The Bum's Best Bets For Sunday May 10th - MLB - NBA -NHL !

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, May 10

Cavaliers got 14 points off bench from JR Smith (4-8 from arc) but team shot 31% for game inside arc and trails series 2-1. Bulls blocked 10 shots Friday; they're 3-4 vs Cavs this year-- Chicago won four of last five series games played here. Bulls won 10 of last 13 games overall with five of last eight staying under total; Chicago made 10-18 from arc in Game 1, only 13-41 in last two games- they scored 20 transition points last game, after having total of 14 in Games 1-2. Mirotic was +19 in 22:00 off the bench for Chicago in Game 3.

Chris Paul (hamstring) played 23:00 in Friday's rout of Houston; they've now won eight of last 11 games against Rockets, who were 18-31 on foul line after going 42-64 in Game 2. Houston lost four of last five road tilts in series. Six of last seven Clipper games went over the total. Rockets are just 27-92 on arc in series-- how do they let JJ Redick score 31 points in a playoff game against them (11-15 from floor)? Gut-check time for the Rockets, whose FG% in series has gone from 45.2 to 42.5 to 39.8-- this is where team chemistry will be tested- they've gathered talented guys who might not all be the best team guys.

2015 playoffs
Chicago vs Cleveland
Chi 99-92, +4.5, U195
Clev 106-91, -5.5, O195.5
Chi 99-96, -3, O194.5

Washington vs Atlanta
Wash 104-98, +5.5, O197
Atl 106-90, -9, U199
Wash 103-101, +4, O196.5

Memphis vs Golden State
GSt 101-86, -10.5, U196
Mem 101-86, +10.5, U198.5
Mem 99-89, +4.5, U196.5

LA Clippers vs Houston
LAC 117-101, +7.5, O212
Hst 115-109, -8, O214.5
LAC 124-99, -6, O214.5




NBA

Sunday, May 10

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Trend Report
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3:30 PM
CLEVELAND vs. CHICAGO
Cleveland is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

8:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston's last 13 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Houston is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games at home
LA Clippers are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against Houston

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NBA

Sunday, May 10

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Game of the Day: NBA Sunday playoff matchups
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Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls (+1.5, 194.5)
Bulls lead series 2-1

The Derrick Rose that makes clutch shots has returned and now the Chicago Bulls are in position to open up a 3-1 lead when they host the Cleveland Cavaliers in Sunday’s Eastern Conference semifinal matchup. Rose banked in the decisive 3-pointer at the buzzer in Game 3 to give Chicago a dramatic 99-96 victory and the emotional edge in the series.

Rose has been up-and-down performer in this series but Friday’s 30-point effort included the big-time play he used to make prior to his injury woes. “I don’t want to sound cocky,” Rose told reporters. “But that’s a shot you want to take if you are a player in my position. … And no, I did not call glass.” Cleveland forward LeBron James insisted his team will bounce back and not let the adversity alter the approach for Game 4. “I already know how we’re going to respond, the same way we did in Game 2,” James told reporters in reference to the Cavaliers’ lone win in the series. “Whether or not that results in a win, we don’t know but I don’t have any doubt of how we will play on Sunday. We’re going to give ourselves a chance.”

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: CHI opened at -1, but were bet over the fence to +1.5 by Saturday evening. The total of 194.5 has not shifted since opening.

INJURY REPORT: Cavaliers - N/A Bulls - F Pau Gasol (Ques-Hamstring)

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: Point guard Kyrie Irving suffered through a miserable 3-of-13 shooting performance in Game 3 with 11 points and zero assists. Coach David Blatt revealed afterward that Irving has a sore right foot that is hampering his play but James doesn’t want any part of excuse-making. “No one feels sorry for Kyrie because he’s hurting,” James told reporters. “We’re not going to make any excuses. He’s on the floor so he has to make plays. Obviously, from a competitive standpoint, it’s killing him inside because I know what type of competitor he is and I know what type of teammate he is.”

ABOUT THE BULLS: Power forward Pau Gasol departed Game 3 with a left hamstring injury and is questionable for Sunday’s game after experiencing issues in each of the last two games. “A couple minutes into the game, it started tightening up again,” Gasol told reporters. “I just tried to play through it as much as I could, but in the second half and third quarter it got worse so I couldn’t sprint.” Backup Taj Gibson, whose screen necessitated a defensive switch that allowed Rose to get in position to make the game-winning shot, will move into the starting lineup if Gasol is ruled out.

