The Bum's Sports Page For Friday July 10th Best Bets-Trends-News !

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MLB

Friday, July 10


Small chance of thunderstorms in Kansas City

According to weather forecasts, there is a small 58 percent possibility of thunderstorms in Kansas City when the Royals host the Toronto Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium Friday evening.

MLB site dailybaseballdata.com shows as much as a 49 percent chance leading up the game with as much as a 58 percent possibility during gametime.

Marco Estrada and Danny Duffy are probable starters for Toronto and Kansas City respectively. Oddsmakers have the Jays as -108 road faves and the total at 8.5.


Big Under day ends Tigers' impressive streak

The Detroit Tigers incredible streak of games going Over the total came to an end in Minnesota as the final scoreline finished Under the closing number of 8 Thursday. The Tigers defeated the Twins 4-2 ending their streak of Overs at 19 - the longest such streak dating as far back as our records show (1999).

Overall, it was a huge day for Under bets. Eight of the 10 MLB games on Thursday's board finished under the total giving the Under a razor-thin 609-605 edge season to date.

Per usual, there is a full slate of MLB action on the board Friday. If the Tigers are to chalk up another in the Over column, they'll have to do it with a total of 8.5 on the board in Minnesota.

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MLB

Friday, July 10


Rangers' lefty Rodriguez struggling at home

Texas Rangers left-hander Wandy Rodriguez might be fourth in our MLB starting pitcher money standings, but the 36-year-old has yet to record a victory at home this season.

Rodriguez is 0-4 in six starts (the Rangers are 2-4 in those games) and has a 7.42 ERA in front of the home fans. Opposing batters are hitting .336 off the southpaw thanks to 45 hits allowed in just 30 1/3 innings of work.

He'll give it another shot Friday evening with the San Diego Padres in town. The Rangers are presently -137 while the Padres are +126 with Ian Kennedy scheduled to start.


Hot betting trend in Jeff Kellogg's games

Over bets have gone 5-0 the last five ball games that umpire Jeff Kellogg has worked behind home plate. Kellogg will be working the plate at Coors Field when the Colorado Rockies host the Atlanta Braves Friday evening.

The recent run of Overs has moved the Over/Under record to 7-7 in games that Kellogg has worked behind the plate this season. There has been an average of 13.8 runs scored in those five games, but that is significantly skewed courtesy a 13-10 Toronto Blue Jays victory over the Boston Red Sox back on June 12.

Shelby Miller is probable to start for the Braves while Colorado's starter is currently undecided.

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CFL

Friday, July 10


Als struggling to cash bets versus Bombers

The Montreal Alouettes have gone 0-4 against the spread in their previous four meetings with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers heading into their matchup Friday evening.

The Als' futility versus the Bombers includes both matchups last season and the final pair of three meetings during the 2013 regular season.

Montreal (1-1 straight up, 1-1 ATS) are presently 3-point road underdogs in Winnipeg (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS).


Eskimos finally record an ATS win for faves

Thanks to a 46-17 victory over the Ottawa RedBlacks as 6-point home favorites, the Edmonton Eskimos become the first favorite to cash this CFL season.

Underdogs had gone 7-0 against the spread (one matchup closed as a Pick) in the first two weeks of the season, making for some interesting betting trends north of the border.

Ottawa was responsible for two of those wins for the dogs as the second-year franchise won both of their games straight up before being demolished by the Eskimos.

There are a pair of games on the CFL docket on Friday as the Winnipeg Blue Bombers host the Montreal Alouettes as 3-point home favorites and the Saskatchewan Rough Riders visit the BC Lions as 3-point road dogs.

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Friday's Tip Sheet

July 10, 2015


Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Indians | 7:10 p.m. EST

For those who like riding youngsters that have been enjoying much success over the course of the campaign, then this series opener between the A’s and Tribe might be your game of choice this evening. On the home side, you have the emerging 25-year-old Danny Salazar (7-4, 4.10 ERA), who has always exhibited flashes of extensive dominance since coming up in the latter end of 2013, and despite enduring a humbling stint in the minor leagues last year, he’s been enjoying success for the most part this season. While his ERA is probably higher than the club anticipated, he’s pitched mostly better than that, as he did hold a 3.54 ERA only a couple of weeks ago. Either way, Salazar holds a very impressive 108/25 K/BB ratio in only 90 innings, good for a 10.80 K/9 tally, which ranks as one of baseball’s best marks. His ceiling still remains higher.

