The Bum's Best Bets For Friday May 1st - MLB - NBA -NHL !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, May 1

Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets

Game 537-538
May 1, 2015 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta Hawks
125.846
Brooklyn Nets
112.389
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta Hawks
by 13 1/2
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta Hawks
by 3 1/2
200 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta Hawks
(-3 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, May 1

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ATLANTA (63 - 24) at BROOKLYN (40 - 47) - 5/1/2015, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) in road games in all playoff games since 1996.
ATLANTA is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in road games in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
ATLANTA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when leading in a playoff series since 1996.
BROOKLYN is 55-37 ATS (+14.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 50-34 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
ATLANTA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points this season.
ATLANTA is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) on Friday nights this season.
ATLANTA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
ATLANTA is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 8-8 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 10-6 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, May 1

Home side won all five Brooklyn-Atlanta games in this series, as Hawks lost Games 3-4 here by 8-5 points. Hawks made 35 of 94 from arc, 49-61 on line in three home wins, but were 19-63 from arc, 23-32 on line in Game 3-4 losses. Johnson is just 29-81 in series, he had best game (7-15) last game. Hawks lost last four road games, all by 9 or less points. Brooklyn won its last three home games, by 13-8-5 points. Nets have to win to force a Game 7.

Home favorites are 15-14 in this round, home dogs are 5-5; home teams are 24-15 SU-- over is 17-22.

2015 playoffs
Brooklyn vs Atlanta
Atl 99-92, -10, U201.5
Atl 96-91, -9.5, U202
Brook 91-83, +3.5, U199
Brook 120-115 OT, +5, O198
Atl 107-97, -9, O200

Boston vs Cleveland
Clev 113-100, -11.5, O203
Clev 99-91, -11, U206
Clev 103-95, -4, U204
Clev 101-93, -6.5, U201.5
Cavaliers won series, 4-0

Milwaukee vs Chicago
Chi 103-91, -8, O186
Chi 91-82, -8, U190.5
Chi 113-106, 2OT, -2.5, O187
Mil 92-90, +4, U190
Mil 94-88, +8, U189
Chi 120-66, -3.5, U188.5
Bulls win series 4-2

Washington vs Toronto
Wash 93-86 OT, +4, U194.5
Wash 117-106, +5, O193.5
Wash 106-99, -4.5, O195.5
Wash 125-94, -6.5, O197.5
Wizards win series, 4-0

New Orleans vs Golden State
GSt 106-99, -12, U205
GSt 97-87, -13, U206.5
GSt 123-119 OT, -5, O203
GSt 109-98, -6.5, U208
Warriors win series, 4-0

Dallas vs Houston
Hst 118-108, -5.5, O212.5
Hst 111-99, -6.5, U214
Hst 130-128, +1, O214.5
Dal 121-109, +3, O218.5
Hst 103-94, -8, U221.5
Rockets win series, 4-1

San Antonio vs LA Clippers
LAC 107-92, -1.5, U207
SA 111-107 OT, +1.5, O207.5
SA 100-73, -5, U203.5
LAC 114-105, +6, O202.5
SA 111-107, +2.5, O203
LAC 102-96, +5.5, U206

Portland vs Memphis
Mem 100-86, -5.5, U188.5
Mem 97-82, -6, U189
Mem 115-109, +3.5, O189
Port 99-92, -4, U193
Mem 99-93, -6, O189.5
Grizzlies win series, 4-1

East vs West
SU: West 242-177 ATS: West 214-202-3
East teams HF vs West: 56-57
East teams HU vs West: 46-52
West teams HF vs East: 81-79-3
West teams HU vs East: 24-21




NBA

Friday, May 1

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. BROOKLYN
Atlanta is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Brooklyn is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Brooklyn is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

NHL
Dunkel

Friday, May 1


Minnesota Wild @ Chicago Blackhawks

Game 53-54
May 1, 2015 @ 9:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota Wild
9.979
Chicago *********
11.475
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago *********
by 1 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago *********
-140
5
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago *********
(-140); Under

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Montreal Canadiens

Game 57-58
May 1, 2015 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay Lightni
10.216
Montreal Canadien
13.274
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Montreal Canadien
by 3
4 1/2
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montreal Canadien
-130
5
Dunkel Pick:
Montreal Canadien
(-130); Under




NHL
Long Sheet

Friday, May 1

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MINNESOTA (50-30-0-8, 108 pts.) at CHICAGO (52-30-0-6, 110 pts.) - 5/1/2015, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 38-15 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-11 ATS (+30.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less this season.
MINNESOTA is 33-20 ATS (+7.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
MINNESOTA is 21-14 ATS (+5.9 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
MINNESOTA is 18-10 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
CHICAGO is 27-24 ATS (-22.0 Units) second half of the season this season.
CHICAGO is 56-66 ATS (-38.2 Units) in home games on Friday nights since 1996.
CHICAGO is 13-18 ATS (-18.2 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 15-9 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 15-9-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
11 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.3 Units)

