The Bum's Sports Page For Thursday August 13th Best Bets-Trends-News !

[StarDust Bum]

RECAPPING YESTERDAY'S ACTION:

MLB: 8 - 12 - 0

WNBA: 2- 2 - 0

CFL: 0 - 0

NFL: 0 - 0


WNBA JUNE/ JULY RECORD/ AUGUST :

*****...............................16 - 18 - 2
DOUBLE PLAY....................42 - 36
TRIPLE PLAY......................18 - 14
SLAM DUNK.......................22 - 18

MLB RECORD FOR JUNE/JULY/AUGUST:

*****.............................95 - 115 - 1 .....................,........- 17.69
double play......................150 - 163 - 2 ............................- 31.38
triple play........................74 - 66 - 2 ................................ - 6.63
grand slam......................88 - 88 - 3.....................,............- 23.67
double grand slam.............7 - 9.........................................- 10.72
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CFL JUNE/JULY/ AUGUST RECORD:

SINGLE PLAY.................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAY................................7 - 13
TRIPLE PLAY..................................6 - 2
BLOW OUT.....................................3 - 2

NFL PRESEASON RECORD:

SINGLE PLAY..................................... 0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY.................................... 1 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY ..................................... 0 - 0
BLOW OUT......................................... 0 - 0

[StarDust Bum]

Betting 101: Best ways to safely handicap the NFL preseason

So you want to bet NFL preseason football, do you?

Steering bettors away from the NFL’s unpredictable exhibition schedule is like trying to convince high school kids to wait until marriage, if you know what we mean. You aren’t going to convince them otherwise so you might as well preach about safe sex - or in this case safe betting habits.

We break down the best ways to handicap the NFL preseason slate and hope you don’t lose your shirt – and pants – by the time Week 1 rolls around:

Read everything

The great thing about the NFL preseason is that books and bettors are on the same level. Coaches don’t reveal their plans until usually the day before a game, and by that time odds have been up for a while. If you catch an online presser or read a quote from a coach spilling the beans on his starters’ playing time, you can quickly get down before the lines adjust.

Research is everything for preseason capping. Find out how many snaps the first teamers will get, what the focal point of the offseason is – offense or defense – and wager accordingly. Also, keep an eye on camp injuries or how veteran players are treating the tune-up games. Some star players go through the motions in August and ones limited by injuries won't risk going all out before the real games start.

A team that is trying to establish some momentum on the ground will likely run the ball a lot – therefore keeping the clock ticking and the final score Under the total. If a team is trying to fill roster spots in the secondary and is plugging in rookies and inexperienced player in its pass defense, than perhaps look at the other team to air it out and exploit those weaknesses.

QB depth

Much the way starting pitchers make up 90 percent of baseball handicapping, quarterbacks hold a similar value when betting on the preseason. It’s the most important position on the field and can single handedly make or break your bets.

Finding a team with depth at quarterback is the key for success during the exhibition schedule. The No. 1 passer will likely only take a handful of snaps in the first two games of the preseason, turning the offense over to the backups.

Look for teams with an experienced backup under center. Many clubs have veterans and former starters on the roster, guys who won’t be freaked out by the NFL’s big stage like rookie QBs and wet-behind-the-ears free agents. These vets can keep the chains moving and often excel against an opponent’s second and third-tier defense.

New coaches and schemes

The preseason is summer school for many NFL teams transitioning their playbook, whether that be with a new head coach, coordinator or just an overall flip in the way they do things.

New head coaches aren’t necessarily a red flag. They can often feel a little pressured to win in the preseason in order to impress the front office and fan base, which can give some teams added betting value. New coordinators, on the other hand, are working in different plays and schemes, which usually come with a learning curve.

Read up on how teams are adjusting to new systems and offenses, especially if there is a dramatic shift in gears, like speeding up with no-huddle attacks or going from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4. When these teams take on established coaches, who have implemented their systems for a while, there can be value going against those new faces on the sideline.

Preseason lines

Come the regular season, the infamous 3-point spread is everywhere. And while a field-goal line is a key number in football betting, it loses some of its stature in the preseason.

Teams are more likely to go for a two-point conversion or try their luck on fourth-and-short in the preseason than play it safe. Not only do the games not matter, but a fourth down gamble or two-point attempt is an extra set for the offense as it works toward the regular season.

Depending on how those rolls of the dice play out, the final score can either be closer than three points or well over it. It’s rare to see a preseason spread of more than three points with most bouncing between 1-2.5 points.

Week to week

For those looking to bet the closest facsimile of Week 1 action during the preseason, you may want to pass on the first two weeks of exhibitions and save your marbles for Week 3. That’s when starting players tend to log the most time, working the majority of the first half and sometimes into the third quarter.

