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Why baseball bettors should pay attention to heat and humidity
Jul 28, 2015
Pitching matchups, home field advantage, current form. These are the types of angles that even the most novice of baseball bettors consider before walking to the window to plunk down a chunk of cash with the hopes of a profitable return.
However, as the gambler’s level of sophistication increases, so too does his or her attention to detail when it comes to handicapping the matchup in question. Ballpark factors are integral in evaluating totals, while lefty/righty splits, line movements and situational analysis serve as important tools in gaining an edge when working to identify a potential winning wager.
You’ll sometimes encounter the phrase, “Paralysis by over analysis,” which simply implies that one can suffer adverse consequences from too much research. But one important key for all bettors, no matter the sport, should be to invest as much time in studying the game as much as possible, as long as that time is dedicated to sifting through the information that truly matters. The color of the road team’s jerseys means nothing.
Additionally, a piece of information such as, “The Chicago Bears are 0-7 ATS on Monday night football over the last 20 years,” could, on its face, appear to serve as a valuable slice of intel…right up until you realize that the Bears haven’t played on Monday night in 15 years. What does Chicago’s roster from 2002 have to do with Chicago’s roster in 2015?
That’s preciously where we come into play.
Today’s lesson/science experiment (gasp!) focuses on the influence weather, specifically heat and humidity, has on a baseball. We all know that centerfield gusts at Wrigley Field will lead to a longer ball flight, just as the higher elevation in Denver will also aid in carrying a baseball further through the air.
But what about heat and humidity and how these two weather factors affect a ball’s flight and trajectory?
The answer is relatively simple to regurgitate from any seventh grade science book: As air warms, it expands, which in turn lowers the air’s density while paving the way for a baseball to travel longer distances. The same can be said as it relates to humidity, as air with a higher dew point is less dense, meaning baseballs will travel further in higher humidity if all other factors are considered equal.
Simply put, the higher the temperature and/or humidity, the farther a baseball will travel. The good news here is that you don’t need to invest in meteorology lessons in order to improve your skills as a baseball bettor, as websites like Weather.com, AccuWeather.com and Baseball-Weather.com, among others, have all the information you need at just the few clicks of a mouse.
As we transition from rudimentary science back to gambling (hoorah!), the first element to consider is the fact that of the 30 ballparks that comprise Major League Baseball locales, one (Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida) is a fixed roof dome stadium while six others (Chase Field in Phoenix, Marlins Park in Miami, Miller Park in Milwaukee, Minute Maid Park in Houston, Rogers Centre in Toronto and Safeco Field in Seattle) feature retractable roofs. That means when the temperatures and humidity get too high in any of these seven cities, the likelihood is great that the game will be played indoors and away from the elements, which leaves us with 23 stadiums left to evaluate.
The next item on our checklist is to create an adequate sample size, but one that attempts to eliminate the “Steroid era” in Major League Baseball, as run production was at an all-time high during this period of time, which was vastly different than what we watch on television today. So with that in mind, we’ll use 2010 through the end of last week as our sample size.
Using the above parameters, here’s what we discovered:
WHEN TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 95-99 DEGREES
Home teams: 86-63 (.577)
Total runs scored per game: 9.9
WHEN TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 100-104 DEGREES
Home teams: 36-23 (.610)
Total runs scored per game: 10.2
WHEN TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 105 DEGREES AND UP
Home teams: 5-3 (.625)
Total runs scored per game: 11.5
A cursory first glance at this data would likely indicate that home teams tend to fair better and produce more profitable results when playing in hotter weather. However, when you factor in the juice that is associated with most of these home favorites, the profit margins quickly decrease. So employing the simple strategy of backing home teams in hot weather is not something that we would advise.
However, it is absolutely worth noting the total number of runs produced in games with hotter temperatures. Compare what you see above to the average number of runs scored per game during this time frame:
2010: 8.76 runs/game
2011: 8.56 runs/game
2012: 8.65 runs/game
2013: 8.33 runs/game
2014: 8.13 runs/game
Combine those five years and you get an average of just 8.48 runs per game, which is a full three runs shy of the average runs scored in games with temperatures of 105 degrees or higher during the same time span. Additionally, you’ll note that games in the range of 95-99 degrees produce an average of 1.5 more runs per game while matchups in the range of 100-104 degrees produce an average of 1.74 more runs per outing.
As Stephen Hawking once famously said, “Science is not only a disciple of reason, but also one of romance and passion.”
In this instance it appears as if we are able to take our romance and passion surrounding baseball wagering and, combined with a science lesson in weather, determine yet another significant angle to consider when attempting to defeat the sports books.
