The Bum's Sports Page For Saturday July 11th Best Bets-Trends-News !

[StarDust Bum]

AFL League Standings - 2015

AMERICAN CONFERENCE

EAST W L PCT PF PA HOME AWAY AM. CONF. NAT. CONF. DIV ATS O/U

Philadelphia 12 2 .857 812 632 7-0 5-2 8-2 4-0 3-0 4-5-0 4-5-0

Cleveland 7 7 .500 747 732 2-4 5-3 6-5 1-2 3-1 4-7-0 7-4-0

New Orleans 2 12 .143 565 768 2-6 0-6 1-10 1-2 0-5 6-4-0 4-6-0


SOUTH W L PCT PF PA HOME AWAY AM. CONF. NAT. CONF. DIV ATS O/U

Orlando 8 6 .571 766 741 5-2 3-4 6-4 2-2 2-1 5-6-0 5-6-0

Jacksonville 7 6 .538 700 649 4-2 3-4 5-5 2-1 1-3 4-5-0 6-3-0

Tampa Bay 6 7 .462 611 652 4-3 2-4 5-5 1-2 2-1 7-3-0 5-5-0


NATIONAL CONFERENCE

PACIFIC W L PCT PF PA HOME AWAY AM. CONF. NAT. CONF. DIV ATS O/U

San Jose 14 1 .933 890 546 6-1 8-0 4-0 10-1 5-0 6-5-0 3-8-0

Spokane 4 9 .308 632 759 2-5 2-4 1-2 3-7 1-4 4-5-0 6-3-0

Portland 3 10 .231 594 730 3-4 0-6 0-3 3-7 1-3 3-6-0 5-4-0


WEST W L PCT PF PA HOME AWAY AM. CONF. NAT. CONF. DIV ATS O/U

Arizona 11 2 .846 737 581 5-1 6-1 4-0 7-2 3-1 6-3-0 4-5-0

Las Vegas 5 8 .385 603 699 3-4 2-4 0-3 5-5 3-1 4-5-0 5-4-0

Los Angeles 2 11 .154 526 694 1-5 1-6 0-3 2-8 0-4 6-5-0 4-7-0

[StarDust Bum]

After a brief sputter, Tulsa cashing bets again

Jul 11, 2015

The Tulsa Shock were an incredible bet to begin the WNBA season, posting a record of 8-0 against the spread. They dropped three-straight at the betting window afterwards, but have returned to the winning column with back-to-back ATS wins heading into Saturday's meeting with the Los Angeles Sparks.

Tulsa has covered the ATS wins this season (10-3 ATS) but are behind the Connecticut Sun (8-2 ATS) in terms of winning percentage in the WNBA ATS standings.

They lost to the Sparks by a score of 98-95, but covered as 5.5-point road dogs back on July 3.

[StarDust Bum]

Tigers' 19-game Over run the greatest sports betting streak in history

Jul 10, 2015

The summer is supposed to be a down time for sports betting. Not a time for arguably the greatest gambling streak ever.

While the sports betting industry lay half asleep in the July sun, dreaming ahead to those fall football days, the Detroit Tigers turned the “Dog Days of Summer” into an Over bettors paradise by topping the total in 19 straight games. Detroit’s Over run came to an end Thursday night in a 4-2 win at Minnesota that stayed Under the 8-run total.

From June 17, an 8-4 loss to Cincinnati that played Over the 6.5-run total, to July 8, a 5-4 victory at Seattle to trump the 7.5-run number, the Tigers earned $17,660 for dime bettors ($1,000) backing the Over during that incredible totals streak. The length of that Over stretch and those huge earnings puts the “Total Topping Tigers” of 2015 at the top of the betting mountain in terms of the greatest runs in sports betting history.

Of course, we can only go back as far as our wagering records will allow, which means we don’t have game-to-game odds on the 1916 New York Giants’ 26-game winning streak. But it’s safe to say if we did, the Giants would have been hefty moneyline favorites in most of those games and they wouldn’t come close to the money earned during Detroit’s 19-game Over run.

