The Bum's Sports Page For Friday June 26th Best Bets-Trends-News !

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Braves (35-37) at Pirates (40-31)
Game: 1
Venue: PNC Park
Date: June 26, 2015 7:05 PM EDT

The Atlanta Braves have enjoyed a surprising season from Williams Perez, but another strong showing Friday night from the right-hander could be wasted behind their slumping offense.

The same problem could arise for the Pittsburgh Pirates, who will turn to Francisco Liriano when they welcome the Braves to PNC Park.

Perez (4-0, 2.78 ERA) has impressed for much of his rookie season with Atlanta (35-38) and still managed to secure a win Saturday despite a subpar showing, allowing four runs in six innings of a 6-4 victory against the New York Mets.

"He settled down, but he wasn't the same Perez," manager Fredi Gonzalez told MLB's official website. "He hit two batters and his command wasn't as good as we've seen it."

Perez, who has a 2.14 ERA in seven starts, had previously allowed no earned runs in two consecutive wins and yielded one or no runs in five of six outings.

His only shaky performance in that time came against Pittsburgh (40-32), which scored four runs and drew five walks in five innings off Perez en route to a 10-8 win June 5. Neil Walker did most of the damage with a three-run home run and Francisco Cervelli went 2 for 3.

Liriano (4-6, 3.26) also struggled on Saturday, allowing five runs in a 6-0 loss to Washington, but now returns home, where he dominated the Chicago White Sox with eight shutout innings in his last appearance.

That's been atypical for the left-hander, as he owns a 4.35 ERA at PNC Park compared with a 2.30 on the road.

Considering Pittsburgh's recent trend, Liriano may also suffer from lack of run support. The Pirates have dropped five of six and totaled nine runs in those defeats, the most productive of which came in Thursday's 5-4 loss to Cincinnati in 13 innings.

Two of those runs were driven in by starter A.J. Burnett.

'We missed some opportunities tonight in some different areas,' manager Clint Hurdle said. " ... We hit some balls hard, couldn't find some grass."

Andrew McCutchen has reached safely in four straight with three doubles and a home run in that span, but Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte are a combined 6 for 40 in their last six games.

Atlanta's struggles at the plate have been even worse. The Braves were swept out of Washington and scored only two runs over the three-game set, including a 7-0 loss Thursday.

Jace Peterson went 0 for 13 in the series and the Braves posted a .555 OPS while failing to pick up the slack for Freddie Freeman, who's been on the disabled list since Tuesday with a right wrist contusion.

'We'd love to have him,' Peterson said. 'But at the end of the day, he's not here and we're still capable. We just need to play better.'

The Braves were also shut out in their last meeting with Pittsburgh, falling 3-0 on June 7, and did not face Liriano during that series.

Chris Johnson, Kelly Johnson and Cameron Maybin are a combined 0 for 16 against Liriano. Only Nick Markakis has had luck with Liriano, going 6 for 17.


SERIES AT A GLANCE

GAME 1
Braves at Pirates
Fri, Jun 26 - 7:05PM EDT

GAME 2
Braves at Pirates
Sat, Jun 27 - 4:05PM EDT

GAME 3
Braves at Pirates
Sun, Jun 28 - 1:35PM EDT

[StarDust Bum]

MLB plans to open 2nd replay center in San Francisco

June 25, 2015

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Major League Baseball plans to open a second replay center in San Francisco.

MLB opened a replay center at MLB Advanced Media's office in New York in 2008 and expanded it in 2014.

Speaking Thursday at AT&T Park, Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred said the sport will expand its facility at MLBAM's San Francisco office, located near the ballpark.

''At some point you want to have redundancy, meaning if New York goes down, there's someplace else you can go,'' Manfred said. ''The proximity to the Silicon Valley for a technology company like MLB Advanced Media is very important, and it just makes sense in terms of the economics to do it where we have an existing facility.''

He said the new replay room is in the planning stages and there was no firm date for it to open.

MLB plans to close its Western Operations office in Phoenix, which opened in 2005.

Manfred also addressed the ballpark situation in Oakland, saying it was in the interests of baseball to keep the team where it is. A's owner Lew Wolff has been campaigning for a stadium in the San Jose area, which would require three-fourths of the owners to agree to a change in territorial rights.

''The fundamental goal is to help the A's get a new facility, which they desperately need, in Oakland,'' Manfred said. ''It's a long process and it's a difficult process, but progress is being made. The A's preference is for the Coliseum site. I see a new facility that is really, really successful.''

