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MLB

Wednesday, August 5


Cueto stronger when the sun goes down this season

Johnny Cueto has been pitching ever been this season when he gets a full day to prepare. In 11 night games this season, Cueto has posted a 2.44 ERA while batters are hitting a mere .184.

Cueto allowed seven hits and three earned runs over seven innings in his first start with the Kansas City Royals.

The Royals are currently -160 when they visit the Detroit Tigers Wednesday.


Yankees top prospect Severino a huge favorite in debut

The New York Yankees top pitching prospect Luis Severino is facing a bit of pressure as he makes his major league debut at Yankee Stadium Wednesday night.

Talk about hitting the ground running. Not only does he have to go up against the Bronx Bombers biggest rivals in the Boston Red Sox, (despite how poorly they've played), but he is going in as a huge -193 favorite according to some books.

Severino has been fantastic at AAA Scranton this season, going 7-0 in 11 starts, pitching to a 1.91 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, with 50 strikeouts to 17 walks.

He goes up against Boston's Steven Wright, who is 4-4 in seven starts, with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP.

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Wednesday's Tip Sheet

August 5, 2015


Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees | 7:05 p.m. ET (ESPN)

What a shock! Another nationally televised game on ESPN features the New York Yankees, as this week’s Wednesday Night Baseball affair highlights arguably the biggest rivalry in all of professional sports. It goes a bit beyond that, though, in this particular contest, as the Yankees will see the Major League debut of their No. 1 prospect, according to MLB.com, right-hander Luis Severino (NR), who has been as good as advertised at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, posting a 1.91 ERA in 11 starts. He also recorded a 50/17 K/BB ratio in 61 1/3 innings. Interestingly, at 21 years and 166 days-old, Severino will become the youngest pitcher to make a start in the big leagues this season.

He won’t be the only rookie pitching at Yankee Stadium tonight as the Red Sox will trot out a freshman of their own, that being knuckleballer Steven Wright (4-4, 4.53 ERA). Someone might want to ask Elias Sports Bureau when the last time Boston used exclusively rookie pitchers for the entirety of a three-game set, let alone involving the arch rival Yankees, as that’s exactly the case in this series. Henry Owens made his debut last night for the Red Sox, and after Wright makes his assignment tonight, the club will lean on yet another rookie, Eduardo Rodriguez, in tomorrow’s finale. In any event, Wright enters tonight’s start with a lot of momentum, coming off his best performance of the year when he outdueled Chris Sale and held the White Sox to just two runs over a season-high seven innings, while striking out eight. Due to the hype surrounding Severino, though, the Yankees are the heavy favorites here, carrying -190 chalk in most places.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7:05 p.m. ET

One trade deadline acquisition starting pitcher made his team debut in this series, that being J.A. Happ, who made his first start as a member of the Pirates last night, but did not experience the best results. The Cubs will hope for a different type of performance when their haul from the Marlins, Dan Haren (7-7, 3.42 ERA), makes his first start with the club in game two of this series. It’s been a wild journey for the 34-year-old right-hander, who almost retired prior to Opening Day after not being dealt to a west coast team at his request. Well, at least he finds himself significantly closer there after going from Miami to Chicago, and he’ll be thrust right into a heated playoff race as well. The Cubs are getting ahold of Haren’s services seemingly at the perfect time, as he’s been in a nice groove as of late. The veteran starter has registered a quality start in four of his past five outings, and has impressively pitched into the sixth inning or beyond in his last 14 consecutive starts. Despite this, the Cubs are interestingly a +115 road ’dog this evening.

The Pirates were getting similar consistency from their starter tonight, Jeff Locke (6-6, 4.21 ERA), who recently had a run where he yielded three runs or less in seven straight outings. In his past two assignments, though, the southpaw has been tagged for seven combined runs, spanning only ten innings. Thus, it’s interesting that he’s the favorite in tonight’s contest. It’s even more suspect when you consider this: Of any team Locke has faced two or more times this season, the 27-year-old has registered his worst numbers against the Cubs, having a 10.22 ERA and 2.43 WHIP (!) in three starts facing them. Not only that, Chicago has managed to hit .382 as a team when Locke is the opposing pitcher. At the same time, Locke has been much better in his home starts (2.90 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) in 2015 compared to on the road (6.43 ERA, 1.69 WHIP). The over/under is currently listed at 7.5.

San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves | 7:10 p.m. ET

A couple of weeks ago, Atlanta Braves star first baseman Freddie Freeman made his return from a lengthy stint on the disabled list, one that cost him 30 games due to a wrist injury. Unfortunately, the face of the Atlanta franchise just went back on the DL yesterday, this time with an oblique issue, and if the last time is any indication, the Braves offense could be in for some major struggles. That could mean an opportune start for Giants ace Madison Bumgarner (11-6, 3.39 ERA) tonight, as his team will be going for the series victory in this rubber matchup to conclude a three-game set. Bumgarner might actually be salivating at his assignment this evening, considering he’s coming off a start in which he allowed a season-high-tying six runs in Texas. Overall, though, he’s still been good, as he’s actually racked up seven or more strikeouts in eight out of his past ten starts, while logging seven innings or more in seven of those instances. The linesmakers have him as a -175 favorite, with that number increasing in some shops.

