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Game 2 - Rockets at Warriors
May 20, 2015
The runaway train known as the Golden State Warriors almost get derailed in the series opener of the Western Conference Finals, trailing the Rockets by 16 points in the second quarter. A 25-6 run by the West’s top seed to close out the first half gave Golden State the lead for good and capture a 110-106 victory to take a 1-0 series advantage heading into Thursday’s Game 2 at Oracle Arena.
The Rockets grabbed the cover as 10 ½-point underdogs, even though Houston almost didn’t cash, falling behind, 108-97 with two minutes remaining in regulation. Kevin McHale’s club pulled off a 9-0 run after Golden State’s 11-0 spurt, as the Rockets pulled with two thanks to Trevor Ariza’s three-pointer. Stephen Curry capped off a 34-point night with a pair of free throws to ice away the victory, as the league MVP knocked down six shots from three-point range.
Both teams shot 46% from the floor, as the Rockets played nearly the entire second half without Dwight Howard, who suffered a knee injury after teammate Josh Smith collided with him on a rebound. Howard is listed as questionable for Game 2, as he scored seven points and pulled down 13 rebounds in 26 minutes. MVP runner-up James Harden tried to keep up with Curry in the stats department, scoring a team-high 28 points, to go along with 11 rebounds and nine assists.
Since falling behind the Clippers, 3-1 in the conference semifinals, the Rockets have covered four straight games, while posting a 6-2 ATS record as a road underdog in the postseason since 2014. Houston eclipsed the ‘over’ in each of the first six contests against Los Angeles, but the Rockets have built a two-game ‘under’ streak, barely, after the Game 1 total of 219 ½ finished four points shy of an ‘over.’
VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David believes bettors could be scratching their heads for Game 2 on Thursday. He explained, “A lot of individuals often get a bad taste in their mouth when a team wins but fails to cover the spread and that was the case in Game 1. For the most part Houston was the right side but you can’t ignore the fact that Golden State was up 11 points late in the fourth quarter and if wasn’t for an unanswered 9-0 run by Houston late in the game, the Warriors had a legit chance to cover the healthy number.”
“I’m not surprised that the line is in the same neighborhood for Game 2 and I expect Golden State to take a 2-0 lead in the series, but I’m not going out on the limb with that prediction. As far as laying 10-plus points, it is a little concerning to back a Warriors team that is 2-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite in the playoffs. However if you exclude Game 1’s results, Houston hasn’t shown the ability to be competitive in losses in this year’s playoffs, losing all by double digits,” David says.
Golden State improved to 5-0 SU this season against Houston, but suffered its first ATS loss to the Rockets in five tries. The home team has led the Western Conference Finals, 2-0 in each of the past three seasons (San Antonio, 2012-14), with the last split coming back in 2011 between Dallas and Oklahoma City (Mavs had home-court and won the series).
Oddsmakers opened Game 2 at 220 and the line seems fair according to David.
“Game 1 had a nice pace to it and it started out fast, which helped the first-half ‘over’ connect (109 ½). Unfortunately for those bettors playing the ‘over’ in game, the game got tight at the wrong time and came up short largely because Golden State was held to two points in the final two minutes. One miss either way by the Rockets and they start fouling early to extend the game. Another reason you can point to the ‘under’ is neither team shot great from the field or free throw line and seeing Houston only attempt 22 shots from 3-point land was a surprise.”
Golden State’s offense has cooled off in Game 2’s of the postseason, an excellent observation made by David, “The Warriors have seen the ‘under’ go 8-2-1 in the playoffs and their defense continues to impress me. I know the Rockets defense isn’t great but the Warriors have taken a step back in Game 2 in each of their first two playoff series. They scored 106 and 101 in openers against New Orleans and Memphis respectively only to follow up those efforts with 97 and 90 points. I believe playing ‘under’ 115 on Golden State’s team total has value in Game 2.”
How much of a swing did we see in the series odds with Golden State rallying for a win in Game 1? Sportsbook.ag opened the Warriors up at -850 on Sunday to win the series, but Steve Kerr’s squad is now up to -2750 (Bet $2750 to win $100) to capture the conference title. The Rockets have rallied before to win a series after losing the opening game, but Houston went from +600 to +1300 on the series price following the Game 1 meltdown.