TRENDS:

*Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.
*Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
*Under is 34-16-1 in Cavaliers last 51 games playing on 1 days rest.
*Under is 15-6 in Bulls last 21 vs. NBA Central.



Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers (-7.5, 217.5)
Clippers lead series 2-1

A blowout win has put Los Angeles in the driver’s seat but the Clippers need another victory to stay there when they host the Houston Rockets in Sunday’s Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals. Los Angeles took a 2-1 lead when it broke the game open in the third quarter and rolled to a 124-99 victory over the Rockets on Friday.

Point guard Chris Paul’s hamstring ailment is improving and he’s expected to be in position to increase his minutes on Sunday after contributing 12 points and seven assists in 23 minutes in Game 3. Backup Austin Rivers stole the show for the Clippers by scoring a personal playoff-best 25 points with 16 coming in the pivotal third quarter. Houston’s two losses in the series have been by an average of 20.5 points and center Dwight Howard – averaging 20 points and 13.3 rebounds in the series – hinted that he needs to see more of the basketball. “We have to do a better job of attacking the basket,” Howard told reporters. “When you shoot all 3s, it’s just easy run-outs for them. There is no easy opportunity to crash the boards and it just puts us in a bad position.”

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: LAC opened at -7.5 and has remained there since. The total has jumped half a point from 217 to 217.5.

INJURY REPORT: Rockets - G K.J. McDaniles (Out-Wrist) Clippers - N/A

ABOUT THE ROCKETS: Star guard James Harden attempted 15 free throws in Houston’s win and averaged just 5.5 attempts in the two defeats and is averaging 25.7 points and 10 assists in the series. “I think I could have been a little bit more aggressive,” Harden told reporters about his inability to take over in the two losses. “Just too passive. Just too passive.” Harden could use some help from backup forward Josh Smith, who has been highly unproductive in the series and is averaging eight points on 9-of-31 shooting.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: The much-maligned Rivers took over Game 3 and scored 15 of his points during the 20-3 burst that broke open the contest. Part of the criticism hurled his way stems from the fact that his father Doc coaches the club and Paul was encouraging dad to enjoy his son’s impressive splurge. “Even when C.P. said that, it was like white noise to me,” Doc Rivers told reporters. “He was just very aggressive and that’s what we’ve been telling him to do. The scoring and all that was great, we love it but the big picture was we allowed C.P. to get back in this series, feel comfortable and not overextend himself.”

TRENDS:

*Rockets are 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
*Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
*Over is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
*Under is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings in Los Angeles.

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NBA

Sunday, May 10


Chris Paul to start Game 4 for Clippers

Chris Paul is expected to get the start for the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 4 Sunday. Paul played in Game 3, but had a minutes restriction while backup point guard Austin Rivers played well enough, which gave the All-Star point guard a chance to rest.

Paul is averaging 21.4 points, 7.8 assists and 4.4 rebounds in his eight games during the playoffs this season. The Clippers have played better with Paul despite still winning, as they have averaged nearly 21 more points per 100 possessions with Paul on the floor.

LA is currently -7.5 when they host the Rockets Sunday.


Bulls' Gasol questionable for Game 4

Chicago Bulls forward Pau Gasol has a strained left hamstring, and his status for Sunday's Game 4 against the Cleveland Cavaliers is uncertain, Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said Saturday.

Thibodeau said an MRI revealed the strained hamstring, and that Gasol is still sore.

"(He's) day to day," Thibodeau said. "He didn't do anything today. We just did some walkthrough stuff. We'll see how he feels (Sunday)."

Gasol said after Game 3 that he initially hurt the hamstring in Game 2 and tried to play through the injury. However, he was unable to complete Game 3 on Friday, leaving the contest in the second half after scoring six points in 22 minutes.

The Bulls lead the series 2-1, but may have to play a pivotal Game 4 in Chicago without Gasol.

Gasol averaged 18.5 points and 11.8 rebounds during the regular season, and is averaging 15.1 points and 9.9 rebounds through nine playoff games.


All three games in Rockets-Clippers went over

Despite ever escalating closing totals, the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Clippers continue to go over in each of their games during their playoff series.

The average total for the series so far has been 214, with the two teams combining for an average of 221 points per game.

Currently, the total for Game 4 Sunday is 217.5.

