The Bum's Best Bets ForTuesiday April 21st - MLB - NBA -NHL !

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Tuesday, April 21


Wind, possible showers at Pittsburgh Tuesday

According to weather forecasts, there is a 35 percent possibility of showers at PNC Park in Pittsburgh Tuesday. The Pirates host the Chicago Cubs in an evening matchup.

Furthermore, wind will blow out to left field at roughly 15 miles per hour during game time.

The Pirates are presently priced at -150 and oddsmakers have a total of 7 on the game.


Astros red-hot when McHugh gets the start

The Houston Astros have won their past seven games when Collin McHugh takes the first pitch for the team. McHugh has been lights out in his past seven starts, two this season, as he has allowed just 1.3 runs per outing while posting over six strikeouts per game.

So far this season, McHugh has a 1.54 ERA with a 15/2 K/BB ratio.

Houston is currently -110 when they travel to Seattle Tuesday.


Braves look to continue strong road play Tuesday

The Atlanta Braves travel to Citi Field for their midweek series with the New York Mets having posted a solid 5-1 record on the road this season.

The Braves lone loss came in Toronto after a late game collapse saw the team drop a four run led. Despite that speed bump, the Braves have outscored their hosting opponents 34-18 so far this year.

Atlanta is currently +140 when they clash with the red-hot Mets Tuesday.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, April 21

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MIAMI (3 - 10) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 9) - 7:05 PM
DAN HAREN (R) vs. JEROME WILLIAMS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 3-10 (-8.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MIAMI is 3-10 (-8.6 Units) against the money line in April games this season.
MIAMI is 3-10 (-8.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
HAREN is 178-174 (-39.0 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
HAREN is 62-80 (-41.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
HAREN is 165-168 (-45.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
HAREN is 118-120 (-33.5 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
HAREN is 16-24 (-15.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WILLIAMS is 8-3 (+9.5 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MIAMI is 18-8 (+12.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 81-84 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off since 1997.
PHILADELPHIA is 105-109 (-34.4 Units) against the money line in home games in April games since 1997.
PHILADELPHIA is 67-85 (-27.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

DAN HAREN vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
HAREN is 1-5 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.328.
His team's record is 1-9 (-9.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-6. (-3.2 units)

JEROME WILLIAMS vs. MIAMI since 1997
WILLIAMS is 0-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 1.667.
His team's record is 0-3 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.8 units)

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ST LOUIS (8 - 3) at WASHINGTON (6 - 7) - 7:05 PM
LANCE LYNN (R) vs. GIO GONZALEZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 2-9 (-8.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 15-30 (-18.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 76-104 (-42.3 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997.
LYNN is 4-13 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
WASHINGTON is 30-10 (+16.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
GONZALEZ is 107-74 (+28.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

LANCE LYNN vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
LYNN is 3-0 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.37 and a WHIP of 0.895.
His team's record is 3-0 (+3.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

GIO GONZALEZ vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
GONZALEZ is 2-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 2.18 and a WHIP of 1.091.
His team's record is 3-2 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.4 units)

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CHICAGO CUBS (7 - 5) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 7) - 7:05 PM
TRAVIS WOOD (L) vs. FRANCISCO LIRIANO (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1394-1558 (-279.5 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 187-248 (-85.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1337-1471 (-254.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 56-91 (-29.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 683-683 (-153.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
PITTSBURGH is 191-153 (+26.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 132-90 (+32.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 358-367 (+47.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against PITTSBURGH this season
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.0 Units)

TRAVIS WOOD vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
WOOD is 4-7 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.305.
His team's record is 4-9 (-4.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-6. (-0.2 units)

FRANCISCO LIRIANO vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
LIRIANO is 4-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.30 and a WHIP of 1.024.
His team's record is 6-3 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-3. (+2.4 units)

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ATLANTA (8 - 4) at NY METS (10 - 3) - 7:10 PM
TREVOR CAHILL (R) vs. JON NIESE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY METS are 89-86 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 25-13 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 89-86 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 25-12 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 49-30 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 307-320 (-85.6 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-1 (+0.9 Units) against NY METS this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.0 Units)

TREVOR CAHILL vs. NY METS since 1997
CAHILL is 0-1 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

JON NIESE vs. ATLANTA since 1997
NIESE is 7-6 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 3.36 and a WHIP of 1.447.
His team's record is 9-10 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-9. (-2.4 units)

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CINCINNATI (6 - 7) at MILWAUKEE (2 - 11) - 8:10 PM
JASON MARQUIS (R) vs. MICHAEL FIERS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 47-67 (-20.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 691-780 (+40.8 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 502-564 (+35.3 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 344-363 (+40.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a win since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 385-336 (+63.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
MILWAUKEE is 2-11 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 43-45 (-17.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 2-11 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in April games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 38-48 (-14.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 2-11 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MILWAUKEE is 39-50 (-17.2 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

JASON MARQUIS vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
MARQUIS is 5-12 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 5.79 and a WHIP of 1.580.
His team's record is 7-14 (-11.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-12. (-7.2 units)

MICHAEL FIERS vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
FIERS is 1-3 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.09 and a WHIP of 1.029.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-4. (-4.3 units)

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SAN DIEGO (9 - 5) at COLORADO (7 - 6) - 8:40 PM
BRANDON MORROW (R) vs. TYLER MATZEK (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 10-26 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
MORROW is 2-11 (-12.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday since 1997. (Team's Record)
SAN DIEGO is 51-46 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 49-78 (-28.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 (+1.4 Units) against COLORADO this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

BRANDON MORROW vs. COLORADO since 1997
MORROW is 0-1 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.00 and a WHIP of 1.667.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

TYLER MATZEK vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
MATZEK is 1-3 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 3.67 and a WHIP of 1.222.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.2 units)

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LA DODGERS (9 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 10) - 10:15 PM
BRETT ANDERSON (L) vs. TIM LINCECUM (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ANDERSON is 7-17 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in April games since 1997. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 1025-860 (+112.4 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 718-708 (+43.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 51-27 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

BRETT ANDERSON vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
ANDERSON is 0-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 5.25 and a WHIP of 1.417.
His team's record is 1-2 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+0.8 units)

TIM LINCECUM vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
LINCECUM is 8-7 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.18 and a WHIP of 1.324.
His team's record is 15-9 (+6.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 12-11. (-0.3 units)

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BALTIMORE (7 - 6) at TORONTO (6 - 7) - 7:05 PM
BUD NORRIS (R) vs. MARK BUEHRLE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
BUEHRLE is 23-11 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BUEHRLE is 160-83 (+51.4 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
BUEHRLE is 65-31 (+29.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)
BUEHRLE is 107-58 (+32.1 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
BUEHRLE is 27-12 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
BUEHRLE is 80-42 (+26.9 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
BALTIMORE is 107-76 (+36.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 52-40 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 17-6 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 55-35 (+22.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 77-42 (+40.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 46-29 (+19.5 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 48-31 (+16.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NORRIS is 21-11 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NORRIS is 14-2 (+12.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NORRIS is 15-6 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NORRIS is 19-9 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TORONTO is 13-20 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in home games in April games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 2-1 (+1.1 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.1 Units)

BUD NORRIS vs. TORONTO since 1997
NORRIS is 4-1 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 4.10 and a WHIP of 1.473.
His team's record is 6-1 (+5.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-3. (+1.0 units)

MARK BUEHRLE vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
BUEHRLE is 9-10 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.68 and a WHIP of 1.316.
His team's record is 12-11 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 11-11. (-1.1 units)

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NY YANKEES (6 - 7) at DETROIT (11 - 2) - 7:05 PM
NATHAN EOVALDI (R) vs. KYLE LOBSTEIN (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 6-18 (-16.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last 2 seasons.
EOVALDI is 10-25 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
EOVALDI is 3-14 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
EOVALDI is 10-25 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 11-2 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 11-2 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in April games this season.
DETROIT is 11-2 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 44-42 (-13.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