Opposing him is someone even younger, 24-year-old Kendall Graveman (6-4, 3.16 ERA), who has quickly turned his season around in remarkable fashion after a disastrous first month to begin his Major League career. The fact that his ERA is already that low is pretty incredible in itself, when you take into account that it was as high as 8.27 at the very end of April. It was at that point when he was actually sent down to the minor leagues, but since being recalled, though, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his nine starts, eight of which registered as official quality ones. He’s certainly figured something out, especially when you take a look at his past six outings. The rookie right-hander has gone seven innings or more in all six, while yielding two runs or less, and hasn’t allowed any runs at all in his past couple of assignments, spanning 14 innings. With all of this in mind, Graveman could be a sneaky +140 play as a road ’dog.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins | 8:10 p.m. EST

It really wasn’t long ago at all when Justin Verlander (0-2, 6.75 ERA) was easily cruising through any lineup that was set before him, regularly doing so every five days. That would be in reference to the 2011-2012 era of Major League Baseball, where Verlander was on top of the world, even winning both the AL MVP and Cy Young awards in ’11. Since then, however, Verlander has fallen, with injuries playing a role in his decline, and that’s why he only made his season debut about a month ago. He’s shown some signs of the old Verlander, like when he limited a solid Pirates lineup to two runs in six innings, but he’s also surrendered six runs or more in two of his four outings, hence his ugly ERA at the moment. In the process, he’s also allowed a whopping six home runs, and his K/BB ratio does not look good either, sitting at 12/10 in 22.2 innings. Will Verlander even get near where he once was? The linesmakers have set the over/under at 8.5, and remember, Detroit just recently had one of the greatest ‘over’ streaks in history, winning such bets in a remarkable 19 consecutive games, before it was snapped last night in game one of this series.

Tonight’s starter for the opposing Twins, Ervin Santana (0-0, 2.25 ERA), only recently made his season debut as well. In fact, it was just five days ago when Minnesota’s biggest free-agent pickup entering 2015 was on the mound for the club for the first time this campaign. This was because Santana was tagged with an 80-game suspension that was related to PEDs shortly before Opening Day, and now that we’re at the halfway point, the Twins are free to finally unleash their prized signing from this past offseason. To the veteran’s credit, he churned out a very impressive debut with his new team on Sunday, holding the Royals -- one of baseball’s best offenses -- to two runs over eight sharp innings, scattering three hits and three walks, while striking out eight. That’s just how Minnesota could have drawn it up, and they’ll hope he can duplicate that performance in his second outing against another hard-hitting lineup, which also happens to still be missing Miguel Cabrera. Santana and the Twins are -125 favorites in tonight’s affair.

Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants | 10:15 p.m. EST

His days virtually numbered in a Philadelphia Phillies uniform, Cole Hamels (5-6, 3.02 ERA) is looking to go out strong before he is inevitably dealt to a Major League contender in the coming weeks. After all, Hamels will probably go down as one of the greatest Phillies starting pitchers in the somewhat storied history of their franchise, so we could be winding down to his final hurrah. Although his team is decisively saddled with the label of being the worst team in baseball, Hamels has been enjoying one of his finest seasons to date, as he’s really been as consistent as anybody when you look at his game log. The ten-year veteran -- with all of those years being spent in Philadelphia, remember -- has a splendid 119/35 K/BB ratio in his 113.1 innings of work, while giving up two runs or less in 12 of 17 starts. With a potential duel with last year’s World Series MVP on tap, odds are Hamels will be looking forward to this particular assignment, perhaps making him a solid bet getting +150 odds.