The Braves, meanwhile, will counter with Williams Perez (4-1, 4.14 ERA), who is also coming off a recent DL stint that cost him over a month. The 24-year-old rookie was enjoying a very nice first season in the bigs prior to his injury, maintaining a desirable 2.88 ERA and was even undefeated in nine starts. Then came his return, and the Phillies greeted him unpleasantly by socking the right-hander for nine runs on nine hits in just over four innings of work. As a result, Perez’ ERA jumped up more than a full run, en route to suffering his first loss of the campaign. If there’s one thing going in his favor tonight, though, it’s that Perez had his most impressive outing of the year against these same Giants, when he shut them out over seven innings at the end of May at AT&T Park. As a result, the over/under is currently 7 for this encounter.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers | 8:05 p.m. ET

In the finale of the latest Lone Star Series, the first-place Astros will be trying to dodge a three-game sweep at the hands of the Rangers in Arlington this evening at Globe Life Park. Fortunately for them, they have the hottest American League pitcher on the mound in this assignment to lead them towards accomplishing that goal. Of course, that would be referring to the recently-acquired Scott Kazmir (6-5, 2.10 ERA), who has been everything the club has hoped for thus far through his first two outings with his hometown team. In fact, he’s yet to surrender a run in an Astros uniform, carrying a scoreless streak of 14 2/3 innings entering tonight’s start. Furthermore, he’s coming off an unbelievable July that saw him win AL Pitcher of the Month honors… after registering an insane 0.26 ERA in the month -- the third-lowest July ERA in Major League history. Thus, it’s no wonder the left-hander is laying -155 chalk as a road favorite.

Tasked with delivering a sweep for the Rangers will be birthday boy Nick Martinez (6-6, 4.01 ERA), who turns 25-years-old today. Martinez was actually experiencing similar success compared to Kazmir earlier in the year, as he carried a miniscule 2.03 ERA through the season’s first two months. After a regression, Martinez was actually sent down right around the All-Star break, and while his ERA is now north of four, with a 1.42 WHIP on the year, the right-hander appears to be heading back in the right direction after a solid six-inning, two-run performance his last time out against the defending world champion San Francisco Giants. That performance also snapped a six-game losing streak by the Rangers in games started by Martinez, so perhaps he’s re-entering his groove from the beginning of the campaign. Bettors will want to think about that, plus Kazmir’s mastery over the past month-and-change, when evaluating the over/under for this one, which currently sits at 9.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

August 5, 2015


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Athletics are 0-14 since Jul 09, 2014 and after a 5+ run win and after a home game.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- When Johnny Cueto starts teams are 8-0 when he is a road favorite of at least -144 and the total is over 7.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Cubs are 0-11-2 ou since Jun 18, 2015 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Mets are 13-0 since Sep 28, 2014 as a favorite after a win in which their opponent scored first.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Pirates are 12-0 since Apr 17, 2015 after a home game in which they struck out their opponent at least ten times.

[StarDust Bum]

At the Gate - Wednesday

August 4, 2015

The Pick 6 at Saratoga was not hit on Sunday or Monday, leaving us a carryover of $206,133 going into Wednesday’s 10-race card. The Pick 6 starts with the fifth race with a post time of 3:12 ET.

A couple of bombs back to back on Monday, Goodtolook ($70.50) and Den’s Legacy ($45.20) assured that there would be a nice sized pot moving forward.

The sequence is anything but easy, starting with a $40,000 non-winners of two on turf that drew a full field of 12. Eighty Three is the 5-2 morning line favorite for trainer Wesley Ward, who is off to a slow start at the meet at 1 for 21.

The sixth race is a $50,000 claimer at a mile on turf with 10 going to the post. The Mike Maker trained Honor the Kitten is the 7-2 morning line favorite. The five-year-old drops out of stakes company. Maker had a solid meeting here last summer but is just 2 for 18 here through Monday.

The seventh race is a maiden special weight affair with a field of 10 fillies and mares going six furlongs on the main track. It is another race that we may have to go deep in. There are first timers sent out by Chad Brown, Maker and Kiaran McLaughlin.

The second half of the Pick 6 sequence is an optional claimer on turf with nine going to the post. Christophe Clement sends out Crisolles to her U.S. debut and first start since last October.

The ninth race is the feature, the $100,00 Shine Again which includes a pair of runners that participated in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup.

Stonetastic ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) while Unbridled Forever makes her first start since running fifth in the Distaff (G1).

If we are alive going into the final leg we will have to solve a $16,000 non-winners of two claimer with a field of 12. David Jacobson sends out Who’s Z Daddy (3-1) who ran close up fourth at this level here on July 24.

The pool could grow to a $1 million or more, but it is a very tough sequence.