Don’t think we’re right? Let’s compare the Tigers’ Over run against the 2002 Oakland A’s 20-game winning streak – now famously depicted in the 2011 film Moneyball - which actually earned just $9,590 for MLB dime bettors from August 13 to September 4, 2002. The Athletics, made out to be underdogs in the movie, were moneyline favorites in all of those 20 games with prices peaking at -330 just before the streak ended.

The Tigers’ Over explosion was not only a product of their own offense – averaging 5.79 runs per game in that span – but also a porous defense on the other side of the ball, allowing 6.42 runs against during those 19 games. Detroit’s contests were tabbed with an average total of just over eight runs during the streak, topping the number by an average of 4.21 runs per game.

Covers Expert Jesse Schule is one of the savvy handicappers to ride the Tigers' Over run to the bank. He played the Over with Detroit nine times during that stretch, including eight Overs between June 26 and July 8. He says he was amazed at how little oddsmakers adjusted to the streak, even toward the end of its run.

"One thing that I think separates this historic run from others is that it appeared to be completely ignored by the bookmakers," Schule says. "Despite going Over in 18 straight games prior to Wednesday's game in Seattle, I was able to get a total of 7.5."

"When I am following a trend, I am careful to avoid 'being late to the party'. What I mean by that is, if a team wins 10 in a row, but the price goes up after each win, you end up with an inflated line," he adds. "It didn't look as though the bookmakers raised the number at all to adjust for the fact Detroit's games continued to sail Over the total."

Detroit’s 19-game Over streak is the longest totals run we have on our betting records, going back to 1999, overtaking the 2005 Florida Marlins’ 15-game Over run, that stacked $13,390 for $1,000 totals bettors. The longest Under streak in that time frame is a tie at 14 games between the 2004 Milwaukee Brewers and the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who also hold the second-longest MLB winning streak since 1999 at 15 games.

The Tigers’ amazing Over run of 2015 also holds up against the biggest betting streaks in the major sports (that we have recorded). Its closest competition comes from the NHL, where the 2003-04 Carolina Hurricanes stayed Under the total 15 times in a span of 19 games, with four pushes, between December 3 2003 and January 11, 2004. That stretch earned $13,650 for NHL dime totals bettors but may not qualify as a true "winning" streak, since there were four pushes against the number.

The 2005-06 New Jersey Devils won 15 straight games from March 28 to April 29, 2006 – spanning the regular season and NHL playoffs. Hockey bettors placing a $1,000 wager on each of the Devils’ games during that tear took in $13,020 in profits, including a 3-2 shootout win in Ottawa as +223 underdogs that started the improbable ride.

Detroit’s Over success has made 2015 a crazy year for sports betting streaks. The Atlanta Hawks made betting history this past NBA season with a mind-blowing 15-game ATS roll from December 27, 2014 to January 23, 2015 – the longest NBA ATS winning run since the 1990-91 season (as far back as our ATS records go).

Atlanta backers would have bought up the Hawks’ spreads at different prices, but with most NBA lines priced around -110 (they climbed even higher toward the end of the streak with the market blindly siding with Atlanta), basketball bettors are looking at a best-case return of $13,650. However, since books padded Atlanta’s vig during this run, the 15-game ATS streak likely earned much less.

