The Bum's Sports Page For Saturday August 15th Best Bets-Trends-News !

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WNBA

Long Sheet

Saturday, August 15

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TULSA (10 - 14) at NEW YORK (15 - 6) - 8/15/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games this season.
NEW YORK is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in home games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
TULSA is 3-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Saturday, August 15

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
TULSA vs. NEW YORK
Tulsa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tulsa is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
New York8-1-1 SU in its last 10 games
New York is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

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WNBA

Dunkel

Saturday, August 15


Tulsa @ New York

Game 601-602
August 15, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tulsa
104.230
New York
120.746
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New York
by 16 1/2
144
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New York
by 8
149
Dunkel Pick:
New York
(-8); Under

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Preview: Shock (10-14) at Liberty (16-6)

Date: August 15, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

Given how things are going for the New York Liberty and Tulsa Shock, it's stunning that the Eastern Conference leaders' lone defeat to a West club came against Tulsa.

The Liberty will be heavily favored to avenge that loss as they seek a fifth consecutive victory Saturday night at home against a Shock club that has dropped 10 straight yet remains in firm control of a playoff spot.

New York (16-6) has established itself as the class of the East, getting a season-high 31 points from Tina Charles in Friday's 90-78 victory at Connecticut. Now the Liberty can focus on winning a sixth straight home game while improving to 8-1 versus the West.

The lone blemish was a 71-62 defeat to the Shock on June 26 in which Charles was held to nine points and Sugar Rodgers was the only Liberty player to score in double figures with 12. Tulsa (10-14) forced 26 turnovers to win despite shooting 33.9 percent, with Riquna Williams leading the way with 11 points.

The Shock had a healthy Skylar Diggins then and the star guard played one more game before suffering a season-ending torn ACL. Tulsa got off to an 8-1 start with her but has won twice in 15 games since with this losing streak the club's longest since a WNBA-record 20-game skid in 2011.

The mediocre competition in the West, however, has been a saving grace for the franchise set for relocation to the Dallas area. Tulsa is in third place, leading Los Angeles by 2 1/2 games and San Antonio by three. The top four reach the playoffs.

The losing may have created some tension. All-Star forward Plenette Pierson was benched for the first time in Wednesday's 80-74 road loss to the Sun. The Shock's game notes indicate she will return as a starter for this contest.

Odyssey Sims led the Shock with 15 points in Connecticut, with 10 in the first quarter. The second-year guard from Baylor was out with a leg injury when these clubs met in June.

Charles' dominant effort Friday came after she was held to a season-low four points in Tuesday's 84-63 rout of Chicago. She is second in the league with 9.2 rebounds per game with Tulsa's Courtney Paris first at 9.9. Charles held an 8-5 rebounding edge over Paris in the first meeting.


WNBA HEAD TO HEAD

Jun 26, 2015 Score ATS Results
NEW 62 Under: 133
TUL « 71 Cover: 0.5
Tools: Recaps

Jul 1, 2014 Score ATS Results
TUL 74 Over: 164
NEW « 90 Cover: 13.5
Tools: Recaps

Jun 10, 2014 Score ATS Results
NEW 57 Under: 129
TUL « 72 Cover: 11
Tools: Recaps

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Standings

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Team Win Loss Percent GB Home Away Conf. Last 10 Streak

New York Liberty 16 6 0.727 0 8-2 8-4 9-5 9-1 W-4

Chicago Sky 15 10 0.600 2 10-3 5-7 10-6 6-4 W-1

Indiana Fever 13 9 0.591 3 8-4 5-5 9-7 7-3 W-2

Washington Mystics 13 9 0.591 3 8-4 5-5 8-8 7-3 L-1

Connecticut Sun 12 11 0.522 4 7-6 5-5 4-10 5-5 L-1

Atlanta Dream 8 15 0.348 8 5-6 3-9 4-8 2-8 L-1



WESTERN CONFERENCE

Team Win Loss Percent GB Home Away Conf. Last 10 Streak

Minnesota Lynx 18 6 0.750 0 10-2 8-4 13-4 7-3 W-3

Phoenix Mercury 15 8 0.652 2 10-2 5-6 12-3 7-3 W-1

Tulsa Shock 10 14 0.417 8 6-5 4-9 6-10 0-10 L-10

Los Angeles Sparks 7 16 0.304 10 5-7 2-9 6-10 5-5 L-2

San Antonio Stars 7 17 0.292 11 7-5 0-12 5-9 4-6 L-1

Seattle Storm 6 19 0.240 12 4-6 2-13 5-11 3-7 L-2

Updated Sat Aug 15 11:07 AM EDT

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PGA - 3rd Round Odds

August 14, 2015

The second round of the PGA Championship was suspended on Friday evening as a heavy thunderstorm moved into the area.

