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**Udog** · 10-08-2015, 08:37 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds on some college basketball teams to win national title next April......

7-1-- North Carolina, Maryland-- Former rivals are co-favorites.

8-1-- Kentucky-- Open season with the gritty Albany Great Danes.

12-1-- Duke-- Get lot of talented players, but few stay very long.

50-1-- California-- Have very talented freshman class.

100-1-- Arizona St-- Bobby Hurley's move (Buffalo-ASU) huge weather upgrade.

1,000-1-- Northwestern-- Wildcats have never been in NCAA tournament.

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud........

13) Cubs 4, Pirates 0-- Jake Arrieta is on a Hershiser-like roll; Orioles look like fools for trading him two years ago. Road teams are now 6-2 in Wild Card games.

12) We talked several times this summer about the weirdness of teams batting their pitcher 8th; there is no apparent reason for doing it, but it seemed like some teams did it just because other teams were doing it, so it must be a good thing.

Actions speak louder than words; when the Cubs got into the playoffs, Joe Maddon has his pitcher bat.........9th. Arrieta hit 9th for only the fourth time all year; that says the whole batting 8th thing is a gimmick that got into everyone else's head.

11) Wichita State alum/Knicks' sub Cleanthony Early played in an exhibition game last night even though he got his wisdom teeth taken out earlier in the day. When I was 20, I got my wisdom teeth out and they made me stay in the hospital overnight. Good to see a young guy trying hard to make the team.

10) Baylor Bears are a 44-point road favorite in a conference game this week. Kansas has lot of work to do just to become mediocre in league play. Oy.

9) Since 2009, Patriots have faced 14 quarterbacks starting because of injury to the starter; they're 11-3 in those games. Brandon Weeden is the Cowboys' backup QB.

8) Falcons' WR Roddy White has been on field for 235 snaps this year, most of any Atlanta WR, but caught only six passes (13 targets). He is not happy, despite the Falcons' 4-0 start. This is called selfishness.

7) Tampa Bay pitcher Chris Archer is 27; he has a long career ahead of him, but he was very, very good on TV Tuesday and would appear to have a bright future in TV when he gets done pitching. He also didn't want to get off the air, talking his way into another half-inning on the air when the inning he was on went by quickly.

6) LSU-South Carolina game this weekend was moved to Baton Rouge because of the flooding in the Palmetto State. We hope everyone in South Carolina is alright.

5) Ryan Tannehill got into a war of words with members of Miami's scout team, not what you want out of your starting QB, who is supposed to be a team leader, someone other players will follow. Most things that make a great QB cannot be seen by the average fan; it is not just physical skill. You have to be a really good teammate.

4) Matt Hasselbeck has been sick this week, so the Colts hustled former 3rd-stringer Josh Johnson back to Indy after they had cut him earlier in the week. Looks as if Andrew Luck will start tonight in Houston; unsure who the backup will be.

3) Vancouver-Calgary got into a fight 0:02 into their game last night; I mean, the four gloves almost hit the ice before the puck did to start the game. Some people in the NHL think the league needs fighting to remain popular; I'm thinking the two guys need to be thrown out of the game. Kings-Sharks had a fight less than 2:00 into their game too. It makes zero sense; hockey is a great game-- let the skilled players play.

2) Have you seen the GEICO commercial with the sea monster on the golf course? In the original version of that commercial, the scoreboard was the same shape as the scoreboard at Augusta National, where The Masters is played.

Apparently someone complained, because the newer version of the commercial has a rectangular scoreboard. People at Augusta National can be a little touchy.

1) If I own the New York Giants, I bring Odell Beckham Jr in and tell him we do not want him punching opposing players, because you can break your hand punching a football helmet. The last thing the Giants need is Beckham with a broken hand.