Here’s a look at the biggest betting streaks in each of the major sports:

NFL

ATS: 1985 New England Patriots – 14 games
Over: 2010 Dallas Cowboys – 12 games
Under: 2003 Buffalo Bills – 11 games

NCAAF

ATS: 2013 Auburn/1985 Bowling Green/1995 Ohio State – 11 games
Over: 2008 Oklahoma/2009 NC State - 9 games
Under: 2008 Tennessee/2006 Stanford – 10 games

NBA

ATS: 2014-15 Atlanta Hawks – 15 games
Over: 1990-91 Minnesota Timberwolves – 13 games
Under: 1996-97 Houston/2003-04 L.A. Lakers/2014-15 Milwaukee – 12 games

NCAAB

ATS: 2010-11 George Mason Patriots – 14 games
Over: 2008-09 Green Bay Phoenix – 14 games
Under: 2008-09 Eastern Illinois Panthers – 15 games

MLB

Moneyline: 2002 Oakland A’s – 20 games ($9,590 on $1,000 bet)
Over: 2015 Detroit Tigers – 19
Under: 2001 Seattle/2004 Milwaukee – 14 games

NHL

Moneyline: 2005-06 New Jersey Devils – 15 games ($13,020 on $1,000 bet)
Over: 2014-15 Buffalo/2002-03 Detroit/2011-12 Pittsburgh – 10 games
Under: 2003-04 Carolina Hurricanes – 15 games

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

What college football expert Phil Steele thinks about the ACC Coastal Division

7) Virginia-- 5-19 in ACC last three years; make a bowl this year, or else.......

6) Duke-- 11-6 in ACC last two years; they were 18-126 from 1995-2012.

5) North Carolina-- Have 17 starters back but that defense has to be a LOT better.

4) Pittsburgh-- Another new HC, but Narduzzi inherits a decent amount of talent.

3) Georgia Tech-- Option offense is hard to prep for; they beat Clemson, Georgia last year, won their bowl game

2) Miami-- Al Golden looks like young George Allen; time to start coaching like him.

1) Virginia Tech-- 12-12 in ACC last three years, do the Hokies bounce back?

**********

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind......

13) 12,422 basketball fans paid $28 each to get into UNLV's two basketball arenas Friday to watch summer league games; thats a testament to the NBA's popularity.

12) NBA TV will have summer league games on for next nine days, usually starting at 4pm eastern time. Highly competitive games, some guys playing for their careers.

11) Deron Williams/Nets parted ways, then Williams signed with Dallas, which needed a starting point guard. Mavs traded for Zaza Pachulia, to play where DeAndre Jordan would've played had he signed with Dallas.

10) San Antonio Spurs signed a 7-4 center from Serbia, who is 26, went undrafted back in 2010. From what I read, he has developed nicely and will be a typical Spur.

9) NFL shortened Greg Hardy's suspension from ten games to four, meaning his first game will be against New England in Week 5.

8) Saskatchewan Roughriders lost 35-32 in OT last night; they've scored 72 points in last two games but lost both in OT. Riders are 0-3 despite having led all three of their games in the fourth quarter.

Damn, its July 11 and its Week 3 in the CFL already?

7) As far as Jason Pierre-Paul goes, apparently it is his broken thumb that is more of a problem than his amputated index finger. He has to be healthy when he signs his tender or else the Giants can put him on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list and then they would control when they start paying him.

Sounds like a lot of legal mumbo-jumbo but as always, it is about the money.

6) HR Derby will be timed this year, meaning there is more pressure on pitchers, so amateur pitchers like dads (Robinson Cano/Bryce Harper) or 71-year old Connie Mack coaches (Josh Hamilton) might not be used as often as in the past, which is too bad.

5) Catcher Derek Norris led off the last four games for San Diego, the first time a catcher has ever led off for the Padres.

While I'm on the Padres, they are now 39-49, 7-16 since firing their manager. Maybe Cornell alum/GM AJ Preller should get a lefty for his bullpen; I'm told it helps.

4) Chicago Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup three times in last six years, so they have salary cap problems; they traded Patrick Sharp to Dallas this week, which has to be a sad day for all ********* fans.

3) Twins 8, Tigers 6-- Detroit led 6-0 in 8th inning, 6-1 in ninth; this was a horrible loss for a team struggling to stay in playoff contention.

Minnesota TV announcer Dick Bremer, who is excellent, called this game ".......the most improbable comeback I've seen IN YEARS!!!!"