Play will resume at 7:00 a.m. ET on Saturday morning, which will feature over 50 golfers looking to finish their second rounds.

Of those golfers at least 30 of them have a great shot of making the projected cut line, which is currently 2-over par.

The PGA Championship brings back the top 70 players, plus ties, for the final two rounds.

Prior to the suspension, a pair of Australians shared the lead. Jason Day and Matt Jones both sit at 9-under and both have yet to complete their round.

Right behind the Aussies is Justin Rose at 8-under and he’s nearly in the clubhouse, waiting to complete the 18th hole.

The clubhouse leader is David Lingmerth, who finished early on Friday and sits at 7-under.

Behind Lingermerth is a trio of American golfers in Jordan Spieth, Scott Piercy and Brendan Steele.

Spieth shot a 5-under 67 on Sunday and is once again in the mix for his third major championship victory this year.

Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag have Spieth listed as a 4/1 betting choice to win the PGA, while Day is the favorite at 2/1 odds.

One notable that stood out on Friday was Japan’s Hiroshi Iwata, who blitzed Whistling Straits with a 9-under 63, which matches the lowest sing-round score in a major.

Bettors can wager on the final major via LIVE Odds from Sportsbook.ag.

Listed below are the latest odds per Sportsbook.ag heading into the weekend.

Odds to win 2015 PGA Championship (8/14/15) - per Sportsbook.ag

Jason Day 2/1
Jordan Spieth 4/1
Justin Rose 11/2
Dustin Johnson 12/1
David Lingmerth 22/1
Matt Jones 25/1
Rory McIlroy 30/1
Tony Finau 30/1
JB Holmes 35/1
Russell Henley 40/1
Danny Lee 50/1
Harris English 50/1
Hideki Matsuyama 50/1
Brendan Steele 60/1
Matt Kuchar 60/1
Scott Piercy 60/1
Billy Horschel 70/1
Brandt Snedeker 80/1
Henrik Stenson 80/1
Martin Kaymer 80/1
Paul Casey 80/1
Brooks Koepka 85/1
Bubba Watson 85/1
Louis Oosthuizen 85/1
George Coetzee 100/1
Branden Grace 150/1
Charles Howell 150/1
Francesco Molinari 150/1
Justin Thomas 150/1
Hiroshi Iwata 200/1
Marcel Siem 200/1
Anirban Lahiri 250/1

Odds Subject to Change - Updated 8.14.15 - 7:30 p.m. ET

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Preseason Notebook

August 14, 2015


-- Vernon Adams passed his math test Thursday to graduate from Eastern Washington, making him eligible to play for Oregon this season. Adams is expected to be the starter, though his tardiness to joining the team might put that off until mid-to-late September. Adams is a dynamic playmaker who threw for 475 yards and seven touchdowns without an interception in a 59-52 loss at Washington last year.

-- Coincidentally, Oregon opens its season against Eastern Washington on Sept. 5 and the Ducks have been installed as 35-point favorites.

-- Michigan State linebacker Ed Davis went down with a season-ending injury at Tuesday's practice in East Lansing. This is a huge loss for the Spartans. Davis had 58 tackles (five for loss), seven sacks and five QB hurries last year.

-- Tennessee WR Marquez North sprained his knee at Wednesday's practice and is expected to be out for a week. There was a false report that North was out for the season. The junior has started 21 career games. North had 30 receptions for 320 yards and four TDs before getting sustaining a season-ending injury in Week 10 last year. Senior OG Marcus Jackson, who has 17 career starts, suffered an arm injury earlier this week that could leave him out for the entire season.

-- Auburn WR Duke Williams was reinstated to the team Thursday after missing five consecutive days of practice due to a 'discipline issue.' Williams is ranked by ESPN's Mel Kiper as the No. 1 WR prospect in the NFL 2016 Draft class.

-- Clemson junior DB Korrin Wiggins tore his ACL on Wednesday is out for the year. Wiggins had 34 tackles and a pair of interceptions in 2014.

-- Kentucky LB Jason Hatcher has been suspended for the first two games of the season (vs. UL-Lafayette and at South Carolina). Hatcher started six games in 2014, registering 28 tackles (four for loss) and 1.5 sacks.

-- Cordell Broadus, the son of rap icon Snoop Dog, has quit the UCLA football team. The 4-star recruit is reportedly planning on giving up football altogether. Broadus was a star player at Bishop Gorman in High School in Las Vegas.

-- Michigan DE Bryan Mone was expected to start this season until breaking his ankle earlier this week. He's likely out for the entire 2015 campaign. As a true freshman last year, he had 9 tackles.