**Udog** · 10-08-2015, 08:44 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Division Series

Texas @ Toronto

Game 901-902
October 8, 2015 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas
(Gallardo) 16.648
Toronto
(Price) 18.143
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-240
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-240); Over

Houston @ Kansas City

Game 903-904
October 8, 2015 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(McHugh) 17.142
Kansas City
(Ventura) 16.090
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
6 1/2
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
-140
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+120); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 8

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TEXAS (88 - 74) at TORONTO (93 - 69) - 4:05 PM
YOVANI GALLARDO (R) vs. DAVID PRICE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 93-69 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TORONTO is 49-30 (+16.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TORONTO is 53-28 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
TORONTO is 53-28 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on artificial turf this season.
TORONTO is 72-52 (+13.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TORONTO is 48-31 (+13.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TORONTO is 24-8 (+14.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PRICE is 24-8 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
PRICE is 11-1 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in day games this season. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 88-74 (+29.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 36-23 (+19.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TEXAS is 45-36 (+24.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
TEXAS is 21-12 (+15.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TEXAS is 48-43 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 35-31 (+11.7 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 47-40 (+16.2 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TEXAS is 45-27 (+30.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TEXAS is 22-15 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
GALLARDO is 11-4 (+10.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GALLARDO is 10-2 (+10.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-2 (+1.3 Units) against TEXAS this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

YOVANI GALLARDO vs. TORONTO since 1997
GALLARDO is 3-0 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 1.33 and a WHIP of 0.984.
His team's record is 3-0 (+3.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

DAVID PRICE vs. TEXAS since 1997
PRICE is 3-7 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 5.04 and a WHIP of 1.345.
His team's record is 7-7 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-7. (-1.0 units)

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HOUSTON (87 - 76) at KANSAS CITY (95 - 67) - 8:05 PM
COLLIN MCHUGH (R) vs. YORDANO VENTURA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 34-48 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 22-31 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 95-67 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 51-30 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 14-4 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 92-63 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 66-51 (+5.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 64-40 (+19.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KANSAS CITY is 56-40 (+10.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
KANSAS CITY is 43-24 (+18.3 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 86-65 (+16.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 41-28 (+11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 87-70 (+4.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
HOUSTON is 64-64 (+11.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MCHUGH is 34-23 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MCHUGH is 21-9 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-2 (+1.9 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.9 Units)

COLLIN MCHUGH vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
MCHUGH is 1-0 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.714.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

YORDANO VENTURA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
VENTURA is 2-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.380.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.0 units)

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MLB
Short Sheet

Thursday, October 8

Texas at Toronto, 3:35 PM EDT
Texas: 23-11 SU against AL East opponents
Toronto: 18-7 OVER after 2 or more consecutive losses

Houston at Kansas City, 7:35 PM EDT
Houston: 22-31 SU in road games in night games
Kansas City: 42-26 SU against AL West opponents

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, October 8

American League
Rangers vs Blue Jays
Gallardo is 1-2, 5.59 in his last four starts (under 8-1-1 in last ten).

Price is 5-0, 2.61 in his last five starts (over 3-1 in last four)

Rangers lost six of last eight games with Toronto (under 6-4 last ten); Texas is in the playoffs for first time since losing first AL Wild Card game in 2012- they've won four of last six games overall (over 5-4 in last nine).

Blue Jays are in playoffs for first time since winning '93 World Series; they lost four of last five games, after they clinched AL East-- over is 5-0-1 in their last six games.

Astros vs Royals
McHugh is 3-0, 2.49 in his last three starts (over 4-2-1 in last seven).

Ventura is 3-0, 3.23 in his last five starts (under 3-0 in last three).

Houston won seven of its last nine games to get here; this is Astros' first postseason since 2005. Astros are 7-2 in last nine games with Royals, but lost last two (under is 4-1 in last five). Houston played in Bronx Tuesday and is now here.

Kansas City lost Game 7 of World Series LY, its first playoff appearance since 1985; Royals won last five games overall (under 6-2 in last eight).

MLB

Thursday, October 8

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Trend Report
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3:37 PM
TEXAS vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Texas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Toronto's last 16 games when playing Texas

7:37 PM
HOUSTON vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games

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**Udog** · 10-08-2015, 09:35 AM

MLB

Thursday, October 8

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ALDS Doubleheader Betting Preview: Rangers-Blue Jays, Astros-Royals
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The Jays host the Rangers and the Royals host the Astros as both ALDS's get undwerway Thursday.

Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays (-230, 8.0)

The Toronto Blue Jays play their first postseason game in 22 years when they host the Texas Rangers on Thursday in the opening game of the American League Division Series. Joe Carter's walk-off homer against Philadelphia won the 1993 World Series for the Blue Jays and the franchise hasn't been part of the postseason since that memorable moment.