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TAMPA BAY (54-27-0-8, 116 pts.) at MONTREAL (54-24-0-10, 118 pts.) - 5/1/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 6-14 ATS (-10.9 Units) in road games after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
MONTREAL is 54-34 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all games this season.
MONTREAL is 48-29 ATS (+10.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 47-29 ATS (+9.2 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 20-10 ATS (+6.4 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
MONTREAL is 24-16 ATS (+3.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MONTREAL is 32-25 ATS (+57.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.6 Units) in the second round of the playoffs since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 179-191 ATS (+409.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 8-8-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.5 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, May 1

Tampa Bay won its last five games with Montreal; five of last six series games went over total. Habs scored total of five goals in losing last three home games with Tampa Bay. Lightning won last two games to beat Detroit in seven games; last game was Wednesday- they've won four of last six at home. Canadiens haven't played since they beat Ottawa in Game 6 Sunday- they won three of their last four home games- three of their last four games stayed under total. Since they last won Stanley Cup in '93, Montreal is 2-4 in this round. In its franchise history, Tampa Bay is 1-2 in this round.

Minnesota won its last two games with Chicago after losing previous five; five of last seven games in series stayed under. Wild won three of last four games; they haven't played since Sunday- they gave up two or fewer goals in their last six wins. Chicago won three of last four games; five of their last six went over the total- they've been off since Saturday. Minnesota split its two appearances in the 2nd round. Chicago won last four series in this round; they won Stanley Cup in '10 and '13.

2015 NHL playoffs
Washington vs NY Rangers
Wash 2-1, +$143, U5

Tampa Bay vs Montreal

Calgary vs Anaheim
Ana 6-1, -$190, O5.5

Minnesota vs Chicago




NHL

Friday, May 1

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. MONTREAL
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Montreal
Montreal is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Montreal is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

9:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Minnesota

[StarDust Bum]

NHL

Friday, May 1

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Friday's NHL Playoffs betting cheat sheet
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Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens (-124, 5)

The Tampa Bay Lightning were swept out of the postseason by Montreal a year ago but will get a shot to avenge that humbling defeat when they visit the Canadiens on Friday night in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. The Lightning battled back from a 3-2 series deficit against Detroit to earn a rematch with Montreal, which edged out Tampa Bay by two points for the Atlantic Division title.

The Lightning dominated the regular season against the Canadiens, winning all five matchups by a combined 21-8 margin and posting three victories in Montreal. "We're probably the only team in the playoffs with home-ice advantage that's the underdog," said Canadiens coach Michel Therrien, whose team has been idle since eliminating Ottawa on Sunday in Game 6 of their opening-round series. Montreal goaltender Carey Price on Thursday was among three finalists named for the Hart Trophy, which goes to the league's most valuable player. He'll be opposed by Tampa Bay netminder Ben Bishop, who missed last season's four-game sweep due to a dislocated elbow.

LINE HISTORY: The Canadiens opened as -133 favorites, but have been bet down to -124. The total of 5 has not shifted since open.

ABOUT THE LIGHTNING: Bishop, who blanked Detroit in Wednesday's Game 7, could be the "X" factor for Tampa Bay after posting a career-high 40 victories and beating the Canadiens five times this season, allowing a total of eight goals. The Lightning do have two issues that need to be rectified: Their power play converted on only 2-of-30 chances against the Red Wings while captain Steven Stamkos, the NHL's second-leading goal scorer with 43, failed to tally in the series to stretch his postseason drought to 10 games. Tyler Johnson did most of the heavy lifting versus Detroit with a trio of two-goal games and has four tallies in eight career contests against Montreal.

ABOUT THE CANADIENS: Price established league highs in wins (44), goals-against average (1.96) and save percentage (.933) to become the first netminder to lead the NHL in all three categories since 1990-91, but he was torched for 16 goals in going 0-4-1 against the Lightning this season. Price had to come up big against Ottawa due to the struggles of Montreal's offense, which managed six regulation goals in the final five games and was woeful on the power play with one tally in 20 chances. "There’s really no one out there who can say they have a good power play and it’s making the difference for them," defenseman P.K. Subban said. "But, we know that it can be the difference as the playoffs go on.”

TRENDS:

*Lightning are 8-0 in their last 8 Conference Semifinals games.
*Canadiens are 5-0 in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
*Over is 6-1-2 in the last 9 meetings.
*Under is 4-0 in Lightning last 4 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.



Minnesota Wild at Chicago Blackhawks (-128, 5)

The Minnesota Wild are hoping the third time truly is a charm when they open their Western Conference semifinal series against the Chicago Blackhawks at United Center on Friday. Minnesota has been eliminated by Chicago in each of the last two postseasons, dropping a first-round matchup in five games in 2013 and falling in last year's conference semifinals in six contests.