NATHAN EOVALDI vs. DETROIT since 1997
EOVALDI is 0-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

KYLE LOBSTEIN vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
LOBSTEIN is 0-0 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.833.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

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BOSTON (8 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (6 - 7) - 7:10 PM
WADE MILEY (L) vs. CHRIS ARCHER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 79-97 (-26.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 35-49 (-16.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 33-47 (-19.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 560-644 (+12.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997.
TAMPA BAY is 83-92 (-27.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 37-50 (-30.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 10-17 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Tuesday over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 37-50 (-30.6 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 53-61 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 44-56 (-28.8 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 20-27 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 21-30 (-19.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

WADE MILEY vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
MILEY is 2-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 0.68 and a WHIP of 1.050.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

CHRIS ARCHER vs. BOSTON since 1997
ARCHER is 1-4 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 6.03 and a WHIP of 1.805.
His team's record is 3-4 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-3. (+0.7 units)

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MINNESOTA (5 - 8) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 3) - 8:10 PM
TOM MILONE (L) vs. JASON VARGAS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 110-80 (+18.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 106-77 (+16.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 78-54 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 65-45 (+15.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 234-205 (+40.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday since 1997.
MILONE is 55-31 (+24.1 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
MILONE is 28-18 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
MILONE is 53-29 (+23.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
MILONE is 39-16 (+24.4 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
MILONE is 26-14 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 34-36 (-19.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 (+0.2 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)

TOM MILONE vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
MILONE is 4-2 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 4.14 and a WHIP of 1.355.
His team's record is 5-2 (+3.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-3. (-0.4 units)

JASON VARGAS vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
VARGAS is 5-4 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 4.04 and a WHIP of 1.533.
His team's record is 7-6 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-7. (-3.2 units)

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CLEVELAND (4 - 8) at CHI WHITE SOX (5 - 7) - 8:10 PM
CARLOS CARRASCO (R) vs. HECTOR NOESI (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 14-25 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 2 seasons.
NOESI is 13-8 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 101-55 (+34.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 32-49 (-20.4 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHI WHITE SOX is 2-1 (+1.2 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.0 Units)

CARLOS CARRASCO vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
CARRASCO is 2-5 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 5.54 and a WHIP of 1.327.
His team's record is 3-6 (-3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-4. (+0.4 units)

HECTOR NOESI vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
NOESI is 1-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.55 and a WHIP of 1.224.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.3 units)

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OAKLAND (7 - 7) at LA ANGELS (5 - 8) - 10:05 PM
DREW POMERANZ (L) vs. HECTOR SANTIAGO (L)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 95-82 (-18.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 44-43 (-17.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 47-46 (-19.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 78-42 (+28.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
SANTIAGO is 17-32 (-16.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
SANTIAGO is 17-32 (-16.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
SANTIAGO is 1-9 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 (+1.5 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

DREW POMERANZ vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
POMERANZ is 1-0 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 1.135.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

HECTOR SANTIAGO vs. OAKLAND since 1997
SANTIAGO is 2-0 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 0.91 and a WHIP of 1.045.
His team's record is 3-2 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.4 units)

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HOUSTON (7 - 6) at SEATTLE (5 - 8) - 10:10 PM
COLLIN MCHUGH (R) vs. TAIJUAN WALKER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 41-45 (+10.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 80-89 (-30.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 80-89 (-30.4 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 1-8 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SEATTLE is 25-33 (-20.0 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 (+1.9 Units) against SEATTLE this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

COLLIN MCHUGH vs. SEATTLE since 1997
MCHUGH is 3-2 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 4.11 and a WHIP of 0.913.
His team's record is 3-2 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+0.9 units)

TAIJUAN WALKER vs. HOUSTON since 1997
WALKER is 3-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.91 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 3-1 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)

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TEXAS (5 - 8) at ARIZONA (7 - 6) - 9:40 PM
NICK MARTINEZ (R) vs. CHASE ANDERSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 72-103 (-21.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 22-44 (-23.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 46-80 (-31.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 46-70 (-19.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 71-104 (-28.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 747-657 (-87.3 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
ARIZONA is 195-231 (-59.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday since 1997.
ARIZONA is 71-104 (-28.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 53-78 (-23.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 25-45 (-20.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NICK MARTINEZ vs. ARIZONA since 1997
No recent starts.

CHASE ANDERSON vs. TEXAS since 1997
No recent starts.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

-- Running a 26-mile marathon seems unhealthy; then again, if I drive 26 miles, I'm looking for a Wendy's drive-thru window.

-- Cubs face Francisco Liriano tonight, their first game against a lefty starter- they also brought up infield prospect Addison Russell, who will play 2B..

-- North Carolina PG Marcus Paige had his ankle scoped this week; he didn't do lot of practicing this season.

-- San Jose Sharks "fired" Todd McLellan after seven years; he was 311-163-66 as Sharks' coach, but never made the Stanley Cup finals. No one quits these jobs.

-- Why would Oklahoma City fire Scott Brooks? Is it his fault his players were hurt all season? Sometimes coaching an NBA team seems like running an asylum. He has not been fired yet, but rumors are they want to hire Kevin Ollie.

-- Jimmy Butler scored 31 points for the Bulls last night; he didn't have a D-I scholarship offer coming out of high school. He went to Tyler JC for a year, then went to Marquette. Life is funny sometimes.

**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud..........

13) Losing isn't fun; Cincinnati Reds' manager Brian Price went on a 5:34 tirade against a sportswriter, complete with 77 F-bombs and 11 other expletives. My first thought on this was: the season is two weeks old and the guy sounds like he's going to have a nervous breakdown. He might not be cut out for the job.

12) Seriously, 77 F-bombs in 5:34 is tremendous and he got off to a slow start. Worst thing about the whole thing is that his basic point is wrong; its the job of the reporter to give out news on the team. If a manager can't deal with this being the age of instant news via social media, then he shouldn't have the job he has. If he doesn't start winning soon, he won't have it anyway.

11) Sad day for a couple of tough guys: Doug Buffone, 71 and Bob St Clair, 84 two very tough men, passed away Monday. Buffone was a LB for the Bears with Dick Butkus, St Clair was a Hall of Famer for the 49ers. RIP fellas.

10) Anaheim Ducks are first team in NHL history to lead a playoff series 3-0 when they trailed all three games in the third period. Ottawa is down 3-0 in its series with Montreal, losing last two games in OT- they led all three games after the first period.

9) Woman was standing behind the plate in Pittsburgh last night; a foul ball hit the net, the net gave way a little and the ball hit the lady square in the side of the head. She was taken away on a stretcher after a 15-minute delay- can you say "personal injury lawsuit"?

8) Steve Spurrier turned 70 years old this week, is still going strong, playing golf and coaching the Gamecocks. He's had a tremendous career.

7) Adrian Peterson will make $765,000 a game this season, $15M in 2016, $17M in 2017; will another team take a chance on such an expensive player in his 30's? Peterson hasn't played since Week 1 of last season.

6) Kyle Wiltjer is coming back to Gonzaga next year, Jakob Poeltl is coming back to Utah, great news for both those teams.

5) Couple transfers to note: PG Ricky Tarrant goes from Alabama to Memphis and Evan Payne goes from LMU to Long Beach State.

4) Rumors say the Marlins will hire Wally Backman as manager if they can Mike Redmond; Backman is a fiery type who has done well in the minors, but Redmond is highly respected. Two weeks is a little quick to be firing people.

3) 15 of 30 current major league managers caught in the big leagues.

2) Ranger-Penguin series is first time since 2009 Stanley Cup finals that the Penguins haven't had home ice advantage in a series- thats ten series ago.

