Announcement

**Udog** · 10-11-2015, 07:41 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week 5 here.........

-- Buccaneers are 4-14-1 as non-divisional home favorites.

-- Arizona covered 12 of its last 17 road games.

-- Washington is 9-18 in last 27 games as an underdog.

-- Denver covered 13 of last 15 divisional games.

-- Eagles are 6-1 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites.

-- San Diego is 18-11-1 as a non-divisional home favorite.

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday.....

13) Dodgers 5, Mets 2-- I defer to former big leaguers on the Utley slide; they seem to have a mixed opinion. It was late and it was hard, but it was technically legal. Game 3 in Queens is going to be........very interesting.

12) Texas 24, Oklahoma 17-- Players' elation after winning this game shows how it will be difficult to bounce Charlie Strong anytime soon. Former Texas coach Mack Brown summed up the fans' reaction this way: "They'll be thrilled, until Tuesday."

11) Wisconsin 23, Nebraska 21-- Poor Mike Riley, who has four bitter defeats in his first six games as Nebraska's coach; he lost this one with :04 left.

10) Tennessee 38, Georgia 31-- Second year in row Dawgs lose their star RB to a knee injury; Nick Chubb got hurt in first quarter, didn't return and Georgia blew a 24-3 lead on road to a QB who can't pass.

9) Wake Forest 3, Boston College 0-- BC has already lost games 3-0/14-0/9-7 this year; they had ball on 1-yard line with 0:11 left and ran the ball instead of passing two times. No bueno. Imagine if these teams played in the Big X?

8) TCU 52, Kansas State 45-- K-State is playing a QB who didn't start a game in high school, yet they led 35-17 at half. Bill Snyder is a coaching genius, but he just does not have enough team speed to be in top half of this league.

7) Florida State 29, Miami 24-- Hurricane boosters despise Al Golden, who won at Temple so he must be a pretty good coach. Name being tossed around is Greg Schiano, a former Miami assistant who never really shone as a head coach with Rutgers/Bucs.

6) Michigan 38, Northwestern 0-- Jim Harbaugh is a really good coach; Wolverines shut out last three opponents; two of the three will play in bowls. Michigan State is up next, one of next week's best games.

5) Michigan State 31, Rutgers 24--Spartans struggled with Purdue/Rutgers last two weeks, but they still have not lost and they play Michigan next week.

4) Alabama 27, Arkansas 14-- If you bet on Bret Bielema against Nick Saban, what the bleep were you thinking? Razorbacks tried a fake punt in their own territory down 10-7, with predictable horrendous results.

3) Washington State 45, Oregon 38 OT-- Mike Leach is betting gold on the road. In this game, his soph QB threw 74 passes (50-74/505). Oregon is sliding quickly.

2) Cubs 6, Cardinals 3-- Joe Maddon batted the pitcher 8th and he won; I swear he does stuff sometimes just to be different, but he has an excellent track record.

1) At 12:30am local time, I was sitting in the Westgate sportsbook with about ten other humans, two of whom have gorgeous girlfriends-- I was watching the end of the San Diego State-Hawai'i game, they had bet the over in the Hornets-Clippers game from China. What a day, lot of fun. This may be the best place on earth.

**Udog** · 10-11-2015, 07:46 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Division Series

Kansas City @ Houston

Game 917-918
October 11, 2015 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
(Volquez) 15.016
Houston
(Keuchel) 16.670
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-180
7
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-180); Under

Toronto @ Texas

Game 919-920
October 11, 2015 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
(Estrada) 17.654
Texas
(Perez) 14.709
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 3
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-130
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-130); Over

MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 11

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KANSAS CITY (96 - 68) at HOUSTON (88 - 77) - 4:05 PM
EDINSON VOLQUEZ (R) vs. DALLAS KEUCHEL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 53-28 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
HOUSTON is 12-1 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Sunday this season.
HOUSTON is 88-71 (+4.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
HOUSTON is 58-45 (+7.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 65-65 (+11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
KEUCHEL is 41-22 (+21.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KEUCHEL is 16-2 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record)
KEUCHEL is 24-9 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
KEUCHEL is 25-12 (+16.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KEUCHEL is 17-6 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 96-68 (+18.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 24-14 (+10.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
KANSAS CITY is 44-37 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 28-21 (+10.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 15-5 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 28-12 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 30-16 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 93-64 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 56-41 (+9.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
KANSAS CITY is 87-66 (+15.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 42-29 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
VOLQUEZ is 22-11 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
VOLQUEZ is 10-3 (+8.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VOLQUEZ is 21-10 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-3 (+2.1 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.4 Units)