The Wild enter this matchup having knocked off the Central Division champion for the second straight time, defeating St. Louis in six games after ousting Colorado in seven last postseason. Chicago is coming off a hard-fought first-round triumph over Nashville in six games, with one contest going to double overtime and another needing three extra sessions - both won by the Blackhawks. One of three Original Six teams remaining in the playoffs, Chicago won all three of its home games versus the Predators while being led by captain Jonathan Toews, who finished the first round leading the league in scoring with eight points - including three goals. The Blackhawks will turn back to Corey Crawford, who gave way to Scott Darling after starting the first two games against Nashville before coming on in relief in Game 7 and notching the decisive victory.

LINE HISTORY: The 'Hawks opened as -135 before dropping to -128. the opening total of 5 has remained steady.

ABOUT THE WILD: Minnesota is counting on Vezina and Masterton Trophy finalist Devan Dubnyk to continue his superb play against Chicago. The 28-year-old turned aside 56-of-57 shots in helping the Wild win the final two meetings of the regular season after dropping the first three of the five-game series. "He definitely gives us a lot of confidence," Wild forward Kyle Brodziak said of Dubnyk, who went 27-9-2 with five shutouts and a 1.78 goals-against average after being acquired from Arizona. "He came and calmed things down and let us get back to our game. We feel very confident with him back there."

ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS: Chicago nearly went scoreless in its two regular-season encounters with Dubnyk, as Bryan Bickell scored with 1:48 remaining in the third period of a 2-1 loss on April 7. The Blackhawks know they have a tough task ahead if they hope to advance to the conference final for the second straight postseason and fourth in the last six years. "He is one of the strengths in their game," forward Marcus Kruger said of the netminder. "He's been great for them since he's been there. I know that is something we need to talk about, to find a way to score on him."

TRENDS:

*Wild are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.
*Blackhawks are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
*Over is 4-1-3 in Wild last 8 overall.
*Under is 12-4-3 in Blackhawks last 19 games following a win.

[StarDust Bum]

Cheat Sheet - Conference Semis

April 30, 2015


Chicago Blackhawks vs. Minnesota Wild

Blackhawks: 13-8 SU Last 21 Meetings (Reg Season & Playoffs)
Blackhawks: 8-3 SU & 4-5-2 O/U vs Wild Last 2 Postseasons
Blackhawks: Won First Home Game in 8 Consecutive Series

Wild: Won 14 of Last 16 Road Contests
Wild: Won First Home Game in Each Playoff Meeting
Wild: Won Last 2 Regular Season Meetings this year

Betting Trends:
-- Underdogs are 2-9 Last 11 Playoff Meetings

Anaheim Ducks vs. Calgary Flames

Ducks: 14-6 SU Last 20 Meetings
Ducks: Scored 4 or more goals in 3 of last 4 games
Ducks: Haven't Lost at Home to Flames since 2006

Flames: 3-7 O/U Last 10 with 5.5 total
Flames: 5-1 ATS including 3-0 as Puck-Line Favorite
Flames: 4-0 SU & ATS Last 4 Home Games

Betting Trends:
-- Over is 6-3 Last 9 Meetings
-- In 5 games this year, Over is 4-1 with 3 of those games reaching 9 total goals

Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning: Won All 5 Meetings in Regular Season
Lightning: On a 2-4-1 O/U Run Last 7 Games

Canadiens: Swept Lightning in 2014 First Round Match-up
Canadiens: Failed to Convert 22 of Last 23 Power-Plays

New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals

Rangers: 20-4 SU as a Favorite vs Division Opponents
Rangers: 7-1 SU Last 8 Games as a Favorite
Rangers: 8-2 SU Last 10 Meetings

Capitals: 3-7 O/U Last 10 Games

Betting Trends:
-- Under is 12-5-3 Last 20 Meetings
-- Road Underdogs are 6-3 Last 9 Meetings

[StarDust Bum]

Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores

8:05 PM EDT
537 ATLANTA HAWKS -4.5 -13 -4 -05 / -3.5 / -3.5 -12 -3.5 -15 -170
FREE
538 BROOKLYN NETS 200o05 200u14 / 199.5 / 199.5u14 199 +145 HOT PICK
TV: ESPN, DTV: 206

[StarDust Bum]