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NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, May 10


Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls

Game 725-726
May 10, 2015 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland Cavalie
127.221
Chicago Bulls
123.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland Cavalie
by 4
200
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland Cavalie
by 1 1/2
194 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland Cavalie
(-1 1/2); Over

Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Clippers

Game 727-728
May 10, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston Rockets
121.531
Los Angeles Clipp
133.735
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles Clipp
by 12
222
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles Clipp
by 7 1/2
217 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles Clipp
(-7 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, May 10

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CLEVELAND (58 - 31) at CHICAGO (56 - 35) - 5/10/2015, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
CHICAGO is 57-78 ATS (-28.8 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 10-5 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 9-6 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (61 - 29) at LA CLIPPERS (62 - 30) - 5/10/2015, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 52-37 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 115-76 ATS (+31.4 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
HOUSTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
HOUSTON is 31-22 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 30-21 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 18-28 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 135-173 ATS (-55.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 10-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 10-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Sunday, May 10


Dogs go 2-0 in playoff action Saturday

Both underdogs in the NBA playoffs not only covered Saturday, but won straight up.

The Washington Wizards topped the Atlanta Hawks 103-101 as 4-point home dogs and the Memphis Grizzlies hammered the Golden State Warriors 99-89 as 4.5-point home dogs.

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NBA
Short Sheet

Sunday, May 10


Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4, CHI Leads 2-1

Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls, 3:30 ET

Cleveland: 33-19 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days
Chicago: 23-43 ATS in home games after a close win by 3 points or less


Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4, LAC Leads 2-1

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers, 8:30 ET
Houston: 16-7 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent
Los Angeles: 12-21 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins

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NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, May 10

Washington held Rangers to three goal in last three games; under is 4-0-1 this series. New York scored one goal in losing Games 3-4 here; they tied Game 5 with 1:41 left, won it 9:37 into OT, now need to win to force Game 7 at MSG. Under is 8-1-1 in Ranger playoff games, 8-2-2 in Washington's games. Capitals are 24-25 killing penalties in playoffs; Rangers are 1-11 on power play this series-there has not been a power play goal in this series sicne Game 2. Capitals won six of last nine games overall. Rangers outshot Washington 67-39 in first period in series; shots have been even after first period.

Home side won 11 of last 14 Calgary-Anaheim games, with Flames a woeful 1-24 in last 25 visits to this building- they were outscored 9-1 here in Games 1-2 of this series, with only goal in third period of Game 1 that was already hopelessly lost. Nine of last 12 series games went over. Ducks are 7-1 in playoffs, won 11 of last 14 games overall- they won last four home games, allowing total of four goals. Flames scored three goals in losing last four road games; they are 1-14 on power play in series, Anaheim is 4-14.

Home teams are 11-7 in this round of playoffs; under is 9-7-2.

2015 NHL playoffs
Washington vs NY Rangers
Wash 2-1, +$143, U5
NYR 3-2, -$174, N5
Wash 1-0, +$105, U5
Wash 2-1, -$107, U5
NYR 2-1 OT, -$166, U5

Tampa Bay vs Montreal
TB 2-1 OT, +$107, U5
TB 6-2, +$125, O5
TB 2-1, -$144, U5
Mtl 6-2, +$134, O5
Mtl 2-1, -$123, U5

Calgary vs Anaheim
Ana 6-1, -$190, O5.5
Ana 3-0, -$215, U5.5
Cal 4-3 OT, +$106, O5.5
Ana 4-2, -$137, O5.5

Minnesota vs Chicago
Chi 4-3, -$135, O5
Chi 4-1, -$137, N5
Chi 1-0, +$134, U5
Chi 4-3, +$105, O5
Blackhawks win series, 4-0




NHL

Sunday, May 10

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
NY RANGERS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Rangers last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Rangers last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games

10:00 PM
CALGARY vs. ANAHEIM
Calgary is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Calgary's last 7 games when playing Anaheim
Anaheim is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Anaheim's last 16 games when playing at home against Calgary

[StarDust Bum]

NHL

Sunday, May 10


Capitals are winners of five straight at home

The Washington Capitals will look to pull off the upset and eliminate the New York Rangers at the Verizon Center Sunday. Being in the nations capital has been good to the Caps as they have won their past five games on home ice.

Since dropping a 4-1 loss to start the playoffs, the Capitals have gone undefeated on home ice and have outscored opponents 14-6 while registering one shutout.

