NL Futures analysis
July 28, 2015
With August on the horizon, the odyssey that is the major league baseball season finally has an end in sight. The 60-game sprint has major appeal considering the volume of teams that still have to feel like they have a chance to make the postseason thanks to the second wild card.
Entering Monday’s games, the entire American League and 10 of the National’s teams were within eight games of the final playoff spot. With the trade deadline coming on July 31, a few teams are going to strengthen their chances, following the lead of AL-best Kansas City, which went out and got former Reds ace Johnny Cueto. A few other teams still in contention will wind up sellers, which makes this a great week to get in on MLB Futures.
Odds to win the AL and NL pennants as well as the World Series have been updated at numerous shops, so we’ll post our pre-trade deadline recommendations for the American League here and for the National League below. (Odds via 5Dimes)
Arizona (+12000 to win NL, +23000 to win it all): While Paul Goldschmidt is having an MVP-type season, the Diamondbacks look like a team whose current ceiling is .500. Considering they won 64 games last year in finishing with baseball’s worst record, shooting for the stars and topping 80 would be an impressive improvement. That won’t make the playoffs though.
Atlanta (+10000 to win NL, +22000 to win it all): The Braves knew coming into the season that they were rebuilding and have actually performed far better than expected. Even with Freddie Freeman back, this offense would struggle to do enough damage to win your Tuesday night softball league.
Chi.Cubs (+930 to win NL, +2500 to win it all): Despite falling well behind the Cardinals and Pirates, the Cubs have realistic aspirations of making the postseason since 2008. Including the Bartman game, they’ve lost eight straight and this year’s best-case scenario likely offers one crack to snap that nasty streak and advance in a one-game playoff. You’ll either hear they’re too young or so young they’re bullet-proof, depending on the results. I’d hold off on any serious investments here.
Cincinnati (+16000 to win NL, +32000 to win it all): Selling off Cueto was your cue to check out here, even though the Reds did enter the season with a talent base that should’ve produced more victories than they’ve managed. Manager Brian Price should be on a short leash going forward.
Colorado (+30000 to win NL, +85000 to win it all): Last year’s Rockies won 66 games due to massive injuries. This year’s team barely got going and has often appeared disinterested despite the usual gaudy offensive numbers. Denver baseball fans have been stuck watching their team’s fifth straight losing season tediously unfold.
LA Dodgers (+290 to win NL, +600 to win it all): The brilliance of starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke has helped the Dodgers become chalk, but you’re best off pouncing now since there’s a chance they’ll become even more of a favorite to win the World Series. Expected to make an upgrade between now and week’s end, adding an arm like a Cole Hamels would definitely force books to adjust further as the betting public piles on. Yasiel Puig hasn’t even found his groove. The time is now to pounce on Don Mattingly’s Dodgers if you're going to.
Miami (+16000 to win NL, +42000 to win it all): Since Jose Fernandez, Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon have all missed significant time, the Marlins never had a chance this season. The Fish scored four runs in the last three games of their West Coast swing, all losses, but should get Gordon back this week and will have Stanton back soon. They could play a spoiler role in September but have no chance at making the playoffs.
Milwaukee (+25000 to win NL, +80000 to win it all): Starting 4-17 effectively ended their season early. Although the Brewers have put together one eight-game winning streak already, coming up with another wouldn’t make much difference given the hole they’ve dug themselves. No chance here.
NY Mets (+1000 to win NL, +2200 to win it all): It’s tempting to take a shot on those wonderful Mets arms, but adding Jose Uribe and Kelly Johnson to upgrade the lineup isn’t going to cut it in terms of shoring up the massive weakness. David Wright should be back at some point, but expecting him to hit the ground running isn’t something I want to be stuck backing. Tyler Clippard joining the bullpen should help, but expecting New York to fall further out of the Wild Card race appears more likely.
Pittsburgh (+650 to win NL, +1300 to win it all): If Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano and AJ Burnett don’t wear down, there’s enough pitching to take a shot here, especially with Cole around to trust in a one-and-done Wild Card. The Pirates are likely to make an addition or two and certainly would pay off handsomely given the current odds. They’ve won 3-of-4 against the Cardinals and Nationals in July, not to mention sweeping the Padres. It’s time to hop on the bandwagon if you’re going to.