1) NFL schedule comes out tonight at 8:00; as Bud Grant used to say, "Its not who you play, its when you play them." Steelers-Patriots is early favorite to be the Thursday night season opener.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, April 21


Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Game 721-722
April 21, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston Celtics
121.777
Cleveland Cavalie
126.919
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland Cavalie
by 5
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland Cavalie
by 11 1/2
207
Dunkel Pick:
Boston Celtics
(+11 1/2); Over

Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors

Game 723-724
April 21, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington Wizard
119.861
Toronto Raptors
121.456
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto Raptors
by 1 1/2
197
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto Raptors
by 5
191 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington Wizard
(+5); Over

Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets

Game 725-726
April 21, 2015 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas Mavericks
120.527
Houston Rockets
132.494
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston Rockets
by 12
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston Rockets
by 5 1/2
215 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston Rockets
(-5 1/2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, April 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (40 - 43) at CLEVELAND (54 - 29) - 4/21/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 48-34 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games this season.
BOSTON is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) second half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 32-21 ATS (+8.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 6-6 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-5 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (47 - 36) at TORONTO (49 - 34) - 4/21/2015, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 35-45 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 17-28 ATS (-13.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
WASHINGTON is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
WASHINGTON is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
WASHINGTON is 80-55 ATS (+19.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 37-45 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 40-62 ATS (-28.2 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.
TORONTO is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TORONTO is 158-199 ATS (-60.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 7-5 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-4 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
9 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (50 - 33) at HOUSTON (57 - 26) - 4/21/2015, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 34-45 ATS (-15.5 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
DALLAS is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) second half of the season this season.
DALLAS is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after a division game this season.
DALLAS is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
DALLAS is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DALLAS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
DALLAS is 18-31 ATS (-16.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
DALLAS is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
HOUSTON is 49-33 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
HOUSTON is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games this season.
HOUSTON is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) second half of the season this season.
HOUSTON is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
HOUSTON is 28-18 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
HOUSTON is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
DALLAS is 75-51 ATS (+18.9 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games in April games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 224-180 ATS (+26.0 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
DALLAS is 172-133 ATS (+25.7 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
DALLAS is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 7-6 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 7-6 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, April 21

Cleveland won seven of last nine games overall, covering two of its last seven; they were 13-31 on arc, 26-33 on line in Game 1 win, as Irving was on court for 41 minutes, James 42, with extra day rest before this game. Boston won/covered eight of its last ten games overall; they had only three fast break points in Game 1, were -12 on the boards- Celtic subs scored 55 of their 100 points, which is not good. Boston starters were a combined -53.

Washington was only road team to win Game 1 in their series; Wiz held Toronto to 38% from floor in game with total of only 29 FTs, by far fewest of any playoff game so far. Raptor starters were 0-11 on arc for game; DeRozan/Lowry combined to shoot 8-30- they dropped to 0-7 in Game 1's of first round series. Wizards snapped a 3-game road losing streak with Game 1 win; Toronto lost two of last three at home; five of their last six games stayed under total.

Houston won five of last six games with Dallas; four of last five series games stayed under total. Rockets won seven of last nine overall; six of their last seven games went over. Dallas is 4-2 in its last six games; nine of its last ten went over. Rockets had 29 fast break points in Game 1, were 10-25 on arc, 32-45 on the foul line-- how this game is officiated is obviously a key, seeing as Dallas was just 14-17 on line. FG%'s generally go down in Game 2's.

Home favorites are 6-4 in this round; over is 3-7.

2015 playoffs
Brooklyn vs Atlanta
Atl 99-92, -10, U201.5

Boston vs Cleveland
Clev 113-100, -11.5, O203

Milwaukee vs Chicago
Chi 103-91, -8, O186
Chi 91-82, -8, U190.5

Washington vs Toronto
Wash 93-86 OT, +4, U194.5

New Orleans vs Golden State
GSt 106-99, -12, U205
GSt 97-87, -13, U206.5

Dallas vs Houston
Hst 118-108, -5.5, O212.5

San Antonio vs LA Clippers
LA 107-92, -1.5, U207

Portland vs Memphis
Mem 100-86, -5.5, U188.5

East vs West
SU: West 242-177 ATS: West 214-202-3
East teams HF vs West: 56-57
East teams HU vs West: 46-52
West teams HF vs East: 81-79-3
West teams HU vs East: 24-21




NBA

Tuesday, April 21

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
BOSTON vs. CLEVELAND
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Boston
Cleveland is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing Boston

8:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
Toronto is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games at home

9:30 PM
DALLAS vs. HOUSTON
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Tuesday, April 21


Under bets cash in Monday's playoff action

Both of the NBA's playoff games finished under the closing total Monday evening, with six of the first 10 games of the postseason finishing south of the total.

Over the past two days, Under wagers have gone 5-1 on the hard wood.

There are three games on the board Tuesday.


Al Horford, Atlanta - Prob Wed

Horford suffered a dislocated finger during Sunday's game but will likely play in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals against the Nets.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL
Long Sheet

Tuesday, April 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (51-25-0-8, 110 pts.) at DETROIT (44-26-0-14, 102 pts.) - 4/21/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 6-13 ATS (-9.7 Units) in road games after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
TAMPA BAY is 22-7 ATS (+11.5 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 176-189 ATS (+405.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.
DETROIT is 21-25 ATS (-8.8 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 10-16 ATS (-7.2 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 3-8 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing with 2 days rest this season.
DETROIT is 11-21 ATS (-21.6 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
DETROIT is 87-95 ATS (-80.7 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 8-3 (+4.3 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 8-3-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.4 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (46-27-0-12, 104 pts.) at NY ISLANDERS (49-29-0-7, 105 pts.) - 4/21/2015, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY ISLANDERS are 23-10 ATS (+8.3 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
WASHINGTON is 26-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
NY ISLANDERS are 29-35 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 57-86 ATS (-32.7 Units) in home games on Tuesday nights since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY ISLANDERS is 7-7 (+0.3 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY ISLANDERS is 7-7-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.2 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NASHVILLE (48-26-0-11, 107 pts.) at CHICAGO (50-29-0-6, 106 pts.) - 4/21/2015, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 1-6 ATS (-6.7 Units) in April games this season.
NASHVILLE is 8-14 ATS (-11.5 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
NASHVILLE is 8-16 ATS (-10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
CHICAGO is 47-16 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 187-147 ATS (+36.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
CHICAGO is 25-23 ATS (-9.0 Units) second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 11-6 (+1.5 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 11-6-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.1 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VANCOUVER (49-31-0-5, 103 pts.) at CALGARY (47-31-0-7, 101 pts.) - 4/21/2015, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 41-50 ATS (-19.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 47-38 ATS (+86.4 Units) in all games this season.
CALGARY is 26-20 ATS (+1.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
CALGARY is 24-8 ATS (+14.5 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
CALGARY is 21-10 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a division game this season.
VANCOUVER is 124-113 ATS (+245.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 21-15 ATS (+36.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CALGARY is 3-14 ATS (+18.8 Units) when leading in a playoff series since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 12-5 (+5.3 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
VANCOUVER is 12-5-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.5 Units, Under=-0.5 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, April 21

Tampa Bay outshot Detroit 76-38 in first two games, 31-10 in third period; they went 2-4 on power play in Game 2, after being outscored 1-0 on seven power plays in Game 1. Lightning won eight of their last 11 games with Detroit- seven of those 11 stayed under the total. Tampa Bay won four of its last five games overall, allowing nine goals; they split last four visits to Motor City. Under is 4-2-1 in Lightning's last seven games. Red Wings lost three of last four at home.

Islanders scored 0:15 into OT Sunday, 6th-fastest OT goal in NHL history; they're 5-7 in last dozen games overall, with over 5-3-1 in last nine. Isles are 0-6 on power play in series-- only eight penalties total were called in last two games. Caps won six of their last ten games with over 7-3-1 in last 11- they outshot Islanders 24-14 in third period last two games, but Islanders outshot them 33-13 in first two periods Sunday. Home side won six of last seven series games. Isles are 3-2 in last five here.