Week 1 and 2 often has first teams playing limited snaps – depending on the team’s situation – and Week 4 is pretty much a craps shoot. Coaches are making their final cuts, players are fighting to stay on the roster, and the coordinators are tightening the final nuts and bolts of their playbooks.

For those bettors who like a challenge, Week 4 of the preseason could be the trickiest week of the entire NFL schedule – preseason, regular season and playoffs – to wager on.

[StarDust Bum]

Outbound wind at Wrigley, total hits the board

According to weather forecasts, wind looks like it will be blowing out to center field at around 13 miles per hour at Wrigley Field when the Chicago Cubs host the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday afternoon.

The total for this NL Central battle has hit the board with books offshore and in Las Vegas opening with an 8.5.

Jon Lester is expected to get the start for the Cubs (-220) while Tyler Cravy is slated to start for the Brewers (+201).

[StarDust Bum]

Home teams not perfect, but still have strong showing

A day after home teams went a perfect 15-0 for the first time in baseball history and while Wednesday wasn't perfect, they kept the trend hot going 11-4.

That makes home teams 26-4 in the past two days, good for a success rate of 86.67 percent. The Phillies, Reds, Astros and Tigers were the only four road teams to notch wins yesterday.

With nine more games on tap Thursday, including four matinee affairs, make sure to check out our Scores and Matchups page to see if home teams can stay hot.

[StarDust Bum]

Over bettors sizing up Iwakuma's next start after no-hitter

Hisashi Iwakuma became the oldest pitcher to throw a no-hitter since Randy Johnson's perfect game in 2004, when the Seattle Mariners beat the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday. Iwakuma became the first pitcher to toss a no-no in the American League since teammate Felix Hernandez in 2012.

Iwakuma walked two batters in the fourth and ended the day with three in total as his only blemishes on his day.

However, going back to 1999, and excluding three collective no-no's involving more than one pitcher (Houston 2003, Seattle 2012, Philadelphia 2014), starters making their first appearance since their no-hitter are 24-17-1 Over/Under – 56 percent Over.

Chris Heston, Max Scherzer and Cole Hamels have all thrown no-hitters this season with the O/U going 1-2.

Iwakuma's next scheduled start comes Tuesday when the Mariners visit the Texas Rangers.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, AUGUST 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Colorado - 12:10 PM ET Colorado +216 500 DOUBLE PLAY
NY Mets - Over 7 500

Oakland - 12:37 PM ET Toronto -179 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Toronto - Under 8.5 500 *****

Texas - 1:10 PM ET Minnesota -140 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Minnesota - Over 9 500

Milwaukee - 2:20 PM ET Chi. Cubs -225 500 GRAND SLAM
Chi. Cubs - Under 8 500 GRAND SLAM

[StarDust Bum]

MLB EVENING PLAYS:

THURSDAY, AUGUST 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Yankees - 7:10 PM ET Cleveland +107 500 *****
Cleveland - Over 7.5 500

Pittsburgh - 7:15 PM ET St. Louis -108 500 DOUBLE PLAY
St. Louis - Under 6.5 500

LA Angels - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City +115 500 *****
Kansas City - Under 8 500

Cincinnati - 10:10 PM ET Cincinnati +160 500 *****
LA Dodgers - Over 7 500

Washington - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco +116 500 ******
San Francisco - Under 7 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

NFL PRESEASON:

THURSDAY, AUGUST 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Orleans - 7:30 PM ET New Orleans +2.5 500 *****
Baltimore - Over 38 500

Green Bay - 7:30 PM ET Green Bay +2 500 DOUBLE PLAY
New England - Under 37.5 500

N.Y. Jets - 7:30 PM ET Detroit -4 500 *****
Detroit - Under 35.5 500 *****

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Miami +0 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Chicago - Under 37 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Washington - 8:00 PM ET Washington +1 500 *****
Cleveland - Under 37.5 500

Dallas - 10:00 PM ET Dallas +4 500 *****
San Diego - Under 37 500 *****

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, AUGUST 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Edmonton - 7:30 PM ET Edmonton +0 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Montreal - Over 44.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Thursday

August 13, 2015


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Angels are 0-10 ML since Oct 03, 2012 on the road after a loss in which they had more than ten team-left-on-base.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- When Lance Lynn starts the Cardinals are 0-10 OU since July 2013 when he is coming off a start where we went no more than six innings and walked at least four batters.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Angels are 11-0 OU since May 18, 2015 on the road and it is the first game of the series.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Rockies are 0-20 since Aug 1, 2013 as a 170+ dog and vs a team that has won at least their last two games.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Reds are 0-11 ML since Jul 21, 2014 as a 140+ dog and it is the first game of the series.

[StarDust Bum]

Reds, Dodgers clash

August 13, 2015


CINCINNATI REDS (50-62) at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (64-50)

First pitch: Thursday, 10:10 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Los Angeles -190, Cincinnati +180, Total: 7

The Cincinnati Reds head north from San Diego to start a four-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night.