Manfred also said that Portland, Montreal and Charlotte ''have all checked in recently'' regarding potential expansion, a possibility that could come in the near future.

''People being interested in having a franchise is an indication of the health and popularity of the game,'' Manfred said. ''In terms of expansion I do not see this as a short term interest, but I do believe we have a strong and growing business and over the longer haul strong and growing businesses often expand.''

Manfred met with Giants players and manager Bruce Bochy.

''We talked baseball,'' Bochy said. ''The players brought up scheduling. He said it was a work in process and that he understands the players' complaints. It's something to look at and needs to be changed.''

The Giants were upset with having to play a night game in New York and then playing the next night in San Francisco.

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Sky (4-3) at Fever (3-5)

Date: June 26, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

Elena Delle Donne had one of the best performances in WNBA history in leading the Chicago Sky to a thrilling win her last time out.

She could be on her way to another high-scoring outing in a matchup with the defensively challenged Indiana Fever, that is, if she doesn't end up on the bench with her team well ahead like the last time they met.

Delle Donne looks to lead the high-powered Sky to a third win of the season over the Fever on Friday night in Indianapolis.

Delle Donne recorded the sixth-highest point total with a career-best 45 in Wednesday's 100-96 overtime win over Atlanta. She finished six shy of the league record but set one WNBA mark by making 19 consecutive free throws.

Delle Donne is one of the league's top foul shooters at 97.1 percent and is averaging a WNBA-best 31.6 points. She's already racked up 221 points, the most through seven games in league history.

Against the Dream, Delle Donne also came up big defensively, blocking a late 3-point attempt by Angel McCoughtry as the Sky (4-3) won back-to-back games for the first time.

'We just wanted to win,' said Delle Donne, who had 11 rebounds for a third consecutive double-double. 'At this point, being 3-3, we wanted to show that we could be consistent and put two wins together. So, that was the biggest focus. It wasn't even about who the opponent was or what happened in that last game. We needed a win, and we were desperate for one.'

Half of Chicago's wins have come against Indiana (3-5), and they've both been blowouts. That shouldn't come as a surprise considering the Sky are the league's highest-scoring team at 88.4 points per game and the Fever are allowing a league-worst 82.5.

In the season opener, Delle Donne had 31 points as Chicago outscored Indiana 50-32 in the paint in a 95-72 victory June 5. The Sky dominated again in Indiana nine days later, building a 32-point halftime lead in a 98-72 win. Delle Donne sat most of the fourth quarter with the outcome already decided, finishing with 24 points in 25 minutes. She has played at least 33 minutes in every other game.

The Fever followed that embarrassing defeat with consecutive wins before losing to Washington 87-75 on Saturday. Briann January and Lynetta Kizer had 14 points apiece for Indiana, which allowed the Mystics to shoot 51.7 percent and make 10 of 22 from 3-point range.

"We can't be late to our coverages. We can't miss our coverages. We have to be there," coach Stephanie White said. "We might be a step slow, but we have to get there."

With one more meeting - in Chicago on Aug. 4 - Indiana is in danger of losing a season series to the Sky for the first time.


WNBA HEAD TO HEAD

Jun 14, 2015 Score ATS Results

CHI « 98 Cover: 23
IND 72 Over: 170
Tools:

Jun 5, 2015 Score ATS Results
IND 72 Over: 167
CHI « 95 Cover: 16.5
Tools: Recaps

Sep 3, 2014 Score ATS Results
CHI « 75 Cover: 17
IND 62 Under: 137
Tools:

Sep 1, 2014 Score ATS Results
IND 84 Cover: 1
CHI « 86 Over: 170
Tools:

Aug 30, 2014 Score ATS Results
CHI 70 Under: 147
IND « 77 Cover: 3
Tools: Recaps

Aug 16, 2014 Score ATS Results
CHI 67 Under: 138
IND « 71 Cover: 0.5
Tools:

Jul 22, 2014 Score ATS Results
IND 57 Under: 117
CHI « 60 Cover: 6.5
Tools: Recaps

Jul 17, 2014 Score ATS Results
CHI 64 Under: 146
IND « 82 Cover: 13
Tools: Recaps

Jun 20, 2014 Score ATS Results
IND « 83 Cover: 11.5
CHI 75 Over: 158
Tools: Recaps

May 16, 2014 Score ATS Results
IND 71 Over: 145
CHI « 74 Cover: 1
Tools: Recaps

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Sparks (0-5) at Sun (6-1)

Date: June 26, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

The Connecticut Sun have continued to shine without their best player and sent the even more short-handed Los Angeles Sparks to their worst start in franchise history in their most recent game.