Team Pitcher Open Line Movements Current Runline Scores

2:20 PM EDT
951 MILWAUKEE BREWERS (R) Peralta, W 7.5u25 7.5u25 7.5u20 +1.5(-135)
FREE
952 CHICAGO CUBS (L) Lester, J -170 -187 / -195 / -200 -195 -1.5(+115) HOT PICK
MIL-CF-Carlos Gomez-OUT | TV: CSN-Chicago, FS-Wisconsin, DTV: 665, 669 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WIND IN FROM CENTER 5-10. GAME TEMP 63, RH 36%
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7:10 PM EDT
953 WASHINGTON NATIONALS (R) Scherzer, M 6 -101 / -105 / -106 -105 -1.5(+160)
954 NEW YORK METS (R) Harvey, M -120 6 / 6o20 / 6o15 6u16 +1.5(-190)
TV: MASN, SNY, DTV: 639, 640 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, WIND RIGHT TO LEFT 5-10. GAME TEMP 56, RH 52%
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7:10 PM EDT
955 PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (R) Williams, J 8u15 8u15 8o15 +1.5(-165)
956 MIAMI MARLINS (R) Koehler, T -165 -165 / -155 / -145 -146 -1.5(+145)
TV: FS-Florida, DTV: 654 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WIND OUT TO CENTER 3-8. GAME TEMP 79, RH 45% HEAT INDEX 80
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7:35 PM EDT
957 CINCINNATI REDS (R) Desclafani, A -120 -126 / -119 / -116 -121 -1.5(+140)
958 ATLANTA BRAVES (R) Foltynewicz, M 7.5u15 7o15 / 7o20 / 7o21 7o20 +1.5(-160)
TV: FS-Ohio, DTV: 661 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WIND IN FROM LEFT 3-8. GAME TEMP 66, RH 40%
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8:15 PM EDT
959 PITTSBURGH PIRATES (R) Burnett, A 7.5u25 7.5u25 +1.5(-175)
960 ST LOUIS CARDINALS (R) Lynn, L -140 -140 / -146 / -145 -140 -1.5(+155)
TV: FS-Midwest, ROOT-Pittsburgh, DTV: 659, 671 | MOSTLY FAIR, WIND RIGHT TO LEFT 2-7. GAME TEMP 68, RH 32%
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10:10 PM EDT
961 ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (R) De La Rosa, R 8 8 8u20 +1.5(-160)
962 LOS ANGELES DODGERS (R) Frias, C -150 -150 / -153 / -152 -145 -1.5(+140)
TV: FS-Arizona, DTV: 686 | CLEAR, WIND OUT TO RIGHT 4-9. GAME TEMP 61, RH 83%
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10:10 PM EDT
963 COLORADO ROCKIES (R) Butler, E 7u20 7o17 / 7o20 / 7o25 7.5u20 +1.5(-175)
964 SAN DIEGO PADRES (R) Kennedy, I -150 -150 / -145 -140 -1.5(+155)
TV: FS-San Diego, DTV: 694 | CLEAR, WIND IN FROM LEFT 3-8. GAME TEMP 68, RH 67%
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7:05 PM EDT
965 TAMPA BAY RAYS (R) Colome, A -125 -115 / -112 / -109 -107 -1.5(+150)
966 BALTIMORE ORIOLES (R) Tillman, C 8 8u20 / 8u19 / 8u15 8o15 +1.5(-170)
TV: MASN2, SunSports, DTV: 641, 653 | Dome
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7:10 PM EDT
967 TORONTO BLUE JAYS (L) Buehrle, M 8u15 7.5 / 7.5u20 / 7.5u15 7.5u20 +1.5(-210)
968 CLEVELAND INDIANS (R) Carrasco, C -130 -116 / -118 / -115 -113 -1.5(+180)
TV: SportsTime Ohio, DTV: 662 | FAIR, WIND IN FROM CENTER 5-10. GAME TEMP 61, RH 47%
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7:10 PM EDT
969 NEW YORK YANKEES (L) Sabathia, C 8.5o20 9u21 / 9u20 / 8.5o15 8.5o20 +1.5(-205)
970 BOSTON RED SOX (R) Masterson, J -130 -115 / -112 / -119 -114 -1.5(+175)
TV: NESN, YES, DTV: 628, 631 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, WIND IN FROM RIGHT 3-8. GAME TEMP 48, RH 65%
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8:05 PM EDT
971 OAKLAND ATHLETICS (L) Kazmir, S -135 -145 / -143 / -148 -151 -1.5(+110)
972 TEXAS RANGERS (R) Lewis, C 8.5 8.5 / 8.5u12 8.5u15 +1.5(-130)
TEX-P-Yu Darvish-OUT | TV: CSN-California, FS-Southwest, DTV: 676, 698 | FAIR, WIND IN FROM CENTER 3-8. GAME TEMP 81, RH 36% HEAT INDEX 80
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8:10 PM EDT
973 SEATTLE MARINERS (L) Elias, R 8.5o20 +100 / -104 -112 -1.5(+145)
974 HOUSTON ASTROS (R) Deduno, S -120 8.5o20 / 8.5o25 8.5o20 +1.5(-165)
TV: FS-Southwest, ROOT-Northwest, DTV: 676, 687 | MOSTLY FAIR, WIND OUT TO CENTER 3-8. GAME TEMP 73, RH 25% WIND CHILL 0 (MINUTE MAID PARK ROOF MAY CLOSE IN COLD WEATHER)
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8:10 PM EDT
975 DETROIT TIGERS (L) Lobstein, K 8.5o20 8.5o15 / 8.5o20 / 9u20 8.5 +1.5(-190)
976 KANSAS CITY ROYALS (R) Young, C -120 -119 / -115 / -116 -117 -1.5(+160)
TV: FS-Detroit, FS-Kansas City, DTV: 663, 672 | MOSTLY FAIR, WIND OUT TO LEFT 4-9. GAME TEMP 76, RH 30% HEAT INDEX 74
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8:10 PM EDT
977 CHICAGO WHITE SOX (L) Quintana, J 8 -112 / -110 / -112 -109 -1.5(+145)
978 MINNESOTA TWINS (R) Gibson, K -107 8 8o20 +1.5(-165)
TV: CSN-Chicago, FS-North, DTV: 665, 668 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, 20% CHANCE LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY. WIND RIGHT TO LEFT 6-11. GAME TEMP 59, RH 72%
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10:15 PM EDT
979 LOS ANGELES ANGELS (L) Wilson, C 7u25 7u11 / 7u15 / 7u16 7u15 +1.5(-215)
980 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (R) Heston, C -125 -107 / -114 / -115 -117 -1.5(+185)
LAA-1B-Albert Pujols-OUT | TV: CSN-Bay, FS-West, DTV: 692, 696 | FAIR, WIND OUT TO RIGHT CENTER 7-12. GAME TEMP 63, RH 64%

