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Five MLB ballpark quirks baseball bettors need to know
Jul 07, 2015
More so than any other sport, betting on Major League Baseball requires gamblers to handicap not only the two teams taking the field, but the ballpark environment as well.
Last month, Eno Sarris of Fangraphs.com explored the sun/glare effects that take place at AT&T Park in San Francisco, and it got us thinking of other MLB park quirks that bettors should always keep in mind.
Below we’ve isolated five unique park factors for you to consider when placing wagers on games taking place at these specific venues.
Extreme foul ball territory at O.co Coliseum (Oakland, CA)
No stadium in the majors boasts more foul territory than the home of the Oakland Athletics, which is just one of the many reasons why general manager Billy Beane enjoys building his club around starting pitching.
When it comes to Oakland’s excessive foul ground territory, the additional space aids in producing a significant increase in foul-ball outs each season over the rest of MLB. Look no further than the 2012-2013 seasons for proof, as O.co experienced 398 foul outs during that time span, good for the most in the bigs by a wide margin (second place was Seattle with over 100 less at 270!).
Believe it or not, Oakland starting pitchers currently boast a combined ERA of 3.00 this season (second in MLB) despite the fact that the team owns one of the worst records in the American League.
Right-handed power at Fenway Park (Boston, MA)
Everybody and their mother knows about Fenway Park’s legendary Green Monster, but did you know that despite it’s excessive height, the Red Sox’s left field wall serves as a significant boon for right-handed hitting?
From 2012-2014, Boston led all of MLB in BABIP (batting average balls in play) for right-handed hitters at .353, while the league average was a mere .311. A 42-point jump in the BABIP category should set off alarm bells for bettors, especially when opposing right-handed dominant lineups come to town.
Additionally, bettors should keep a close eye on when left-handed pitchers take the bump at Fenway Park. They’ll tend to struggle more than righties do, in some small part, to the Green Monster.
The wind at Wrigley Field (Chicago, IL)
Memorial Day, 2011. I still remember it like it was yesterday thanks to a great tip I received from a good friend who lives in Chicago. The text message simply read, “Heading to Wrigley today, wind howling out to center, might want to play the Over.”
At the time, the total for the Astros-Cubs May 30 tilt was in the neighborhood of nine runs, but closed at a staggering 13 once word made its way around betting circles about the aforementioned uptick in wind. The Cubs and Astros combined for five runs in the first inning and had 14 on the board by the top of the seventh for a solid, no-effort cash that would go towards a steak dinner for myself and the guy kind enough to tip me off about the Chicago weather.
The moral of the story? When betting any MLB totals, especially games at Wrigley Field, it is of the utmost importance to study the wind direction before walking up to the counter. No park in baseball is more affected by the wind than Wrigley, but that’s not to say others don’t benefit from it as well.
Two good websites to consult include Baseball-Weather.com and DailyBaseballData.com, as well as the usual suspects like Weather.com. Just be sure you beat the inevitable line move.
Funny anecdote: Bear with me here, as I just had to tell this story. The same guy mentioned above who tipped me off about the wind at Wrigley took a home run missile shot off his right shoulder during this showdown while standing in the centerfield bleachers spending more time running his mouth and drinking beer than paying attention to the game. I saw it happen on television and rewound the play no fewer than 25 times.
The short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
At a distance of 314 feet from home plate, the right field wall at Yankee Stadium is the third-shortest RF wall in the majors, save for where the Boston Red Sox (302 feet) and San Francisco Giants (309 feet) play their home games.
But the thing about San Francisco is that between the wind and the enormous height of AT&T Park’s right field wall, very few home runs sail over that section of the fence. That’s certainly not the case in the Bronx, where left-handed pull hitters have been mashing on a consistent basis for quite some time.
Over the last three years, left-handed hitters at Yankee Stadium combined for .371 isolated power when hitting to right field, with 40.1 percent of their fly balls soaring over the fence. Both of those statistics lead all of Major League Baseball by a mile.
So what does that tell us? When handicapping games at Yankee Stadium, be especially weary of right-handed, fly-ball pitchers, but look to target left-handed power lineups.
Retractable roofs (6 teams)
Major League Baseball currently features six organizations (Arizona, Houston, Miami, Milwaukee, Seattle, and Toronto) that own a retractable roof stadium. Here’s a look at how many plate appearances per home run it takes for these clubs when playing outdoors as opposed to when they play indoors:
Arizona Diamondbacks: 44.5 PA/HR outdoors, 41.5 PA/HR indoors
Houston Astros: 33.1 PA/HR outdoors, 23.5 PA/HR indoors
Miami Marlins: 42.2 PA/HR outdoors, 42.5 PA/HR indoors
Milwaukee Brewers: 46.2 PA/HR outdoors, 37.7 PA/HR indoors
Seattle Mariners: 31.7 PA/HR outdoors, 37.9 PA/HR indoors
Toronto Blue Jays: 35.9 PA/HR outdoors, 26.1 PA/HR indoors
Notice anything interesting here? Four of the aforementioned clubs (Arizona, Houston, Milwaukee and Toronto) hit home runs at a much more frequent pace when playing indoors as opposed to outdoors. Miami is pretty much a push while Seattle proves to be the outlier in this situation.
Bettors who are looking to wager on MLB totals played in games with a retractable roof stadium need to know as soon as possible whether or not said roof will be open or closed come first pitch.