The Sparks will have one key player back for Friday night's rematch and could have another on the floor when they visit the Sun, who seek to match their longest win streak in seven years.

With another victory over Los Angeles, Connecticut (6-1) will tie its seven-game win streak from July 20-Sept. 5, 2008, and secure its best start since winning eight of its first nine contests that same season. The Sun also began 8-1 in 2005.

They have moved to the verge of these feats without reigning rookie of the year Chiney Ogwumike, who is out for the season while recovering from right knee surgery. With their top scorer and rebounder from 2014 missing, the Sun have relied on a defense that's forcing a league-high 19.3 turnovers per contest and yielding 68.0 points per game after allowing 77.5 last season

Kelsey Bone has also increased her scoring average from 8.1 in her first two seasons to 14.9 this year, and Alex Bentley's average has gone from 10.3 in her first two seasons to a team-leading 15.7.

Bentley had a season-high 21 points in a 76-68 victory in Los Angeles on Sunday, which completed a 3-0 trip. The Sparks dropped to 0-4 for the first time while playing without Candace Parker, Kristi Toliver, Erin Phillips, Alana Beard and Chiney's sister, Nneka.

Nneka Ogwumike played for the first time this season Tuesday against Washington after dealing with a sprained ankle, but Los Angeles (0-5) fell 84-80. She had 11 points, six rebounds and five assists in 36 minutes before fouling out.

Toliver could return to the Sparks soon after Slovakia ended its run at the EuroBasket women's tournament Monday. The guard has averaged 12.0 points and shot 40.4 percent from 3-point range in her six seasons in the league.

The Sparks had taken six in a row against the Sun before this past weekend and have won three straight at Connecticut. They last loss in Connecticut on June 28, 2011, and won 90-64 there last July 13.


WNBA HEAD TO HEAD

Jun 21, 2015 Score ATS Results

CONN « 76 Cover: 4
LOS 68 Over: 144
Tools: Recaps

Aug 3, 2014 Score ATS Results
CONN 69 Cover: 7
LOS « 70 Under: 139
Tools: Recaps

Jul 13, 2014 Score ATS Results
LOS « 90 Cover: 22
CONN 64 Under: 154
Tools: Recaps

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Mystics (5-2) at Dream (3-6)

Date: June 26, 2015 7:30 PM EDT

The Washington Mystics know how difficult it can be to contain Angel McCoughtry.

The Atlanta Dream superstar burned the Mystics with some clutch play when these teams last met, though there is reason to believe that Washington will gain revenge and improve to 4-0 on the road Friday night.

McCoughtry is second in the league with 20.8 points per game. She had season highs of 34 points, 10 rebounds and six assists in a 100-96 overtime loss at Chicago on Wednesday.

"With Angel, you know she's going to make some incredible shots," Sky forward Elena Delle Donne said. "She plays good defense, she goes for steals and you have to be careful when she's guarding you. Angel never fails to disappoint, you just try to contain her."

Washington (5-2) failed to contain her down the stretch in a 64-61 loss June 12. McCoughtry scored five of her 21 points in the final 27.9 seconds as the Dream (3-6) outscored the Mystics 26-12 in the fourth quarter.

McCoughtry also averaged 21.5 points in two home wins over Washington last year.

Tierra Ruffin-Pratt did not see action for the Mystics in the first meeting but figures to play a bigger role this time after scoring a career-high 20 points in Tuesday's 84-80 win over Los Angeles. Ruffin-Pratt matched her point total from her first four games.

"TRP, you know what I'm talking about!" guard Ivory Latta said in a giddy Mystics locker room after the game. "I mean it's nothing new. She's definitely a great player."

Emma Meesseman also scored 20 against the Sparks. She is averaging 19.7 points on 71.1 percent shooting in her last three games, and scored 21 on 8-of-11 shooting in the first meeting with Atlanta.

Washington's Armintie Herrington sat out with a back issue and her status is unclear Friday.

Atlanta played Wednesday without Tiffany Hayes, the team's second-leading scorer with 12.2 points per game, and Aneika Henry, who are both at the European Games. The Dream have dropped four of five.