-- Vanderbilt sophomore WR C.J. Duncan sustained a lower-leg injury on Aug. 11 that will keep him out for the entire 2015 season. As a true freshman last year, Duncan had 28 receptions for 441 yards and four touchdowns.

-- Maryland's Abner Logan was expected to start at one of the linebacker positions this year, but he suffered a season-ending ACL tear earlier this week.

-- SMU lost a pair of players this past week. Fourth-year junior OG Seaver Myers is out for the season due to an undisclosed injury. Myers played 14 games over the past two seasons, starting five last year. He was projected as a starter for new head coach Chad Morris. Myers was a 3-star recruit in the 2012 class who chose SMU over Texas A&M and Louisville. Also, redshirt freshman RB Daniel Gresham has been forced to retire due to a bulging disc in his neck. - See more at: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-....DasWwu5A.dpuf

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Team to Watch - Georgia Tech

August 14, 2015

We were a bit surprised a year ago when many otherwise sharp college football observers who would gather across I-75/85 from campus at The Varsity were routinely dismissing Georgia Tech (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS, 8-6 OU) and HC Paul Johnson after a couple of admittedly lackluster seasons in Atlanta. Those sorts, however, would eventually be reminded of Johnson’s acumen when the Yellow Jackets rallied from the middle of the pack to win the Coastal half of the ACC, then beating rival Georgia in a thrilling regular-season finale before narrowly missing an upset of then-unbeaten Florida State in the conference title game.

Georgia Tech Future Odds
To win ACC - 5/1
To win National Championship - 100/1
Over-Under Win Total - 7.5 (Over -140, Under +120)

Odds Subject to Change - Updated 8.14.15 per Westgate SuperBook

Proving that the 2014 renaissance was no fluke, Tech would then dismantle a Mississippi State squad that had ascended to the top of the polls earlier in the season. The Yellow Jackets were well worth their 49-34 romp on the Orange Bowl that restored some honor for the ACC and provided a much-needed boost of confidence for the conference thanks to handily beating a second well-regarded foe from the ballyhooed SEC in a five-week span.

Those in the know, however, have always realized that Johnson remains one of college football’s shrewdest game managers, and one who had long ago proven an ability to get his teams punching above their weight (remember all of the successes at Navy between 2002-07). Since moving to Tech in 2008, Johnson’s Jackets have been “bowling” each year. Granted, some campaigns disappointed, specifically when Johnson’s ill-advised hire of Al Groh as d.c. would boomerang a few years ago. In 2013, Tech also floundered somewhat as Johnson’s attempt to modernize his option-based offense by customizing the playbook for QB Vad Lee’s passing abilities would instead backfire.

But no one ever said Johnson was dumb, so it was no surprise to see Tech return to Johnson’s option-centric infantry roots last season while the “D” had stabilized post-Groh under the steady hand of respected d.c. Ted Roof, once upon a time the HC at Duke.

Having the proper option pilot in Justin Thomas was the key to last year’s offensive renaissance that produced a whopping 37.9 ppg (ranked 11th nationally). Thomas, perhaps the fastest-ever QB in a Johnson offense, ignited the option by rushing for over 1000 yards while proving a dangerous pass threat as well, tossing for 18 TD passes (almost Dan Marino-like for a Johnson “O”) last fall. Now a junior, Thomas has generated some peripheral Heisman mention entering the fall, though there is a bit of concern regarding a supporting staff that lost some established firepower to graduation after the Orange Bowl win.

Specifically, a productive RB corps would depart almost en masse, as the graduated trio of Synjyn Days (in the Dallas Cowboys camp this summer), Zach Laskey (in the St. Louis Rams camp this summer), and Charles Perkins would combined for 337 carries and 2218 YR last season as the Ramblin’ Wreck would rank tops nationally with 342 ypg rushing.

But no Johnson offense has ever been short of quality backs, and even potential season-ending injuries in spring to expected replacements C.J. Leggett and Quaide Weimerskirich might not slow the option which has added a Stanford transfer, Patrick Skov, to the RB mix along with a couple of well-regarded true frosh, Marcus Marshall and Mikell Lands-Davis, plus various RS frosh itching to contribute. ACC sources also suggest that position switches that have moved RS frosh Qua Searcy and former WR Marcus Allen to the backfield give Johnson plenty of coast-to-coast options in his backfield. Better yet, all will be motoring behind a vet OL that returns four starters led by likely NFL draftees LT Bryan Chamberlain and C Freddie Burden.