Nashville lost eight of last nine games overall after 4-2 loss here Sunday; Predators lost five of last seven games with Chicago, with last four going over total- they'e 2-12 on power play in series, are down 2-1 despite not allowing third period goal in series. Chicago won last three series games in this building, with two of three going OT/SO; all three games in this playoff series have gone over total. Nashville lost its last three road games by combined score of 11-5.

Calgary finally scored couple of first period goals in 4-2 win Sunday; five of their seven series goals have come in third period, on 34 shots. Flames have now won seven of last ten games; under is 5-2-1 in last eight Calgary games. Home crowd helped underdog Flames in Game 3; they can gra commanding series lead here. Calgary won four of last five games with Vancouver, despite scoring eleven goals in four games. Vancouver is 2-7 on power play in series. Under is 3-1-2 in last five series games.

Home teams are 15-8 in this round; over is 11-8-4.

2015 NHL playoffs
Montreal vs Ottawa
Mtl 4-3, -$140, O5
Mtl 3-2 OT, -$140, N5
Mtl 2-1 OT, +$110, U5

Tampa Bay vs Detroit
Det 3-2, +$155, U5.5
TB 5-1, -$200, U5.5

NY Rangers vs Pittsburgh
NYR 2-1, -$180, U5
Pitt 4-3, +$175, O5
NYR 2-1, even U5

Washington vs NY Islanders
NYI 4-1, +125, N5
Wash 4-3, -$135, O5.5
NYI 2-1 OT, -$140, U5.5

St Louis vs Minnesota
Minn 4-2, +$125, O5
StL 4-1, -$140, N5
Minn 3-0, -$135, U5

Nashville vs Chicago
Chi 4-3 OT, +$105, O5
Nash 6-2, -$120, O5
Chi 4-2, -$160, O5

Anaheim vs Winnipeg
Ana 4-2, -$150, O5
Ana 2-1, -$150, U5
Ana 5-4 OT, +$120, O5

Vancouver vs Calgary
Cal 2-1, +$135, U5
Van 4-1, -$155, N5
Cal 4-2, -$115, O5




NHL

Tuesday, April 21

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Tampa Bay

7:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY ISLANDERS
Washington is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
NY Islanders are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
NY Islanders are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games at home

9:30 PM
NASHVILLE vs. CHICAGO
Nashville is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Nashville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Nashville

10:00 PM
VANCOUVER vs. CALGARY
Vancouver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Vancouver is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Calgary
Calgary is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Vancouver
Calgary is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

[StarDust Bum]

NHL

Tuesday, April 21

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday's NHL Playoffs betting cheat sheet
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings (-105, 5.5)

Series tied 1-1

Nikita Nesterov scored in the series opener before notching two assists on Saturday as Tampa Bay recorded its first postseason victory since 2011. The defenseman is riding a five-game point streak dating to the regular season, collecting two goals and four assists during the run after mustering just one and three, respectively, in his first 24 career contests. Tyler Johnson tallied twice in Game 2 after recording seven multi-goal performances in the regular season.

Coach Mike Babcock told reporters defenseman Brendan Smith will return to the lineup after being scratched since making a mental error against Montreal on April 9. "Tampa is a high-speed skating team, and when Smith plays, he can really skate with the puck, and he can keep up with their forwards," captain Henrik Zetterberg told the Detroit Free Press. "I think he's a good fit for the series." Smith sat out the regular-season finale and then saw rookie Alexey Marchenko play in his place to begin the series.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Detroit.
* Lightning are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
* Red Wings are 8-20 in their last 28 vs. Atlantic.


Washington Capitals at New York Islanders (-135, 5.5)

Islanders lead series 2-1

Eric Fehr will miss the next two games after suffering an upper-body injury on a hit from Kyle Okposo during his second shift of Sunday's tilt. "(Fehr) is out for the next two games, and we will re-evaluate after that," coach Barry Trotz said after Monday's practice. Captain Alex Ovechkin has scored just once in the series after netting a league-high 53 goals this season, while defensemen Mike Green and Matt Niskanen have notched two assists apiece.

With Travis Hamonic sidelined by a suspected left knee injury, fellow defenseman Johnny Boychuk has assumed the majority of the responsibility of keeping Ovechkin in line. "It's just your job," Boychuk told Newsday after blocking four shots in Game 3 and eight overall in the series. "(Ovechkin's) an excellent player, the best goal scorer in the game right now. You have to pay attention to him at all times. If you don't, you're probably going to be going home early." Defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky has notched two assists and is a team-best plus-4 in the series.

TRENDS:

* Islanders are 0-8 in their last eight games following a win.
* Home team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Over is 4-1-2 in Capitals last seven vs. Metropolitan.


Nashville Predators at Chicago Blackhawks (-165, 5.5)

Blackhawks lead series 2-1

With stud defenseman Weber sidelined due to an injury to his lower right leg, Nashville's top blue-line pairing of Roman Josi and Seth Jones each finished with a minus-3 and was unable to contain Chicago's No. 1 line of captain Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa and Brandon Saad, which accounted for five points Sunday. "You're facing the best defenseman in the league, and all of a sudden when he's not there, you have to take advantage of it," Hossa said. "I think that's what we did." Goaltender Pekka Rinne's late-season struggles have continued, allowing 24 goals over his last seven starts and four tallies in four of them.

Hossa finished third on the team in scoring with 61 points during the regular season and has thrived in the series, collecting a pair of assists in both Games 1 and 3 while registering a team-high six shots on goal Sunday. "He makes it seem a lot easier than it really is," Toews said of the 36-year-old Hossa. "To think of where you’ll be at if you have the chance to play as long as he has, how that might feel, I kind of cringe thinking about it. It is pretty impressive.” Andrew Desjardins, acquired from San Jose at the trade deadline, saw his first playoff action and notched his first tally since joining Chicago.

TRENDS:

* Predators are 1-4 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Blackhawks are 6-1 in their last seven Conference Quarterfinals games.


Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames (-120, 5)

Flames lead series 2-1

Alex Burrows will be in the lineup Tuesday as he avoided disciplinary action from the league for his part in the late antics of Game 3. The 34-year-old received an instigator penalty in the final five minutes of the contest, which normally warrants an automatic suspension, but the league has the right to lift the ban if several criteria for the penalty are not met - which was the case in Burrows' situation. A loss on Tuesday puts Vancouver in a 3-1 series hole, but a victory evens the matchup and regains home-ice advantage for the club - a fact not lost on Kevin Bieksa. "We'll come in and play a nice, solid road game, hopefully get the two points, and momentum will be on our side going back home," he said.

The goals by Brodie and Monahan in Game 3 were the first of their postseason careers, but Bennett's tally was even more special - it was his first in the NHL. "It's a moment that I've thought about for a very long time," said the 18-year-old, whose goal turned out to be the game-winner. "It definitely feels great to get it out of the way. I couldn't have dreamed a better situation." The fourth overall pick in the 2014 draft, Bennett became the second-youngest player in team history to score a playoff goal at 18 years, 303 days - six days older than Jarome Iginla.

TRENDS:

* Canucks are 1-4 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 11-3-3 in the last 17 meetings in Calgary.
* Flames are 21-6 in their last 27 vs. Pacific

[StarDust Bum]

NHL

Tuesday, April 21


Blues continue horrendous road play in playoffs

With a 2-0 loss to the Minnesota Wild Monday, the St. Louis Blues stretch their playoff road losing streak to nine consecutive games. In those nine games, dating back to the Blues 2011-2012 playoff series with the LA Kings, St. Louis has been outscored 28-11.

Those nine games have seen the Blues shutout three times, while losing by two or more goals on five occasions.

Game 4 between the Blues and Wild take place Wednesday at the Xcel Energy Center.


