The Bum's Sports Page For Monday September 14th Best Bets-Trends-News !

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Favorites and over dominate the first Sunday of season

Favorites and the over were the dominant bets to cash on the first Sunday of the NFL season, both going 9-4 in the 13 games played yesterday.

That means both were cashing at a rate of 69.23 percent.

There is a Monday night doubleheader to close out Week 1, with Philadelphia 3-point favorites at Atlanta with a total of 55 and Minnesota a 2-point favorite at San Francisco with a total of 41.5.

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Falcons, Eagles must limit damage from opposing QBs

When the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles collide in Monday Night Football, both sides will be seeking to shore up their respective defenses when it comes to limiting the damage from the opposing men under center.

Last season, Atlanta (279.9) and Philly (264.9) allowed the most passing yards per contest in the entire league. Sportsbooks initially opened the total for the matchup at 49.5 but have since hiked that up to 52.

The Eagles are currently 2.5-point favorites at most shops.

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Monday Night Football doubleheader preview: Eagles at Falcons, Vikings at 49ers

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5, 55)

The new Sam Bradford Era kicks off in earnest on Monday night when the oft-injured quarterback leads the Philadelphia Eagles into Atlanta to face the Falcons in the season opener. Acquired from St. Louis for fellow QB Sam Foles in the offseason, Bradford isn't the only highly publicized new face on Chip Kelly's team, as reigning Offensive Player of the Year DeMarco Murray (1,845 yards, 13 touchdowns) has shuffled over from NFC East rival Dallas to take the place of the departed LeSean McCoy.

Philadelphia allowed free-agent wide receiver Jeremy Maclin to head to Kansas City, believing that second-year Jordan Matthews can thrive on the inside while rookie Nelson Agholor can make hay on the outside. Speaking of wide receivers, two-time Pro Bowler Julio Jones reeled in 104 receptions for a franchise-record 1,593 yards last season en route to securing a five-year deal worth $71.25 million in the summer. "We think Julio is an elite receiver in this league, obviously," Kelly said. "He presents a lot of problems because of his combination of size and speed. Usually guys that are 6-foot-2-plus, 6-3, 220 (pounds) don't run as fast as Julio." Matt Ryan (4,694 yards, 28 TDs) will likely look for Jones on many occasions, but his rebuilt offensive line may have a say in whether he has enough time to find him.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Eagles -3. O/U: 55

LINE HISTORY: After opening the Giants as 6-point home favorites, sportsbooks have since moved them to -5. The total opened at 49.5 but has risen to 52 as of this writing.

WEATHER: N/A

INJURY REPORT: Philadelphia - L. Johnson (probable), K. Alonso (probable), Z. Ertz (questionable), M. Smith (questionable), J. Shepherd (IR). Atlanta - J. Tamme (probable), J. Matthews (probable), R. White (probable), D. Hester (out), B. Reed (IR), J. Asamoah (IR), T. Howard (IR), C. Mooney (IR), L. Holmes (eligible Week 7).

ABOUT THE EAGLES (2014: 10-6, 2nd, NFC EAST): Philadelphia's defense also features several new faces as linebacker Kiko Alonso was acquired from Buffalo for McCoy and cornerback Byron Maxwell came over from Seattle. At 6-1, 207 pounds, Maxwell may be the best candidate to press Jones at the line, but he'll need help over the top to keep the speedy wideout in check. Also new to Philadelphia is Ryan Mathews, who is expected to spell Murray while also platooning with pass-catching Darren Sproles in the backfield.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (2014: 6-10, 3rd, NFC SOUTH): New offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will attempt to figure out a backfield in flux as rookie Tevin Coleman has been promoted to starter with Devonta Freeman nursing a nagging hamstring injury. Veteran Roddy White is dealing with a balky knee following a pair of injury-plagued campaigns while Leonard Hankerson replaces the departed Harry Douglas (Tennessee) as the team's third wideout in a pass-happy offense. Atlanta finished last season second in completions (418), third in attempts (632) and fifth in passing yards (4,553) while its 372 rushing attempts were sixth worst in the league.

TRENDS:

*Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Atlanta.
*Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
*Eagles are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games in September.
*Eagles are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 64 percent of wagers are on the Eagles.


Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 41.5)

Star running back Adrian Peterson is back in the lineup and that alone is reason for optimism for the Minnesota Vikings, who kick off their season with a visit to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night. Peterson was limited to only one game last season after charges of child abuse were leveled against him and wound up on the Commissioner's exempt list.