Toeing the rubber for the Giants, of course, is their own elite southpaw ace Madison Bumgarner (8-5, 3.34 ERA), who, like Hamels, is having another standout season. In fact, he’s been good enough to, unlike Hamels, make this year’s NL All-Star team (although you could very easily argue that Hamels was one of the biggest snubs this year, having an All-Star-caliber campaign). Bumgarner has seemingly picked up where he left off from last year’s postseason, possessing a 114/21 K/BB ratio in 113.1 innings (ironically, the same exact amount of innings as Hamels!), and has lived up to his reputation of being a much better home pitcher, with a 2.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and .219 BAA in nine starts at AT&T Park compared to a 4.33 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and .255 BAA in eight outings on the road. Understandably, the over/under has opened at a miniscule 6, but there is a chance it could up to 6.5 leading up to first-pitch.

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LEADING OFF: Cole for 13th W; Cubs-White Sox; Red Sox-Yanks

July 10, 2015

A look at what's happening all around the major leagues today:

ALL-STAR BOUND

Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole (12-3) makes his final start before heading to his first All-Star Game, where he could be named the NL starter. Cole is 7-1 with a 2.19 ERA in his last nine starts. He faces Lance Lynn (6-4) and the Cardinals.

SOUTH SIDE-NORTH SIDE

The Cubs and White Sox close out the first half with a Chicago rivalry series at Wrigley Field. White Sox rookie lefty Carlos Rodon (3-2) starts the opener against Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks (4-4). Rodon is limiting left-handed batters to a .209 average with no homers and 24 strikeouts.

ON A ROLL

Oakland's Kendall Graveman (6-4) is 5-2 with a 1.78 ERA in nine starts since he was recalled from Triple-A Nashville on May 23. He faces Cleveland and Danny Salazar (7-4).

READY FOR REBOUND

Clay Buchholz gave up 10 runs - nine earned - in his lone start this season against the Yankees on April 12, and Boston quickly fell into last place in the AL East. Well, the right-hander had been terrific over his last 10 starts and the Red Sox have finally turned things around, winning eight of 10 and a season-high four in a row, moving 5 1/2 games back of division-leading New York. Alex Rodriguez is batting .474 with a homer and nine RBIs against Buchholz.

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Baseball Capsules

July 9, 2015

MIAMI (AP) Jose Fernandez pitched seven innings and tied the modern record for most consecutive home victories by a starter to begin a career, helping the Miami Marlins beat the Cincinnati Reds 2-0 Thursday.

Fernandez won for the second time in two outings since his return from Tommy John surgery. He allowed six hits, struck out nine and improved to 14-0 in 22 career starts at Marlins Park.

The only other pitcher since 1914 to win his first 14 home decisions as a starter was Johnny Allen of the Yankees in 1932-33, according to STATS. Fernandez lowered his ERA at home to 1.17.

All-Star Dee Gordon stole three bases, scored both runs and broke the Marlins record for hits before the All-Star break with 119. Miami snapped a four-game losing streak.

Michael Lorenzen (3-4) went six innings and allowed two runs - too many against Fernandez.

ROYALS 8, RAYS 3

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) - Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez hit two-run homers, Yordano Ventura went five innings in his return from the disabled list, and the Royals beat the Rays to finish off a four-game sweep.

Ventura (4-6) allowed three runs and four hits and three walks, striking out four. It was his first start since June 12, when an elbow condition began causing numbness in his hand.

Eric Hosmer, Cheslor Cuthbert and Kendrys Morales also drove in runs off Nathan Karns (4-5).

CARDINALS 4, PIRATES 1

PITTSBURGH (AP) - Carlos Martinez made his case for inclusion on the National League All-Star team by pitching 7 1-3 scoreless innings, and the Cardinals beat the Pirates in a matchup between the teams with the best records in the major leagues.

Martinez (10-3) scattered four hits while striking out five and walking three in improving to 7-1 with a 1.20 ERA in his last 10 starts.

The right-hander is one of the five players contending for the NL's All-Star Final Vote. Fan voting ends Friday afternoon and the game will be played Tuesday at Cincinnati.