[StarDust Bum]

Team Open Line Movements Current Puck Line Scores

9:35 PM EDT
53 MINNESOTA WILD 5u20 5u20 5 +1.5(-260)
FREE
54 CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS -140 -140 -135 -1.5(+215) HOT PICK
CHI-G-Corey Crawford-Probable | TV: NBCS, DTV: 220
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7:05 PM EDT
57 TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 5u20 5u22 / 5 / 5u20 5u25 +1.5(-275)
58 MONTREAL CANADIENS -135 -135 -125 -1.5(+230)
TV: NBCS, DTV: 220
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[StarDust Bum]

MLB EARLY START:

Friday, May 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Milwaukee - 2:20 PM ET Chi. Cubs -195 500 *****

Chi. Cubs - Under 7.5 500 *****

[StarDust Bum]

MLB EARLY GAMES:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

05/01/15 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 2-*0-*0 100.00% +1000

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, May 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore -102 500
Baltimore - Over 8 500 *****

NY Yankees - 7:10 PM ET NY Yankees +111 500
Boston - Over 8.5 500 *****

Toronto - 7:10 PM ET Toronto +123 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Cleveland - Over 7.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Philadelphia +136 500
Miami - Over 8 500

Washington - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -113 500 *****
NY Mets - Under 6 500

Cincinnati - 7:35 PM ET Cincinnati -121 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Atlanta - Over 7 500

Oakland - 8:05 PM ET Texas +134 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Texas - Under 8.5 500

Chi. White Sox - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -111 500 GRAND SLAM
Minnesota - Over 8 500

Detroit - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City -118 500 GRAND SLAM
Kansas City - Under 8.5 500

Seattle - 8:10 PM ET Houston +102 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Houston - Over 8.5 500

Pittsburgh - 8:15 PM ET Pittsburgh +131 500 *****
St. Louis - Over 7.5 500

Arizona - 10:10 PM ET Arizona +136 500
LA Dodgers - Under 8 500

Colorado - 10:10 PM ET San Diego -138 500 DOUBLE PLAY
San Diego - Under 7.5 500

LA Angels - 10:15 PM ET LA Angels +111 500 GRAND SLAM
San Francisco - Over 7 500

[StarDust Bum]

2015 playoffs

Brooklyn vs Atlanta

Atl 99-92, -10, U201.5

Atl 96-91, -9.5, U202

Brook 91-83, +3.5, U199

Brook 120-115 OT, +5, O198

Atl 107-97, -9, O200

Friday, May 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Brooklyn +4.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Brooklyn - Over 199 500 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, May 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 7:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +106 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Montreal - Over 5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Minnesota - 9:30 PM ET Minnesota +122 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Chicago - Over 5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

FOR THOSE WHO WANT SOME INFOR ON THE DERBY......I'LL POST THIS HERE AND PICKS ON HORSES THREAD.....

Kentucky Derby Breakdown

May 1, 2015


Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the field for the 141st Kentucky Derby!

Kentucky Derby Odds

2015 BREAKDOWN

PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Derby Record) Trainer (Derby Record)

1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho 50/1 Elvis Trujillo (0-1) Jim Cassidy (0-2)

Notes: Someone gets stuck with the dreaded rail draw every year and unfortunately for his connections he got stuck with it this year. He came into this season undefeated in three starts and had some steam but he just hasn’t lived up to his expectations. He had an excuse in the San Felipe but none last out when he set easy fractions in the Blue Grass. And now this. I was never a fan and I’m certainly not now.