While I'm here, Brian Dozier is an All-Star, whether he goes to Cincinnati or not.

2) Pete Rose is obviously controversial; he once injured Ray Fosse when he barreled into the catcher while scoring the winning run in the 1970 All-Star Game. The guy who hit the ball that scored Rose was Jim Hickman, who was on the Cubs then but also is the first-ever Met to homer three times in one game and also the first Met to hit for the cycle. Just thought you'd like to know.

1) Irony Department: Rose wound up serving 152 days in prison for tax issues in 1990-91; he did his time in a prison in Marion, IL-- Ray Fosse's hometown.

[StarDust Bum]

RECAPPING YESTERDAYS ACTION:

WNBA GOES 3 - 3 SLAM DUNK HITS AGAIN

CFL GOES 3 - 1 TRIPLE PLAYS GOES 2 - 0

MLB GOES 7 - 3 DOUBLE PLAYS 2 - 1, TRIPLE PLAYS 2 - 0, GRAND SLAMS 2 - 0 AND

A LAST MINUTE ADD WAS MY TOTAL OF THE MONTH DOUBLE GRAND SLAM ON THE S.F

GIANTS GOING UNDER 6.5 BIG TIME LOSER AS THE GIANTS FOUND A WAY TO SCORE

MORE THEN JUST A FEW RUNS FOR BUM....

WNBA JUNE/ JULY RECORD:


*****...............................4 - 9 - 2
DOUBLE PLAY....................16 - 18
TRIPLE PLAY......................6 - 4
SLAM DUNK.......................13 - 8


MLB RECORD FOR JUNE/JULY:


*****.............................56 - 64 - 1 .............................- 2.92
double play......................96 - 100 - 2 ............................- 14.55
triple play........................39 - 29 - 1 .............................+ 24.52
grand slam......................58 - 59 - 2...............................- 24.84
double grand slam.............0 - 1.......................................- 8.00


CFL JUNE/JULY RECORD:

SINGLE PLAY.................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAY................................3 - 3
TRIPLE PLAY..................................3 - 0
BLOW OUT....................................0 - 2