“You hear the name Adrian Peterson, what do you think? The best running back in the league,” Vikings wide receiver Charles Johnson said. “He’s going to draw a lot of attention." Perhaps the only positive to come out of Peterson's absence was the development of rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who lived up to his first-round status over the final month of the season. The 49ers, meanwhile, entered last season as one of the favorites to reach the Super Bowl, but they are loaded with uncertainty after switching head coaches and undergoing massive personnel changes. Jim Tomsula takes over for Jim Harbaugh, who returned to his alma mater Michigan, and faces the unenviable task of overhauling a defense that lost four players to retirement to go with the release of star pass rusher Aldon Smith.

TV: 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Vikings -2.5. O/U: 41.5

LINE HISTORY: The pointspread has been on a wild ride in this one, as books are currently dealing San Fran +2.5 after opening them as 4-point faves.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 69 degree Fahrenheit ballpark at game time.

INJURY REPORT: Minnesota - M. Pruitt (probable), J. Robinson (out indefinitely), J. Price (eligible Week 3), J. Sullivan (IR), P. Loadholt (IR), C. Matthews (IR). San Francisco - A. Brooks (probable), T. Smith (probable), J. Simpson (eligible Week 7), K. Hunter (IR), D. Anderson (IR), D. Kilgore (IR), D. Smelter (IR).

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2014: 7-9, 3rd NFC NORTH): Peterson had scored at least 10 touchdowns in each of his first seven seasons and rushed for at least 1,266 yards in six of his first seven campaigns, so he'll provide Bridgewater with a major weapon. Bridgewater, who completed 72.1 percent of his passes and threw for eight touchdowns versus five interceptions over the final five games, has another deep threat in wideout Mike Wallace and a big red-zone target in tight end Kyle Rudolph, who has missed nearly half his games over the past two seasons. Minnesota's defense improved as the season went on, holding six of its last 11 opponents to 17 points or fewer.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (2014: 8-8, 3rd NFC WEST): Quarterback Colin Kaepernick finished with 19 touchdown passes versus 10 interceptions while reaching career highs in passing (3,369) and rushing yards (639), but he'll be without veteran running back Frank Gore. Carlos Hyde is expected to take over in the backfield while Torrey Smith provides blazing speed at wide receiver, but the 49ers could use a return to form by tight end Vernon Davis, who managed only 26 receptions and a career-worst two touchdown catches. The linebacking corps took a hit with the retirements of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland while the losses of Aldon Smith and the retired Justin Smith weaken the pass rush.


COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of bets are on the Vikes, per Covers Consensus.

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Cowboys WR Bryant (foot) out 4-6 weeks

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant will miss at least one month recovering from surgery to repair a broken bone in his right foot.

Bryant broke his foot during the third quarter of his first game since signing five-year, $70 million contract in July.

"I hurt for him right now, because I know how much he loves to play this game," said quarterback Tony Romo.

Bryant had a difficult opener even before getting injured. He left the game in the first half to be treated for dehydration. He finished with five catches for 48 yards and was replaced by Terrance Williams as the Cowboys' primary receiver. Tight end Jason Witten and slot receiver Cole Beasley will get more looks, but offensive coordinator Scott Linehan said replacing Bryant will be a week-to-week adjustment based on the opponent.

Devin Street, a second-year player from Pitt, could start and got up to speed during offseason workouts Bryant skipped during a contract dispute.

"We really worked on our depth with Dez not being there in the offseason," Linehan said Sunday.

Owner Jerry Jones said Bryant will have a pin inserted in his foot during surgery which is expected to take place Tuesday.

"He's one of the best players we have and one of the best in the league and he makes a huge difference for us," coach Jason Garrett said.

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Monday Morning Hangover: How your bets were won and lost this weekend

Each Monday morning, Rob Cressy shakes the cobwebs from his head and breaks down how your football bets were won and lost, as well as calls out some of the best and worst from the gridiron this past weekend

Welcome to the 2015 football season. It’s one that’s certain to be a fantastic voyage. Each week, I’ll be in the house to give a recap of the gambling weekend with the requisite number pieces of flair.

To help set the table you should know a few things about me. First, I’m an action junkie who loves sports betting for the thrill of making the game more interesting. I care more about being right than I do about winning money.

Second, I’m a square who’s trying to think more like a sharp. I’ve slowly become a contrarian bettor who’s comfortable with being uncomfortable. I mainly come to my betting decisions based on information from a combination of sources, including Twitter and ***********, of course. I know that I don’t have all the answers, so that’s why I rely on others who are more knowledgeable than I am.

You could say that I’m your above average sports junkie. I play fantasy football (both college and NFL), host a daily live streaming DFS show, and my weekends are spent watching sports from the second I wake up until the second I go to bed.

Now that we’ve established who I am, let’s get to the football weekend that was.

The slate of college football action was out of this world this past weekend. I finally figured out which channel on DirecTV SEC Network was because of the Auburn vs. Jacksonville State game.

As a 41-point underdog, I was certainly rooting for Jacksonville State to pull the upset. Unfortunately, stupid is as stupid does as a series of bone-headed mistakes (personal foul, shanked punt), after forcing what looked to be the game-winning turnover, ultimately did them in.

