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Greetings board,
Ive been following a 6 game chase in MLB this year where so far the closed chases are 87-0 +87 UNITS. Ive been wagering just $40/Unit which equals $3,480 of profit. (using an aggressive chase plan outlined below) Thats a combined record of the 3 chases (Each are 6game chases outlined below).
I keep a spreadsheet to track the plays, but ultimately, its up to each person whos chasing to determine what amount to wager on each chase A-F (based on what lines they received). Ideally to maximize profits the best time to begin chasing is the 1st day the chases kickoff, but you can always start at any point thats not close to seasons end (MLB chases go into early/mid Sept so you can begin now if you choose to). MLB offers the most profits of any of the sports I chase.
MLB chase began on April 5 and all chase system plays are VERY selective. Meaning for some days, there may be no plays until the game(s) fall into the system.
Let me start out by explaining the chases systems. THE KEY is bankroll management & discipline. To find out how much that means to you in total dollars please figure out your expected unit size by choosing a money management plan below.
Standard
Due to the amount of games being played at one time and the increase of bet size during the systems the standard recommendation is that your unit size be 1/200th of your total bankroll available to allow for funds to always be available during peak times of the year when systems overlap. Example - $6,000 available would lead to $30/unit.
Aggressive
As with any type of betting with greater
risk comes greater reward. The aggressive approach would be to have your unit size be 1/150 over your total bankroll, but this can lead to times when a significant portion of your bankroll is at risk during certain peak days during the year. Example - $6,000 available would lead to $40/unit.
Conservative
For those wanting to play it safer I'd recommend 1/200 or even 1/250 of your total bankroll be your unit size. Of course this will lead to a slower accumulation of profits, but lesser risk of a major loss.
In the end, the chase is always to win 1 unit....Meaning, wager to cover any previous loss (if any) to win 1 unit until chase clears then its back to (A) play.
This year in MLB Im playing three chase systems. Two are two different +1.5 dog chases & the other is an Over/Under chase. My backtesting shows on average +150 to +170 units profit/yr chasing all three. Each 6 game seperate chase is indicated by an A play representing bet to win 1 unit & B play (if A play loses) representing to win 1 unit plus the units lost playing the A play. Most chases have shown to cover by the end of the (D) games.
For the chase you need to account for the 'juice'. So for the MLB Over/Under 6 game chases, which have -110, it would be the following:
A wager 1.1 units to win 1 unit
B wager 2.31 units to win 2.1 units
C wager 4.85 units to win 4.41 units
D wager 10.19 units to win 9.26 units
E wager 21.40 units to win 19.45 units
F wager 44.94 units to win 40.85 units
For the two different MLB +1.5 Dog 6 game chases, which have varying lines (average -170) each A thru F chase wager would be determined based on what line you received. MLB dog chases are much more 'juicey' in that the chase plays the +1.5 dogs so there the lines are mid to upper -100's (average -170 or so) which involves much more risk. But again, most cover by the end of the (D) games.
howardlewis744
Ive been following a 6 game chase in MLB this year where so far the closed chases are 87-0 +87 UNITS. Ive been wagering just $40/Unit which equals $3,480 of profit. (using an aggressive chase plan outlined below) Thats a combined record of the 3 chases (Each are 6game chases outlined below).
I keep a spreadsheet to track the plays, but ultimately, its up to each person whos chasing to determine what amount to wager on each chase A-F (based on what lines they received). Ideally to maximize profits the best time to begin chasing is the 1st day the chases kickoff, but you can always start at any point thats not close to seasons end (MLB chases go into early/mid Sept so you can begin now if you choose to). MLB offers the most profits of any of the sports I chase.
MLB chase began on April 5 and all chase system plays are VERY selective. Meaning for some days, there may be no plays until the game(s) fall into the system.
Let me start out by explaining the chases systems. THE KEY is bankroll management & discipline. To find out how much that means to you in total dollars please figure out your expected unit size by choosing a money management plan below.
Standard
Due to the amount of games being played at one time and the increase of bet size during the systems the standard recommendation is that your unit size be 1/200th of your total bankroll available to allow for funds to always be available during peak times of the year when systems overlap. Example - $6,000 available would lead to $30/unit.
Aggressive
As with any type of betting with greater
risk comes greater reward. The aggressive approach would be to have your unit size be 1/150 over your total bankroll, but this can lead to times when a significant portion of your bankroll is at risk during certain peak days during the year. Example - $6,000 available would lead to $40/unit.
Conservative
For those wanting to play it safer I'd recommend 1/200 or even 1/250 of your total bankroll be your unit size. Of course this will lead to a slower accumulation of profits, but lesser risk of a major loss.
In the end, the chase is always to win 1 unit....Meaning, wager to cover any previous loss (if any) to win 1 unit until chase clears then its back to (A) play.
This year in MLB Im playing three chase systems. Two are two different +1.5 dog chases & the other is an Over/Under chase. My backtesting shows on average +150 to +170 units profit/yr chasing all three. Each 6 game seperate chase is indicated by an A play representing bet to win 1 unit & B play (if A play loses) representing to win 1 unit plus the units lost playing the A play. Most chases have shown to cover by the end of the (D) games.
For the chase you need to account for the 'juice'. So for the MLB Over/Under 6 game chases, which have -110, it would be the following:
A wager 1.1 units to win 1 unit
B wager 2.31 units to win 2.1 units
C wager 4.85 units to win 4.41 units
D wager 10.19 units to win 9.26 units
E wager 21.40 units to win 19.45 units
F wager 44.94 units to win 40.85 units
For the two different MLB +1.5 Dog 6 game chases, which have varying lines (average -170) each A thru F chase wager would be determined based on what line you received. MLB dog chases are much more 'juicey' in that the chase plays the +1.5 dogs so there the lines are mid to upper -100's (average -170 or so) which involves much more risk. But again, most cover by the end of the (D) games.
howardlewis744
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