At the Gate - Sunday
August 2, 2015
American Pharoah looks ready to go as he makes his first start since winning the Triple Crown as the heavy favorite in Sunday’s $1.75 million Haskell Invitational (G1) at Monmouth Park.
The colt is 1-5 on the morning line and the bridejumpers likely will be out in full force, as the show pool likely will see some serious action.
I am not accustomed to picking heavy favorites on top, but of the seven foes taking him on this afternoon I cannot find one that has a legitimate shot of pulling off the upset.
American Pharoah has put in six works since his score in the Belmont Stakes (G1) on June 6, and by all accounts, his Triple Crown run does not appear to have taken much out of him. In his five wins this year, his only tough race was the Kentucky Derby (G1) where he won by a length.
He won the Rebel (G2), Arkansas Derby (G1), Preakness (G1) and Belmont by a combined 26 ¾ lengths.
Add to that the fact that Bob Baffert has owned the Haskell, and it makes it tough to try and beat the favorite. Baffert has won the Haskell a record seven times and has won it in four of the past five years including last summer with Bayern.
If the colt does not get tested today, it seems possible he could return in four weeks for the Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. The New York Racing Association has upped the ante, increasing the Travers purse to $1.6 million if the Triple Crown winner shows up for the marquee event of the summer meeting.
The Haskell will be televised live this afternoon at 5:00 ET on NBC and is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge ‘Win and You’re In” race for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
Overshadowed by the Haskell is today’s $200,000 Shuvee Handicap (G3) which features a great match up between Untapable and Stopchargingmaria.
Untapable won six of her seven races last year including taking the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). She has won just one of her three starts this year and comes into the race off a runner up finish in the Ogden Phipps (G1).
Stopchargingmaria loves the Spa main track, winning the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and Alabama (G1) last year. The Todd Pletcher trainee is coming off a sharp win in the DuPont Distaff (G3) at Pimlico in her last outing.
Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:00 ET)
6 Too Discreet 3-1
8 Brooklyn Speights 8-1
10 Leavemeatthegate 6-1
1 Heated Verdict 4-1
Analysis:
Too Discreet makes his debut for the Clement barn that hits at a 11% clip with first time starters. The colt is by Discreet Cat out of the stakes winner To Marquet ($198,236) who has dropped three turf winners and a pair of takes winners, top earner Discreet Marq ($1.2 million).
Brooklyn Speights makes her debut for the Ward barn that is 20% winners with first timers. The gelding has a solid enough turf pedigree, by Big Brown out of a Speightstown mare who has dropped one other foal to race, not a winner yet.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 1,6,8,10
TRI: 6,8 / 1,6,8,10 1,6,7,8,10
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 10 The Shuvee Handicap G3 (6:07 ET)
5 Stopchargingmaria 2-1
4 Untapable 7-5
3 House Rules 5-1
6 Tiz Windy 8-1
Analysis:
Stopchargingmaria was off a beat slow when bobbling coming out of the gate and came with a good late run to win the DuPont Distaff (G3) at Pimlico. That snapped a two race losing streak and she is back on her favorite surface. Last year here she won the CCA Oaks (G1) and Alabama (G1) over the main track and has won three of four with a second in her career here. She owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and may have the tactical advantage over our second choice in here.
Untapable was nearly unstoppable last year winning six of seven starts, but she has lost two of three this year and was no match for Wedding Toast last out in the Ogden Phipps (G1), beaten five lengths. The extra ground here will suit her as she won the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) at today's distance last fall at Santa Anita. She gets hammered at the betting windows every time out and will be more of the same here.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 3,4,5
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:
MTH Race 11 The Oceanport G3 (5:05 ET)
7 Kharafa 5-2
5 Heart to Heart 2-1
6 Lochte 3-1
3 Old Time Hockey 3-1
Analysis:
Kharafa made a good late rally to get up late and win the Elkwood here last out going a mile. The gelding has now landed in the money in 22 of his 26 starts on grass in his career. He comes in here sharp with three wins in his last four starts.
Heart to Heart did not fire his best last out in the Poker (G3) where he checked in seventh behind repeat winner King Kreesa, who won the Forbidden Apple in his next outing on July 11. Two back off the bench he ran a solid second in the Red Bank (G3) here, beaten just a half-length for the top spot. He figures to bounce back with a better effort here.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 3,5,6,7
TRI: 5,7 / 3,5,6,7 / 2,3,5,6,7
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R1: #8 Brooklyn Speights 8-1
R3: #4 Runway Ready 8-1
R4: #4 Achnaha 8-1
R5: #3 towering Moon 10-1
R7: #4 Elusive Talmo 15-1
R8: #5 H Man 10-1
R9: #5 Frazil 10-1
R10: #6 Tiz Windy 8-1
R11: #6 Elusive Strike 8-1
Good luck today!