Jul 07, 2015
More so than any other sport, betting on Major League Baseball requires gamblers to handicap not only the two teams taking the field, but the ballpark environment as well.
Last month, Eno Sarris of Fangraphs.com explored the sun/glare effects that take place at AT&T Park in San Francisco, and it got us thinking of other MLB park quirks that bettors should always keep in mind.
Below we’ve isolated five unique park factors for you to consider when placing wagers on games taking place at these specific venues.
Extreme foul ball territory at O.co Coliseum (Oakland, CA)
No stadium in the majors boasts more foul territory than the home of the Oakland Athletics, which is just one of the many reasons why general manager Billy Beane enjoys building his club around starting pitching.
When it comes to Oakland’s excessive foul ground territory, the additional space aids in producing a significant increase in foul-ball outs each season over the rest of MLB. Look no further than the 2012-2013 seasons for proof, as O.co experienced 398 foul outs during that time span, good for the most in the bigs by a wide margin (second place was Seattle with over 100 less at 270!).
Believe it or not, Oakland starting pitchers currently boast a combined ERA of 3.00 this season (second in MLB) despite the fact that the team owns one of the worst records in the American League.
Right-handed power at Fenway Park (Boston, MA)
Everybody and their mother knows about Fenway Park’s legendary Green Monster, but did you know that despite it’s excessive height, the Red Sox’s left field wall serves as a significant boon for right-handed hitting?
From 2012-2014, Boston led all of MLB in BABIP (batting average balls in play) for right-handed hitters at .353, while the league average was a mere .311. A 42-point jump in the BABIP category should set off alarm bells for bettors, especially when opposing right-handed dominant lineups come to town.
Additionally, bettors should keep a close eye on when left-handed pitchers take the bump at Fenway Park. They’ll tend to struggle more than righties do, in some small part, to the Green Monster.
The wind at Wrigley Field (Chicago, IL)
Memorial Day, 2011. I still remember it like it was yesterday thanks to a great tip I received from a good friend who lives in Chicago. The text message simply read, “Heading to Wrigley today, wind howling out to center, might want to play the Over.”
At the time, the total for the Astros-Cubs May 30 tilt was in the neighborhood of nine runs, but closed at a staggering 13 once word made its way around betting circles about the aforementioned uptick in wind. The Cubs and Astros combined for five runs in the first inning and had 14 on the board by the top of the seventh for a solid, no-effort cash that would go towards a steak dinner for myself and the guy kind enough to tip me off about the Chicago weather.
The moral of the story? When betting any MLB totals, especially games at Wrigley Field, it is of the utmost importance to study the wind direction before walking up to the counter. No park in baseball is more affected by the wind than Wrigley, but that’s not to say others don’t benefit from it as well.
Two good websites to consult include Baseball-Weather.com and DailyBaseballData.com, as well as the usual suspects like Weather.com. Just be sure you beat the inevitable line move.
Funny anecdote: Bear with me here, as I just had to tell this story. The same guy mentioned above who tipped me off about the wind at Wrigley took a home run missile shot off his right shoulder during this showdown while standing in the centerfield bleachers spending more time running his mouth and drinking beer than paying attention to the game. I saw it happen on television and rewound the play no fewer than 25 times.
The short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
At a distance of 314 feet from home plate, the right field wall at Yankee Stadium is the third-shortest RF wall in the majors, save for where the Boston Red Sox (302 feet) and San Francisco Giants (309 feet) play their home games.
But the thing about San Francisco is that between the wind and the enormous height of AT&T Park’s right field wall, very few home runs sail over that section of the fence. That’s certainly not the case in the Bronx, where left-handed pull hitters have been mashing on a consistent basis for quite some time.
Over the last three years, left-handed hitters at Yankee Stadium combined for .371 isolated power when hitting to right field, with 40.1 percent of their fly balls soaring over the fence. Both of those statistics lead all of Major League Baseball by a mile.
So what does that tell us? When handicapping games at Yankee Stadium, be especially weary of right-handed, fly-ball pitchers, but look to target left-handed power lineups.
Retractable roofs (6 teams)
Major League Baseball currently features six organizations (Arizona, Houston, Miami, Milwaukee, Seattle, and Toronto) that own a retractable roof stadium. Here’s a look at how many plate appearances per home run it takes for these clubs when playing outdoors as opposed to when they play indoors:
Arizona Diamondbacks: 44.5 PA/HR outdoors, 41.5 PA/HR indoors
Houston Astros: 33.1 PA/HR outdoors, 23.5 PA/HR indoors
Miami Marlins: 42.2 PA/HR outdoors, 42.5 PA/HR indoors
Milwaukee Brewers: 46.2 PA/HR outdoors, 37.7 PA/HR indoors
Seattle Mariners: 31.7 PA/HR outdoors, 37.9 PA/HR indoors
Toronto Blue Jays: 35.9 PA/HR outdoors, 26.1 PA/HR indoors
Notice anything interesting here? Four of the aforementioned clubs (Arizona, Houston, Milwaukee and Toronto) hit home runs at a much more frequent pace when playing indoors as opposed to outdoors. Miami is pretty much a push while Seattle proves to be the outlier in this situation.
Bettors who are looking to wager on MLB totals played in games with a retractable roof stadium need to know as soon as possible whether or not said roof will be open or closed come first pitch.
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