Late-game collapses persist for the Jets

The Winnipeg Jets imploded yet again in their Game 3 loss the the Anaheim Ducks, which continues a startling trend. Through the first three games of their playoff series, the Jets have been outscored 7-0 after the second period.

What makes it even more painful, is that the Jets have led heading into the third period in every game so far in the series.

The Ducks now have a 3-0 series stranglehold, with Game 4 on Wednesday.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL
Dunkel

Tuesday, April 21


Nashville Predators @ Chicago Blackhawks

Game 61-62
April 21, 2015 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Nashville Predato
9.312
Chicago *********
12.265
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago *********
by 3
4 1/2
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago *********
-175
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago *********
(-175); Under

Vancouver Canucks @ Calgary Flames

Game 63-64
April 21, 2015 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vancouver Canucks
12.944
Calgary Flames
10.320
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vancouver Canucks
by 2 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary Flames
-120
5
Dunkel Pick:
Vancouver Canucks
(+100); Under

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Detroit Red Wings

Game 57-58
April 21, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay Lightni
10.324
Detroit Red Wings
11.404
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit Red Wings
by 1
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay Lightni
-125
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit Red Wings
(+105); Over

Washington Capitals @ New York Islanders

Game 59-60
April 21, 2015 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington Capita
10.163
New York Islander
12.761
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New York Islander
by 2 1/2
6 1/2
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New York Islander
-145
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New York Islander
(-145); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NHL

Tuesday, April 21


Blackhawks-Predators cashing Over tickets

The Over has gone a perfect 3-0 through the first three games of the series between the Chicago Blackhawks and Nashville Predators.

The teams have combined for 21 goals thus far in the series, with Game 2 registering eight goals in the Preds' 6-2 shellacking.

Oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly for Game 4, with books posting a total of 5.5.


Ovechkin, Capitals struggle in road playoff losses

The Washington Capitals continue their series with the New York Islanders while trying to cease their string of consecutive road playoff losses at six. The Caps have been outscored 20-13 during those road losses.

Alexander Ovechkin has been almost non-existent in those six games with just one assist, that came in the first game during that stretch, while posting a plus/minus of -2.

The Caps are +122 for Game 4 on Long Island Tuesday.

[StarDust Bum]

Cards travel to D.C.

April 21, 2015


ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (8-3) at WASHINGTON NATIONALS (6-7)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Washington -115, St. Louis +105, Total: 7

Two of the National League’s elite clubs, the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals, meet in the nation’s capitol this Tuesday night.

The Cardinals are having another solid start to a season and come into this game with wins in each of their past five games. In that time they have outscored opponents 21-6 while holding opposing offenses at two or fewer runs in each victory. They continued with their great play in a 2-1 win on Sunday which finished off a sweep of the Reds. St. Louis had just four hits in the win and took advantage of them with a solo homer off the bat of 3B Matt Carpenter and a double from OF Jon Jay; which led to a run-scoring sacrifice fly. Carpenter (.400) had a total of two hits in the game and added to his tremendous start to the campaign over the course of the Cincinnati series, going 6-for-12 with three runs, a homer and three RBIs and now has multiple hits in each of his last seven games.

The Nationals began the season as one of the favorites to win the World Series but haven’t exactly lived up to the expectations just yet with a loss in three of their first four series’. They have started to come around in the last week, though, as they finished off their series with Boston with a 10-5 win and proceeded to beat the Phillies three times in four contests. They scored 19 runs in the four contests and capped off the series win with a 4-1 win on Sunday where they tallied nine hits and were 3-for-10 with RISP. SS Ian Desmond (.314) has been the hottest hitter for this group and has a hit in each of his last six games, including going 9-for-19 with four runs and a double against the Reds.

The pitching matchup should be a good one as RHP Lance Lynn (1-1, 1.64 ERA) of the Cardinals goes up against LHP Gio Gonzalez (1-1, 5.11 ERA) of the host Nationals. St. Louis has absolutely destroyed Washington in the past two years, going 11-2 against them with each of the losses coming on the road (5-2). They won the last four contests against the Nationals, outscoring them 13-5 in that time as Washington failed to hit a ball out of the park. Some trends to watch include that the Cardinals are 51-22 (.699) after six consecutive games against division rivals since the start of the 2013 season as the Nationals have gone 30-10 (.750) when playing with a day off in the same timeframe. The injury report has OFs Randal Grichuk (Back) and Thomas Pham (Quadriceps) out for St. Louis as Washington has SS Yunel Escobar (Groin) day-to-day and 2B Anthony Rendon (Knee) still out.

Lynn has been a tremendous contributor to this great rotation over the past few years and has tallied double-digit wins in each of the last five seasons, totaling a record of 73-47 (.608) in that time. He has always done a great job at keeping the ball in the park with a 0.66 HR/9 mark in his career as he has the ability to strike out a ton of batters. So far on the year he has shown impeccable control (1.6 BB/9) while striking out 13 batters in 11 innings and has not allowed a HR just yet. Lynn has been great when meeting with Washington, going 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA (0.90 WHIP) and was nearly flawless (8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 8 K) in his last outing against them. He has had some issues against 2B Danny Espinosa in the past, as he is 3-for-8 with two HRs and four RBIs and is joined by the positive play of SS Ian Desmond (3-for-9, 1 double, 2 RBI).

On the other hand, OFs Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman have combined to go a meager 1-for-13 with a solo homer against him. The bullpen for St. Louis has gone 1-1 with a 1.88 ERA (1.19 WHIP) and has successfully saved 6-of-7 contests. Trevor Rosenthal (1.59 ERA, 4 saves) has given up just two hits with eight strikeouts in 5.2 frames and is a perfect 4-for-4 in save chances.

Gonzalez has seen his performance decline in each of his first three seasons since joining the Nationals and was just 10-10 last year as he still performed well with his strikeouts (9.2 K/9) and homers allowed (0.57 HR/9). His 2015 campaign hasn’t started off too great with eight runs allowed (7 ER) in his first two starts (12.1 IP) as he has already walked six batters. Gonzalez has done well in his meetings with the Cardinals, posting a 2-1 record (3-2 record) behind a 2.18 ERA (1.09 WHIP) and has given up a mere three runs on ten hits over his last two starts (14 IP).

The St. Louis batters have not done well in their time against Gonzalez, combining to go a mere 20-for-102 (.196) as a team with 25 strikeouts, but OF Jon Jay (3-for-6) and C Yadier Molina (3-for-9, 2 doubles) are a few of the players who have actually done a solid job against the lefty. On the other hand, OF Jason Heyward (6-for-25, 1 double, 4 RBIs), SS Jhonny Peralta (3-for-16, 1 double, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 4 K) and 3B Matt Carpenter (1-for-6) have really struggled. The relievers for Washington have combined to go 1-2 with a 2.27 ERA (1.12 WHIP) and are successful in just 4-of-8 save chances. Drew Storen (1.80 ERA, 4 saves) has been successful in his four save opportunities while owning a 5:2 K/BB ratio in five innings of work

[StarDust Bum]

Weekly Betting Notes

April 20, 2015


As we march into the latter portion of April with two full weeks in the books now, some teams have already begun to make their move towards cementing legitimacy, while others are hurriedly seeking answers in trying to dig out of slumps they might currently be mired in. Either way, it was another notable seven days of baseball this past week, so let’s review some of it, and take a look at the week ahead.

-- Mega prospect Kris Bryant is now up for the Cubs after debuting on Friday, and despite an 0-for-4, three-strikeout performance in his much-anticipated first game, the 23-year-old third baseman bounced back over the weekend by going 3-for-6 with three walks one RBI. Some people were worried that Chicago might be a little erratic out of the gate, due to the on-going controversy of leaving Bryant in the minor leagues to begin the season despite the fact that he was the best hitter in spring training, but instead, the Cubs managed to play well, and now have their future face of the franchise up to help continue their surge. They’ve been getting a balanced effort on both sides of the ball, led by Jorge Soler on offense and Jake Arrieta pacing the pitching staff. Interestingly, Jon Lester has been off thus far, so when he inevitably gets going, that can only provide a considerable boost for Chicago. I detailed them as one of my sure-to-improve teams of 2015, and they certainly look like they’ll be contending all-year long. With Bryant now in the picture, a hot run could be on the horizon, and have an interesting division showdown this week coming up against the Pirates.