Texas wasn't forecasted to be playing in October but the club stunningly won the AL West after winning just 67 games in 2014. Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre swung a hot bat over the past two-plus months - .328 with 10 homers and 56 RBIs - and has five career postseason homers. Toronto has an explosive offense but leading AL MVP candidate Josh Donaldson has struggled on the postseason stage with no homers and no RBIs in 43 career at-bats. Ace pitcher David Price starts Game 1 and he has experienced his own postseason issues by going 0-5 with a 4.98 ERA in five starts.

TV: 3:37 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1, Sportsnet

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Blue Jays as -230 home favorites and has held steady there. The total also hasn't moved off its opening number of 8.0.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "It's awful tempting to bet against the Blue Jays given the outlandish price in Game 1. Gallardo has owned Toronto this season, and the Rangers have won seven of his last nine road starts. Price on the other hand owns a 5.04 ERA while going 3-7 lifetime against the Rangers."

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers RH Yovani Gallardo (13-11, 3.42 ERA) vs. Blue Jays LH David Price (18-5, 2.45)

Gallardo defeated Toronto twice this season and didn't allow a run in 13 2/3 innings - the only victories the Rangers had against the Blue Jays in six meetings. He was 2-2 with a hefty 4.85 ERA in six September starts but his success versus the Blue Jays made him the easy Game 1 call for manager Jeff Banister. "I just go up there and pitch my game," Gallardo said in a press conference. "They know the way I pitch. It seems like I have faced those guys throughout my career. It's not easy."

Price was 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA in 11 starts for the Blue Jays after being acquired from Detroit. He will have 11 days off between starts so the possibility of early inning command issues does exist. Price won each of his final five regular-season starts but is just 3-4 with a 5.15 ERA in 11 career regular-season outings against the Rangers and is 0-3 with a 4.66 ERA in three postseason starts against Texas - the playoff outings coming when he pitched for the Tampa Bay Rays.

TRENDS:

* Rangers are 7-0 in Gallardo's last seven starts versus the AL East.
* Blue Jays are 5-0 in Price's last five starts.
* Under is 8-0-1 in Gallardo's last nine starts during Game 1 of a series.
* Under is 5-1 in Price's last six home starts.

Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals (-137, 7.5)

The Kansas City Royals begin defense of their American League pennant while the visiting Houston Astros attempt to be this year's surprise postseason force when the AL Division Series opens on Thursday. Kansas City took the wild-card route to the World Series a year ago and now Houston is looking to duplicate the feat after dispatching the New York Yankees in Tuesday's wild-card contest.

The Astros lost an average of 104 games over a four-year span before turning things around this season behind a young group. "I think this team is prepared, I think they’re ready," said closer Luke Gregerson, one of the team's veterans. "I know they’re young, but they showed this ain’t no fluke. This team can play some baseball. We can pitch, we can hit and we’ve got the opportunity to win." The Royals were expected back in the postseason mix and didn't disappoint and how look to get back to the World Series. "We've been looking forward to this since the end of spring training," manager Ned Yost said. "That's the big change from last year. Last year, we hoped we would be in position to make the playoffs. This year, we knew we were going."

TV: 7:37 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

LINE HISTORY: The Royals open as -137 home favorites and the total opened at 7.5.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Royals finished with the best record in the majors after closing the season on a five game winning streak. But they didn't look as good in the second half as they did in the first, and their bullpen has lost it's air of invincibility without closer Greg Holland." Covers Expert Jesse Schule.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros RH Collin McHugh (19-7, 3.89 ERA) vs. Royals RH Yordano Ventura (13-8, 4.08)

McHugh finished the season strong by winning his last six decisions and has proven to be a quality complement to ace Dallas Keuchel. He won his lone career start against the Royals, firing seven innings of five-hit shutout ball during the 2014 season and was craving the opportunity to start the opener. “To be able to have that chance on Thursday is a real blessing," McHugh told reporters. "It’s going to take some preparation the next couple of days, but I like our chances.”

Ventura has won 27 games over the past two seasons and was tabbed to pitch the opener over struggling Johnny Cueto. "Ventura has been excellent in his last six, seven starts," Yost told reporters. "And we wanted to keep everybody on five days' rest. We thought that would work out best for us." Ventura is 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA in three career starts against Houston and posted a victory on July 26 when he allowed one run and six hits over seven innings.

TRENDS:

* Astros are 6-1 in McHughs last seven starts.
* Royals are 6-1 in Ventura's last seven home starts.
* Over is 4-0-1 in McHugh's last five road starts versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 13-2-1 in Ventura's last 16 starts versus the American League West.

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Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/8

Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/8

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