Thomas will also be aiming passes toward a restructured WR corps after the graduation of big-play threats DeAndre Smelter and Darren Waller, but jr. Michael Summers looks a capable heir apparent, and there will be plenty of speedy targets for Thomas to utilize. The Roof “D” was a bit permissive vs. the run in 2015 but has an experienced look about it with seven returning starters and several others who saw considerable action a year ago. Moreover, sr. Jabari Hunt-Days is eligible again after missing all of 2014 due to academics and is expected to make a significant impact at DT after being moved from DE in spring. Soph DE KeShun Freeman also earned various Frosh A-A accolades last fall and looms as an impact presence on the edge.

Roof, who junked Groh’s ill-advised 3-4 in 2013 for more-traditional 4-3 looks that often morph into 4-2-5 alignments as needed, also has plenty of veteran options in his back 7. Junior OLB P.J. Davis now appears comfy with Roof’s schemes and is another potential impact presence on the edge, while the secondary is the deepest in memory at Bobby Dodd Stadium, with an all-senior projected starting lineup led by big-play CB D.J. White, involved in game-saving takeaways vs. Virginia Tech and Georgia last season.

2014 was also a point-spread recovery for Johnson, whose superb marks vs. the number from earlier in his career (especially as a dog and on the road) took some hits in recent years. Tech covered 6 of 7 as a dog last season en route to covering 10 of 14 overall.

2015 Schedule
Sept. 3 vs. Alcorn State
Sept. 12 vs. Tulane
Sept. 19 at Notre Dame
Sept. 26 at Duke
Oct. 3 vs. North Carolina
Oct. 10 at Clemson
Oct. 17 vs. Pittsburgh
Oct. 24 vs. Florida State
Oct. 31 at Virginia
Nov. 12 vs. Virginia Tech
Nov. 21 at Miami, Fl.
Nov. 28 vs. Georgia

Every game looks winnable on the Tech schedule, but overall it looks a more-challenging slate than a year ago, especially a four-game stretch beginning in late September that includes trips to Notre Dame and Duke before hosting North Carolina and a 3-hour bus ride on I-85 to Clemson. November is not easy, either, with a trip to Miami sandwiched by home games vs. revenge-minded Virginia Tech and Georgia.

Those various banana peels make it unlikely for the Jackets to be involved in any Final Four discussion. But Johnson won the Coastal with a young team in 2014, and a more-experienced roster again looks the best in the GT half of the ACC. Don’t be surprised if, like a year ago, Tech sneaks its way back into the New Year’s Six, where another opposing coach (such as Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen last December) will be cursing his luck that he drew the Jackets and Johnson’s option.

The chili and slaw dogs and the frosted oranges at The Varsity will likely go down very easy for Tech backers this fall. - See more at: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-....HEhU8MWb.dpuf

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Season Props to Watch

August 12, 2015


Who else is ready for college football?! If you aren't ready yet, then you better get ready. It's right around the corner. In a few weeks, we'll have regular season games that mean something on the gridiron. Nothing against the NFL preseason, but it is nice when both teams are trying their best to pick up the win.

College football has been a strong sport for me. While many bettors only look at individual games for betting opportunities, I recommend looking deeper than that. There are absolutely good values to be found on individual games, but the season win totals, futures, and prop bets are often stronger investments for me.

Because these particular bet types aren't as widely bet by the public, oddsmakers spend a little less time on these odds.

I had success last year with my season win total best bets. This year's season Win Total selections are already up. I'm looking to find value in futures and prop bets as well this year.

Here are my top five college football futures and prop bets.

1) Auburn in New Year's Six Bowl (Yes at -120)

I really like the Auburn Tigers heading into the 2015 season. Auburn was the runner up two years ago when Florida State edged them out. Auburn led for much of that game, and they were just a couple plays away. The Tigers took a step back last year and lost five games. It would be easy to write them off, but this Tigers team is going to be very good. Jeremy Johnson is a great fit at quarterback, and a Gus Malzahn offense is always going to be able to run the football. The big difference though is the defense. Will Muschamp is a tremendous defensive mind, and the Tigers return eight talented guys on that side of the ball. Auburn won't have to outscore everyone this year. They should at least be in a New Year's Six Bowl.

2) Houston Cougars to win American Athletic Conference (+675)

The Houston Cougars have gone 8-5 in the last two seasons, but they have a new coach this year. Tom Herman is the man, and I think he's a fabulous hire for the Cougars. Herman was a great recruiter at Ohio State, and there's always tons of talent in the Houston area. If Herman can keep a few more of those guys home, Houston could be the team to beat every year in the AAC. Herman has been a quarterbacks coach for a long time, and I fully expect Greg Ward to be much more productive with Herman showing him the way. The AAC should be an exciting conference with a lot of improved offenses this year. The primary reason I like Houston though is their strength on the defensive end. Houston should be able to come up with key stops when other AAC contenders can't, and +675 is a steal of a price.