St. Louis (56-31) opened a 5 1/2-game lead on the Pirates in the NL Central. Pittsburgh (50-35) had its five-game winning streak snapped.

The Cardinals did their scoring in the fifth inning on two-run singles by Matt Carpenter - with one out - and Yadier Molina and out later. Both hits were off Jeff Locke (5-5).

WHITE SOX 2, BLUE JAYS 0

CHICAGO (AP) - Jeff Samardzija had a four-hitter, Melky Cabrera homered and the White Sox shut out the Blue Jays.

Samardzija (6-4) took a no-hitter into the sixth inning for a second straight game. It was his first complete game of the season. He struck out Toronto slugger Jose Bautista to end the 2 hour, 15-minute game and threw 108 pitches.

Toronto's R.A. Dickey (3-10) allowed two runs and four hits in seven innings.

The White Sox, who had just five hits, have won eight of 10.

YANKEES 6, ATHLETICS 2

NEW YORK (AP) - Masahiro Tanaka allowed two hits over 7 2-3 innings, Brett Gardner hit a first-inning home run and learned midgame he had been picked for his first All-Star team, and the Yankees rallied past the Athletics.

Cole Figueroa doubled twice in his Yankees debut. Jacoby Ellsbury had a tiebreaking, two-run single.

Tanaka (5-3) ended a four-start winless streak, the longest drought of his 1 1/2-year major league career. He set season highs for innings and pitches (114), striking out six and walking one. One of the runs off him was unearned.

Jesse Chavez (4-9) lost for the first time in six appearances against the Yankees, giving up four runs and seven hits in five innings. He is winless in his past three starts.(backslash)

TIGERS 4, TWINS 2

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) - Ian Kinsler had a leadoff homer, a double and three RBIs to back David Price's eight innings as Detroit beat Minnesota.

Price (9-2) struck out eight in his final start before going to the All-Star Game. He allowed five hits and two unearned runs.

Yoenis Cespedes added two hits and an RBI for the Tigers. Joakim Soria earned his 20th save in 22 chances.

Mike Pelfrey (5-6) gave up four runs and eight hits in 7 2-3 innings for Minnesota. Torii Hunter had a base hit and an RBI, but the Twins had their three-game winning streak snapped.

Kinsler hit the second pitch of the game into the left-field seats, his 32nd career leadoff homer.

INDIANS 3, ASTROS 1

CLEVELAND (AP) - Rookie right-hander Cody Anderson pitched three-hit ball into the seventh inning against Houston, his latest splendid performance for Cleveland.

Making his fourth major league start, Anderson (2-1) allowed Hank Conger's leadoff homer in the third but little else in 6 2-3 innings. Anderson has given up three earned runs in 30 1-3 innings for a 0.89 ERA since being called up from Triple-A Columbus on June 21.

Brett Oberholtzer (2-2) took a shutout into the sixth before the Indians scored three times. Touted rookie Francisco Lindor tied the game with a leadoff homer. Ryan Raburn's RBI double put the Indians ahead, and Carlos Santana's triple made it 3-1.

Cody Allen allowed a single and a walk in the ninth, but retired Evan Gattis on a popup for his 18th save.

Cleveland took three of four from the AL West leaders.

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Pete Rose hopes to meet commissioner

July 9, 2015

CINCINNATI (AP) Hits king Pete Rose says he's ''open to almost anything'' that Commissioner Rob Manfred might have in mind for reinstatement when they discuss his lifetime ban for betting on baseball.

The former Cincinnati Reds player and manager hopes to meet Manfred - who took over for Bud Selig in January - when the two are in town next week for the All-Star Game at Great American Ball Park. Rose says they'll meet again at some point to discuss his case.

Asked what he'd like to see Manfred decide, Rose said during a conference call on Thursday that ''when you're in my situation, you're open to almost anything.''

Rose will be honored on the field with other former stars before the game on Tuesday.

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Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

What college football expert Phil Steele thinks about the ACC Atlantic Division

7) Wake Forest-- Have only six seniors on whole squad, their least since WWII.

6) Syracuse-- My man Les Miles brings LSU to the Carrier Dome Sept 26.