May 20, 2015
The runaway train known as the Golden State Warriors almost get derailed in the series opener of the Western Conference Finals, trailing the Rockets by 16 points in the second quarter. A 25-6 run by the West’s top seed to close out the first half gave Golden State the lead for good and capture a 110-106 victory to take a 1-0 series advantage heading into Thursday’s Game 2 at Oracle Arena.
The Rockets grabbed the cover as 10 ½-point underdogs, even though Houston almost didn’t cash, falling behind, 108-97 with two minutes remaining in regulation. Kevin McHale’s club pulled off a 9-0 run after Golden State’s 11-0 spurt, as the Rockets pulled with two thanks to Trevor Ariza’s three-pointer. Stephen Curry capped off a 34-point night with a pair of free throws to ice away the victory, as the league MVP knocked down six shots from three-point range.
Both teams shot 46% from the floor, as the Rockets played nearly the entire second half without Dwight Howard, who suffered a knee injury after teammate Josh Smith collided with him on a rebound. Howard is listed as questionable for Game 2, as he scored seven points and pulled down 13 rebounds in 26 minutes. MVP runner-up James Harden tried to keep up with Curry in the stats department, scoring a team-high 28 points, to go along with 11 rebounds and nine assists.
Since falling behind the Clippers, 3-1 in the conference semifinals, the Rockets have covered four straight games, while posting a 6-2 ATS record as a road underdog in the postseason since 2014. Houston eclipsed the ‘over’ in each of the first six contests against Los Angeles, but the Rockets have built a two-game ‘under’ streak, barely, after the Game 1 total of 219 ½ finished four points shy of an ‘over.’
VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David believes bettors could be scratching their heads for Game 2 on Thursday. He explained, “A lot of individuals often get a bad taste in their mouth when a team wins but fails to cover the spread and that was the case in Game 1. For the most part Houston was the right side but you can’t ignore the fact that Golden State was up 11 points late in the fourth quarter and if wasn’t for an unanswered 9-0 run by Houston late in the game, the Warriors had a legit chance to cover the healthy number.”
“I’m not surprised that the line is in the same neighborhood for Game 2 and I expect Golden State to take a 2-0 lead in the series, but I’m not going out on the limb with that prediction. As far as laying 10-plus points, it is a little concerning to back a Warriors team that is 2-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite in the playoffs. However if you exclude Game 1’s results, Houston hasn’t shown the ability to be competitive in losses in this year’s playoffs, losing all by double digits,” David says.
Golden State improved to 5-0 SU this season against Houston, but suffered its first ATS loss to the Rockets in five tries. The home team has led the Western Conference Finals, 2-0 in each of the past three seasons (San Antonio, 2012-14), with the last split coming back in 2011 between Dallas and Oklahoma City (Mavs had home-court and won the series).
Oddsmakers opened Game 2 at 220 and the line seems fair according to David.
“Game 1 had a nice pace to it and it started out fast, which helped the first-half ‘over’ connect (109 ½). Unfortunately for those bettors playing the ‘over’ in game, the game got tight at the wrong time and came up short largely because Golden State was held to two points in the final two minutes. One miss either way by the Rockets and they start fouling early to extend the game. Another reason you can point to the ‘under’ is neither team shot great from the field or free throw line and seeing Houston only attempt 22 shots from 3-point land was a surprise.”
Golden State’s offense has cooled off in Game 2’s of the postseason, an excellent observation made by David, “The Warriors have seen the ‘under’ go 8-2-1 in the playoffs and their defense continues to impress me. I know the Rockets defense isn’t great but the Warriors have taken a step back in Game 2 in each of their first two playoff series. They scored 106 and 101 in openers against New Orleans and Memphis respectively only to follow up those efforts with 97 and 90 points. I believe playing ‘under’ 115 on Golden State’s team total has value in Game 2.”
How much of a swing did we see in the series odds with Golden State rallying for a win in Game 1? Sportsbook.ag opened the Warriors up at -850 on Sunday to win the series, but Steve Kerr’s squad is now up to -2750 (Bet $2750 to win $100) to capture the conference title. The Rockets have rallied before to win a series after losing the opening game, but Houston went from +600 to +1300 on the series price following the Game 1 meltdown.
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