Currently the Caps are -115 to close out the series Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL
Long Sheet

Sunday, May 10

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NY RANGERS (59-26-0-7, 125 pts.) at WASHINGTON (52-29-0-13, 117 pts.) - 5/10/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 30-14 ATS (+48.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
WASHINGTON is 30-24 ATS (-2.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY RANGERS are 59-33 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games this season.
NY RANGERS are 20-8 ATS (+11.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less this season.
NY RANGERS are 39-18 ATS (+12.6 Units) second half of the season this season.
NY RANGERS are 29-11 ATS (+13.0 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
NY RANGERS are 21-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 13-4 ATS (+8.3 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 16-11 ATS (+28.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY RANGERS are 11-5 ATS (+16.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 13-10 (+1.5 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 13-10-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
13 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+7.5 Units)

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CALGARY (50-35-0-7, 107 pts.) at ANAHEIM (58-24-0-8, 124 pts.) - 5/10/2015, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 58-32 ATS (+97.9 Units) in all games this season.
ANAHEIM is 34-17 ATS (+4.8 Units) second half of the season this season.
ANAHEIM is 46-23 ATS (+9.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 18-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home games when leading in a playoff series since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 36-15 ATS (+17.3 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 24-8 ATS (+11.7 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
ANAHEIM is 32-18 ATS (+6.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ANAHEIM is 223-206 ATS (+470.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.
CALGARY is 50-42 ATS (+94.3 Units) in all games this season.
CALGARY is 29-24 ATS (+53.6 Units) second half of the season this season.
CALGARY is 27-12 ATS (+39.1 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
CALGARY is 24-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a division game this season.
CALGARY is 15-9 ATS (+24.2 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
CALGARY is 13-6 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 11-5 (+3.6 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 11-5-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+4.6 Units)

[StarDust Bum]

NHL
Dunkel

Sunday, May 10


New York Rangers @ Washington Capitals

Game 13-14
May 10, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York Rangers
12.245
Washington Capita
13.755
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington Capita
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington Capita
-115
5
Dunkel Pick:
Washington Capita
(-115); Over

Calgary Flames @ Anaheim Ducks

Game 15-16
May 10, 2015 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Calgary Flames
11.162
Anaheim Ducks
12.945
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Anaheim Ducks
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Anaheim Ducks
-260
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Anaheim Ducks
(-260); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NHL
Short Sheet

Sunday, May 10


Eastern Conference Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - WAS Leads 3-2

New York Rangers at Washington Capitals, 7:05 ET
NY Rangers: 9-2 SU when facing elimination in a playoff series
Washington: 7-15 SU after allowing 2 goals or less in 2 straight games


Western Conference Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - ANA Leads 3-1

Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks, 10:05 ET
Calgary: 9-2 SU after having lost 3 of their last 4
Anaheim: 23-32 SU after scoring 3 goals or more in 5 straight games

[StarDust Bum]

Recapping yesterdays action......NBA AND NHL GOES 4 - 0, MLB GOES 2 - 3.......

MAY RATED PICKS

MLB

*****..................... 9 - 9 .........................- 0.63
double play.............. 10 - 16 ......................- 9.40
triple play ................ 4 - 7 ........................ - 15.07
grand slam .............. 4 - 12 ..................... - 44.36

NBA

*****......................3 - 3
double play...............6 - 3
triple play................ 0 - 0
slam dunk.................1 - 6

NHL

*****................. 3 - 2................+ 1.30
double play.......... 10 - 2............... + 16.70
triple play.............0 - 0............... + 0.00
hat trick...............0 - 1 ................- 4,00

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Playoff Essentials

May 10, 2015

Cavaliers (-1.5, 194.5) at Bulls – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC

East Semis Game 4 – Chicago leads 2-1

LeBron James comes off one of his worst playoff games of his career. It says a lot about him when that can be said after 27-8-14, but he shot 8-for-25 (1-for-7 from 3) and committed seven turnovers in Friday’s 99-96 loss. Because of how the game ended, it’s easy to forget how it started. James dished out seven assists in an opening quarter where he again looked to facilitate first. He never got himself into a rhythm, which creates an interesting dilemma for him in Game 4. Can James afford to wait before working himself into a lather for a must-win game or does he put a priority on ensuring his primary tag-team partner gets going?