August 2, 2015
American Pharoah looks ready to go as he makes his first start since winning the Triple Crown as the heavy favorite in Sunday’s $1.75 million Haskell Invitational (G1) at Monmouth Park.
The colt is 1-5 on the morning line and the bridejumpers likely will be out in full force, as the show pool likely will see some serious action.
I am not accustomed to picking heavy favorites on top, but of the seven foes taking him on this afternoon I cannot find one that has a legitimate shot of pulling off the upset.
American Pharoah has put in six works since his score in the Belmont Stakes (G1) on June 6, and by all accounts, his Triple Crown run does not appear to have taken much out of him. In his five wins this year, his only tough race was the Kentucky Derby (G1) where he won by a length.
He won the Rebel (G2), Arkansas Derby (G1), Preakness (G1) and Belmont by a combined 26 ¾ lengths.
Add to that the fact that Bob Baffert has owned the Haskell, and it makes it tough to try and beat the favorite. Baffert has won the Haskell a record seven times and has won it in four of the past five years including last summer with Bayern.
If the colt does not get tested today, it seems possible he could return in four weeks for the Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. The New York Racing Association has upped the ante, increasing the Travers purse to $1.6 million if the Triple Crown winner shows up for the marquee event of the summer meeting.
The Haskell will be televised live this afternoon at 5:00 ET on NBC and is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge ‘Win and You’re In” race for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
Overshadowed by the Haskell is today’s $200,000 Shuvee Handicap (G3) which features a great match up between Untapable and Stopchargingmaria.
Untapable won six of her seven races last year including taking the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). She has won just one of her three starts this year and comes into the race off a runner up finish in the Ogden Phipps (G1).
Stopchargingmaria loves the Spa main track, winning the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and Alabama (G1) last year. The Todd Pletcher trainee is coming off a sharp win in the DuPont Distaff (G3) at Pimlico in her last outing.
Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:00 ET)
6 Too Discreet 3-1
8 Brooklyn Speights 8-1
10 Leavemeatthegate 6-1
1 Heated Verdict 4-1
Analysis:
Too Discreet makes his debut for the Clement barn that hits at a 11% clip with first time starters. The colt is by Discreet Cat out of the stakes winner To Marquet ($198,236) who has dropped three turf winners and a pair of takes winners, top earner Discreet Marq ($1.2 million).
Brooklyn Speights makes her debut for the Ward barn that is 20% winners with first timers. The gelding has a solid enough turf pedigree, by Big Brown out of a Speightstown mare who has dropped one other foal to race, not a winner yet.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 1,6,8,10
TRI: 6,8 / 1,6,8,10 1,6,7,8,10
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 10 The Shuvee Handicap G3 (6:07 ET)
5 Stopchargingmaria 2-1
4 Untapable 7-5
3 House Rules 5-1
6 Tiz Windy 8-1
Analysis:
Stopchargingmaria was off a beat slow when bobbling coming out of the gate and came with a good late run to win the DuPont Distaff (G3) at Pimlico. That snapped a two race losing streak and she is back on her favorite surface. Last year here she won the CCA Oaks (G1) and Alabama (G1) over the main track and has won three of four with a second in her career here. She owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and may have the tactical advantage over our second choice in here.
Untapable was nearly unstoppable last year winning six of seven starts, but she has lost two of three this year and was no match for Wedding Toast last out in the Ogden Phipps (G1), beaten five lengths. The extra ground here will suit her as she won the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) at today's distance last fall at Santa Anita. She gets hammered at the betting windows every time out and will be more of the same here.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 3,4,5
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:
MTH Race 11 The Oceanport G3 (5:05 ET)
7 Kharafa 5-2
5 Heart to Heart 2-1
6 Lochte 3-1
3 Old Time Hockey 3-1
Analysis:
Kharafa made a good late rally to get up late and win the Elkwood here last out going a mile. The gelding has now landed in the money in 22 of his 26 starts on grass in his career. He comes in here sharp with three wins in his last four starts.
Heart to Heart did not fire his best last out in the Poker (G3) where he checked in seventh behind repeat winner King Kreesa, who won the Forbidden Apple in his next outing on July 11. Two back off the bench he ran a solid second in the Red Bank (G3) here, beaten just a half-length for the top spot. He figures to bounce back with a better effort here.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 3,5,6,7
TRI: 5,7 / 3,5,6,7 / 2,3,5,6,7
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R1: #8 Brooklyn Speights 8-1
R3: #4 Runway Ready 8-1
R4: #4 Achnaha 8-1
R5: #3 towering Moon 10-1
R7: #4 Elusive Talmo 15-1
R8: #5 H Man 10-1
R9: #5 Frazil 10-1
R10: #6 Tiz Windy 8-1
R11: #6 Elusive Strike 8-1
Good luck today!
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