2 - Carpe Diem 8/1 John Velazquez (1-16) Todd Pletcher (1-40)

Notes: The first of three from Pletcher, he could very well be the best of the Todd Squad this year. His lone defeat in five starts came in the B.C, Juvenile where he finished second so it’s obvious that he has a ton of talent. However, his two biggest wins, the Breeders’ Futurity and Blue Grass last out, came at Keeneland and Pletcher decided that this colt loved in there so much that he kept him there until early this week to train for this race while the rest of his runners were at Churchill. It could be that he’s a good horse overall but an exceptional one at Keeneland. The draw adds to the conundrum because you’d think he’s going to have to leave a bit harder from the gate than Johnny V. would have liked. If he doesn’t, he runs the risk of getting shuffled back going into the first turn frenzy. And he has a history of being problematic at the gate and will be in there an awfully long time while the rest of them load. Factor in Pletcher’s terrible Derby record and I can’t endorse him to win the race but will use him on the bottom end of my exotic wagers based mainly on his ability.

3 – Materiality 12/1 Javier Castellano (0-8) Todd Pletcher (1-40)

Notes: He is famously looking to become the first horse to win the Derby without having run as a juvenile since Apollo did so in 1882. He’s run just three times and while he has won them all and sports the highest Beyer Speed Figure of any runner in this event, I feel like he has certainly benefited from others’ misfortunes. In his second start, fellow Derby runner/stablemate Stanford bore out on the backside and made his job a whole lot easier while I think he should have been DQed in his latest, the Florida Derby, for interference with Upstart in the stretch. His connections win everything in sight but haven’t had the greatest success here. Like Carpe Diem, the post position does him no favor but it’s not as bad since he figured to be a part of the expected hot pace even before they drew the pills. Ultimately, I think his lack of seasoning will do him in against this salty bunch but wouldn’t hold using him in your exotics against you.

4 – Tencendur 30/1 Manny Franco (Debut) George Weaver (Debut)

Notes: One of three New York breds in here looking to follow in the steps of 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide, the only horse bred in the Empire State to win the Derby thus far. Like 2005 winner Giacomo, this guy comes into this still eligible for an entry level allowance contest. Weaver added blinkers two starts back in the Gotham and he took a ton of action but was inexplicably taken off the pace. Last out he was involved much earlier on and he ran a bang up second behind Frosted in the Wood Memorial. Still, he lacks accomplishments and his pedigree is suspect, to put it nicely, in regards to getting this trip. He’s not for me.

5 – Danzig Moon 30/1 Julien Leparoux (0-7) Mark Casse (0-7)

Notes: Another with just a maiden tally under his belt from five starts, he’s gotten a lot of attention in Louisville this past week as many are impressed with his appearance and how he has trained. He’s chased Carpe Diem in his last two, the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass, and needs to make up several lengths on him to even think about being a major player in here. Frankly, I’ve never been a fan and don’t understand all of the attention. Even if you’re a longshot player there are far more attractive options in here. I’m passing.

6 – Mubtaahij 20/1 Christophe Soumillon (Debut) Mike de Kock (Debut)

Notes: Ships in from Dubai looking to become the first horse to win the Derby via the UAE Derby. He’s four for five on dirt, beat older horses as a juvenile in his maiden win and has won twice at 1 3/16 miles. The last horse to win twice past nine furlongs going into this was Canonero II back in 1971 and he was victorious. He sat behind a wall of speed horses last out, took dirt for about six furlongs then exploded home to win by eight lengths once he was shown daylight. He admittedly didn’t beat much and his time was ordinary but he looked amazing doing it. He’s trained by one of the sharpest guy in the world who has won races on four different continents. He’s handled all of the travel brilliantly, has put the weight that he lost back on since his arrival and should work out a fantastic trip from this post. I think he’ll come down from that big morning line price but will still be between 12-1 and 15-1.

7 - El Kabeir 30/1 Calvin Borel (3-12) John Terranova, III( 0-1)

Notes: Was one of the feel-good stories of the winter as Chuckie Lopez subbed for Borel in the Jerome, won, then did a fine job with him all winter long before getting sacked by Zayat after the third place finish in the Wood Memorial. This colt toughed it out all winter in NY and missed some training because of the weather but still ran four times and ran well. Kudos to Terranova. Unfortunately, this isn’t the inner track at Aqueduct and Frosted handled him easily last out. He does own a win over the course but a lot, mainly his change in running style from a front runner to a closer, has changed since then and I just think he’s a cut or two below the best ones in here.