I felt stung by this loss as I love rooting for the big upset. Instead, this game will just be an afterthought in my football rooting memory. The only positive that came from this game was this amazing custom jersey from an Auburn fan...

Later on that evening I had Virginia +11.5, thanks in part to everyone and their brother saying that it was a bad spot for the very public Notre Dame Fighting Irish. While the cover was never really a question during the game, the moneyline certain was. The ending for Virginia moneyline bettors can be summed up in one picture...

Brutal.

Speaking of brutal, congrats to Mississippi State for getting a 5-yard penalty in the closing seconds, changing a 47-yard field goal to win the game into a 52-yarder, which inevitably missed. Yet another case of stupidity rearing its ugly head. By the way, big shout out to Leonard Fournette who balled out of his mind.

Also vying for my attention was Oklahoma vs Tennessee, where “Big Game” Bob Stoops was able to keep his resume in the drawer for at least another week. With plenty of taco dip and Miller Lite in my belly, that was all she wrote for Saturday.

My excitement of Week 1 of the NFL season can be summed up with this line from one of my favorite movies ever, Baseketball...

Yes, I like Baseketball and yes, that’s Al Michael’s and Bob Costas saying that.

I knew Sunday was gonna be great because I was loaded with action. I’m in a survivor pool, four fantasy football leagues, had a lot of DFS action going, plus had my usual handful of bets on the games.

My card looked like this:

Panthers @ Jaguars +3
Titans +3 @ Buccaneers
Lions @ Chargers -3
Bengals @ Raiders +3

What better way to start the season than putting my faith in the Jaguars, Titans, and Raiders. Like I said, I’ve worked on becoming comfortable with being uncomfortable.

The play that got the NFL season going for me was Josh McCown thinking he was Superman.

The reason it was so important is because at the 11th hour I decided to switch my survivor pool pick from the Buccaneers to the Jets. The Browns were in the midst of a monster drive and there’s no such thing as feeling safe when Ryan Fitzpatrick is your quarterback. One helicopter fumble later and the game (and potentially the Browns season) is different.

By the way, didn’t know that D Wade was a Jets fan.

You might be wondering why I took the Jets as my survivor pool pick. The reasoning was that 12 of the 16 Week 1 games had a spread of 3.5 of less. I don’t like taking road teams and I don’t like taking divisional matchups either. Sometimes you’ve just gotta cross your fingers and trust Ryan Fitzpatrick (something I hope to not say often this season).

One thing I looked for when choosing which games to bet on is where the action was being placed. Last season, I was successful using the 80/20 Rule which states, when 80 percent of the bets are on one side, take the other.

There’s no such thing as free money in sports betting and over time the 20 percent will cover more than the 80 percent. At times during the week, there were three games in which the 80/20 Rule applied: Packers -6.5 vs Bears, Dolphins -3.5 @ Redskins, and Colts -2.5 @ Bills. Of those games, the 80 percent won twice.

Speaking of favorites, they went 9-5 against the spread (note: because some of the lines were so tight there may have been late line moves where this changed who was the favorite or in the case of the Patriots caused a push) in Week 1, heading into the Monday nighters.
In 11 of the 14 games, the side where the majority of the betting action came in covered. Only one team who covered did not win the game outright, the Giants. The Over also went 9-5, which is also good for Joe Public.

As for that Giants vs. Cowboys game, the last second score by Dallas pushed the total over, giving bettors the backdoor cover. Martellus Bennett’s TD with 34 seconds left also backdoor covered for the Over in the Bears vs Packers tilt.

The game that was the biggest winner for the books was the Bengals covering versus the Raiders as the sharps were on the Silver and Black. You know you are in big trouble when the Raiders go-to combo becomes Matt McGloin to Marcel Reece.

One of the biggest losers for the books – and there were many - was the Chargers covering versus the Lions. The action was hot and heavy on the Chargers and the books didn’t care that Matthew Stafford can’t beat a team with a winning record on the road.
Like that scene from Braveheart where William Wallace keeps telling his troops to hold the line, the books were willing to withstand the punishment, but to no avail...

Now time for some quick hitters:

• "It ain’t a hit till Nate Dogg spit" (Gangsta Nation by Westside Connection) is the “It ain’t a Packers vs. Bears game till Jay Cutler throws a game-crushing interception.”

• Heading into the week the tight end position looked pretty thin for DFS. However, there were some big time performances by Gronk, Travis Kelce, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jason Witten and Tyler Eifert.

• Big shout out to DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Philip Rivers, Chris Ivory, Danny Woodhead, and Stevie Johnson. Each had great games making DFS owners very happy.