Here is today’s second race (the opener is a jump race) from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 2 Clm $12,500 (1:33 ET)

5 Petrocelli 10-1
1 Bambisfrostyracer / 1a Wealth to Me 6-5
4 Playing Joke 6-1
8 Grandpa Len 6-1

Analysis: Petrocelli dueled for the early lead and finished gamely in a runner up finish last out against $16,000 foes. He drops a notch here as he makes his first start for the DiPrima barn that is showing a 1 for 13 mark first off the claim. The barn is capable and took this guy off a low % outfit. Rosario takes the call and the 10-1 morning line looks generous. He has some early zip but will have to outrun his sprint oriented pedigree to get nine furlongs.

Wealth to Me takes a big plunge here after taking on Alw-3 optional claimers last out where he checked in a decent third. The barn is not afraid to jam them in where they can win but the prices are often too short. The barn is off to a slow start at the meeting, winning with just 2 of 24 starters.

Wagering

WIN: #5 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,4,5,8
TRI: 1,5 / 1,4,5,8 / 1,3,4,5,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 9 The Shine Again (5:26 ET)

3 Stonetastic 5-2
9 You Bought Her 8-1
6 Wavell Avenue 4-1
5 Unbridled Forever 5-1

Analysis: Stonetastic makes her first start since fading to finish seventh in the La Brea (G1) at Santa Anita last December. The filly won two of six starts last year and her career best effort came over the Spa main track here last summer where she won the Prioress (G2) in gate to wire fashion, drawing away to win by 8 1/2 lengths. Four fillies she beat that day came back to win their next starts. She has run well fresh, beating Alw-1 optional claimers last July off a 6 1/2 month layoff. The Breen barn is 12% winners with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff. She popped three bullet works last month and looks ready to go off the bench.

You Bought Her came with a five wide bid and finished up well for the runner up spot last out at Prairie Meadows in a runner up finish in the Saylorville. The mare did not enjoy her time in Louisville, not a threat in a seventh place finish in the Humana Distaff (G1) and a sixth in the Winning Colors (G3). Her two previous starts to that were solid, a win in the Minaret at Tampa Bay Downs and a neck loss in the Inside Information (G2) at Gulfstream Park. Only our fourth choice in here earned a higher last out speed fig and her 8-1 morning line looks more than fair.

Wavell Avenue is back on dirt after a rough trip at Woodbine in the Canadian bred Zadradcarta over yielding turf. The filly was off a slow and outrun in the early going, was blocked in traffic turning for home and finished up with some interest when clear for third. She was a sharp winner two back at Belmont Park on the main track against Alw-2 optional claimers, winning by six lengths. The Chad Brown barn is 22% winners moving runners from turf to dirt.

Wagering

WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 3,5,6,9
TRI: 3,9 / 3,5,6,9 / 2,3,5,6,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga

R2: #5 Petrocelli 10-1
R3: #1 Got Winged 10-1
R4: #2 Super Psyche 8-1
R5: #6 One Eyed Ray 10-1
R6: #11 Upgrade 8-1
R7: #3 Vacation Spot 12-1
R8: #2 Cash Control 15-1
R9: #9 You Bought Her 8-1
R10: #7 David Rocks 8-1

Good luck today!

[StarDust Bum]

RECAPPING YESTERDAY'S ACTION:

MLB: 9 - 3 DOUBLE GRAND SLAM GOES 3 - 0 ALSO THE TRIPLE PLAYS 3 - 0

WNBA : 3 - 5

WNBA: 0 - 0 - 0


WNBA JUNE/ JULY RECORD/ AUGUST :

*****...............................13 - 14 - 2
DOUBLE PLAY....................32 - 29
TRIPLE PLAY......................14 - 11
SLAM DUNK.......................19 - 14

MLB RECORD FOR JUNE/JULY/AUGUST:

*****.............................81 - 101 - 1 .....................,........- 15.70
double play......................134 - 146 - 2 ..........................- 26.62
triple play........................61 - 53 - 1 .............................. - 6.33
grand slam......................81 - 82 - 3................................- 25.54
double grand slam.............3 - 2........................................+ 16.08
.
CFL JUNE/JULY/ AUGUST RECORD:

SINGLE PLAY.................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAY................................7 - 9
TRIPLE PLAY..................................3 - 1
BLOW OUT.....................................3 - 2

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Antonio - 7:00 PM ET San Antonio +9.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Washington - Under 148.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Contest - Pending Picks

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:05 PM ET NY Yankees -190 500 *****
NY Yankees - Under 9 500

Arizona - 7:05 PM ET Arizona +125 500 *****
Washington - Over 7.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs +131 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Pittsburgh - Over 7.5 500

LA Dodgers - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia +155 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Philadelphia - Over 7.5 500

Minnesota - 7:07 PM ET Toronto -183 500
Toronto - Under 8.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Kansas City - 7:08 PM ET Kansas City -165 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Detroit - Under 7.5 500

San Francisco - 7:10 PM ET San Francisco -187 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Atlanta - Over 7 500 GRAND SLAM

St. Louis - 7:10 PM ET St. Louis -155 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Cincinnati - Over 7.5 500

NY Mets - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -160 500 GRAND SLAM
Miami - Under 7 500

Houston - 8:05 PM ET Houston -163 500 DOUBLE GRAND SLAM
Texas - Under 9 500

San Diego - 8:10 PM ET San Diego +114 500
Milwaukee - Under 7.5 500