San Diego (+5500 to win NL, +21000 to win it all): They’re not through yet, but need to win at nearly a 70 percent clip to overcome a lethargic season thus far. Although the payoff would be tremendous, there’s no way to seriously expect the Padres to play well enough to overcome the seven teams already in front of them. Fairy tale endings are nice, but irrational to consider given what we’ve seen thus far from this bunch of underachievers. Odds are they’ll be sellers.
San Francisco (+860 to win NL, +2200 to win it all): The hottest team in baseball happens to be the defending champs, who have found their footing with wins in 12 of 13 games after opening their series with Milwaukee with a 4-2 win. They’re right on the Dodgers heels and still have a number of intangibles in play, including Madison Bumgarner to pitch a Wild Card game. Take advantage of these odds while your still can. They’re not going to be this friendly much longer.
St. Louis (+350 to win NL, +630 to win it all): The Cardinals have amassed the best record in baseball and are exceptional at home. This bodes well for them since they’ve got a substantial lead for home field advantage in the National League, but there are certainly questions about their starting rotation since it doesn’t appear they’ll replace Adam Wainwright. Although John Lackey, Carlos Martinez, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha can hold the fort down, there are enough question marks to resist riding with the Redbirds. They’ve added Steve Cishek to the bullpen and are reportedly looking to pick up another bat, but I’d wait to see if there’s not a more lucrative payoff available next month in case they hit a rough patch. At the moment, having the best record in baseball in spite of a few glaring question marks doesn’t make for a good buy.
Washington (+390 to win NL, +725 to win it all): Ace Max Scherzer has done his part in anchoring a rotation that was expected to be baseball’s deepest and most formidable, but only Jordan Zimmermann has joined him in being consistent. Doug Fister, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez have all had their issues, as has the bullpen. Both the defense and the bats have also had moments that haven’t inspired confidence, though it will help that slugger Jayson Werth is returning to the lineup to provide better protection for standout Bryce Harper. Playing in baseball’s weakest division lends itself nicely to ensuring the Nats will make the playoffs, but nothing Matt Williams has done as a manager leads you to believe he can lead this team to the top.
July 28, 2015
With August on the horizon, the odyssey that is the major league baseball season finally has an end in sight. The 60-game sprint has major appeal considering the volume of teams that still have to feel like they have a chance to make the postseason thanks to the second wild card.
Entering Monday’s games, the entire American League and 10 of the National’s teams were within eight games of the final playoff spot. With the trade deadline coming on July 31, a few teams are going to strengthen their chances, following the lead of AL-best Kansas City, which went out and got former Reds ace Johnny Cueto. A few other teams still in contention will wind up sellers, which makes this a great week to get in on MLB Futures.
Odds to win the AL and NL pennants as well as the World Series have been updated at numerous shops, so we’ll post our pre-trade deadline recommendations for the American League here and for the National League below. (Odds via 5Dimes)
Arizona (+12000 to win NL, +23000 to win it all): While Paul Goldschmidt is having an MVP-type season, the Diamondbacks look like a team whose current ceiling is .500. Considering they won 64 games last year in finishing with baseball’s worst record, shooting for the stars and topping 80 would be an impressive improvement. That won’t make the playoffs though.
Atlanta (+10000 to win NL, +22000 to win it all): The Braves knew coming into the season that they were rebuilding and have actually performed far better than expected. Even with Freddie Freeman back, this offense would struggle to do enough damage to win your Tuesday night softball league.
Chi.Cubs (+930 to win NL, +2500 to win it all): Despite falling well behind the Cardinals and Pirates, the Cubs have realistic aspirations of making the postseason since 2008. Including the Bartman game, they’ve lost eight straight and this year’s best-case scenario likely offers one crack to snap that nasty streak and advance in a one-game playoff. You’ll either hear they’re too young or so young they’re bullet-proof, depending on the results. I’d hold off on any serious investments here.
Cincinnati (+16000 to win NL, +32000 to win it all): Selling off Cueto was your cue to check out here, even though the Reds did enter the season with a talent base that should’ve produced more victories than they’ve managed. Manager Brian Price should be on a short leash going forward.