• Speaking of shout outs, ball so hard Marcus Mariota. So much for that "he’s not aggressive enough" crap from the preseason. I’ll take four TDs and zero INTs any day.

• The Dolphins win the award for best worst fumble of the year so far.

The best TD celebration of the week goes to the aforementioned Travis Kelce.

• Did anyone else hear Tony Gonzalez pick the Bills to go to the Super Bowl? After seeing their impressive and hard-hitting (see video below) victory over the Colts that doesn’t seem so crazy.

I hope you enjoyed my Week 1 gambling recap. It may have been all over the place like a Tavon Austin kick return but hopefully it found its way into the end zone.
Good luck to all you MNF bettors. I’m hoping for a shootout in the Falcons vs. Eagles game and looking forward to seeing how Teddy Bridgewater and Carlos Hyde perform.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 2

September 13, 2015


Overall Notes

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 62-13

Against the Spread 42-33

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 54-21

Against the Spread 42-33

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 25-25-1

The largest underdog to win straight up

Toledo (+21.5, ML +925) at Arkansas, 16-12

The largest favorite to cover
Texas Christian (-45) vs. Stephen F. Austin, 70-7

Top 25 Notes

-- Nine Top 10 teams won, with only Oregon slipping up because they were facing a fellow Top 10 team in Michigan State. Top 10 teams managed to go just 3-7 ATS, with Auburn having perhaps the most shocking result. FCS Jacksonville State took the Tigers to overtime because the No. 6 team escaped with a 27-20 victory. Jack State nearly pulled off one of the biggest upsets is the history of college football, entering as a 40-point underdog. ... Arkansas wasn't as fortunate to escape, as 22 1/2-point underdog Toledo pulled off the shocker against the Razorbacks. ... Notre Dame needed some late heroics to stun Virginia in Charlottesville. With :12 left, backup QB DeShone Kizer hit William Fuller on a 39-yard Hail Mary play to kill moneyline bettors of the Cavaliers. The Irish lost Heisman candidate QB Malik Zaire to a fractured ankle, and he is expected to be done for the regular season with a chance at a return for a bowl game. ... For the second straight week, Southern California steamrolled their opponent - this time Idaho. The Trojans roughed up the Vandals 59-9, and have now outscored their opponents 114-15, going 2-0 SU/ATS in the process.

-- Louisiana State had their first game against FCS McNeese State postponed last weekend, so they were a bit of a question mark heading into their game against Mississippi State. They passed their first test with flying colors, winning 21-19 in Starkville to quiet the cowbells in the end.

-- Mississippi also covered for a second straight week, as they pounded Fresno State by a 73-21 count in Oxford. Ole Miss is averaging a gaudy 74.5 points per game, going 2-0 SU/ATS to date. The offensive fireworks are likely to slow next Saturday in an SEC West showdown at Alabama.

-- Another team having no trouble on offense is Georgia Tech. They rolled Tulane 65-10 as a 32 1/2-point favorite, and the Ramblin' Wreck is averaging 67.0 points per game through two showings while going 2-0 SU/ATS. They will also have their most stern test to date next Saturday when they head to South Bend to take on the Irish.

-- Top-ranked Ohio State was a little sluggish in its home opener against Hawaii, failing to cover a 41-point number. However, the defense did pitch a shutout in the 38-0 victory. The next two weekends feature visits from MAC schools Northern Illinois and Western Michigan, so the cakewalk looks to continue well into October before things pick up with the conference schedule.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- The Atlantic Coast Conference got off to a quick start with Miami-Florida covering Friday night at Florida Atlantic after a sluggish start. ... Speaking of sluggish, Florida State was a little rusty initially against South Florida, probably thanks to an 11:30 am ET kickoff. However, after a 7-7 halftime score, it was all FSU in the second half when they outscored the Bulls 27-7. Still, it was a non-cover for FSU, as they slip to 1-1 ATS, and 4-12 ATS over their past 16 games overall. ... Syracuse lost QB Terrel Hunt to a season-ending Achilles' injury in Week 1, but they ran away from Wake Forest in the second half to open the ACC schedule 1-0. The Orange are now 2-0 SU/ATS with Central Michigan paying a visit next weekend. ... It wasn't a great game for Louisville, as they dropped to 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS with a 34-31 loss at home to Houston. It doesn't figure to get much better with Clemson paying a visit Thursday, giving the Cards only a few days to regroup.

-- Illinois picked up a 44-0 win over FCS Western Illinois, as Wes Lunt and company are off to a good start. The Illini have outscored the opposition 96-3 so far this season, good for a 2-0 SU/ATS mark. The Illini head to North Carolina next Saturday trying to hand UNC its first non-cover. ... Indiana hasn't looked great, but they are 2-0 SU after a 36-22 win against Florida International. That's two overs for the Hoosiers, who are averaging 42.0 points per game while allowing 34.5 points per game. They welcome high-powered Western Kentucky to 'The Rock' next Saturday in what should be a track meet. ... Michigan picked up the first win of the Jim Harbaugh era with a 35-7 win over Oregon State. The Wolverines have allowed just 15.5 points per game for a pair of unders in their first two.