Kyrie Irving had one of the worst games of his entire career, nevermind the playoffs. He failed to record an assist for the first time since Nov. 5 and shot 3-for-13, making no shots inside the 3-point arc. Irving scored 30 points in the series opener and Bulls defenders were having a hard time keeping him in front of them, but he rolled his ankle in the first quarter and hasn’t been 100 percent due to a right foot sprain that was disclosed by head coach David Blatt in defending his point guard’s performance. James’ decision to help Irving get going first or put the entire team on his back is going to be the key to this entire game, since the Bulls defense will adjust accordingly.

Chris David writes that “Unfortunately for fans, this series has become a battle of attrition and it appears that whichever team is left standing could be deemed the winner. Along with turnovers and fouls, you can’t handicap health and nobody really knows the status of these players.” Irving’s woes were softened by J.R. Smith returning from a two-game suspension. Playing his first game of the series, he drilled a pair of clutch 3-pointers in the fourth quarter, inspiring confidence from James, who will undoubtedly have him riding on the wing alongside him down the stretch going forward. Iman Shumpert played 34 minutes despite being limited by his groin injury and shot just 3-for-9, including 2-for-7 from 3-point range, but it’s clear he’s also not the same player who started the series.

Matthew Dellavedova remained in Blatt’s rotation while Mike Miller, and Shawn Marion were cut out altogether, giving the Cavs a smaller, quicker look since Kendrick Perkins remains unutilized. The Bulls won the rebounding battle 54-39 in Game 3, so it will be interesting to see if Blatt deviates again and opts to go bigger. The Cavs opened -215 to win the series according to Sportsbook.ag., but have gone from a -160 favorite before Game 3 to +140 now down 2-1. Five of the last six Cavs playoffs games have gone under the posted total.

Derrick Rose showed no ill effects from the shoulder stinger suffered in Game 1, firing up 26 shots, including the game-winning bank shot. He’ll continue to be aggressive, but still hasn’t shot the ball all that well in the series (27-for-72, 37.5 pct). He did manage to finally get to the free-throw line after going three consecutive games without doing so, winding up 9-for-10, but nailing the first Bulls playoff buzzer-beater since Michael Jordan doesn’t alter the fact that he’s still struggling with his shooting. Rose has improved in limiting his turnovers and has been active on the boards, which helped Chicago regain control of an area that was an issue in Game 2, as the Cavs turned 14 offensive rebounds into points.

The Bulls finished with an 18-9 edge on the offensive boards in Game 3 despite losing Pau Gasol to a strained hamstring that has him questionable to play. Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson combined for 10 of the offensive rebounds and did a better job matching up with the athleticism of Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov, but neither is the weapon on pick-and-pops that Gasol is. Jimmy Butler is averaging 19.3 points and shooting 5-for-16 from 3-point range in the series, but his greatest contributions this have been his defensive work on James. He had five steals in Game 3.

David’s betting nugget for this series highlights Chicago’s performance as a home underdog, which only occurred eight times this season. “The Bulls have gone 4-4 both SU and ATS in those games but the ‘over’ has produced a 6-2 mark. Chicago averaged 100 PPG over this span and that tells me that its playing aggressive and feeding off the home fans.” Chicago initially was +185 to pull the upset in this series per Sportsbook.ag., and are now available at -120. Unders had prevailed in five of the last six Bulls games.

Rockets at Clippers (-4, 217) – 8:30 pm. ET – TNT

West Semis Game 4 – L.A. leads 2-1

The Rockets knew their first playoff game outside of the state of Texas wasn’t going to be easy, but they felt confident given the uncertainty surrounding Clippers point guard Chris Paul and the re-emergence of James Harden in Game 2’s fourth quarter. That confidence was short-lived. The Clippers last trailed less than four minutes in and dominated coming out of the halftime break, crushing Houston’s spirit in Game 3. It remains to be seen if they’ve stomped out their heart for the series. Harden is averaging 25.7 points and 10 assists against L.A. thus far and is 25-for-26 from the free-throw line in the series, but he’s also turned the ball over 21 times in the three games. He’s yet to play like the MVP runner-up against the Clips despite no defender on the roster who should be able to check him.