-- Another week, another impressive showing by the AL Central-resident Tigers and Royals, who continue to engage in one of the more emerging rivalries in sports right now. Detroit is 10-2 after taking another series, this time from the White Sox, while Kansas City is coming off an impressive series victory over the Athletics to move to 9-3. With those records, both teams own the top two marks in the American League entering the third week. And it’s all the more impressive when you consider how a couple of other clubs in the division, the White Sox and Indians, were expected to be solid and contend this year, but are currently stuck under .500, and even below the Twins. The Tigers and Royals are also each 7-5 towards the over in the early going.

-- The Giants lost another series over the weekend -- this time at home to the team with the worst record in baseball last year, Arizona -- and the defending World Series champions now find themselves in last place in the NL West with a 4-10 record. It shouldn’t be that surprising, as anyone who religiously follows baseball knows that despite winning the title last year, the Giants weren’t the best team, and combined with the injuries they’ve been dealing with and the offseason departure of Pablo Sandoval, a regression was more so expected than anything else. The fact that they’ve spiraled down so quickly, though, is definitely intriguing. For bettors debating whether or not to tail San Francisco, with hope they can suddenly get back on track since they’re the champs, that probably wouldn’t be so wise, as this looks like something that can take some time before the Giants are able to right the ship. Their offense and pitching have been inconsistent, and until there’s some normalcy there, it’s probably best to avoid taking them unless you find the right spot.

-- With a three-game sweep of Tampa Bay, the Yankees are suddenly looking hot, having now soared back to the .500 mark. They’re a team definitely worth monitoring from a betting standpoint, as we’ve seen them propel on long runs before. At the very least, they should definitely be on everyone’s radar as far as over/unders go, as their three-game series with the Rays provided three more overs, bringing their record to an MLB-best 10-2 in over betting. With so much ammo in their lineup, featuring numerous guys capable of doing considerable damage in any given at-bat, maybe this isn’t such a surprise, especially with Alex Rodriguez looking a bit like his old self. They should continue to make some noise in the coming weeks, although it’s hard to see their stud starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda continue to contribute towards overs. Tanaka is coming off his finest outing in awhile on Saturday, while Pineda always has the potential to dominate any given lineup when he toes the rubber.

-- The Nationals impressively responded to their first-week struggles pretty quickly, and coming off a series in which they took three of four from Philadelphia over the weekend, it appears they’re back in form. However, they’re really going to have to work hard if they want to live up to their -500 NL East-winning odds, considering they’re still looking up at the ascending Mets and Braves. I said it a hundred times that New York was for real this season so their incredible start doesn’t surprise me, but Atlanta being 8-4 when they’re supposed to be in a “lost” year certainly does. As a result, we could have ourselves a very compelling three-way race for division supremacy that plays out very closely the rest of the year. Meanwhile, the Marlins have some issues that need to be corrected right away or they’ll be in danger of digging themselves too deep a hole, given how their division residents above them are performing. Their offense just hasn’t gotten going yet, and their rotation has been too inconsistent. They could be a team to fade, just as I suggested for their series loss to the Mets this past weekend.

Upcoming Series to Watch

New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers

As already mentioned, the Yankees are suddenly hot after an impressive sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend, and now they’ll really be tested against a team that actually hasn’t even cooled off yet, that of course being the 10-2 Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have been doing it on both sides of the ball, as evident in the fact that their +33 run differential is the best in baseball. Remarkably, they’re tied for the league-lead in runs scored (68), and if not for the Cardinals, their 35 runs given up would be the lowest of any team.

It will be an interesting measuring stick for both squads -- one seeking to see if their current win streak is legit enough to push them past the class of the American League; the other seeking to see if their MLB-best ways can continue through at least one more series against a quality team. The series commences tonight as the ESPN Monday Night Baseball game, with Alfredo Simon squaring off against C.C. Sabathia. While this might look like an advantage in favor of Simon at first glance, Sabathia is coming off a solid seven-inning start in Baltimore last week, and has actually looked good this year after missing most of 2014. Through two starts, he’s compiled an astounding 15/1 K/BB ratio in 12.2 innings, which could be a strong sign of things to come.

Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

This isn’t just because I’m a Rangers fan but the AL West is my favorite division in all of baseball right now. Everybody is bunched together within 1.5 games of the division lead, and no team is currently over .500 after the season’s opening two weeks. On top of that, it’s the unlikely Astros who find themselves in first place under new manager A.J. Hinch. When will somebody begin to break from the pack?

A run for the division crown could begin to formulate right here, as two of the teams expected to duke it out for AL West, the Angels and Athletics, are set to meet for the first time this year, in a four-game series. Ironically, despite having one of the best home records a year ago, Anaheim enters this one being 0-3 at Angel Stadium, which was the result of a three-game sweep at the hands of the Royals. The A’s, meanwhile, have the league’s second best run differential at +24, and have looked good early on despite being 6-7. Only one of those teams will ascend over .500 when this set is over, making it as crucial as an April series could be. Rookie Kendall Graveman takes the ball for Oakland in game one against sophomore Matt Shoemaker.

Team to Watch

I’ve already wrote a lot about the Mets this year, dubbing them my main breakout team of 2015 coming into the campaign (And assuring you that Over 82½ Wins was the best Win Total on the board), and detailed them further in my “Fearless Prediction” from my Weekend Primer article this past week, stressing they would continue their dominant ways with a series win over the Marlins. They ended up sweeping that four-game set at Citi Field to extend their current win streak to eight, and now enter the third week of the season with the best record in the National League.

Simply put, everything is clicking for New York right now and everyone should be taking notice. This is no fluke, nor any sort of aberration. I actually had the Mets making the playoffs this season for the first time since 2006, and based on their marvelous start, it’s looking very promising that a berth in the postseason will indeed occur. It was already a given that their starting pitching would be outstanding, and that’s been exactly the case, as Matt Harvey and reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom have led the way. deGrom, actually, has one of the best ERAs in baseball at 0.93, and Bartolo Colon and Jon Niese have also been very good. In addition, the bullpen’s been holding their end, too, even with closer Jenrry Mejia out via suspension.

The key for the Mets’ early success, though, might be related to their offense. Even with David Wright landing on the disabled list, the Mets are proving that their lineup is legit for the first time in years, getting consistent production from their bats and timely hitting in the process. Lucas Duda and Michael Cuddyer continue to solidify themselves as formidable middle-of-the-order sluggers, both combining for 15 RBI, while Travis d’Arnaud has been living up to my expectations of being one of the better offensive catchers in the league. Surprisingly, they’ve also received some notable contributions from Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada at shortstop, which was considered the Mets’ biggest weakness entering ’15.

Another interesting note concerning the organization from Flushing is that despite being one of top teams for unders throughout the past handful of years, the Mets have suddenly become one of the best over clubs, currently sitting at 8-4 for over bets on the year, including a shocking 3-0 when Harvey toes the rubber. Due to their strong and steady starting pitching, I do not expect this trend to continue at such a high clip. But as far as tailing the Mets through moneyline and runline bets, that’s probably a pretty good idea at this point in time, although Vegas will surely begin to start listing them as heavier favorites.