-- Baylor got off to a slow start against FCS Lamar, actually trailing the 57-point underdogs by a 14-13 score at one point midway through the second quarter. But in true Bears fashion, they quickly pieced things together and ended up throttling the Cardinals 66-31. The Bears are averaging 61.0 points per game, while allowing 26.0 points per game. Needless to say, the over is 2-0 for Baylor so far. ... Texas rebounded with a 42-28 win over Rice in an old Southwest Conference rivalry revival, but the Longhorns killed bettors in the fourth quarter (see bad beats below). ... Something is not quite right with Oklahoma State. While they moved to 2-0 SU, and a win is a win, they struggled with FCS Central Arkansas and are now 0-2 ATS. ... Kansas is one of the worst teams in the nation, getting humbled at home by Kansas. The Jayhawks are 0-2 SU/ATS, and will trry to right the ship at Rutgers in two weeks after a bye.

-- Colorado rebounded after their Week 1 loss in the islands, throttling Massachusetts by a 48-14 count. The Buffs easily covered an 11 1/2-point number to even up at 1-1 SU/ATS. ... Washington State went cross-country and picked up a late win at Rutgers, 37-34, to rebound after a shocking 24-17 loss at home to FCS Portland State. If anything, the Cougs are fun to watch. ... Arizona also looked much better in their game at Nevada, winning and covering Nevada after a shaky opening performance against UTSA. ... Stanford also rebounded nicely after their ugly Week 1 loss at Northwestern, pasting visiting UCF by a 31-7 score. ... Arizona State continues to have more questions than answers, struggling against the triple-option of FCS Cal Poly. It was actually tied 21-21 into the fourth quarter before the Sun Devils pulled away from the Mustangs for an unsatisfying 35-21 win.

-- The SEC had a black eye with Arkansas, and Tennessee lost the marquee game against Oklahoma. And remember Auburn's near-nightmare. It wasn't all bad, though. Georgia continues to look solid, and Alabama is a machine. But how about Kentucky, improving to 2-0 with a road win at South Carolina. The Wildcats are now 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS, but they need to work on keeping a lead. Perhaps the Wildcats are used to being in the situation, but they have been outscored 41-18 in the second half this season.

Mid-Major Report

-- Conference USA had a so-so weekend. Charlotte surprisingly moved to 2-0 SU/ATS with a 34-10 win over FCS Presbyterian. However, it wasn't a very good showing for Texas-San Antonio at home against Kansas State and a former walk-on QB subbing for their regular signal caller. UTSA fell to 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. ... Southern Mississippi is a team which has looked much, much better. They held their own against Mississippi State last weekend with a cover, and they moved to 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS with a 52-6 stomping of FCS Austin Peay. ... Western Kentucky got on track with their offense after a shaky 14-12 win at Vanderbilt in their opener. The 'Toppers are now 2-0 SU/ATS after their 41-38 win over Louisiana Tech. Chad Morris is making a difference at Southern Methodist, too, as they posted a 31-13 win over North Texas. The Mustangs are 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS on the young season. It will be interesting to see if they can slow down TCU next weekend.

-- The MAC held their heads high with Toledo stunning Arkansas, and Bowling Green running away from Maryland by a 48-27 count. ... Buffalo wasn't able to surprise Penn State, but they did pick up their second cover in as many weeks. Next up is a road trip to Florida Atlantic of C-USA. ... Eastern Michigan went out to Laramie and spanked Wyoming as 13-point underdogs, winning 48-29. The Eagles are now 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS with a date with Ball State looming in the MAC opener next Saturday. ... Ohio is also 2-0 SU/ATS after a rather easy win over former MAC member, and current C-USA team Marshall. ... Central Michigan is also 2-0 ATS through the first two weekends. Ball State, BGSU, EMU and WMU have watched the over hit in each of their first two games. ... Kent State hit the over for the second time in two games, too, and had a female kick an extra point through in their win over FCS Delaware State.

-- Air Force pulled away from San Jose State for the win and cover, moving to 2-0 SU/ATS. .. Hawaii also held on for the cover, their second in as many weeks, after an odyssey to Columbus. .. Boise State, Nevada, San Diego State and Wyoming have each slipped to 0-2 ATS through their first two games. ... Not one team in the Mountain West has had the over hit in each of their first two games, as defense has ruled the day. The under has hit in the first two games for Hawaii, SDSU and Utah State so far.