5) Boston College-- Lost to Clemson/Florida State LY by total of seven points.

4) NC State-- Have 15 starters back this year, including a senior QB.

3) Louisville-- Petrino returns to Georgia Dome, plays Auburn in opener.

2) Clemson-- New OC, lost 29 lettermen but have QB and top four rushers back.

1) Florida State-- Went 13-1 LY, 3-11 vs spread; who will the QB be?

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here......

13) RIP Kenny Stabler, the great Oakland QB who died this week at age 69.

Stabler came into the NFL when QB's sat and learned before they started; he became the Oakland starter in 1973, his 4th NFL season, but once he started, all he did was win-- he was 69-26-1 with the Raiders, winning Super Bowl XXI. He also played for the Saints/Oilers, but will be forever remembered as John Madden's quarterback.

12) Baxter Holmes of ESPN.com wrote an article about why NBA players get hurt so much; it is interesting reading. Four reasons why basketball players get hurt a lot:

-- Worse sleeping habits-- According to a sleep expert, the "blue light" that is emitted from televisions, computer screens, tablets and smartphones suppresses the body's attempt to produce melatonin, a hormone that helps induce sleep.

-- Weaker bones-- Washington Post reports that Americans on average drank 37 percent less milk in 2014 than in 1970. Milk helps stengthen bones. Instead of milk, people are drinking more sugary drinks and that ain't good for your bones.

-- More wear and tear at a young age-- This one is simple; really good players now play too many games. AAU, summer league then the regular season. In AAU, a team might play three games in one day and it takes its toll over time.

-- Weaker muscles-- Less traditional weight training now and more "functional training" which focuses on the body's core and flexibility. Less weight training equals weaker muscles, which can cause more injuries.

11) Utah Jazz hosted a 3-night summer league this week that averaged over 10,000 fans a night for a doubleheader of games. Thats a lot of people for summer league.

10) Luke Ridnour got traded four times in a week, then Toronto released him Thursday; it is enough to make a guy change careers.

9) Jeremy Lin signs with Charlotte for two years, $4M; Hornets will be his fifth NBA team in his six years in the league.

8) My final take on the DeAndre Jordan fiasco: He is entitled to play anywhere he wants to, but he should've called Mark Cuban and explained things- it is how adults do business and the NBA is big business.

As for Dallas, they're probably better off without him.

7) How are Johnny Cueto/Clayton Kershaw not All-Stars? Anyone? Game is in Cincinnati; Cueto should be on the NL team.

6) As for the Home Run Derby, it is stupid that Yoenis Cespedes isn't there to defend the title he won the last two years. HR Derby shouldn't just be guys who make the All-Star team, they should be for the best home run hitters.

5) Huston Street hurt his leg, which cripples the Angels' bullpen, so the All-Star break may be coming just in time for Mike Scioscia.

4) If you wagered on the Atlanta-Colorado game last night, you should've checked the weather first. Colorado starter Kendrick threw a scoreless first inning with eight pitches thrown, then the rains came after Alex Wood threw two pitches in the bottom of the first, resulting in a two-hour rain delay.

Neither pitcher continued after the delay but since both pitchers threw a pitch, you were stuck with your bet, a game struggling Colorado won 5-3.

3) I got some e-mails yesterday telling me that David Ortiz playing 1B for Boston was more about Mike Napoli's struggles than Hanley Ramirez' defense. Brock Holt is a supersub, but can only sub at one position a day and 2B Pedroia is hurt.

2) Royals lose Alex Gordon for eight weeks with a muscle tear; Mets lose young pitcher Stephen Matz with a lat problem- thats at least a three-week deal.

1) I'm looking forward to seeing AAU basketball later this month in Las Vegas; the Fab 48 tournament and an adidas tournament. We'll have writeups on the games and kids we see as basketball recruiting season hits its summer peak.

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AAC college football betting preview: Cincy pegged as fave with big season on the horizon

The American Athletic Conference goes through another shakeup in its third season as Navy joins the mix to increase the membership to 12 teams. Cincinnati is the fave to win the conference, but with Memphis, Temple and UCF in the fold, there is value in the AAC.