WNBA HEAD TO HEAD

Jun 12, 2015 Score ATS Results
ATL « 64 Cover: 9
WAS 61 Under: 125
Tools: Recaps

Jul 27, 2014 Score ATS Results
ATL 67 Under: 144
WAS « 77 Cover: 13
Tools: Recaps

Jul 5, 2014 Score ATS Results
WAS 73 Over: 159
ATL « 86 Cover: 4.5
Tools: Recaps

Jun 18, 2014 Score ATS Results
WAS 73 Over: 156
ATL « 83 Cover: 2
Tools: Recaps

Jun 15, 2014 Score ATS Results
ATL « 75 Cover: 4.5
WAS 67 Under: 142
Tools: Recaps

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Liberty (4-3) at Shock (6-1)

Date: June 26, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

Skylar Diggins and the WNBA's top 3-point attack have the Tulsa Shock enjoying their longest winning streak in seven years.

They'll look for a seventh straight victory Friday night when they host the New York Liberty.

Tulsa lost 83-75 at Minnesota in its opener but has won six in a row for the first time since May 21-June 6, 2008. The Shock avenged their lone loss Sunday, winning 86-78 at Minnesota for just their second victory in 22 meetings.

Diggins scored a season-high 26 with eight assists and Tulsa outscored the Lynx 28-21 in the fourth quarter.

"The real power of this team is to play being down really early and to sustain a lead toward the end," coach Fred Williams said. "Wow, these ladies just really played hard and played incredible today."

Tulsa hasn't won seven in a row since July 2007.

Diggins is fourth in the league with 17.1 points per game and is hitting 52.6 percent of her 3-pointers. The team's 82.4 points per game trail only Chicago's 88.4, while its 39.2 3-point percentage leads the league. The Shock ranked second-to-last in 2014, shooting 30.4 percent from deep.

The Liberty (4-3) won 73-64 on Sunday at Atlanta with Tina Charles recording 13 points and 12 rebounds for her 100th double-double. At 14.3 points per game, Charles is New York's only player scoring in double digits, but she was 5 for 20 and her 37.2 field-goal percentage is the worst of her career. She shot 46.2 percent in 2014.

Sugar Rodgers added 17 points in her first career start, going 2 for 5 from beyond the arc after starting the season 3 for 24.

"I've been in a shooting slump," Rodgers said. "Good shooters keep shooting. That is what the coaches said - keep shooting and one will fall. Two fell so that was good."

Rookie Brittany Boyd scored a season-high 18 off the bench and Carolyn Swords had 12 on 6-of-8 shooting, helping the Liberty's reserves outscore the Dream's 34-13.

Each of these teams won at home last year with both meetings decided by at least 15 points. Diggins averaged 22.0 points and 6.5 assists, while Charles averaged 26.5 points with 12.0 rebounds.

The Shock have outscored three home opponents by 58 points.


WNBA HEAD TO HEAD

Jul 1, 2014 Score ATS Results
TUL 74 Over: 164
NEW « 90 Cover: 13.5
Tools: Recaps

Jun 10, 2014 Score ATS Results
NEW 57 Under: 129
TUL « 72 Cover: 11
Tools: Recaps

[StarDust Bum]

CFL season betting preview: How to bet the East Division

The 2015 season will begin on Thursday night, with the Montreal Alouettes hosting the Ottawa Redblacks. We didn't see a single team in the East Division finish with a winning record last year, and the bookmakers are expecting the West to be superior again this season. According to the Grey Cup odds, Hamilton is the front runner in a jam-packed East.

Here's a look at how the teams in the East Division stack up entering the new campaign.

EAST DIVISION

Hamilton Tigers-Cats (2014: 9-9 SU, 9-9 ATS)

Odds to win Grey Cup: +660

Why bet the Tiger-Cats: Hamilton lost to Calgary in the Grey Cup last year, and finished first in the division during the regular season despite a .500 record. The Ti-Cats appear to be in good hands with a young quarterback in Zack Collaros, who comes off an outstanding rookie campaign. The 26 year old showed steady improvement throughout his first season as a starter, and his coach is expecting him to be even better in 2015. “He’s got some Doug Flutie in him,” said head coach Kent Austin, comparing him to one of the greatest quarterbacks the league has ever seen.