Bad Beats

-- In the bad beat department, Boston College was a 44-point favorite over FCS Howard. They ran out to a 41-0 lead after one quarter, and 62-0 at half. The third and fourth quarters were shortened to 10 minutes a piece, and 55 minutes is official for action, so the game was graded as a 'no play' despite the utter domination by BC.

-- Brigham Young was at it again. Boise State held a 24-14 lead heading into the fourth quarter in Provo. Not only did BYU kill side bettors for the Broncos, but they scored a Hail Mary touchdown to take a 28-24 lead with :45 left in regulation, and then added a pick-six with :30 left to absolutely stun 'under' (56.5) bettors.

-- Texas held a 42-14 lead heading into the fourth quarter against Rice as 14 1/2-point favorites. However, the Owls outscored the Longhorns 14-0 in the fourth quarter for the backdoor cover at most shops.

-- Michigan State side bettors were feeling good until Oregon struck for a touchdown with 3:25 to go in regulation, changing the result from a Sparty cover to a Ducks road cover in the final minutes of regulation.

-- 'Under' (66.5) were hoping USC would call off the dogs in the fourth quarter, but they scored a touchdown midway through the fourth quarter to push the total over in their 59-9 win over hapless Idaho.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, September 14

Washington at Philadelphia, 7:05 EST
Zimmermann: 25-6 TSR as a favorite of -150 or more
Philadelphia: 38-75 when the total is 7 to 8.5

Miami at NY Mets, 7:10 EST
Miami: 30-51 after a loss
New York: 45-24 in home games

San Diego at Arizona, 9:40 EST
Shields: 8-1 TSR on the road off back to back losses
Arizona: 67-84 in home games

Colorado at LA Dodgers, 10:10 EST
Colorado: 19-41 after a win by 2 runs or less
Los Angeles: 36-11 as a home favorite of -150 or more

Cincinnati at San Francisco, 10:15 EST
Cincinnati: 24-51 as an underdog of +125 to +175
San Francisco: 40-14 as a favorite of -150 or more

Boston at Baltimore, 7:05 EST
Boston: 27-17 OVER on the road when the money line is +125 to -125
Baltimore: 36-28 OVER after a win

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay, 7:10 EST
New York: 17-22 after 4 or more consecutive home games
Tampa Bay: 35-21 UNDER against division opponents

Kansas City at Cleveland, 7:10 EST
Volquez: 21-8 TSR in all games
Carrasco: 4-10 TSR in home games in night games

Houston at Texas, 8:05 EST
Houston: 28-22 as an underdog of +100 to +150
Texas: 24-42 in home games against division opponents

Oakland at Chicago White Sox, 8:05 EST
Gray: 4-10 TSR after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing
Danks: 10-3 TSR in home games after a loss

Detroit at Minnesota, 8:10 EST
Detroit: 28-43 when the total is 8 to 8.5
Minnesota: 74-68 in all games

LA Angels at Seattle, 10:10 EST
Los Angeles: 27-12 in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders
Seattle: 15-21 at home when the total is 7 or less

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Monday, September 14


Hamels, Kazmir trending in opposite directions

The Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers begin a huge series with the AL West lead on the line and Game 1 features two newly acquired pitchers who are trending in opposite directions.

For the Rangers Cole Hamels got off to a slow start, but the Rangers have won his last five starts while he has pitched to a 3.34 ERA.

Meanwhile, the Astros have gone just 1-6 in Kazmir's last seven starts, while he has put up a 4.28 ERA.

The Rangers are currently -123 home favorites for the series opener.


A's not a fan of facing lefties when on the road

The Oakland Athletics are one of the league's worst road teams this season, but it is even worse when they go up against left-handed starts away from home, going just 4-22 in their last 26 road games versus a southpaw.

Oakland backers are hoping they buck the trend Monday night when the A's visit the Chicago White Sox and scheduled starter, lefty John Danks (4.60 ERA, 11-14 O/U).

Luckily for the A's they will counter with their ace Sonny Gray (2.28 ERA, 13-11 O/U) and are slight -115 road favorites.


Red Sox cashing overs against bad teams

The Boston Red Sox are getting in high scoring affairs against bad teams, with the over going 23-4-1 in the BoSox last 28 games versus a team with a losing record.

That's exactly what will be happening when they visit the 79-73 Baltimore Orioles Monday night.

The Red Sox send Eduardo Rodriguez (4.05 ERA, 11-7 O/U) to the mound to take on the Orioles Kevin Gausman (4.43 ERA, 4-8 O/U). The total is currently at 8.5 runs.


Indians crushing right-handers at home

The Cleveland Indians crushing right-handers at home, scoring 8.0 runs per game in their last six games against right handers. The Indians and the over are 6-0 in those games.

Indians and overs backers hope the streak continues Tuesday night when the Tribe hosts the Kansas City Royals in the opener of a four-game series.