3) Wisconsin Badgers to win Big Ten West (+150)

Melvin Gordon Jr. isn't an easy guy to replace, but Wisconsin can always run the football. Corey Clement averaged 6.5 yards per carry last year, and he should be very good running behind the Badgers strong offensive line in the season ahead. Paul Chryst is the new head coach here, and he's all about running the football and controlling the clock. Why is there value on the Badgers? Wisconsin plays in the much weaker division of the Big Ten. Nebraska should be down in their first year of a new system, Iowa is as inconsistent as any team in the nation, and Northwestern has taken a significant step back of late. Add in the fact that Wisconsin plays the easiest conference schedule of any Big Ten team. While I don't think Wisconsin is an elite team this year, I think it's very likely they win the weak Big Ten West.

4) Virginia Tech to win the ACC (+700)

I think this one is a tremendous value. I also like Virginia Tech to win the Coastal at +150 or better. The Hokies upset Ohio State last year in Columbus, and then proceeded to fall off the map. Injuries were the primary reason for that huge fall. Frank Beamer is a quality coach, and Bud Foster's defense will be one of the top five in the nation. Unlike the past two seasons, there is no dominant team in the ACC this season. Florida State is definitely down a couple notches, and Clemson has a lot of question marks on defense. Why can't Virginia Tech sneak in here? If you take them at this big of a price to win the conference, you could easily hedge out with a big winner before the title game is played if they reach that game. Good price on an underrated team.

5) Florida State Not in a New Year's Six Bowl (-140)

The Seminoles weren't really as good as their record last year, and they should be significantly worse this season. Without a star at quarterback, the Seminoles will have to rely on the running game. Dalvin Cook is a star, but the offensive line isn't very good. Everett Golson still has to prove a lot to me. He turns the ball over far too much, and hasn't been big in the biggest games. Is he really the answer at quarterback for Florida State? The ugly drop in production from the Seminoles defense last year would worry me a lot if I was a Florida State fan. The team gave up 116 yards per game more than they did in 2013. If that continues, Florida State won't be in a major bowl game this season.

[StarDust Bum]

At the Gate - Saturday

August 14, 2015

The Arlington International Festival of Racing is on tap at Arlington Park on Saturday, and we have five graded stakes including a pair of Breeders’ Cup Challenge ‘Win and You’re In” races.

The marquee event is the $1 million Arlington Million (G1), which is a ‘Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) at Keeneland on Oct. 31. A field of 13 will line up including five overseas invaders.

Trainer Chad Brown has the top two betting choices in Big Blue Kitten (3-1) and Slumber (7-2) while the best of the Euro invaders appears to be the John Gosden trained Maverick Wave (8-1). Gosden saddled the 2010 winner Debussy to an upset score.

The $700,00 Beverly D. (G1) drew a field of 10 fillies and mares with the winner earning an automatic starting spot in this fall’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1).

The key to the race is trying to figure out what to do with Stephanie’s Kitten (7-2), who has been disappointing in her last two starts, a fourth in the New York (G2) and a fifth in the Diana (G1).

As you can see below in today’s featured race, I am looking for the overseas invaders to make up the exacta.

At Saratoga we have a couple of graded stakes on the 11-race card. The $200,000 Adirondack (G2) is for two-year-old fillies and the $500,000 Fourstardave Handicap (G2) is a wide-open turf event at one mile,

The Adirondack drew a field of seven juveniles with trainer Todd Pletcher sending out a pair, Delicate Lady (6-1) and the 8-5 morning line favorite Tonasah.

Tonasah went gate to wire to break her maiden in her debut at Belmont Park on July 2, winning by 5 1/2 lengths. She was entered in the Astoria (G3) before her maiden win but was scratched after getting loose in the post parade. Pletcher has won this race in three of the last nine years.

Nine will go to the post in the Fourstardave led by King Kreesa (3-1), who won the Poker (G3) and Forbidden Apple in his last two outings. The New York bred has some speed but faces an accomplished group that includes last year’s winner Seek Again (6-1), Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (G1) winner Mshawish (7-2) and Jack Milton (6-1), winner of the Makers 46Mile (G1) back in April.

Vyjack (6-1) is 0 for 2 on turf in his career but ran well in the Poker and Forbidden Apple and may be worth a look at a decent price.

Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:00 ET)
5 Metal Magic 4-1
3 Show Bound 7-2
1 Donegal Moon / 1a Patrick's Day 2-1
7 Sallisaw 6-1

Analysis: Metal Magic pressed the early pace, opened up a lead and could not hold off the winner late in a tough nose loss in his debut at Churchill Downs. He was 6 1/2 lengths clear of the third place finisher in that effort. He has three local drills since shipping in from Kentucky for the Kenneally barn that is 27% winners with second out maidens.