Why not to bet the Tiger-Cats: They were terrible on the road last year, winning just two of their nine games away from Tim Hortons Field. They might struggle to improve on that record with a young defense in 2015, and they'll have a tough time replacing Delvin Breaux, who left for the NFL. C.J. Gable, Nic Grigsby and Mossis Madu gave them depth in the backfield last year, but nobody stepped up as a true No. 1 running back.

Grey Cup Outlook: Good as long as Collaros can stay healthy.

Montreal Alouettes (2014: 9-9 SU, 9-9 ATS)

Odds to win the Grey Cup: +820

Why bet the Alouettes: Montreal finished last season winning eight of its last 10 games, and won its first playoff game in a 50-17 rout of the B.C. Lions. The Als are deep at running back with Brandon Whitaker, Brandon Rutley, Rainey and Logan, and they signed receivers Fred Stamps, Nik Lewis and Sam Giguere. The defense remains a strength, with Chip Cox and John Bowman both resigning.

Why not to bet the Alouettes: Jonathan Crompton took the team to the playoffs in 2014, but GM Jim Popp isn't convinced he has what it takes to be the starting quarterback. “Crompton won the job last year. The bottom line is can we win with him?” said Popp. Rakeem Cato led the Als in passing in their first preseason game, a 26-9 win over Ottawa. Brandon Bridge threw for 52 yards and a TD, while Crompton was just 2-of-6 for 17 yards. Who will start on opening night is anybody's guess.

Grey Cup Outlook: Fair. If they can find themselves a capable quarterback, they should be as good as anybody in the East.

Toronto Argonauts (2014: 8-10 SU, 7-11 ATS)

Odds to win the Grey Cup: +950

Why bet the Argos: While the Argos will begin the season with Trevor Harris filling in for Ricky Ray at quarterback, he'll have a stout offensive line protecting him. He's looked capable so far in the preseason. The receiving corps looks strong with Chad Owens and Andre Durie returning and a handful of veterans all competing for a roster spot. Rookie Tori Gurley impressed with seven catches for 188 yards and a TD in his first appearance of the preseason.

Why not to bet the Argos: Toronto hopes to make improvements on the defensive side of the ball, but it has a long way to go as its secondary allowed the most touchdowns in the CFL last season. The Argos’ success will likely depend on how Ricky Ray recovers from offseason shoulder surgery, and we saw last season how Travis Lulay struggled for B.C. coming off the same injury. Top it all off with a nightmare of a schedule to start the season, and the Argos have plenty to overcome.

Grey Cup Outlook: Poor. There are too many question marks surrounding this team, and if Ray has any setbacks returning from injury, the season will likely be a disaster.

Ottawa Redblacks (2014: 2-16 SU, 7-11 ATS)

Odds to win the Grey Cup: +3550

Why bet on the Redblacks: Ottawa added a lot of star power on offense heading into this season, with Maurice Price, Ernest Jackson and Greg Ellingson coming into to bolster the receiving corps. Ellingson has established chemistry with veteran quarterback Henry Burris from their time together in Hamilton. Chris Williams returns after spending the last two seasons in the NFL, and he'll give them a boost on offense as well as special teams.

Why not to bet on the Redblacks: While improvement appears inevitable for Ottawa, its got a long way to go after winning just two games all of last season. The prognosis on the defensive side of the ball is a lot less positive than it is on offense, and there’s a lot riding on the 40-year-old arm of Burris.

Grey Cup Outlook: Poor. This team should be vastly improved but they've still got a long way to go before they can expect to complete with the best teams in the league.

[StarDust Bum]

CFL season betting preview: How to bet the West Division

The 2015 Canadian Football Season kicks off this week. In the West, the Calgary Stampeders are favored to repeat as Grey Cup champions, with Alberta rivals Edmonton not far behind.

West Division

B.C. Lions (2014: 9-9 SU, 8-9-1 ATS)

Odds to win the Grey Cup: +625

Why bet the Lions: Quarterback Travis Lulay was the CFL's Most Outstanding Player in 2011, but he's struggled through shoulder injuries in recent years. If Lulay can stay healthy, he's almost certain to put up big numbers for the Lions. He gave Lions fans plenty of reason for optimism throwing for 121 yards and a touchdown on 8-of-13 passing in two quarters in the Lions 18-13 loss to Edmonton on June 19.

Why not to bet the Lions: A healthy Travis Lulay is far from a guarantee, and the offense will suffer if he has any setbacks in his return from injury. The Lions will also have a rookie head coach in Jeff Tedford, who was a coordinator for the NFL's Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year. History tells us that the transition from the NFL to the CFL is not an easy one.