Cleveland sends Carlos Carrasco (3.70 ERA, 17-9 O/U) to the hill, while Kansas City will counter with Edison Volquez (3.49 ERA, 13-13 O/U). The Indians are currenly -139 favorites with a total sitting at 7.5 runs.

[StarDust Bum]

Team Pitcher Open Line Movements Current Runline Scores

7:05 PM EDT

951 WASHINGTON NATIONALS (R) Zimmermann, J -160 -156 / -160 / -159 -160 -1.5(+100)
952 PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (R) Nola, A 7.5o20 7.5o20 / 7.5o15 / 7.5 7.5u20 +1.5(-120)

WAS-LF-Bryce Harper-Probable | TV: MASN2, DTV: 641 | MOSTLY FAIR, WIND LEFT TO RIGHT 8-13. GAME TEMP 72, RH 37% HEAT INDEX 71

7:10 PM EDT

953 MIAMI MARLINS (L) Nicolino, J 8u15 7.5o15 / 7.5 / 7.5u15 7.5 +1.5(-130)
954 NEW YORK METS (R) Verrett, L -180 -180 / -182 / -190 -191 -1.5(+110)

MIA-RF-Giancarlo Stanton-OUT | TV: FS-Florida, SNY, DTV: 639, 654 | MOSTLY FAIR, WIND LEFT TO RIGHT 11-16. GAME TEMP 74, RH 38% HEAT INDEX 74

9:40 PM EDT

955 SAN DIEGO PADRES (R) Shields, J 8.5u15 8.5 / 8.5o15 / 8.5o16 8.5o15 +1.5(-215)
956 ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (R) Hellickson, J -115 -115 / -113 -109 -1.5(+185)

TV: FS-Arizona, FS-San Diego, DTV: 686, 694 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WIND LEFT TO RIGHT 20-30, GUSTY. GAME TEMP 90, RH 32% HEAT INDEX 90

10:10 PM EDT

957 COLORADO ROCKIES (R) Gray, J 6o20 6.5 / 6.5u15 / 6u33 6o15 +1.5(+130)
958 LOS ANGELES DODGERS (L) Kershaw, C -350 -360 / -361 / -360 -361 -1.5(-150)

TV: ROOT-Rocky Mountain, DTV: 683 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, WIND OUT TO RIGHT CENTER 7-12. GAME TEMP 75, RH 59% HEAT INDEX 78

10:15 PM EDT

959 CINCINNATI REDS (R) Sampson, K 7.5o15 8u20 / 7.5o20 / 8u20 8u15 +1.5(-135)
960 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (R) Hudson, T -170 -173 / -175 / -176 -181 -1.5(+115)

TV: CSN-Bay, FS-Ohio, DTV: 660, 696 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, WIND OUT TO CENTER 12-17. GAME TEMP 62, RH 83%

7:05 PM EDT

961 BOSTON RED SOX (L) Rodriguez, E 8.5 8.5u11 / 8.5 / 8.5u28 8o15 +1.5(-165)
962 BALTIMORE ORIOLES (R) Gausman, K -115 -130 / -143 / -145 -146 -1.5(+145)

TV: MASN, NESN, DTV: 628, 640 | MOSTLY FAIR, WIND OUT TO RIGHT 3-8. GAME TEMP 72, RH 44% HEAT INDEX 72

7:10 PM EDT

963 NEW YORK YANKEES (L) Sabathia, C -104 8u13 / 8u20 / 7.5u15 7.5 +1.5(-230)
964 TAMPA BAY RAYS (R) Ramirez, E 8 -108 / -109 / -110 -111 -1.5(+190)

NYY-1B-Mark Teixeira-OUT | TV: SunSports, DTV: 653 | Dome

7:10 PM EDT

965 KANSAS CITY ROYALS (R) Volquez, E 7.5 7.5 / 7.5o16 / 7.5o20 7.5o15 +1.5(-160)
966 CLEVELAND INDIANS (R) Carrasco, C -135 -140 / -141 / -150 -151 -1.5(+140)

TV: FS-Kansas City, SportsTime Ohio, DTV: 662, 672 | FAIR, WIND LEFT TO RIGHT 7-12. GAME TEMP 70, RH 49%

8:05 PM EDT

967 HOUSTON ASTROS (L) Kazmir, S 8o15 8o15 / 8 / 8u15 8 +1.5(-185)
968 TEXAS RANGERS (L) Hamels, C -130 -128 / -129 / -124 -125 -1.5(+165)

HOU-CF-Carlos Gomez-Doubtful | TV: FS-Southwest, ROOT-Southwest, DTV: 674, 676 | MOSTLY FAIR, WIND IN FROM RIGHT CENTER 12-17. GAME TEMP 87, RH 27% HEAT INDEX 85

