Rhody Joe's West Bay Sports Desk Daily Selections

[rhodyjoe]

August 20th
MLB
Pitching Option: Listed

BALTIMORE to Win Even(-168)
MINNESOTA (T DUFFEY) vs BALTIMORE (MI GONZALEZ)

RL-CHICAGO CUBS to Win -1.5(-115)
RL-ATLANTA (M FOLTYNEWCZ) vs RL-CHICAGO CUBS (J ARRIETA)

PITTSBURGH to Win Even(-136)
SAN FRANCISCO (J PEAVY) vs PITTSBURGH (C MORTON)

I will be back by 5:00 P.M. for at least one more selection.


At This Forum
75-70-6 = .517

[rhodyjoe]

August 20th
MLB
Pitching Option: Listed

WASHINGTON 0 (-190)
WASHINGTON (M SCHERZER) vs COLORADO (Y FLANDE)

At This Forum
75-70-6 = .517

[rhodyjoe]

August 20th Results
MLB
Pitching Option: Listed

WASHINGTON 0 (-190) Loss 2-3
WASHINGTON (M SCHERZER) vs COLORADO (Y FLANDE)

BALTIMORE to Win Even(-168) Loss 2-15
MINNESOTA (T DUFFEY) vs BALTIMORE (MI GONZALEZ)

RL-CHICAGO CUBS to Win -1.5(-115) Won 7-1
RL-ATLANTA (M FOLTYNEWCZ) vs RL-CHICAGO CUBS (J ARRIETA)

PITTSBURGH to Win Even(-136) Won 4-0
SAN FRANCISCO (J PEAVY) vs PITTSBURGH (C MORTON)

At This Forum
77-72-6 = .516

[rhodyjoe]

August 21st
MLB
Pitching Option: Listed

CHICAGO CUBS to Win Even(-190)
ATLANTA (S MILLER) vs CHICAGO CUBS (K HENDRICKS)

For Friday’s game the Cubs start Kyle Hendricks who has allowed 129 hits and 58 earned runs while striking out 111 over 131.1 innings for a 6-5 record and a 3.97 ERA.
The Braves start Shelby Miller who has allowed 124 hits and 41 earned runs while striking out 128 over 152 innings for a 5-9 record and a 2.43 ERA.
Chicago is 9-2 in their last 11 home games, 17-5 in their last 22 games, and 4-0 in Hendricks’ last four starts. Atlanta is 16-43 in their last 59 road games, 1-5 as an underdog, and 0-4 in Miller’s last four road starts.

77-72-6 = .516

[rhodyjoe]

August 21st Results
MLB
Pitching Option: Listed

CHICAGO CUBS to Win Even(-190) Won 5-3
ATLANTA (S MILLER) vs CHICAGO CUBS (K HENDRICKS)

At This Forum
78-73-6 = .516



(See you on Sunday)

[rhodyjoe]

August 23rd
MLB
Pitching Option: Listed

Point Total Under 6.5(105)
LA DODGERS (C KERSHAW) vs HOUSTON (L MCCULLERS)

At This Forum
78-73-6 = .516

[rhodyjoe]

August 23rd
MLB
Pitching Option: listed

Point Total Over 11.5 (-110)
NY METS (L VERRETT) vs COLORADO (D HALE)

At This Forum
78-73-6 = .516

[rhodyjoe]

August 23rd Results
MLB
Pitching Option: listed

Point Total Under 6.5(105) Won 5
LA DODGERS (C KERSHAW) vs HOUSTON (L MCCULLERS)

Point Total Over 11.5 (-110) Loss 6
NY METS (L VERRETT) vs COLORADO (D HALE)

At This Forum
79-74-6 = .516

[BettorsChat]

It is my personal software that I developed with my tech team. I run every game of the day at one time. With a full slate of games it takes about 75 minutes. Any game that I post here other than yesterdays two games from puntgod's selection are not the selections from my software. I have a contract with a national capper that prohibits me from posting my software selections anywhere other then his site.