Steve Merril looks at all 12 AAC teams and give season win total picks for each heading into the 2015 campaign.

Central Florida Knights (2014: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +700
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Knights: Central Florida has dominated conference opponents by going an impressive 15-1 over the last two seasons. The Knights have won back-to-back conference championships, and they’ll be in contention once again this season. Quarterback Justin Holman returns for his junior season after throwing for 2,952 yards with 23 touchdowns in 2014.

Why not bet the Knights: Despite Central Florida’s recent league domination, they have new coordinators on both sides of the ball. They also lost their top four wide receivers and all four of their starting defensive backs. Overall, Central Florida has the fewest returning starters (9) in the American Athletic Conference, so inexperience could be their undoing in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 7


Cincinnati Bearcats (2014: 9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +260
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Bearcats: Cincinnati is poised for a big season in 2015. The Bearcats’ offense is loaded, and they return eight starters from last year’s team that averaged 34 points per game. Quarterback Gunner Kiel returns after throwing for 3,254 yards and a school record 31 touchdown passes in 2014.

Why not bet the Bearcats: Defense. Cincinnati’s stop unit regressed last season, allowing 27.2 points and 439 yards per game. They only gave up 21 points and 316 yards per game the season before. They return just five defensive starters this season, so they will need to improve dramatically if they want to win double digit games in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 7


Connecticut Huskies (2014: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +8000
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Huskies: Bob Diaco will begin his second year at Connecticut, so the Huskies should improve some. They return 14 starters, including eight starters on a defense that was better than the season before. Connecticut’s defense could keep them in some games this season, so they could be live when getting a lot of points as an underdog.

Why not bet the Huskies: The offense is a major concern. Connecticut only averaged 15.5 points on 276 yards of total offense per game last season. The quarterback position doesn’t have a lot of experience, so another poor offensive season is quite likely. The road schedule is brutal as well, so there’s not a lot to like about Connecticut heading into the 2015 season.

Season win total pick: Under 3


East Carolina Pirates (2014: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +900
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Pirates: East Carolina has a successful program as they’ve made a bowl game in eight of the last nine seasons. The Pirates have won eight games or more in each of the last three years, and they’ll be in contention to extend that streak to four.

Why not bet the Pirates: The Pirates return just eleven starters overall, and they have a new offensive coordinator in Dave Nichol. East Carolina also has to replace a pair of offensive standouts, QB Shane Carden and WR Justin Hardy, so Nichol’s job won’t be easy. Out of conference games at Florida and at BYU don’t help either, so the Pirates have some question marks coming into this season.

Season win total pick: Over 7


South Florida Bulls (2014: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5500
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Bulls: South Florida is in their third season under head coach Willie Taggart, so there’s a chance they could improve upon their 4 wins from a season ago. The Bulls should see defensive improvement, especially since they are switching to a 4-2-5 scheme that fits their personnel well.

Why not bet the Bulls: The team returns just 4 offensive starters, and under Taggart, the Bulls have only averaged 13.8 and 17.2 points per game. Overall, South Florida’s program has been in decline over the last four seasons, and there’s nothing to suggest a reversal of form will be seen in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 4


Temple Owls (2014: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +400
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Owls: Temple returns 19 starters from a team that went 6-6 last season. The Owls have an excellent defense, and they should be the best in the AAC. Temple returns ten starters on a stop unit that only gave up 17.5 points per game last season. With 15 seniors on the two deep, Temple is set to have their best season in quite awhile.

Why not bet the Owls: Temple’s offense needs to get better. The Owls only averaged 308 yards per game last season, and they scored 20 points or less in their last seven games. In conference play, Temple was -69.5 yards per game, and that’s a direct reflection of their poor offense. If the scoring unit fails to improve, Temple will be a .500 team once again.

Season win total pick: Over 7


Houston Cougars (2014: 8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +825
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Cougars: Houston has some things pointing in their direction for a solid 2015 season. The Cougars return quarterback Greg Ward who completed 67.3 percent of his passes while throwing for 2,010 yards and 12 touchdowns in only eight games. Houston’s defense is good as well; the Cougars have given up just 21.8 and 20.6 points per game over their last two seasons.