Show Bound was bumped coming out of the gate, stalked the early pace and finished evenly in a third place finish last out. He was a good second two back in the Bashford Manor (G3) at Churchill Downs. Blinkers are added today for the Asmussen barn that is 20% winners when adding the hood for the first time. The $170,000 Keeneland purchase is out of a Hennessy mare that has dropped three other foals to race with a pair of winners.

Wagering
WIN: $5 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 1,3,5,7
TRI: 3,5 / 1,3,5,7 / 1,3,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 10 The Fourstardave (6:25 ET)
7 Vyjack 6-1
5 Seek Again 6-1
4 King Kreesa 3-1
1 Mshawish 7-2

Analysis: Vyjack gets the call in a wide open race. The gelding was switched to turf after landing with the Mott barn and he has put in two good efforts behind King Kreesa. I liked him in the Lure on Aug. 8 but Mott scratched him for this tougher spot. He was only beaten 3/4 of a length two back in the Poker (G3) and last out was a decent third, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. He gets four pounds from the likely favorite today and he should be a decent price.

Seek Again is the defending champion of this race, winning by a neck last year despite a tough trip. The Mott trainee comes into this race off a decent third last out in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) at Santa Anita. He returns here off a two-month break for his third start off the long layoff. Decent value if he goes off near his 6-1 morning line.

King Kreesa is coming off a pair of sharp wins, taking the Poker and Forbidden Apple, last out a career top speed fig. There is not much pace in here and he could have things fairly easy up front, which will make him a danger in this spot. His price may end up on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 5,7 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,2,4,5,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Arlington Park:

AP Race 9 The Beverly D. G1 (5:05 CT)
8 Euro Charlie 5-2
9 Wedding Vow 4-1
3 Stephanie's Kitten 7-2
6 Carla Bianca 8-1

Analysis: Euro Charlie is the defending champion of this race and she is coming into this year's edition off a good second in the Falmouth Stakes (G1) which was just her second start since winning here last year. The winner of that race was the talented Amazing Maria, who came back to win the Prix Rothschild (G1) in France in her next outing on Aug. 2. She won here last year with a good late run, beating Stephanie's Kitten by 3/4 of a length and returning her backers $23.60. The price is going to be shorter in this spot.

Wedding Vow makes her U.S. debut here for the Aiden O'Brien barn, and while she has won just once in her seven career starts, she is coming in off a good effort in her last start. She broke her maiden two back winning the Kilboy Estate Stakes (G2). Last out she was a good second behind Legatissimo in the Qatar Nassau Stakes (G1) at Goodwood, beaten 2 1/4 lengths. Euro invaders have a good recent record in this race and the U.S. contingent does not look as strong.

Wagering
WIN: #8 t win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 8,9 / 3,6,8,9
TRI: 8,9 / 3,6,8,9 / 3,6,8,9,10

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R2: #4 Hawkshaw 10-1
R3: #7 Silverado Star 8-1
R3: #4 Gracious Plenty 12-1
R4: #1 Delicate Lady 8-1
R5: #1 Cabo Cat 8-1
R5: #3 All Tied Up 10-1
R6: #2 Omey Island Girl 8-1
R7: #10 Battlefront 10-1
R8: #2 Guggenheim 8-1

Good luck today!

[StarDust Bum]

EPL Best Bets - Week 2

August 14, 2015

Week 1 Recap

The opening weekend of the Premier League is in the books and the biggest story took place at the Emirates Stadium where West Ham United stunned Arsenal 2-0 as an eye opening 15/1 underdog. A lot of the blame was directed at Gunners new goal keeper Petr Cech, who wasn’t in top form.

Including that loss, favorites managed to post a 4-3 record in Week 1 to go with three draws.

The one tie that came as a surprise occurred at Stamford Bridge as Swansea City earned a 2-2 draw with the defending champions of the Premier League, Chelsea. The Blues were down to 10 men after goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois was sent off with a red card early in the second half and were fortunate not to sacrifice the points.

Total players watched the ‘over’ go 6-4 in the opening weekend.

Future Update

Prior to last week’s action, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag had Chelsea as the top betting choice (3/2) to win the 2015-16 Premier League championship.

After the opening weekend, the offshore outfit has flip-flopped the Blues with Manchester City, who are now a 9/5 (Bet $100 to win $180) favorite. Chelsea is 2/1 while Arsenal (9/2) and Manchester United (5/1) are still considered contenders.

Bettors should make a note of Arsenal’s opening setback because only three teams have won the Premier League Championship after losing its season opener. The last to do so was Manchester United in the 2012-13 campaign.

Newbies

The three promoted clubs went 0-1-2 in their opening weekend.