8 – Dortmund 3/1 Martin Garcia (0-3) Bob Baffert (3-24)

Notes: He’s a perfect six for six, has won at three different racetracks, including this one, at four different distances from on the lead and off the pace. He’s a monster in stature, his sire Big Brown won the race in 2008 and is trained by a Hall of Famer with three Derby wins under his belt. There really wasn’t anything not to like until this week when he started misbehaving while schooling in the Churchill paddock. He acted up Wednesday and again on Thursday to a lesser degree, actions that will make Baffert saddle him on the walking path and not in a paddock stall. It makes you wonder: if he’s pulling some antics in front of a few hundred people, what’s going to happen when 140,000 people are singing My Old Kentucky Home? Now, I’m not going to tell you to toss him because of it. He’s a real contender in here, if not the entire Triple Crown. If you play multi-race wagers, he is a must use. If you don’t and you’re just betting the race itself, keep an eye on him wherever you watch the race. Listen to what people are saying on radio, TV, social media and act accordingly. But throw him completely out at your own peril.

9 – Bolo 30/1 Rafael Bejarano (0-9) Carla Gaines (0-1)

Notes: Made a serious run at Dortmund in the San Felipe, his first start on dirt and off a 10 week layoff then couldn’t muster a solid rally when third in the Santa Anita Derby last out, an effort that in part led his trainer and his former rider Mike Smith, who won two turf races aboard him, to say he was better suited for the turf. That’s enough for me to be turned off. Only reason he is here is because the owners have Derby Fever and that is the worst reason of all to run. I’m passing on him.

10 - Firing Line 12/1 Gary Stevens (3-20) Simon Callaghan (Debut)

Notes: He’s the only horse in here trying to win off of a six week break between races, an angle I am not fond of. Plus, he’s only run twice this year. He did give Dortmund all he could handle in the Los Alamitos Futurity and the Robert Lewis, a race in which he actually opened up a length lead in the stretch before his foe came back to get him along the rail. Callaghan was so annoyed at losing two decisions by a head that he got his charge away from Dortmund and took him to New Mexico, where he promptly won the Sunland Derby by a stones’ throw. My issues are his running style, since I think he does his best running on the front end which is already plenty crowded and his pedigree, which isn’t very appealing. He does get Stevens but I am really turned off by the amount of time between races. I’m gonna pass.

11 – Stanford SCR SCRATCHED SCRATCHED

Notes: He’ll be scratched and will point towards the Peter Pan at Belmont on May 8th or the Preakness on May 15th at Pimlico.

12 - International Star 20/1 Miguel Mena (0-1) Mike Maker (0-8)

Notes: He led all runners in Derby points with 171 after winning all three of his preps this year down at the Fair Grounds. He showed his cool when he was able to get himself off of the rail to win the LeComte once outside of horses, his courage when he made his way through an opening along the rail to win by a length and his determination last out when Stanford dug his heels in before he finally got to the money in the Louisiana Derby. Those are all tremendous qualities in a racehorse, especially one running for the roses. He’s a tad on the slow side and I’m not enamored with his connections in this spot but I’m willing to look past those things because of his other redeeming qualities. His sire won this in 2000 and he’s always gaining ground at the end of his races so the distance shouldn’t be an issue. Using him in all of my exotic wagers.

13 – Itsaknockout 30/1 Luis Saez (0-2) Todd Pletcher (1-40)

Notes: I’ll give his connections this: they’ve done a great job at getting him some exposure by having him wear a blanket promoting the Mayweather fight, with his name and all. He was technically undefeated going into the Florida Derby but I think the disqualification of Upstart in the Fountain of Youth, one that resulted in this guy getting the win, was a joke. And I think that point was proven last time when he finished nearly 20 lengths behind his rival. Based on his last two starts, it looks like a one turn mile will be his best game. The Pat Day Mile on the undercard would have been a great spot for him but, once again, Derby Fever kicked in. An easy toss.

14 - Keen Ice 50/1 Kent Desormeaux (3-18) Dale Romans (0-5)

Notes: He’s won just one of his seven starts and finished third in two others, including the Risen Star two starts back. He comes from far back and should benefit from the probable hot pace, plus his pedigree cries out for this trip. Also, his lone win came at Churchill Downs. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he is slow, he exits some of the slower preps and is getting his sixth different rider, albeit one that has won three of these. Normally, I like to see some consistency and continuity when it comes to horses I use in the Derby and while I doubt he can win this I feel like he can grab a share based on his running style. Using him on the bottom half of my exotics.

15 – Frosted 15/1 Joel Rosario (1-5) Kiaran McLaughlin (0-5)

Notes: I can’t say enough about the job McLaughlin did with him between the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial. He turned for home in the Fountain of Youth with a two length lead and appeared to be on cruise control. 15 seconds later he was fourth. So Kiaran deconstructed this colt. He discovered a breathing problem so he had a minor, common throat surgery performed. He fiddled with the newly added blinkers. He changed riders to Rosario. The result: a hand ride victory in the Wood Memorial where he closed from last into a slow pace while racing widest of all. The scratch moves him from the first stall of the auxiliary gate to the last stall of the main gate but that shouldn’t be an issue since he’ll still have a bit of wiggle room leaving out of there. It’ll just be on his right side as opposed to his left. His outside draw was key, in my opinion, because he doesn’t seem to like being inside of horses. That shouldn’t be a problem from this post. I’m using him in all of my wagers, especially at that price.