Jul 28, 2015
Pitching matchups, home field advantage, current form. These are the types of angles that even the most novice of baseball bettors consider before walking to the window to plunk down a chunk of cash with the hopes of a profitable return.
However, as the gambler’s level of sophistication increases, so too does his or her attention to detail when it comes to handicapping the matchup in question. Ballpark factors are integral in evaluating totals, while lefty/righty splits, line movements and situational analysis serve as important tools in gaining an edge when working to identify a potential winning wager.
You’ll sometimes encounter the phrase, “Paralysis by over analysis,” which simply implies that one can suffer adverse consequences from too much research. But one important key for all bettors, no matter the sport, should be to invest as much time in studying the game as much as possible, as long as that time is dedicated to sifting through the information that truly matters. The color of the road team’s jerseys means nothing.
Additionally, a piece of information such as, “The Chicago Bears are 0-7 ATS on Monday night football over the last 20 years,” could, on its face, appear to serve as a valuable slice of intel…right up until you realize that the Bears haven’t played on Monday night in 15 years. What does Chicago’s roster from 2002 have to do with Chicago’s roster in 2015?
That’s preciously where we come into play.
Today’s lesson/science experiment (gasp!) focuses on the influence weather, specifically heat and humidity, has on a baseball. We all know that centerfield gusts at Wrigley Field will lead to a longer ball flight, just as the higher elevation in Denver will also aid in carrying a baseball further through the air.
But what about heat and humidity and how these two weather factors affect a ball’s flight and trajectory?
The answer is relatively simple to regurgitate from any seventh grade science book: As air warms, it expands, which in turn lowers the air’s density while paving the way for a baseball to travel longer distances. The same can be said as it relates to humidity, as air with a higher dew point is less dense, meaning baseballs will travel further in higher humidity if all other factors are considered equal.
Simply put, the higher the temperature and/or humidity, the farther a baseball will travel. The good news here is that you don’t need to invest in meteorology lessons in order to improve your skills as a baseball bettor, as websites like Weather.com, AccuWeather.com and Baseball-Weather.com, among others, have all the information you need at just the few clicks of a mouse.
As we transition from rudimentary science back to gambling (hoorah!), the first element to consider is the fact that of the 30 ballparks that comprise Major League Baseball locales, one (Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida) is a fixed roof dome stadium while six others (Chase Field in Phoenix, Marlins Park in Miami, Miller Park in Milwaukee, Minute Maid Park in Houston, Rogers Centre in Toronto and Safeco Field in Seattle) feature retractable roofs. That means when the temperatures and humidity get too high in any of these seven cities, the likelihood is great that the game will be played indoors and away from the elements, which leaves us with 23 stadiums left to evaluate.
The next item on our checklist is to create an adequate sample size, but one that attempts to eliminate the “Steroid era” in Major League Baseball, as run production was at an all-time high during this period of time, which was vastly different than what we watch on television today. So with that in mind, we’ll use 2010 through the end of last week as our sample size.
Using the above parameters, here’s what we discovered:
WHEN TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 95-99 DEGREES
Home teams: 86-63 (.577)
Total runs scored per game: 9.9
WHEN TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 100-104 DEGREES
Home teams: 36-23 (.610)
Total runs scored per game: 10.2
WHEN TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 105 DEGREES AND UP
Home teams: 5-3 (.625)
Total runs scored per game: 11.5
A cursory first glance at this data would likely indicate that home teams tend to fair better and produce more profitable results when playing in hotter weather. However, when you factor in the juice that is associated with most of these home favorites, the profit margins quickly decrease. So employing the simple strategy of backing home teams in hot weather is not something that we would advise.
However, it is absolutely worth noting the total number of runs produced in games with hotter temperatures. Compare what you see above to the average number of runs scored per game during this time frame:
2010: 8.76 runs/game
2011: 8.56 runs/game
2012: 8.65 runs/game
2013: 8.33 runs/game
2014: 8.13 runs/game
Combine those five years and you get an average of just 8.48 runs per game, which is a full three runs shy of the average runs scored in games with temperatures of 105 degrees or higher during the same time span. Additionally, you’ll note that games in the range of 95-99 degrees produce an average of 1.5 more runs per game while matchups in the range of 100-104 degrees produce an average of 1.74 more runs per outing.
As Stephen Hawking once famously said, “Science is not only a disciple of reason, but also one of romance and passion.”
In this instance it appears as if we are able to take our romance and passion surrounding baseball wagering and, combined with a science lesson in weather, determine yet another significant angle to consider when attempting to defeat the sports books.
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