The Rockets tied the Clips with a 26-15 road record that was second-best in the West behind Golden State, so there’s hope that they can pick themselves up off the mat yet again, but there isn’t much to point toward from Game 3 as something they can rally behind. Dwight Howard played his worst game of the series, outplayed by DeAndre Jordan and unable to overcome the free-throw shooting woes that have shaken his confidence. Howard ended up 4-for-11 from the stripe and is now 16-for-41 (39 pct) against the Clippers. Doc Rivers will certainly play the Hack-a-Dwight again on Sunday since the addition of a hostile crowd to the equation has shaken the defensive focus he’s shown all postseason. Houston lacks a rim protector when he’s off the floor, leaving its suspect defense further exposed.

Trevor Ariza, Terrence Jones and Josh Smith were a combined 10-for-29 from the field and blocked no shots between them. Smith grabbed nine rebounds, but Houston’s starting forwards each had just two boards and went 1-for-10 from 3-point range. Jason Terry was the only Rocket to shoot better than 50 percent from the field and still managed a team-worst -22 in the plus/minus game, bringing little to the table defensively. The Rockets are now +400 at Sportsbook.ag.. Six of Houston’s eight playoff games have gone over the posted total, and the over is 11-3 in its games dating back to the end of the regular season.

More total talk from VI’s David: ”I’m very surprised this total isn’t higher for Game 4 just based on Houston’s defense. The Rockets are allowing 112.5 points per game in the postseason and they’ve made bench players named Rivers and Barea look like All-Stars in the playoffs. At this point, Houston can’t fix its issues defensively but I do believe the offense is too good to be held under 100 points again. The Rockets live and die by the 3-pointer and it’s been more of the latter in this series. If they ever shoot 40 percent from downtown, they will put up a minimum of 110 on Los Angeles.”

Paul debuted in the series after missing the first two games with a strained left hamstring and really shined. He played just 23 minutes and probably won’t see his typical allotment of playing time on Sunday, but he scored 12 points, dished out seven assists and helped everyone get comfortable. Head coach Doc Rivers got the ultimate boost from son Austin Rivers, who put the game away with his unexpected scoring flurry, winding up with 25 points on 10-for-13 shooting. J.J. Redick added 31 points on 11-for-14 shooting, including 5-for-6 from 3-point range. Ball movement has been a major factor in the series, since everyone has looked to make the extra pass and share the glory, a specialty of the vanquished Spurs that the Clips seemed to focus on as a key to getting through that series.

Blake Griffin continued his exceptional play in the series, finishing with 22 points, 14 boards and four assists in continuing his run as one of the most productive performers of these playoffs. Jordan was back in foul trouble in Game 3, but played 36 minutes, grabbing 15 rebounds and changing the game with his activity.

Despite the one-sided dominance L.A. demonstrated in Game 3, VI’s David warns you to think twice before laying the big number. “Oddsmakers have installed them as even healthier favorites in Game 4. A lot of bettors often put too much stock into big wins and it could come back to bite you in the ass. The one betting trend on Los Angeles that should be noted is how it does off an ATS victory in the postseason. Since 2012, Los Angeles is 1-11-1 ATS off an ATS win in the playoffs, the lone victory coming in Game 3’s double-digit victory of this series. The Clippers are 3-0 ATS in this series but Sunday’s number seems a tad inflated.”

Sportsbook.ag. has installed the Clippers as -550 chalk to reach the Western Conference Finals. Six of the Clippers last seven games have gone over the posted total.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Sunday

May 10, 2015


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Mets are 10-0 since August 16, 2014 as a favorite after a one run win for a net profit of $1000.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Jordan Zimmermann starts the Nationals are 12-0 since August 2012 at home as a -120 to -200 favorite after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $1200.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Diamondbacks are 11-0 (+$1,125) at home before September coming off an extra inning loss against this team.

CHOICE TREND:

The Athletics are 0-13 OU since June 09, 2005 as a 140+ dog after a 5+ run loss and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $1300 when playing the under.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

The Rangers are 1-12 since June 16, 2013 when they are off two losses in which they never led and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $1292 when playing against.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's NHL Playoff betting cheat sheet

May 09, 2015

New York Rangers at Washington Capitals (-115, 5.0)

Capitals lead series 3-2


The New York Rangers staved off elimination with a dramatic overtime victory Friday and attempt to level their Eastern Conference semifinal on Sunday night when they visit the Washington Capitals in Game 6. Chris Kreider scored the tying goal late in regulation to set the stage for captain Ryan McDonagh's game-winner as the Rangers sent the series back to Washington trailing 3-2.