Grey Cup Outlook: If everything goes right for the Lions, they certainly have the talent to get back to the Grey Cup.

Calgary Stampeders (2014: 15-3 SU, 12-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win the Grey Cup: +$375

Why bet the Stampeders: Last year's champs might have the best quarterback in the league in Bo Levi Mitchell, and the 25 year old is likely only going to get better with more experience. Jon Cornish was the league's leading rusher last year, despite only playing half the season. That's right, he ran for 1,082 yards in just nine games.

Why not to bet the Stampeders: They lost a pair of offensive linemen, with Stanley Bryant signing with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Brett Jones making the move to the NFL. They also lost a couple of key players on a defense than was only mediocre last year. Calgary should face stiffer competition from the likes of B.C., Saskatchewan and Edmonton, which have all improved.

Grey Cup Outlook: Calgary is a well-deserved favorite, but keep in mind that only one team has won consecutive championships over the last 17 seasons.

Edmonton Eskimos (2014: 12-6 SU, 12-6 ATS)

Odds to win the Grey Cup: +$495

Why bet the Eskimos: They say that defense wins championships, and the Eskimos defense ranked first in the CFL in both yards allowed and points allowed in 2014. Much of the credit goes to head coach Chris Jones, and he's expected to take the team to the next level here in 2015. With Mike Reilly at quarterback, the offense has plenty of potential.

Why not to bet the Eskimos: The road to the Grey Cup goes through Calgary and Edmonton lost all three regular season meetings versus its provincial rivals last year, and then it was shellacked by a score of 43-18 at Calgary in the playoffs.

Grey Cup Outlook: Not good. Defense may win championships in the NFL, but in the CFL you need a stud at QB, and Bo Levi Mitchell is still better than Mike Reilly.

Saskatchewan Roughriders (2014: 10-8 SU, 7-11 ATS)

Odds to win the Grey Cup: +$560

Why to bet the Riders: Saskatchewan lost quarterback Darian Durant to an injury last year, and went on to lose six of its final eight games without him. Durant is back at 100 percent heading into the 2015 season and the Riders have also added an insurance policy with the addition of backup Kevin Glenn.

Why Not to bet the Riders: With the departure of star offensive lineman Ben Heenan to the NFL, protecting the QB might be a bit of an issue. Glenn is certainly a great backup QB, but there's a reason why he's not the starter.

Grey Cup Outlook: Good. The Riders have what it takes to be considered a serious contender, but they are just one of several strong teams in the West Division.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2014: 7-11 SU, 8-8-2 ATS)

Odds to win the Grey Cup: +$1,175

Why bet the Blue Bombers: Winnipeg showed some promise last year, winning five of its first six games. While the Bombers suffered a second-half collapse and missed the playoffs, this is still a team that is trending in the right direction. Head coach Mike O'Shea will enter his second season with Drew Willy vying to become the quarterback of the future.

Why not to bet the Blue Bombers: Winnipeg allowed a whopping 71 quarterback sacks last season - an area that desperately needs improvement. The offensive line looks better on paper, but it remains to be seen if that will translate to performance on the field.

Grey Cup Outlook: Not good. This team should be improved, but will likely be a few years away from becoming a true contender.

[StarDust Bum]

How much will CFL rule changes impact betting totals in 2015?

The CFL is throwing a little gas on the fire this coming 2015 season, trying to spark scoring with revamped rules that it hopes will boost point production after a down year for the league.

The two biggest rule changes are the new defensive pass interference rule, not allowing defenders to make any contact with receivers whatsoever after five yards from the line of scrimmage, and a new punt coverage rule that gives returning teams much more running room.

These changes could have a big impact on scoring, especially if teams continuously gain solid field position from softer defense, penalties and punts, but it won’t be reflected in the CFL betting totals. At least not yet.

According to Randall “The Handle”, renowned CFL oddsmaker for a number of sportsbooks, he’s taking a wait-and-see approach with these adjustments before tacking on any extra points to the CFL Over/Unders.

“It’s more of a case of monitoring,” Randall tells Covers. “It’s a big smoke screen, in my opinion. Scoring was down and there was a knee-jerk reaction to it. There’s just not a lot of good players in the league right now… I think the league is trying to give itself a shot in the arm (with these rule changes).”

The 2014 CFL campaign was a downtick in offensive production compared to the year prior, with teams averaging 22.74 points per game last summer compared to 26.21 in 2013.