EDINSON VOLQUEZ vs. HOUSTON since 1997
VOLQUEZ is 6-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.130.
His team's record is 7-2 (+5.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-6. (-3.6 units)

DALLAS KEUCHEL vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
KEUCHEL is 2-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.62 and a WHIP of 1.353.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.0 units)

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TORONTO (93 - 71) at TEXAS (90 - 74) - 8:05 PM
MARCO ESTRADA (R) vs. MARTIN PEREZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 90-74 (+33.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 85-70 (+29.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 65-50 (+27.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 54-43 (+19.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 49-40 (+20.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TEXAS is 47-27 (+34.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TEXAS is 24-15 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 48-33 (+9.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TORONTO is 24-10 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
ESTRADA is 21-12 (+12.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 41-60 (-20.8 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 5-14 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 4-4 (+2.3 Units) against TORONTO this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

MARCO ESTRADA vs. TEXAS since 1997
ESTRADA is 1-1 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.917.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.0 units)

MARTIN PEREZ vs. TORONTO since 1997
No recent starts.

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, October 11

American League
Blue Jays vs Rangers
Perez is 0-1, 4.24 in his last three starts (under 7-2 last nine).

Estrada is 1-0, 2.20 in his last four starts (under 3-1-1 last five on road).

Blue Jays are in playoffs for first time since winning '93 World Series; they lost six of last seven games-- over is 6-0-2 in their last eight games.

Rangers won last three games with Toronto (over 3-1-1 last five); Texas is in the playoffs for first time since losing first AL Wild Card game in 2012- they've won six of last eight games overall (over 6-4-1 in last eleven).

Royals vs Astros
Volquez is 0-2, 4.30 in his last four starts (over 3-1).

Keuchel is 4-0, 1.35 in his last four starts (over 6-3 last nine).

Kansas City lost Game 7 of World Series LY, its first playoff appearance since 1985; Royals won six of last seven games overall (under 7-3 in last ten).

Houston won eight of its last 11 game; this is Astros' first postseason since 2005. Astros are 8-3 in last 11 games with Royals (under is 5-2 in last seven in series).

MLB

Sunday, October 11

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Trend Report
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4:10 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. HOUSTON
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Kansas City

8:10 PM
TORONTO vs. TEXAS
Toronto is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Toronto is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing Texas
Texas is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing Toronto
Texas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

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**Udog** · 10-11-2015, 07:46 AM

MLB

Sunday, October 11

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Sunday's ALDS doubleheader betting preview
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Marco Estrada’s 2.78 ERA after the All-Star break ranked second and his 0.91 WHIP paced all AL starters.

Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-175, 7)

The Kansas City Royals have been cool under pressure since a strong September in 2014 pushed them all the way to the seventh game of the World Series, and staring down an 0-2 hole in the American League Division Series pulled out the best in the team. The Royals will try to take their first lead in 2015 American League Division Series when they visit the Houston Astros for Game 3 on Sunday.

Kansas City dropped Game 1 on Thursday and was down 4-2 in Game 2 on Friday before rallying to earn a 5-4 win behind some clutch hitting from Eric Hosmer, Alcides Escobar and Ben Zobrist, and its usual dominant work from the bullpen. “I kept telling the boys just we've got a long way to go,” Royals manager Ned Yost told reporters. “Just keep plugging away. Just keep plugging away. Let it happen. Don't try to make it happen. Just let it happen. And it did.” The Astros should feel plenty confident heading home with CY Young hopeful and wild-card winner Dallas Keuchel heading to the mound in Game 3, and they are looking to wrap up the best-of-five series without going back out on the road. “I know the Houston fans are ready for us to come home,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch told reporters. “We've got homefield advantage for the rest of this series. We got to take care of business in our own back yard.”