"We are still alive," New York goaltender Henrik Lundqvist said. "Being in their shoes, we've been there. Going home now there is a lot of pressure for them. I know for sure they don't want to come back here for another game." The Presidents' Trophy-winnning Rangers have had each of their 10 postseason games decided by one goal, extending their NHL streak to 12 straight contests dating to last year. The Capitals, seeking their first conference final since 1998, insist they feel no added pressure facing the team that knocked them out of the playoffs in 2012 and 2013. "I don't think so," defenseman Karl Alzner said. "We're still the underdog in this series. Pressure's the same no matter what."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, NBCSN, CBC, TVA

LINE HISTORY: The Capitals have held steady as -115 home favorites. The total has moved from 4.5 to 5.0.

INJURY REPORT: Rangers - LW Mats Zuccarello (Out-Head) Capitals - RW Eric Fehr (Ques-Upper Body)

ABOUT THE RANGERS: While leading scorer Rick Nash has gone eight games without a goal, Kreider added to his burgeoning postseason legacy of coming through in the clutch with the tying tally with 1:41 in regulation Friday. It was the second goal of the series and 14th career playoff tally for Kreider dating to his NHL debut in Game 3 of a first-round series against the Ottawa Senators in 2012. "We've been needing some people to step up and score big timely goals, and it's been tough to come by, for sure," said forward Derek Stepan, who had the primary assist on Kreider's blistering one-timer. "But we're still in this thing and it was a big moment there for (Kreider) to give us a chance in overtime."

ABOUT THE CAPITALS: Superstar Alex Ovechkin appeared poised to dominate the series after scoring in each of the first two games of the series, including a highlight-reel tally and nine hits in Game 2, but he has been held off the scoresheet in each of the last three contests. “Next one will be the big one," Ovechkin said. “Nobody said it was going to be easy. Of course you want to close the series when you get the lead. It’s over. You have to forget about it and move forward." Washington has mustered only eight goals in the five games and its power play, ranked No. 1 in the league during the regular season, has had only eight chances against New York with the lone conversion coming in the series opener.

TRENDS:

*Home team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
*Rangers are 27-9 in their last 36 road games.
*Under is 19-4-3 in the last 26 meetings in Washington.
*Under is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 overall.

Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks (-235, 5.5)

Ducks lead series 3-1

If the Calgary Flames hope to stay alive in the postseason, they'll need to find a way to win at Honda Center. Calgary looks to stave off elimination Sunday when it visits the top-seeded Anaheim Ducks for Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinal series.

Anaheim has been anything but a Magic Kingdom for the Flames, who have gone 0-16-5 in the Ducks' building since capturing Game 3 of the 2006 first-round matchup between the current Pacific Division rivals. Anaheim dominated Calgary at home in the first two games of this series, scoring a total of nine goals while allowing just one. The Flames avoided an unenviable 3-0 deficit by rallying for a 4-3 overtime victory on Tuesday but were pushed to the brink three days later as they dropped a 4-2 decision for their first home loss of the postseason (4-1). That triumph put the Ducks one win away from their first trip to the conference final since 2007, when they went on to capture their lone Stanley Cup championship.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, NBCSN, RSN, TVA

LINE HISTORY: The Ducks opened as -220 favorites to close out the series and their odds have only improved since then, now sitting at -235. The total has held steady at 5.5.

INJURY REPORT: Flames - C Paul Byron (Ques-Lower Body) Ducks - N/A

ABOUT THE FLAMES: Calgary is winless in four trips to Honda Center in 2014-15, scoring a total of six goals in the defeats. Mikael Backlund, who scored in overtime of Game 3, believes the Flames are due. "At some point, you've got to win there," he said. "Things are going to happen if you play well, and I think this year we haven't played a good full 60 minutes there. If we find a way to play a real solid 60 minutes, we have a chance to win."

ABOUT THE DUCKS: Matt Beleskey's hand remained hot Friday as he snapped a 2-2 tie during a power play early in the third period, giving him a goal in each game of the series. The four-game streak matches the franchise playoff record set in 2009 by Corey Perry and equaled two years later by Teemu Selanne. Beleskey, who set career highs during the regular season with 22 goals and 32 points, led the team with eight game-winning tallies and tops the club again with two this postseason.

TRENDS:

*Flames are 2-30-3 in the last 35 meetings in Anaheim.
*Ducks are 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
*Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
*Over is 5-1 in Ducks last 6 overall.