That power outage showed up at the sportsbooks last summer, when CFL action went 5-15 Over/Under through the first five weeks of the schedule – cashing in for the Under at a 75 percent rate. And because the CFL isn’t the most popular wagering option on the board, many books didn’t even notice that one-sided lean to the Under early into 2014. On the year, CFL games finished 34-51 O/U with a 60 percent winning clip for Under bettors.

The CFL, which has hung its helmet on its explosive scoring prowess when trying to sell the product to new markets, is putting in a hands-off policy when it comes to defensive backs trying to slow down receivers.

And unlike the NFL, teams can have multiple receivers in motion when the ball is snapped, giving defenders even less time to slow down opposing targets. Oh, and head coaches can also challenge pass interference calls/no calls in the CFL, so it looks like defenders could have their hands tied in 2015.

Randall specifically mentions the decline in the passing game when noting these new rules, pointing out that there were only three receivers with more than 1,000 yards in 2014 compared to seven in 2013, and that there were only two quarterbacks who threw for 20-plus touchdown in 2014 when there were four the previous season.

As for the running game, the CFL had just one 1,000-yard rusher in 2014 – Calgary RB Jon Cornish (1,082 yards in just nine games) – after having two in 2013, four in 2012, three in 2011, five in 2010, and seven in 2009.

The new punt rule forces the five interior linemen on the punting team to stay at the line of scrimmage until the ball is punted, limiting the amount of defenders downfield. The rule is estimated to give punt returners about an extra 10 yards of running room and put more space between the defending team’s first wave – the gunners - and second wave of tacklers.

The 2014 CFL season featured nine punt return touchdowns, three scores on kickoffs and three TDs off missed field goals returns.

These amendments to the rulebook may be a change in the right direction, in terms of getting the CFL back to its high-scoring status, but are far from difference makers, says Randall, who doesn’t see teams making major adjustments to these changes, on either side of the ball, out of the gate.

“Defensively, they’ll stick to what they’ve been doing, with the same special teams coverages,” he says. “From what I’m reading, coaches really don’t know what to do, and they’ll adjust if they need to. On offense, they’re always looking for that speedster guy that can run it back, so that won’t be any different.”

Week 1 features four games with an average current total of 49.25 points. Last season, Week 1 totals closed at an average of 54 points and finished 1-3 Over/Under. Over the past 10 CFL seasons, Week 1 contests have produced a 16-24 O/U record – playing below the total 60 percent of the time.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, June 26

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HAMILTON (10 - 9) at CALGARY (16 - 3) - 6/26/2015, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 3-2 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-0 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, June 27

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EDMONTON (13 - 7) vs. TORONTO (8 - 10) - 6/27/2015, 5:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-1 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WINNIPEG (7 - 11) at SASKATCHEWAN (10 - 9) - 6/27/2015, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Week 1 CFL games
Not lot of info in Week 1 games, but we'll give you what we have........

Ottawa @ Montreal-- Alouettes won all three series games LY, beating expansion rivals by 10-8-6 points, with all three games staying under total. RedBlacks lost 20-10 (+5) in their one visit here LY. Ottawa covered only two of last nine road games. Montreal covered its last six home games.

Hamilton @ Calgary-- Stampeders won last seven games with Hamilton, last of which was a 20-16 (-7.5) win in LY's Grey Cup game. Last five series games stayed under the total. TiCats lost last ten visits here, but covered four of last six. Hamilton covered its last five road tilts.

Edmonton @ Toronto-- Argos won four of last five series games; eight of last nine in series went over total. Eskimos lost 36-33/33-32 in last two visits here. Eskimos covered 11 of last 16 road games, eight of last 10 games overall. Edmonton covered five of last six visits here. Toronto QB Ray is still hurt, will miss first few weeks......

Winnipeg @ Saskatchewan-- Riders won 14 of last 16 games vs Winnipeg, sweeping three games LY, by 6-5-6 points. Blue Bombers lost last 11 visits to Regina, covering only twice in last seven visits here (last three here went over). Winnipeg struggled last year because they moved to the much stronger Western Division, with Ottawa re-joining CFL.

