 victory.

Cubs' Hammel rested and ready for Game 4 start

CHICAGO -- Jason Hammel, who will pitch in a potential series clincher for the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday, knows what it is like to work big games.

The veteran right-hander will work Game 4 of the National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals, with the Cubs needing one more win to capture the best-of-five set.

"I've done this a few times now in the postseason, and I understand that it's just another ballgame," he said Monday before the Cubs beat the Cardinals 8-6 in Game 3. "I've been preparing for this game since my last outing in Cincinnati (a 5-3 win on Oct. 1), so I've had a little time to think about it, and honestly, I'll be ready to go."

Kershaw set to pitch Game 4 on short rest

NEW YORK -- The Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets haven't agreed on much during a heated National League Division Series.

Except this: The best pitcher to take the ball for the Dodgers in Game 4 on Tuesday night is three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw.

During his press conference after New York's 13-7 win Monday night, Mets manager Terry Collins was asked if he preferred to see Kershaw or left-hander Alex Wood on the mound Tuesday.

"Would I have any preference?" Collins said with a laugh. "Yeah, I got a preference. Believe me, this is no slap at Alex Wood. He's a fine pitcher, but I don't want that other monster on the mound."

Well, Collins and the Mets are going to see that monster Tuesday, when the Dodgers try to extend their season by sending Kershaw to the mound on three days' rest. The Mets hold a 2-1 lead in the best-of-five series.

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Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/13

Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/13

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