Colorado (+30000 to win NL, +85000 to win it all): Last year’s Rockies won 66 games due to massive injuries. This year’s team barely got going and has often appeared disinterested despite the usual gaudy offensive numbers. Denver baseball fans have been stuck watching their team’s fifth straight losing season tediously unfold.
LA Dodgers (+290 to win NL, +600 to win it all): The brilliance of starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke has helped the Dodgers become chalk, but you’re best off pouncing now since there’s a chance they’ll become even more of a favorite to win the World Series. Expected to make an upgrade between now and week’s end, adding an arm like a Cole Hamels would definitely force books to adjust further as the betting public piles on. Yasiel Puig hasn’t even found his groove. The time is now to pounce on Don Mattingly’s Dodgers if you're going to.
Miami (+16000 to win NL, +42000 to win it all): Since Jose Fernandez, Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon have all missed significant time, the Marlins never had a chance this season. The Fish scored four runs in the last three games of their West Coast swing, all losses, but should get Gordon back this week and will have Stanton back soon. They could play a spoiler role in September but have no chance at making the playoffs.
Milwaukee (+25000 to win NL, +80000 to win it all): Starting 4-17 effectively ended their season early. Although the Brewers have put together one eight-game winning streak already, coming up with another wouldn’t make much difference given the hole they’ve dug themselves. No chance here.
NY Mets (+1000 to win NL, +2200 to win it all): It’s tempting to take a shot on those wonderful Mets arms, but adding Jose Uribe and Kelly Johnson to upgrade the lineup isn’t going to cut it in terms of shoring up the massive weakness. David Wright should be back at some point, but expecting him to hit the ground running isn’t something I want to be stuck backing. Tyler Clippard joining the bullpen should help, but expecting New York to fall further out of the Wild Card race appears more likely.
Pittsburgh (+650 to win NL, +1300 to win it all): If Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano and AJ Burnett don’t wear down, there’s enough pitching to take a shot here, especially with Cole around to trust in a one-and-done Wild Card. The Pirates are likely to make an addition or two and certainly would pay off handsomely given the current odds. They’ve won 3-of-4 against the Cardinals and Nationals in July, not to mention sweeping the Padres. It’s time to hop on the bandwagon if you’re going to.
San Diego (+5500 to win NL, +21000 to win it all): They’re not through yet, but need to win at nearly a 70 percent clip to overcome a lethargic season thus far. Although the payoff would be tremendous, there’s no way to seriously expect the Padres to play well enough to overcome the seven teams already in front of them. Fairy tale endings are nice, but irrational to consider given what we’ve seen thus far from this bunch of underachievers. Odds are they’ll be sellers.
San Francisco (+860 to win NL, +2200 to win it all): The hottest team in baseball happens to be the defending champs, who have found their footing with wins in 12 of 13 games after opening their series with Milwaukee with a 4-2 win. They’re right on the Dodgers heels and still have a number of intangibles in play, including Madison Bumgarner to pitch a Wild Card game. Take advantage of these odds while your still can. They’re not going to be this friendly much longer.
St. Louis (+350 to win NL, +630 to win it all): The Cardinals have amassed the best record in baseball and are exceptional at home. This bodes well for them since they’ve got a substantial lead for home field advantage in the National League, but there are certainly questions about their starting rotation since it doesn’t appear they’ll replace Adam Wainwright. Although John Lackey, Carlos Martinez, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha can hold the fort down, there are enough question marks to resist riding with the Redbirds. They’ve added Steve Cishek to the bullpen and are reportedly looking to pick up another bat, but I’d wait to see if there’s not a more lucrative payoff available next month in case they hit a rough patch. At the moment, having the best record in baseball in spite of a few glaring question marks doesn’t make for a good buy.
Washington (+390 to win NL, +725 to win it all): Ace Max Scherzer has done his part in anchoring a rotation that was expected to be baseball’s deepest and most formidable, but only Jordan Zimmermann has joined him in being consistent. Doug Fister, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez have all had their issues, as has the bullpen. Both the defense and the bats have also had moments that haven’t inspired confidence, though it will help that slugger Jayson Werth is returning to the lineup to provide better protection for standout Bryce Harper. Playing in baseball’s weakest division lends itself nicely to ensuring the Nats will make the playoffs, but nothing Matt Williams has done as a manager leads you to believe he can lead this team to the top.
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