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Consensus Picks

SIDES (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

10:05 PM Philadelphia +176 194 24.53% San Francisco -192 597 75.47% View View

4:10 PM Arizona +124 248 28.21% NY Mets -134 631 71.79% View View

6:35 PM Oakland +166 297 37.13% Cleveland -181 503 62.88% View View

9:05 PM San Diego +108 343 43.04% Texas -117 454 56.96% View View

2:10 PM Toronto -112 397 44.56% Kansas City +104 494 55.44% View View

10:10 PM Milwaukee +119 137 44.63% LA Dodgers -129 170 55.37% View View

4:05 PM Detroit +116 378 44.84% Minnesota -126 465 55.16% View View

7:15 PM St. Louis +109 364 44.88% Pittsburgh -118 447 55.12% View View

4:10 PM Atlanta +152 373 46.34% Colorado -165 432 53.66% View View

4:05 PM Chi. White Sox +101 432 48.16% Chi. Cubs -109 465 51.84% View View

7:15 PM Washington +115 189 50.00% Baltimore -125 189 50.00% View View

7:15 PM NY Yankees +132 414 51.05% Boston -143 397 48.95% View View

4:10 PM Cincinnati -106 415 53.90% Miami -102 355 46.10% View View

10:10 PM LA Angels -115 516 63.63% Seattle +106 295 36.37% View View

4:10 PM Houston -112 608 67.41% Tampa Bay +104 294 32.59% View View


TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

4:05 PM Chi. White Sox 6.5 81 35.37% Chi. Cubs 6.5 148 64.63% View View

9:05 PM San Diego 9 113 41.70% Texas 9 158 58.30% View View

4:10 PM Houston 6.5 214 42.21% Tampa Bay 6.5 293 57.79% View View

4:10 PM Cincinnati 7.5 122 46.21% Miami 7.5 142 53.79% View View

2:10 PM Toronto 8 245 49.10% Kansas City 8 254 50.90% View View

7:15 PM St. Louis 6.5 235 50.43% Pittsburgh 6.5 231 49.57% View View

7:15 PM Washington 7.5 115 51.34% Baltimore 7.5 109 48.66% View View

4:10 PM Arizona 6.5 238 52.42% NY Mets 6.5 216 47.58% View View

6:35 PM Oakland 7.5 227 53.16% Cleveland 7.5 200 46.84% View View

4:10 PM Atlanta 10 263 55.96% Colorado 10 207 44.04% View View

7:15 PM NY Yankees 8.5 258 56.46% Boston 8.5 199 43.54% View View

10:10 PM Milwaukee 7 108 56.54% LA Dodgers 7 83 43.46% View View

10:10 PM LA Angels 7.5 279 60.65% Seattle 7.5 181 39.35% View View

10:05 PM Philadelphia 7.5 313 67.31% San Francisco 7.5 152 32.69% View View

4:05 PM Detroit 8.5 366 69.71% Minnesota 8.5 159 30.29% View View

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, JULY 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Toronto - 2:10 PM ET Kansas City +104 500 *****
Kansas City - Under 8 500

Chi. White Sox - 4:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox +101 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Chi. Cubs - Under 6.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Detroit - 4:05 PM ET Detroit +116 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Minnesota - Over 8.5 500

Houston - 4:10 PM ET Houston -112 500 *****
Tampa Bay - Under 6.5 500

Arizona - 4:10 PM ET Arizona +124 500 GRAND SLAM
NY Mets - Under 6.5 500

Atlanta - 4:10 PM ET Colorado -165 500 *****
Colorado - Under 10 500

Cincinnati - 4:10 PM ET Miami -102 500
Miami - Under 7.5 500

Oakland - 6:35 PM ET Cleveland -181 500 GRAND SLAM
Cleveland - Under 7.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, JULY 11 OPINONS ONLY

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia -13 500
Philadelphia - Under 108.5 500

Orlando - 7:30 PM ET Tampa Bay +1 500
Tampa Bay - Over 102.5 500

Las Vegas - 9:00 PM ET Arizona -21.5 500
Arizona - Under 101.5 500

Jacksonville - 10:00 PM ET Jacksonville -12.5 500
Portland - Under 108 500

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, JULY 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Los Angeles - 8:00 PM ET Los Angeles +5.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Tulsa - Over 157.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Saturday, July 11


Big difference in Carrasco's home and away starts

Carlos Carrasco of the Cleveland Indians is the probable starter for Saturday's date with the Oakland A's at Progressive Field, but he has not been as good in front of his home fans as he has been on the road.

In nine starts this season, the Venezuelan is 4-5 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. In eight road starts, Carrasco is 6-2 with a 3.29 ERA and solid 1.01 WHIP.

Carrasco and the Indians will look to chalk up a W as big -181 home favorites. The A's, who are expected to counter with righty Chris Bassitt, are being offered around +166.


Reds RHP Iglesias comes off DL

The Cincinnati Reds reinstated right-hander Raisel Iglesias from the 15-day disabled list Saturday.

Iglesias has been on the disabled list since June 5 with a strained left oblique. He is 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA in six games, including four starts.

Iglesias was expected to make a spot start Saturday against the Miami Marlins in place of right-hander Anthony DeSclafani, who is bothered by lingering tightness in his gluteus. DeSclafani is expected to miss only one turn and rejoin the rotation right after the All-Star break.

The Reds also optioned center fielder Yorman Rodriguez to Triple-A Louisville.


Lackey has been bringing his best lately

St. Louis Cardinals hurler John Lackey has been in excellent form in his previous five outings, going at least seven innings and posting a personal record of 3-1 (Cardinals are 4-1) and a 1.75 ERA.

Lackey is coming off a particularly strong outing his last time out, going seven innings in a 6-0 win over the Chicago Cubs on July 6.