16 - War Story 50/1 Joe Talamo (0-1) Tom Amoss (0-3)

Notes: Boy, did I love this guy earlier in the year. He won both of his starts last year, then ran a good second in the LeComte before a wide trip in the Risen Star where he had to settle for place money again. He was primed to turn the tables on International Star in the Louisiana Derby. He broke well, was in contention and appeared poised to pounce on the far turn and then….nothing. He didn’t fire one bit. I watched the replay a few times and I’ve come to the conclusion that he just doesn’t want any part of the distance. AND they are taking the blinkers off, a big no-no in my book. Why would you make an equipment change in the Kentucky Derby? He’s not getting any of my money.

17 - Mr. Z 50/1 Ramon Vazquez (Debut) D Wayne Lukas (4-47)

Notes: You know, maybe Zayat will scratch him and El Kabeir so American Pharoah can move in a couple of spots. That would be the smartest thing they could do. Scratch. This horse doesn’t belong and the only reason he is here is because his owner and trainer have enormous egos and just love seeing their names in those proverbial lights. Nothing more than a pace player.

18 - American Pharoah 5/2 Victor Espinoza (2-6) Bob Baffert (3-24)

Notes: Your morning line favorite is a three time grade 1 winner and comes into this off of a pair of blowout scores at Oaklawn in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, a race in which he sat off a pacesetter for the first time in his career. He’s getting all of the attention, with folks in his home state of California going as far as to compare him to Seattle Slew, a horse who went through the Triple Crown undefeated in 1977. I think they’re out of their minds. This horse hasn’t really beaten much, something you can say about all of them, but the difference is he’s 5/2 on the board and the rest are going to be much higher. He’s been racing and training in a shoe that has a bar on it to protect part of the injured hoof that forced him to miss the B.C. Juvenile last year. His connections are downplaying it, going as far as to say it’s not a big deal or even a bar shoe. But it is and it is. They’ve been playing catch-up all year, as Baffert crammed a bunch of works into him in February in order to have him ready for the Rebel. This will be his third race in seven weeks after being off over five months and they want him to go this distance with a bar shoe. I’m not saying he’s not an excellent mover or that he isn’t talented. He absolutely is. I probably don’t think as highly of him as most do but he is a good horse. I just think this is too much to ask of him. This field offers a ton of value and is as deep as they come. Using him on the bottom of my exotics based solely on his raw ability but I’m hoping he’s off the board.

19 – Upstart 15/1 Jose Ortiz (0-1) Rick Violette, Jr. (0-2)

Notes: Another who came into the season with a large bandwagon and they had to be ecstatic after his daylight score to start the year in the Holy Bull. But things have gotten strange since. He looked beat on the far turn in the Fountain of Youth before eventually picking up the pieces to win by almost three lengths but was erroneously disqualified from the win. Things got even stranger in the Florida Derby when he was interfered with in the stretch and the stewards didn’t even look at it while his rider was told he was too late to claim foul. Needless to say the Gulfstream Park stewards and this guy’s connections won’t be sending Christmas cards to each other this year. My biggest problems with him are the fact that he had every chance to get by Materiality last time before getting bothered but couldn’t and he missed some time a few weeks back after spiking a fever. Everything needs to go perfectly this time of year and they haven’t. For those reasons, I’m out.

20 - Far Right 30/1 Mike Smith (1-20) Ron Moquett (Debut)

Notes: Looked good winning his first two starts of the year from far back at Arkansas and has shown the ability to get through traffic and win along the inside, great qualities in such a large field. His deep closer running style fits Smith, who won this in that manner with Giacomo back in 2005 at 50-1, and the post is no big deal because of it. American Pharoah beat him by eight lengths last out but Smith said he wasn’t going to catch the winner so he made sure he got the place money and the points. He’s run three times over the course, including a maiden tally and should benefit from the hot pace. Would need everything to break perfectly to win it, and I’m not saying he will, but stranger things have happened. Using him in all of my exotic wagers.

21 – Frammento 50/1 Corey Nakatani (0-17) Nick Zito (2-25)

Notes: Zito really wanted to get him in and got his wish when Pletcher scratched Stanford Thursday afternoon. He’s won just once in seven tries but has run better since adding blinkers two back when he was third in the Fountain of Youth and the only horse really running at the end. Zito has been saying he is a true 10 furlong horse. I will use him on the bottom half of my exotics.

22 – Tale of Verve AE B.J. Hernandez, Jr. (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-2)

Notes: From the trainer that brought you your last two longshot Derby runner-ups, Golden Soul and Commanding Curve, he finally broke his maiden in start six last out going 1 3/16 miles at Keeneland. Wasn’t even mentioned in the same breath as the Derby until entry day. I can see why. He needs another scratch to get in and about 15 more after that to have a chance at hitting the board.