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CFL

Week 1

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Trend Report
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Thursday, June 25

7:30 PM
OTTAWA vs. MONTREAL
Ottawa is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games


Friday, June 26

9:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. CALGARY
Hamilton is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Calgary is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Calgary's last 23 games at home


Saturday, June 27

5:00 PM
EDMONTON vs. TORONTO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

8:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. SASKATCHEWAN
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 8 games when playing Saskatchewan
Winnipeg is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Winnipeg
Saskatchewan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg

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CFL

Thursday, June 25

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CFL need-to-know Week 1 betting stats and trends
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The 62nd Canadian Football League season kicks off north of the border this week with four games on the board. Sportsbooks have released their odds on these opening matchups and Covers has dug into the Week 1 trends over the past 10 CFL seasons, hoping to give you some insight and edge into the first slate of three-down matchups:

Ti-Cats’ troubles

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats can’t seem to get off on the right foot and enter the 2015 campaign on a 10-year Week 1 losing skid. To make matters worse, Hamilton is 1-9 ATS in those contests. The Ti-Cats are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS on the road in Week 1, which is where they open 2015 – at Calgary to play the defending Grey Cup champion Stampeders as 6.5-point underdogs Friday. Hamilton has been outscored by an average of 34.4-17.9 over the past decade of season debuts.

Easy Riders

Saskatchewan, unlike Hamilton, has been quick out of the blocks each year over the past decade. The Roughriders are an impressive 8-2 SU and ATS in their season opener since 2005, including a 5-1 SU and ATS count at home during that span. The Riders play host to rivals Winnipeg as 7.5-point home favorites Saturday.

Saskatchewan is also 7-3 Over/Under in those last 10 openers, going 4-2 O/U at home in that stretch. The Roughriders have scored an average of 34.3 points while allowing 24.1 points against during those Week 1 outings. Saturday’s total is set at 48.

Stamp this parlay

The Grey Cup champs are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last Week 1 appearances (unlike the NFL, not every team plays in Week 1) and have managed to cover in seven of those nine contests as well. Calgary, as mentioned above, is a 6.5-point home favorite versus Hamilton this coming Friday, and has not opened on the road in any season since 2005.

If you’re betting the Stampeders, you might as well parlay it with the Under in Week 1. Calgary has stayed below the betting total in seven of those nine opening week matchups. Friday’s total is set at 53 points.

Home sweet dome

The Edmonton Eskimos travel to the “Big Smoke” to take on the Toronto Argonauts in Week 1 Saturday, with Toronto set as a 4.5-point underdog in the Rogers Centre. The Argos have actually been a solid play at home during Week 1, going back to 2005, with a 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS mark in that span. However, the Eskimos are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Toronto, so take that trend with a grain of salt.

The Argonauts are also a profitable 2-8 Over/Under in Week 1 games the last 10 seasons, with a 1-3 O/U count at home. Toronto has scored an average of 23.6 points in those games while giving up 25 points against. Saturday’s total is set at 49.5 points.

Opening night

The other game on the CFL sked is Thursday’s opening night matchup between the Ottawa RedBlacks and Montreal Alouettes, with the Als pegged as 8-point home chalk. This is the first Week 1 matchup for an Ottawa team since the Renegades back in 2005 – the team’s final season. Ottawa was blown away 41-16 at Edmonton that year.

As for Montreal, it’s been a solid winner but bad bet in Week 1, boasting a 6-4 SU mark but a 4-6 ATS record in that span. The Alouettes were 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS (1-3 O/U as well) at home during that time frame. Montreal has just edged Week 1 opponent over the past decade with an average score of 27.5-27.1.

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Friday, June 26

Hamilton @ Calgary

Game 123-124
August 15, 2015 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Hamilton
112.992
Calgary
126.545
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 13 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
by 6 1/2
53
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
(-6 1/2); Under


Saturday, June 27

Edmonton @ Toronto

Game 125-126
August 15, 2015 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
113.270
Toronto
119.065
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 6
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
by 4 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+4 1/2); Over

Winnipeg @ Saskatchewan

Game 127-128
August 15, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
110.492
Saskatchewan
115.026
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Saskatchewan
by 4 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Saskatchewan
by 8
48
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(+8); Over

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CFL

Friday, June 26


Last season's best bet hits the gridiron Friday

The Calgary Stampeders are not only the CFL's defending Grey Cup Champions, they were also the best bet against the spread in 2014.

The Stamps went 12-5-1 ATS in 2014, but were just 5-4 ATS at home, which is where they begin their season Friday night.

Calgary hosts the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, the team they defeated in the Grey Cup, and are currently 6.5-point home favorites.