Norwich City at Sunderland: Each club lost by two goals last week and you would have to believe defense will be stressed in this spot. Prior to Norwich’s relegation at the end of the 2014, these teams met six teams and Sunderland went 1-2-3 during that span.

Watford vs. West Bromwich Albion: Watford had a great chance to secure three points at Everton last week but they gave up leads twice, the last one coming in the 86th minute. West Brom was embarrassed on Monday to Man City and knowing they have Chelsea on deck, the sense of urgency is high.

Bournemouth at Liverpool: The Cherries will play their first Premier League road fixture on Monday at Anfield against a Liverpool squad that stole a win in its opener. Bournemouth had chances to score last week but lacks finishing. The newbies like to spread the field and counter, which could both help and hurt them in this spot.

Top 4

Manchester United played on Friday and notched its second straight 1-0 victory and sit atop the live table with six points. The Reds haven’t been overwhelming by any means but it’s worth noting that it took Louis can Gaal’s team seven games to get above this number in the EPL last season. Plus, they only had two 1-0 victories last season and that was with goalkeeper David De Gea, who has been left out both games thus far.

The three remaining elite teams all play on Sunday, which includes a battle between Chelsea and Manchester City from Ethiad Stadium.

Arsenal at Crystal Palace (Sunday, 8:30 a.m. ET, NBCSN)

After being embarrassed at home last Sunday, bettors could be hesitant to back Arsenal (-140) as a road favorite in Week 2, especially against a confident Crystal Palace squad.

Last week, coach Alan Pardew and company notched a 3-1 road win over Norwich City but the result could be a tad misleading. Norwich won the possession battle (63-37) and were certainly more aggressive when it came to shots (17-11). And if it wasn’t for a high boot foul that took a goal off the board, this game could’ve easily ended 2-2.

Last season, Palace struggled at home with a 6-3-10 record while getting outscored 27-21.

Arsenal has won all four of their meetings with Crystal Palace since the club moved back up to the EPL, outscoring them 8-2 over this span.

Chelsea at Manchester City (Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET, NBCSN)

The odds on this matchup make you believe that Manchester City (+110) should secure three points and Chelsea’s (+280) best effort would only earn them a draw (+250).

Chelsea’s defense didn’t look great against Swansea last Saturday and despite netting two goals, which weren’t exactly superb, the offense lacked any flow. The Blues won’t have Courtois available due to last week’s booking, which means

Man City had a few early fortunate bounces too in Week 1 as they defeated West Bromwich Albion 3-0 on the road. Considering they controlled possession (69-31) and managed 20 shots (7 on goal), it’s fair to say they didn’t capitalize as much as they could have.

Last season, the pair played to a pair of 1-1 draws in the Premier League meetings.

The total has held steady (2.5, Under -20) all week at most betting shops. The ‘under’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight encounters and neither team has cracked more than two goals during this span.

Fearless Predictions

Despite going 1-1 last weekend, the bankroll started off in the black albeit for just 30 cents ($30). Let’s hope the momentum carries over in Week 2.

Straight – West Bromwich Albion (+240) over Watford – 1 Unit

Straight – Arsenal (-150) over Crystal Palace – 2 Units

Straight – Over 2.5 (-135) Liverpool-Bournemouth – 1 Unit

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Team Pitcher Open Line Movements Current Runline Scores

1:05 PM EDT
965 NEW YORK YANKEES (R) Tanaka, M 8o15 8 / 8o11 / 8u15 8o15 +1.5(-195)
966 TORONTO BLUE JAYS (R) Estrada, M -125 -113 / -114 / -115 -121 -1.5(+165)

NYY-3B-Alex Rodriguez-Doubtful | TV: YES, DTV: 631

1:35 PM EDT

967 SEATTLE MARINERS (R) Hernandez, F -140 -153 / -140 / -126 -133 -1.5(+120)
968 BOSTON RED SOX (L) Miley, W 8.5u15 8.5u15 / 8.5u16 / 8.5u15 8.5o20 +1.5(-140)

TV: NESN, ROOT-Northwest, DTV: 628, 687

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MLB Consensus Picks

SIDES (ATS)

1:07 PM NY Yankees +110 291 34.81% Toronto -119 545 65.19% View View

1:35 PM Seattle -131 539 67.80% Boston +121 256 32.20% View View

TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)

1:35 PM Seattle 8.5 201 44.87% Boston 8.5 247 55.13% View View

1:07 PM NY Yankees 8 270 55.44% Toronto 8 217 44.56% View View

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RECAPPING YESTERDAY'S ACTION:

MLB: 8 - 3 - 0

WNBA: 5 - 1 - 0

CFL: 1 - 1

NFL: 3 - 8 - 1


WNBA JUNE/ JULY RECORD/ AUGUST :