Fearless Prediction

-- The Rockies, having experienced a soaring start, were humbled in Los Angeles this weekend after getting swept by the Dodgers, and although they’re returning home where they’re considerably better, I think they’ll drop their upcoming series to the Padres. As I’ve said all along, the NL West race is going to come down to a very closely-contested battle between the Padres and Dodgers, and with LA riding a seven-game winning streak into first, I think San Diego will continue to win on their own accord as well, thus keeping up with their division rivals. The Padres already have nearly as many homers this year (12) as they did through the entire first two months of last season (15), which is obviously no coincidence. Their offense is much, much improved from years’ past, and they’ll continue to swing the lumber effectively, especially being at Coors Field. Don’t be afraid to take them for the series, especially since you’ll probably be getting plus odds.

[StarDust Bum]

Wild Wild West

April 20, 2015


NBA Playoffs: The Best of the West

Start your engines! The NBA playoffs have started, time for endless full court action every night as the league crowns another champion. Let's take a look at the best of the West, the conference that has won 11 of the last 16 NBA titles.

Warriors: The team no one wants to play! Golden State’s front office took some heat the last few years for trading for Andruw Bogut (“we needed some height”) and for jettisoning a winning coach a year ago. Well hats off, because this team has been a juggernaut under first-year coach Steve Kerr, tops in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, tops in scoring and assists.

Klay Thompson (21.5 ppg) and Stephen Curry (23 ppg) provide the offense from outside, but a slew of talent role players give Golden State incredible depth and flexibility. Bogut, David Lee and Draymond Green provide frontcourt muscle, while Andre Iguodala and Leandro Barbosa excel off the bench.

Spurs: The defending champs paced themselves this season, battling injuries in the first half of the season, but they’ve been healthy and on a roll at the right time. That’s similar to what happened a year ago, too, with a 19-game win streak that wrapped up everything in the West. The Spurs play great defense under Gregg Popovich, plus use an awesome array of depth to blitz opponents, ranking 11th in the NBA in scoring, 5th in assists and Top 10 in points allowed.

San Antonio still has the Big Three of 38-year old Tim Duncan (14 ppg, 7 rpg), 37-year old Manu Ginobili (11 ppg) and 32-year old Tony Parker (14.8 ppg). Popovich has done a great job in limiting the minutes of the Big 3. The Spurs have won 50 or more games in an astonishing 16 straight seasons, breaking the longest streak in league history behind the Lakers, who won 50 12 times in a row from 1979 to 1991.

The Spurs rely heavily on their bench, which leads the league in scoring for the fifth straight season, with role players Danny Green, Boris Diaw, 7-foot Matt Bonner, 6-11 Tiago Splitter, plus Kawhi Leonard (16 ppg, 7.4 rpg) now a starting offensive and defensive star.

Coach Gregg Popovich and Duncan have 5 NBA title rings and they know defense is essential in the postseason. After ranking 17th in points allowed and 21st in field goal shooting percentage defense, the Spurs have improved to 9th, 8th and 13th in field goal defense the last three seasons.

Grizzlies: Memphis is a young team few want to face, with a big frontcourt and a suffocating defense, second in the NBA in points allowed and Top 11 in field goal shooting defense. There's no denying the talent and depth on this team, led by 32-year old 6-9 Zach Randolph (16.6 ppg, 11 rpg), 7-foot-1 29-year old Marc Gasol (17.8 ppg, 9 rpg), guard Mike Conley (16 ppg) and newcomer 6-9 Jeff Green. The Grizzlies are 48-23-2 ATS at home against a team with a winning road record, plus 19-7-1 under the total at home.

Rockets: Houston has given Dwight Howard the season off (for the most part) but hasn’t missed a beat, Top 10 in the NBA in scoring and assists behind 25-year old James Harden (27 ppg, 7 apg). Harden is able to get the most out of a good collection of role players in 29-year old Trevor Ariza (12 ppg), Patrick Beverley and Josh Smith, the latter coming off the bench as sixth-man. Despite a dazzling offense, Houston has really upgraded the defense this season, Top 10 in field goal shooting defense, plus No. 1 at defending the three. Houston is 14-3 under the total against a team with a winning record.

LA Clippers: Adding guard Chris Paul (18.8 ppg) with Blake Griffin (22 ppg, 7.6 rpg) is certainly a nice one-two punch to upgrade any franchise, especially on offense. This team is second in the NBA in scoring. But the depth and talent is exceptional for second-year Coach Doc Rivers, who has really helped to upgrade the defense, 14th in points scored, 5th in field goal defense, tops against the three-pointer.

Jamal Crawford, J.J. Redick and Matt Barnes are fine role players and Rivers has got DeAndre Jordan to focus on defense with 14.8 boards and 2.2 blocks per game. They will be fun to watch in the playoffs but here’s one warning: The Clippers rank 28th in free throw shooting. Will that hurt in close playoff games?

Odds to win the 2015 Western Conference - per Sportsbook.ag

Golden State Warriors 5/7
San Antonio Spurs 9/2
Los Angeles Clippers 5/1
Houston Rockets 8/1
Memphis Grizzlies 12/1
Dallas Mavericks 50/1
Portland Blazers 60/1
New Orleans Pelicans 150/1

[StarDust Bum]

NBA post-Game 1 series takes

April 20, 2015

All 16 NBA playoff teams are on an even playing field now. That’s not to say the Celtics are suddenly going to get a game off LeBron James’ Cavaliers, but they were never going to win that Game 1.

While you couldn’t go anywhere without hearing that Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were finally experiencing the postseason under much maligned first-time head coach David Blatt, it went virtually unnoticed that Boston’s Brad Stevens, Sixth Man of the Year runner-up Isaiah Thomas and young guys like Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger were all getting their first taste of the playoffs, too.

On the road.

That’s the game-changer, because a hostile environment fueled by fans thrilled to get free t-shirts and soak in an atmosphere that simply can’t be replicated on any other night during the season usually proves to be insurmountable. Last year was the anomaly, since five of the eight road teams won after every single one of them had lost the previous season.

This past weekend, every home team except Toronto, seven of eight, won their first-round game. Feeding off both the juice provided by sellout crowds and the familiarity of being able to get to their spots in striving to get comfortable, Game 1’s built-in advantage allowed the favorite to cover five of eight spreads.

The playoffs are what most players refer to as the “real season,” despite so many of them having little experience working when games matter most. It’s always telling to see who responds and who wilts.

Every team has their agendas early in a postseason, be it as simple as settling in and making sure everyone touches it on the first few possessions. Cleveland’s mission was far more contrived, which we’ll get into in these Game 1 observations:

No. 1 Atlanta vs. No. 8 Brooklyn

Hawks fans definitely answered the call that they would be able to supply a suitable homecourt advantage given their history of poor attendance. They’ve taken notice of this year’s team as a special one and will make it tough on road teams. Former fan favorite Joe Johnson was booed every time he touched the ball and didn’t handle it well early, contributing to Atlanta building a substantial cushion. Kyle Korver felt comfortable with the green light and took his 3-point looks fearlessly, which is also a great sign for this group. Brooklyn’s Deron Williams wasn’t sharp in Game 1 and will doom his team to a quick early exit if he doesn’t step his game up. On the heels of getting called out by Paul Pierce for shrinking from the spotlight, his poor performance was even more discouraging.

No. 2 Cleveland vs. No. 7 Boston

LeBron went out of his way to play facilitator, striving to get Irving, Love, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Timofey Mozgov off before himself. That he led the team in assists should come as no surprise, but getting 20 points when barely trying to assert himself in that phase of the game has to give those who backed a sweep great hope. Irving’s brilliance should come as no surprise, since that kid’s nickname should be “Born Ready” instead of Lance Stephenson. Love’s struggles early were glaring, especially since Boston really overwhelmed him in the paint, but he rebounded well and made a positive contribution on that end. The Cavs then had he and Irving join James at the podium in their first three-man press conference of the season, a sign that the team is trying to prop up his confidence as the key to a run to the Finals.