The season is lost for this once potent Reds group as they sit 22.5 games out of first place and have lost seven of their last 10 games. In that time, the offense has been dreadful, scoring a putrid 2.7 runs per game and were shut out on three occasions.

They had lost the first two games of this California road trip against the Padres, but found their stroke on Wednesday afternoon with a nice 7-3 victory in which they backed a solid start (6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 8 K) by Raisel Iglesias. With three hits in the game, 1B Joey Votto (.304) continued a nice season and is in the top-10 amongst NL batters in batting average, home runs, runs, walks and OPS.

The Dodgers lead the NL West despite losing four of their last four games and are just 13-11 since the All-Star break. They lost four straight contests, first being swept by the Pirates on the road and then the first against Washington, but rebounded nicely with consecutive victories in which they did not allow a run over the past two days.

Grienke and Kershaw shutdown the Nationals’ offense and they won the series in the rubber match Wednesday with the aforementioned Kershaw going eight scoreless innings in a 3-0 game. OF Andre Ethier (.286) does not play every day, but in his nine games this month leads the team with five extra-base hits and 21 total bases.

The pitching matchup for the opening game of this series will feature RHP Keyvius Sampson (1-1, 3.00 ERA) for Cincinnati and RHP Mat Latos (4-8, 4.67 ERA) of the host team. It has been a very rough season on the road for the Reds as they’ve compiled a record of 22-36 (.379) in away games as Los Angeles loves playing at home as evidenced by its 39-19 (.672) mark in front of its fans.

These two clubs have been very evenly matched over the past three seasons, splitting 14 games (7-7) with the Dodgers doing well (5-2) in their time at home during that stretch.

Trends show that L.A. is a mere 24-35 (.407) against NL Central opponents in the last two years as Cincinnati is a meager 48-68 (.414) in the second half the year in the last two seasons.

The injury report continues to have SS Zack Cozart (Knee) and C Devin Mesoraco (Hip) out for the season on the Reds’ side of the ball while 2B Howie Kendrick (Hamstring) and 3B Justin Turner (Thigh) are on the DL for Los Angeles.

Sampson came to the Reds in 2015 after a rough couple of seasons in the high minors over the course of the 2013 and 2014 campaigns. After a strong start in double-A with his new team, the righty really struggled over eight games (7 starts) at triple-A with a 5.08 ERA, as he walked 5.1 batters per nine innings of work. Still, as the team moves forward with the future, they called him up to join the rotation and he has responded quite well thus far in three games (2 starts). In those 12 innings he has a 12:4 K/BB ratio and has allowed a mere seven hits.

He has never seen any of these Dodgers hitters at this level, but will need to watch out for OF Andre Ethier who has hit .355 with two homers and five RBIs over 31 August at-bats and is hitting righties at a .297 clip with all 12 of his long balls on the year. On the other hand, OFs Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig have collectively gone 9-for-57 (.158) with 18 strikeouts in this month.

The Cincinnati bullpen has not done too well, going 15-22 with a 3.90 ERA (1.32 WHIP) and are 25-for-38 (66%) in save attempts. Aroldis Chapman (1.66 ERA, 24 saves) has just one of those blown saves and is striking out 16.3 batters per nine innings while giving up a mere single homer in 48.2 innings of work (0.18 HR/9).

Latos joined the Dodgers at the trade deadline as L.A. was attempting to bolster their rotation with a former “ace,” but have not seen any positive returns just yet. Before coming to the team, he had pitched to a 4.48 ERA in a pitcher’s park out in Miami, and while he was striking out batters at a clip (8.1 K/9) better than any year since 2011, he was struggling with leaving only 65.1% of runners on base.

In his first outing for the Dodgers, Latos was solid with a mere run allowed on four hits over six innings, but struck just one batter out, and then was hit hard (6 ER, 7 H) in four innings against the Pirates; failing to record a strikeout in the process. He’s had the opportunity of facing the Reds, his former team, three times and is 1-1 (1-2 team record) with a 2.70 ERA (0.65 WHIP) but has not seen them since being a member of the Padres in 2011. Latos hasn’t seen much of the Cincinnati batters, but has had trouble with OF Marlon Byrd (3-for-9, 3 BB) in limited at-bats as 1B Joey Votto and 2B Brandon Phillips are a combined 2-for-14 (.143) in the matchup.

Overall the Los Angeles relievers have not been too impressive, going 23-21 with a 4.11 ERA (1.31 WHIP) and have successfully been able to save 30-of-47 (64%) games. Kenley Jansen (2.67 ERA, 22 saves) is striking out a career-high 16.3 batters per nine, but has already allowed five of his 19 hits to leave the park (1.48 HR/9) in his 30.1 frames.