Why not bet the Cougars: Houston has a whole new coaching staff this season. Head coach Tom Herman comes over from Ohio State where he was the offensive coordinator. Major Applewhite is the new offensive coordinator while Craig Naivar and Todd Orlando will co-coordinate the defense. With new schemes on both sides of the ball, Houston may not play-up to their talent level in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 8


Memphis Tigers (2014: 10-3 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +350
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Tigers: Justin Fuente and Darrell Dickey’s offensive system exploded last season as Memphis averaged 36.2 points per game. The Tigers should roll along again in 2015 as eight offensive starters return, including QB Paxton Lynch who threw for 3,031 yards with 22 touchdown passes.

Why not bet the Tigers: Memphis came out of nowhere to win 10 games last season, and teams that fit that profile usually regress the following season. The Tigers’ defense was good last year (19.5 ppg), but that unit only returns three starters while losing coordinator Barry Odom to Missouri. Memphis’ season will hinge on their defense, and if they falter, the Tigers will be a .500 team at best.

Season win total pick: Under 8


Navy Midshipmen (2014: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1300
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Midshipmen: Navy runs the triple option offense, and it’s difficult to stop, especially for teams that haven’t seen it before and only have a week to prepare. The Midshipmen are affiliated with a league for the first time in 124 years, and they’ll have a major advantage over their opponents this season as none of them will have a bye prior to playing Navy. Senior QB Keenan Reynolds returns, so the Midshipmen will be a formidable team this season.

Why not bet the Midshipmen: Navy’s defense has been vulnerable to high-scoring, athletic offenses and they’ll face their fair share in the AAC this season. Their late schedule isn’t ideal either as they have to play at Memphis and at Houston in a 20-day span. If the Midshipmen can’t play consistent defense, their promising season will get derailed.

Season win total pick: Over 7


SMU Mustangs (2014: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5000
Season win total: 2

Why bet the Mustangs: SMU returns 16 starters this season after winning just one game in 2014. There’s nowhere to go but up for the Mustangs, so they should be a much better team this season. New head coach Chad Morris is a proven offensive guru as his Clemson’s offenses averaged 37.3 points per game over the last three years.

Why not bet the Mustangs: The Mustangs were embarrassingly bad on offense last year. They averaged just 11.1 points per game, and their average loss came by 30 points per game overall, and 22 points per game in conference play. New systems take time to develop, and unless SMU’s offense improves dramatically, they’ll finish with a losing record once again in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 2


Tulane Green Wave (2014: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3700
Season win total: 5

Why bet the Green Wave: Tulane is in their fourth season under Curtis Johnson, and they return 16 starters, so there are some positives. The Green Wave will win with their defense, a unit that allowed a respectable 28.4 points and 388 yards per game in 2014. Those numbers aren’t bad considering they only went 3-9 SU last season. If the defense improves some, Tulane can be a sticky underdog this year.

Why not bet the Green Wave: Tulane has serious issues on offense. The unit only averaged 16 points per game last season, and they’ve averaged 347 yards per game or less in all three years under Johnson. The Green Wave scored a total of 16 points in their last three games of the 2014 season. If the offense doesn’t get significantly better, Tulane will be in the basement once again in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 5


Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2014: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +4000
Season win total: 5

Why bet the Golden Hurricane: Tulsa returns 16 starters in the first year of new head coach Philip Montgomery. He was Baylor’s offensive coordinator for the last three years, so he will implement a similar offense at Tulsa. The offense did average 24.7 points per game in 2014, so they could be even better under Montgomery’s schemes.

Why not bet the Golden Hurricane: The Golden Hurricane come in off a 2-win season, and while there’s nowhere to go but up, the team still lacks much talent. After winning 29 games from 2010-2012, Tulsa is just 5-19 over the last two seasons. It will take time for Montgomery to get the right players to fit his schemes, so 2015 figures to be a rebuilding season for Tulsa.

Season win total pick: Under 5