8:10 PM EDT

969 OAKLAND ATHLETICS (R) Gray, S -130 -120 / -121 / -130 -133 -1.5(+120)
970 CHICAGO WHITE SOX (L) Danks, J 8u15 7.5o15 / 7.5o14 / 7.5o15 7.5o20 +1.5(-140)

TV: CSN-California, DTV: 698 | FAIR, WIND RIGHT TO LEFT 12-17. GAME TEMP 76, RH 49% HEAT INDEX 78

8:10 PM EDT

971 DETROIT TIGERS (L) Lobstein, K 8.5 8.5 / 8.5o15 / 9u20 9.5u20 +1.5(-140)
972 MINNESOTA TWINS (R) Duffey, T -160 -157 / -161 / -163 -170 -1.5(+120)

TV: FS-Detroit, FS-North, DTV: 663, 668 | FAIR, WIND RIGHT TO LEFT 10-15. GAME TEMP 76, RH 61% HEAT INDEX 78

10:10 PM EDT

973 LOS ANGELES ANGELS (R) Richards, G -115 -110 / -109 / -108 -109 -1.5(+150)
974 SEATTLE MARINERS (R) Walker, T 7 7 7o15 +1.5(-170)

TV: FS-West, ROOT-Northwest, DTV: 687, 692 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, 40% CHANCE LIGHT

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Consensus Picks

SIDES (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

7:10 PM Miami +165 212 21.97% NY Mets -180 753 78.03% View View

10:15 PM Cincinnati +165 229 24.39% San Francisco -180 710 75.61% View View

8:10 PM Detroit +148 258 26.52% Minnesota -161 715 73.48% View View

10:10 PM Colorado +318 252 27.21% LA Dodgers -355 674 72.79% View View

8:05 PM Houston +114 344 35.54% Texas -123 624 64.46% View View

9:40 PM San Diego -103 339 38.79% Arizona -105 535 61.21% View View

7:10 PM NY Yankees +102 421 45.22% Tampa Bay -110 510 54.78% View View

7:05 PM Boston +131 443 45.91% Baltimore -142 522 54.09% View View

7:10 PM Kansas City +136 518 53.90% Cleveland -147 443 46.10% View View

8:10 PM Oakland -132 506 55.48% Chi. White Sox +122 406 44.52% View View

10:10 PM LA Angels -113 587 65.59% Seattle +104 308 34.41% View View

7:05 PM Washington -155 644 66.74% Philadelphia +143 321 33.26% View View


TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

8:10 PM Oakland 7.5 266 47.33% Chi. White Sox 7.5 296 52.67% View View

8:05 PM Houston 8 279 47.69% Texas 8 306 52.31% View View

9:40 PM San Diego 8.5 314 54.90% Arizona 8.5 258 45.10% View View

7:10 PM Miami 7.5 322 55.81% NY Mets 7.5 255 44.19% View View

7:10 PM NY Yankees 8 364 62.33% Tampa Bay 8 220 37.67% View View

7:05 PM Washington 7.5 377 63.26% Philadelphia 7.5 219 36.74% View View

10:10 PM LA Angels 7 357 63.64% Seattle 7 204 36.36% View View

7:10 PM Kansas City 7.5 389 64.09% Cleveland 7.5 218 35.91% View View

8:10 PM Detroit 9 390 64.57% Minnesota 9 214 35.43% View View

10:10 PM Colorado 6 383 67.67% LA Dodgers 6 183 32.33% View View

10:15 PM Cincinnati 7.5 420 68.97% San Francisco 7.5 189 31.03% View View

7:05 PM Boston 8 466 70.93% Baltimore 8 191 29.07% View View

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:05 PM ET Boston +133 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Baltimore - Over 8 500

Washington - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia +143 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Philadelphia - Over 7.5 500

Kansas City - 7:10 PM ET Cleveland -147 500
Cleveland - Over 7.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

NY Yankees - 7:10 PM ET NY Yankees +101 500
Tampa Bay - Over 8 500

Miami - 7:10 PM ET Miami +165 500 DOUBLE PLAY
NY Mets - Under 7.5 500

Houston - 8:05 PM ET Houston +114 500
Texas - Under 8 500

Oakland - 8:10 PM ET Oakland -133 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 7.5 500

Detroit - 8:10 PM ET Minnesota -161 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Minnesota - Under 9 500

San Diego - 9:40 PM ET Arizona -105 500
Arizona - Under 8.5 500

LA Angels - 10:10 PM ET Seattle +104 500 *****
Seattle - Under 7 500

Colorado - 10:10 PM ET Colorado +318 500 DOUBLE PLAY
LA Dodgers - Over 6 500

Cincinnati - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -180 500 DOUBLE PLAY
San Francisco - Over 7.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY


NFL SELECTIONS IN NFL THREAD....GOOD LUCK !