I do things the old fashion way here.

Shoot me an e-mail as I'm curious about your tech team and work [email protected]

[rhodyjoe]

August 24th
MLB
Pitching Option: Listed

CHICAGO CUBS to Win Even(-128)
CLEVELAND (C KLUBER) vs CHICAGO CUBS (J LESTER)

on Lester got absolutely trounced by the Tigers in his last start, lasting only 2.2 innings with 7 runs allowed, which is a reflection of his 6.32 ERA in his last three starts. But I can’t say that has been the norm with him, though. Prior to that bad start he went five starts in a row allowing less than 3 runs. In 7-3 of his last ten he’s done that. No pitcher is immune from bad starts like he had against the Tigers, the Cubs just hope it doesn’t come in a more important game later down the road. How a pitcher responds after outings like that is most important. Lester bounced back this season in all of them except one. In his last two 4 runs surrendered, he came back the next start and put up a donut.

Corey Kluber of the Indians has had some nice appearances this season, and then some not so good starts that don’t remind me of the Kluber of 2014. I made plenty of cash off Kluber last season and also had him in a lot of my UNDER plays, but here in 2015 I haven’t been able to trust him as much. Even if Kluber had his A stuff, the Indians are 58-65 and his extra few wins wouldn’t mean much anyway. But going forward, it’ll be interesting to see what the Indians get from Kluber in future years. On the road Kluber has been far worse, and at Wrigley Field there isn’t much margin for error with the wind blowing out. He holds a 4.17 ERA on the road. I feel this is a nice price for the Cubs behind a bounce back performance from Lester. The Cubs’ bats, next to the Mets, have been the hottest in the league. We have to ride them here. Note that this is an early start time today.(Sports Geek)


BOSTON to Win Even(127)
BOSTON (J KELLY) vs CHI WHITE SOX (J SAMARDZIJA)

We are approaching the stretch run of the season with six weeks remaining to jockey into postseason position. It’s make-or-break time for veteran teams with plenty of expectations like the Nationals and Angels. It’s “can they hold on?” time which could mean some white-knuckle rides for young clubs like Houston and Chicago who have hit the primetime a year or two ahead of schedule. But for all the interesting races, the one that’s not getting enough attention is the one in the National League West. Both Los Angeles and San Fran could very legitimately win the World Series; the Dodgers with the best 1-2 pitching combo on Earth and the Giants being, well, the Giants. It is quite likely one will miss the postseason altogether. That adds even more intrigue to an already-interesting rivalry…

Jeff Samardzija was the subject of a lot of trade rumors heading into the deadline, and perhaps it affected his performance a little bit. He is 0-3 with a 7.14 ERA in his last three starts with a WHIP of 1.64. Or perhaps it’s just another sad chapter in the miserable tale of the return home gone awry. The White Sox and Samardzija had big expectations heading into the season. With he and Sale forming a front-end one-two punch and a talented lineup, things were looking bright.

Suffice it to say, things haven’t gone well. In addition to Samardzija’s obvious troubles, that “talented lineup” is the statistical worst in all of MLB in terms of runs scored. That might bode well for Joe Kelly, who’s lousy stats earned him a demotion in the middle of the season, but who has actually been pitching well of late. He is 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA over his last three starts and is enjoying one of the best stretches of his career. His 17/6 K to BB split and 1.33 WHIP tells me he might have been the recipient of a little good fortune in terms of BA on balls in play, but still, he has more than gotten the job done lately.

The Red Sox have been giving him a lot of run support as well, scoring 33 runs in his last four starts. They are among the worst road hitting teams in all of baseball at .237, which is cause for slight pause. But the fact they’ve scored 82 in their last 10 makes me optimistic they’ll help keep Samardzija down tonight. The veteran pitcher has an ERA of 6.28 in three starts against the Red Sox since heading to the AL.