*****...............................18 - 18 - 2
DOUBLE PLAY....................42 - 36
TRIPLE PLAY......................20 - 14
SLAM DUNK.......................23 - 19

MLB RECORD FOR JUNE/JULY/AUGUST:

*****.............................100 - 118 - 1 .....................,........- 14.50
double play......................153 - 166 - 2 ..............................- 31.18
triple play........................77 - 68 - 2 ................................. - 4.82
grand slam......................90 - 89 - 3......................,............- 19.67
double grand slam.............8 - 9..........................................- 2.72
.
CFL JUNE/JULY/ AUGUST RECORD:

SINGLE PLAY.................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAY................................8 - 14
TRIPLE PLAY..................................7 - 3
BLOW OUT.....................................3 - 2

NFL PRESEASON RECORD:

SINGLE PLAY..................................... 6 - 4
DOUBLE PLAY.................................... 2 - 5
TRIPLE PLAY ..................................... 1 - 3 - 1
BLOW OUT......................................... 0 - 0

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Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Six jobs college football coaches had before they hit it big in coaching:

-- Nick Saban-- Drove a Coke truck in Akron for three summers.

-- Mike Leach-- Was a substitute teacher while an assistant coach at Cal Poly.

-- Butch Jones-- Was intramurals director and tennis coach, even though he has never played tennis.

-- Paul Johnson-- Was a caddy for $6 a bag at a golf course in Linville, NC.

-- Dave Clawson-- Worked at a landfill in Lewiston, NY for eight summers.

-- Bill Snyder-- Taught Spanish at a high school in Missouri.


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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind.......

13) Get well soon, John Farrell. Manager of the Red Sox has Stage One lymphoma, will be away from the team for the rest of the season. Our prayers are with you.

12) 7,444 games, thats how many games the San Diego Padres played before one of their players hit for the cycle. Matt Kemp did it Friday night in Denver, leaving Miami as the only major league team that has never had a player hit for the cycle.

11) Green Bay Packers have only three players who played for another NFL team; every other NFL team has at least 16 of those guys.

10) Was looking forward to watching a replay of the Rams-Raiders game last night, but then I get the Raiders announcers, one of whom is Matt Millen, who is my least favorite football announcer. Wound up muting it and just watching.

9) Blue Jays have sold roughly 500,000 tickets since acquiring Troy Tulowitzki.

8) Golf is hard: Adam Scott got an 8 on a par-3 Friday.

7) White Sox aren't very good this year (54-59) but they're 10-3 in extra innings.

6) Carlos Gomez has been bad since joining the Astros, hasn't hit a lick; he strikes out last night and tries to snap the bat over his leg, finally doing it on his third try.

Astros' play-by-play guy asks the analyst if he ever tried to snap a bat over his leg and got this reply: "Once, when I was seven." Guess they don't like Gomez too much.

5) Eldrick Woods is playing the Greater Greensboro Open next week; he has never played in this event before. He even played in the BC Open once, before he was a big shot. When things start going downhill, it is very tough to turn things around.

4) Cincinnati Reds' last 17 games were all started by rookie pitchers; they've had 62 games started by rookie pitchers this year. Apparently, they're rebuilding.

3) Last night's starter was John Lamb, whose grandfather was the PA announcer at Dodger Stadium from 1962-82. He was also PA announcer at the LA Coliseum.

2) In Michael Jordan's first three months as a Nike employee in the early 80's, Nike sold $70M worth of Air Jordan I sneakers. $70M worth of sneakers!!!!

1) Chase Utley was 4-5 last night, is now 11 for his last 22; Phillies have to trade him- they could get a decent prospect back for him.

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MLB Contest - Pending Picks

SATURDAY, AUGUST 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Yankees - 1:07 PM ET Toronto -121 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Toronto - Under 8 500 *****

Seattle - 1:35 PM ET Boston +121 500 *****
Boston - Under 8.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

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MLB

Saturday, August 15


Mariners recall RHP Farquhar

The Seattle Mariners recalled right-hander Danny Farquhar from Triple-A Tacoma and optioned right-hander Mayckol Guaipe to the minor league team.

Farquhar, 28, has made 25 appearances in three stints with Seattle. He is 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA in 30 1/3 innings. In 22 appearances with Tacoma, he is 1-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 32 1/3 innings.

Guaipe, 25, is 0-3 with a 7.50 ERA in 12 innings with the Mariners this season.


Yankees recall RHP Cotham

The New York Yankees recalled right-hander Caleb Cotham from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on

Saturday and designated left-hander Chris Capuano for assignment.

Cotham has pitched 1 2/3 scoreless innings in the majors this year.

Capuano had been recalled earlier in the week. He is 0-4 with a 6.97 ERA through 16 appearances (four starts) with the Yankees this season.