TV: 4:10 p.m. ET, MLB Network

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Edinson Volquez (13-9, 3.55 ERA) vs. Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (20-8, 2.48)

Volquez tuned up for the postseason with two hitless innings at Minnesota last Sunday and surrendered three or fewer earned runs in each of his final four regular-season appearances. The Dominican Republic native is looking for his first postseason win and allowed a total of nine runs in 6 2/3 innings while starting in the 2010 NLDS for the Cincinnati Reds and the 2014 wild-card game for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Volquez is 6-0 with a 2.70 ERA in nine career starts against Houston but had to be bailed out by his offense at the Astros on July 1, when he was ripped for five runs and eight hits in five innings without factoring in the decision.

Keuchel started Tuesday’s AL wild-card game in New York on three days’ rest and dominated over six innings, allowing three hits and a walk while striking out seven in the 3-0 triumph. The All-Star has yielded a total of four runs in 26 2/3 innings over his last four starts and is 15-0 with a 1.46 ERA in 18 starts at home in 2015. Keuchel tossed eight scoreless innings to beat the Royals at home on June 30 but was lit up for five runs on 10 hits in 6 2/3 frames at Kansas City on July 26.

TRENDS:

* Royals are 5-0 in their last five road games.
* Astros are 22-5 in Keuchel's last 27 home starts.
* Over is 12-3-1 in Royals last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Royals are 0-4 in their last four games following an off day.

Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (+120, 9.5)

The Toronto Blue Jays owned the best offense in baseball during the regular season and boasted a starting staff with three of the four best ERAs in the American League following the All-Star break, but none of that is helping much in the American League Division Series. The Blue Jays will try to avoid being swept out of the AL Division Series when they visit the red-hot Texas Rangers for Game 3 on Sunday.

The Rangers beat David Price in Game 1 on Thursday and outlasted Toronto in 14 innings on Friday to take Game 2, putting themselves in position to advance to the ALCS one season after going 67-95. The Blue Jays are trying to turn the rare feat of winning a best-of-five series after dropping the first two games at home, and they were just 40-41 on the road during the regular season. “Sure, it won't be easy, they got a great team over there,” Toronto manager John Gibbons told reporters. “They outplayed us both games.” The Blue Jays will turn to Marco Estrada, who owned the second-best ERA in the AL after the All-Star break behind Price, for Game 3 while Texas goes with the hot hand in lefty Martin Perez.

TV: 8:10 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

PITCHING MATCHUP: Blue Jays RH Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13 ERA) vs. Rangers LH Martin Perez (3-6, 4.46)

Estrada’s 2.78 ERA after the All-Star break ranked second and his 0.91 WHIP paced all AL starters. The 32-year-old gets in trouble occasionally by giving up home runs – 13 in his final 10 starts – but is confident he can continue a stretch that saw him allow three earned runs or fewer in 12 of his final 13 outings. “I'm going to give it my all no matter what,” Estrada told reporters. “Like I said, if we were up 2-0 or down 0-2, like we are, it's the same mentality for me.”

Perez gets the nod over veterans Colby Lewis and Derek Holland due to his consistency down the stretch and a final two starts in which he allowed one earned run in 13 innings. The 24-year-old Venezuelan posted a 3.38 ERA over his final 11 starts and surrendered three or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 14 starts in 2015. Perez is facing the Blue Jays for the first time in his career while making his first career postseason appearance.

TRENDS:

* Blue Jays are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Texas.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Texas.
* Under is 7-0 in Perez's last seven Sunday starts.
* Over is 7-1-4 in Blue Jays last 12 overall.

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**Udog** · 10-11-2015, 01:01 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Sunday, October 11

Kansas City at Houston, 4:05 PM EDTKansas City: 24-14 SU when the total is 7 or less
Houston: 21-26 SU after a loss by 2 runs or less

Toronto at Texas, 8:05 PM EDTToronto: 13-23 SU after a game where their bullpen blew a save
Texas: 25-11 SU against AL East opponents

Announcement

Sunday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/11

Sunday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/11

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