It feels weird to be psyched about the Red Sox with Joe Kelly pitching and them on the road. But at +130 against a flailing starting pitcher? It becomes a nice value play. I’ll take the Red Sox at plus money tonight, even on the road. (Sports Geek)

At This Forum
79-74-6 = .516

[rhodyjoe]

August 24th Results
MLB
Pitching Option: Listed

CHICAGO CUBS to Win Even(-128) Won 2-1
CLEVELAND (C KLUBER) vs CHICAGO CUBS (J LESTER)


BOSTON to Win Even(127) Won 5-4
BOSTON (J KELLY) vs CHI WHITE SOX (J SAMARDZIJA)

82-74-6 = .525

[rhodyjoe]

August 24th
MLB
Pitching Option: Listed

CHICAGO CUBS to Win Even(-145)
CHICAGO CUBS (J ARRIETA) vs SAN FRANCISCO (M CAIN)

Matt Cain has seen better days pitching. He’s nearing the end of his career, but the Giants are trying to get just about everything they can out of him before he hangs it up. Cain hit his apex in 2012, finishing the season with a strong 2.79 ERA. In each of the following years, Cain has taken a step back. In those three seasons, Cain has failed to keep his ERA under 4.00. I include this season, but there is no way he’s going to be able to get that down under 4.00 at this point with the amount of time left in the season. In six of his last ten starts he’s allowed 4 or more runs. In his last five starts, he has allowed 4 or more runs in all but one. His ERA is a sky high 7.36 in his last three outings, including a 1.70 WHIP and .394 OBA.

This game just looks too easy with Arrieta on the mound, but that is why they play the game. The price looks fishy to me, however it is hard to ignore. I know the thinking by odds makers here is that the Cubs are going to hit a wall after winning their fourth straight at home yesterday, having to travel to the west coast after being so potent at home. I understand that. But Arrieta has been too good to ignore. Take into account how he has just a 0.89 ERA in his last three starts with a 0.89 WHIP and .244 OBA. He’s gone 11-1 in his last twelve starts holding opponents to less than 3 runs per game. Sometimes it looks too good to be true, and other times it just really is that good. I will be on the Cubs once again today.

RL-WASHINGTON to Win -1.5(125)
RL-SAN DIEGO (J SHIELDS) vs RL-WASHINGTON (S STRASBURG)

I made a lot of fun (and money) at the expense of James Shields and his “Big Game James” moniker last season. For the most part, the nickname was more marketing that evidence-based. He had a few big games in big moments, but for the most part, he was a slightly below-average postseason pitcher. The Padres paid for more of the former than the latter, and have gotten pretty pedestrian returns this season. He enters tonight with a nice 9-5 record but just a 3.74 ERA and WHIP of 1.29. Not bad numbers, but certainly not elite.

Stephen Strasburg is dangerously close to becoming another pitcher whose hype outweighs his results. He enters tonight with a record barely over .500 and an ERA over 4.00 with a WHIP of 1.30. HOWEVER – there has been some evidence that the guy we all were electrified by in 2012 is starting to return. Since his oblique strain injury, he is 4-1 with a 1.26 ERA and 43 strikeouts in just 35 2/3 innings. That is frontline ace dominant stuff. If he can maintain his form, the Nats have a chance to sneak back in the race once the Mets start to inevitably cool off. I expect him to dominate a pretty average Padres lineup tonight.

All the Nats should have to do tonight is grab Strasburg three or four runs. I think they’ll do just fine against Shields and score some runs. As an added bonus they get Denard Span back tonight to add a little more punch to their getting-healthy lineup.

There isn’t a ton of value at -180, but I do like the value in a +125 runline wager. That’s where I’m headed tonight.