The 36-year-old is probable to start against A.J. Burnett and Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday evening. Books are offering the Red Birds around +109 (Pirates -118) and the total is 6.5.


Wilson strong versus Mariners in two starts this year

Los Angeles Angels starter C.J. Wilson has flexed his muscle against the Seattle Mariners in two starts this season, going 15 innings and surrendering just two earned runs.

The Halos won both meetings with the Under cashing in each instance as well.

The southpaw is slated to get the ball against the club's AL West rival Saturday evening. Books are offering L.A. around -115 with the Mariners, who are expected to start the struggling Hisahi Iwakuma, are in the +106 vicinity.


Twins have won their past five when Hughes starts

Phil Hughes is expected to get the ball for the Twins today, with Minnesota hoping to win their sixth consecutive contest when he is pitching.

In those five starts, Hughes is 3-0 and has only allowed 2.2 runs per game. Maybe even more impressive has been his control, as Hughes has walked just two batters during that span.

The Twins are currently -126 when they host the Detroit Tigers Saturday.


Cardinals place RHP Harris on DL

The St. Louis Cardinals placed right-hander Mitch Harris on the 15-day disabled list Saturday with a right groin strain.

The move is retroactive to July 9. Harris is 1-1 with a 3.10 ERA in 19 relief appearances this season.

The team also recalled right-hander Sam Tuivailala and left-hander Nick Greenwood from Triple-A Memphis.

In addition, first baseman Xavier Scruggs was optioned to Memphis following Friday night's game.

Tuivailala, 22, who appeared in three games for the Cardinals earlier this season, has compiled a 3-0 mark with 12 saves and a 1.78 ERA in 30 games at Memphis, striking out 26 in 30 1/3 innings.

Greenwood, 27, was 7-3 with a 5.42 ERA in 22 games (12 starts) at Memphis, but since becoming a regular starter for the Redbirds on May 25, he is 5-2 with a 3.88 ERA in 51 innings.

Scruggs is hitting .262 with seven RBIs in 17 games with the Cardinals this year.


This pitcher has yet to record a win this season

The Philadelphia Phillies need all the pitching help they can get, and it has not come from David Buchanan. In the right-hander's five starts this season, the Phillies are 0-5.

On the season Buchanan is 0-5 with a 8.76 ERA, those starts all came in April before he was demoted to Triple-A.

The Phillies are currently +176 when they visit AT&T Park Saturday.


Under is red-hot following a loss from this team

The over/under has gone an impressive 1-11 in the Atlanta Braves' past 12 games following a loss.

The Braves offense, which has not been lighting the world on fire this year, has only averaged 2.9 runs during those 12 games.

The total is currently 10 when the Braves visit the Colorado Rockies Saturday.


Padres offense non-existent during losing streak

The San Diego Padres have dropped their past six games and their offense has been down right hard to watch. The Friars have managed a meager 1.7 runs per game during their skid.

Total bettors have had some profitable games though, with the over.under going 0-5-1 in the Padres past six.

San Diego is currently +108 when they visit the Texas Rangers Saturday.

[StarDust Bum]

EVENING MLB RATED PLAYS:

Washington - 7:15 PM ET Washington +112 500 *****
Baltimore - Over 7.5 500

NY Yankees - 7:15 PM ET Boston -143 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Boston - Under 8.5 500

St. Louis - 7:15 PM ET St. Louis +109 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Pittsburgh - Over 6.5 500

San Diego - 9:05 PM ET San Diego +108 500
Texas - Under 9 500

Philadelphia - 10:05 PM ET Philadelphia +176 500 DOUBLE PLAY
San Francisco - Over 7.5 500

LA Angels - 10:10 PM ET LA Angels +102 500 *****
Seattle - Under 7.5 500

Milwaukee - 10:10 PM ET Milwaukee +130 500 GRAND SLAM
LA Dodgers - Over 7 500