At This Forum
82-74-6 = .525 ( -0.83 units)

[rhodyjoe]

August 25th Results
MLB
Pitching Option: Listed

CHICAGO CUBS to Win Even(-145) Won 8-5
CHICAGO CUBS (J ARRIETA) vs SAN FRANCISCO (M CAIN)

RL-WASHINGTON to Win -1.5(125) Won 8-3
RL-SAN DIEGO (J SHIELDS) vs RL-WASHINGTON (S STRASBURG)

At This Forum
84-74-6 = .531 (+1.17

[rhodyjoe]

August 26th
MLB
Pitching Option: Listed

LOUIS to Win Even(-103)
ST. LOUIS (J LACKEY) vs ARIZONA (P CORBIN)

The Diamondbacks were hoping a few years ago that they might have an ace on their hand. He was playing lights out ball for the first half of the 2013 season, but the ensuing injury put a damper on everything. I think what you see now is what you’re going to get from Corbin for the rest of his career. I expect an ERA flirting around 4.00 in his future pretty often. He would help the DBacks out a lot if he could win this one against the Cardinals, a game in which Arizona are favorites.

Lackey and the Cardinals have to be feeling at least a little bit disrespected as being the underdogs in this game. I suppose, reason being, the Cardinals just took two from the Diamondbacks so Arizona must be due for a win. It doesn’t always work that way, though. Ever hit two reds in a row on a roulette wheel thinking black has to come up next? Yeah, I have found out the hard way that it doesn’t always work out that way. Lackey enters Arizona with a solid ERA, just south of 3.00. He hasn’t been terrific in his last three showings with a 3.98 ERA. I feel like the pitching matchup is just about even in this game, giving how Corbin is better at home. However, overall, the Cards are the much better team. I like looking for spots where I think odds makers made a mistake, and I think the price should be flipped around. It’s the Cardinals for me today.

CHICAGO CUBS to Win Even(-105)
CHICAGO CUBS (K HENDRICKS) vs SAN FRANCISCO (J PEAVY)

I wrote last week about my affinity for Jake Peavy. And then promptly picked against him and cashed a winner. Cue up the same sentiments today. Peavy is a gamer, and once again I think he’ll battle and keep his team hanging around the game. But I don’t think he’ll snap the Cubbies six game winning streak and derail the hottest team in baseball the last month. The Blue Jays got all the attention with the splashy moves and the win streak, the Mets get a lot of attention because of the stunning reversal of fortune offensively – but it is the Cubs who have just gotten better and better all season long.

Peavy has allowed nine runs and sixteen hits over his last two starts and lasted just 11.2 innings. That won’t get it done tonight, though he has had decent success in his last three starts against the Cubs posting a 3.00 ERA. Hendricks has had some road struggles with a 6.09 ERA in his last three starts, but I still like the value at near even money with the hottest team in baseball piling up runs behind him. Plus, he is pitching in a pretty pitcher friendly ballpark.

Kyle Schwarber became the fastest Cub in team history to hit 12 homeruns (42 games) last night and even Starlin Castro has seemed to find his stroke. If he is hitting, this young lineup is packed from top to bottom. The pitching matchup is fairly even, but the Cubs momentum and dominance over the Giants is too much to ignore. They are 21-4 over their last 25 games. I’ll ride the wave tonight in ATT&T Park.

Point Total Over 7(-125)
CHICAGO CUBS (K HENDRICKS) vs SAN FRANCISCO (J PEAVY)

Believing in the Cubs offense here!


11-3 last 14 picks.

At This Forum
84-74-6 = .531 (+1.17)

[rhodyjoe]

August 26th Results
MLB
Pitching Option: Listed

LOUIS to Win Even(-103) Won 3-1
ST. LOUIS (J LACKEY) vs ARIZONA (P CORBIN)

CHICAGO CUBS to Win Even(-105) Loss 2-4
CHICAGO CUBS (K HENDRICKS) vs SAN FRANCISCO (J PEAVY)

Point Total Over 7(-125) Loss 6
CHICAGO CUBS (K HENDRICKS) vs SAN FRANCISCO (J PEAVY)

At This Forum
85-76-6 = .531 (-0.13 units)