No. 3 Chicago vs. No. 6 Milwaukee

Derrick Rose’s Game 1 was liberating. Both he and Jimmy Butler came in with injury-related concerns and took over the game in spite of them. The Bucks are putting a lot on Khris Middleton’s plate and will need to hit 3-pointers to hang around in the series. Unless Jason Kidd can free up Michael Carter-Williams to be more of a threat driving into the paint, the Bucks don’t figure to get much around the rim, which means this might be a far shorter series than some (me) imagined.

No. 4 Toronto vs. No. 5 Washington

Pierce isn’t like most. This Game 2 will be his 150th career playoff game, so he’s heard his share of boos. Making himself Public Enemy No. 1 in Toronto last year wound up working out for the Brooklyn Nets, so it became a priority this season. Saying the Wizards didn’t have “it,” he took all the pressure off young guards John Wall and Bradley Beal, then came through with big shot after big shot to quiet naysayers. He’s made this whole series about him. It’s on Raptors All-Star guard Kyle Lowry to change that or his team will be in a major hole.

No. 1 Golden State vs. No. 8 New Orleans

The Warriors aren’t going to be challenged here. New Orleans doesn’t have guards capable of making enough perimeter shots to hang with Golden State, at least at ORACLE Arena. Not only do elite shooters know every spot on that floor, they excel in feeding off the NBA’s top homecourt advantage, one that has produced a 40-2 mark and counting thus far this season. Anthony Davis is going to win a game by himself because he’s that blessed, but it won’t be happening in Oakland and won’t happen more than once. This series goes a maximum of five games.

No. 2 Houston vs. No. 7 Dallas

The Mavericks got stuck playing catch-up and lost a game where Dirk Nowitzki shot 10-for-14, something that isn’t likely to happen again this postseason. Amar’e Stoudemire, 2-for-12 off the bench, was outplayed by Swiss rookie Clint Capela, who helped make up for Dwight Howard playing just 17 minutes due to foul trouble. Rajon Rondo shot the ball well (7-for-16), yet was a -25 when on the court. It was a disconcerting opener for Dallas, who lost by double-digits despite James Harden shooting just 4-for-11.

No. 3 L.A. Clippers vs. No. 6 San Antonio

Tiago Splitter could only give the Spurs nine minutes, which means they’re in deep trouble if that doesn’t change. Being forced to use Boris Diaw and Aron Baynes against an athletically superior frontcourt led by Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan is something the defending champs may not be able to overcome. Chris Paul was brilliant in scoring 32 points on 13-for-20 shooting, overwhelming Tony Parker. Gregg Popovich can no longer afford to play anyone but Kawhi Leonard on him. It’s not panic time in San Antonio, even if it loses Game 2, but a lineup without Splitter won’t win four games here.

No. 4 Portland vs. No. 5 Memphis

Beno Udrih isn’t going to scorer a game-high 20 points again, but his emergence only made the result more pronounced. The Grizzlies might sweep this series if the Trail Blazers can’t establish better balance on offense, as LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard combined for 56 shots, making just 18 due to the increased attention they received. Going up against an elite defensive team like Memphis, Portland head coach Terry Stotts, a gifted offensive mind, needs to get creative. It’s not helping his cause that Arron Afflalo remains out, but he’s going to need to get more out of Nicolas Batum and young guys C.J. McCollum and Allan Crabbe. The fact Tony Allen looks spry doesn’t aid the Blazer cause.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Playoff Essentials

April 21, 2015


Celtics at Cavaliers – 7:05 PM EST
Well, as great a strategist as Brad Stevens is, already one of the best in the pro game, he doesn’t have too many answers or tricks up his sleeve here. His Celtics led the Cavs 38-31 nearly 15 minutes into Game 1, having just gotten six straight points from rookie Marcus Smart before Cleveland wrestled the game back with a flurry of 3-pointers. Boston’s most effective offense was spreading the floor and allowing big reserve forward Kelly Olynyk to take advantage of mismatches on the perimeter. Center Tyler Zeller got clean looks around the rim early and made the most of it, but outside of Olynyk and Sixth Man of the Year runner-up Isaiah Thomas coming off the bench to wreak havoc, there aren’t a lot of offensive options for Stevens to call upon. Thomas scored a game-high 22 points, but since the four regular-season meetings included a Nov. 14 game that featured Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green as well as two April games where the Cavs didn't play to win, there isn't much for the Celtics to draw from beyond Game 1. Boston was +1500 to pull the upset in this series per Sportsbook.ag and is now +2500. The 113-100 Game 1 loss was the Celtics second consecutive game that went over the posted total after three straight unders, two of which came against Cleveland.

The Cavs have made a concerted effort to make sure Kevin Love is included in all “Big 3” activities to start this postseason. That included a post-game press conference including him alongside LeBron James and Kyrie Irving for the first time all year, which tells you Cleveland is using this series with Boston as the first part of a progression, looking to boost the confidence of a supporting cast expected to help James reach his fifth straight NBA Finals. LeBron did his part by concentrating on facilitating and dictating tempo, never forcing the issue and deferring to teammates in an effort to make sure they got into a rhythm. He wound up with 20 points, six rebounds and a team-high seven assists. Irving stole the show with a game-high 30 points, including five 3-pointers, declaring post-game, “we are the Big 3, we have really great players on this team, but we set the tone.” Love shot the ball poorly but grabbed a game-high 12 rebounds, while Iman Shumpert ended up playing a bench-high 32 minutes, providing impressive defense. Head coach David Blatt had a relatively stress-free playoff debut due to James’ game management and the fact Cleveland took a 20-point second-half lead and was never seriously challenged in the fourth. The Cavs were -3500 to win the series according to Sportsbook.ag and are now -10000 up 1-0. Their last three games have gone over the posted total.

Wizards at Raptors – 8:05 PM EST

While their Game 1 overtime win was well-deserved, it was also indicative of why the Wizards underachieved as much as they did this season. Head coach Randy Wittman, who got himself an extension after defeating Chicago in last year’s playoffs, was the subject of scorn and criticism throughout multiple Washington losing streaks, particularly since they often blew leads and looked powerless to stop it. The trend reared its ugly head again as Toronto erased a 15-point edge with just 8:45 to go, taking advantage of unimaginative offense sets that resulted in brutal possessions. Paul Pierce, who helped Brooklyn overcome the Raptors in last year’s first round, shot 48.5 percent and averaged 14.7 points against the Raptors during the regular season, the most he averaged against any Eastern Conference opponent except Boston. He relished in all the boos that rained down from the Air Canada Centre on Saturday, coming up with a game-high 20 points, the most he’s scored since Feb. 24. The Wizards are now 4-1 when he scores 20 or more. John Wall and Bradley Beal combined for just 26 points on 11-for-41 shooting, finishing 1-for-9 from 3-point range. Winning in spite of such a power outage from an explosive backcourt does inspire hope, especially since injury-prone PF Nene shook off the effects of an injured ankle to score 12 points and grab 13 rebounds in only 21 minutes. The Wizards opened +165 to pull the upset in this series according to Sportsbook.ag and are now -165. Four of Washington’s last six games have gone over the posted total, but Game 1’s 93-86 result went under 194 handily in spite of the five extra minutes.

The Raptors managed to get into OT despite shooting just 38 percent, including 6-for-29 from 3-point range. They were outrebounded 61-48 and were beaten in both fast-break points (52-44) and points in the paint (13-6). All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry closed the regular season by shooting 34.4 percent after returning from a seven-game absence due to back issues, so seeing him shoot 2-for-10 from the field, 0-for-4 from 3-point range, certainly wasn’t reassuring. DeMar DeRozan averaged 21.0 and 5.3 rebounds in the three wins over the Wizards during the regular season, but shot just 38.3 percent. He went 6-for-20 (30 pct) in Game 1, but did finish with team-highs in rebounds (11) and assists (6). Toronto’s bench was the main bright spot, since Amir Johnson, Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams, Patrick Patterson, and Greivis Vasquez all scored in double-figures, combining for 48 points. Head coach Dwane Casey is going to have to push the right buttons early in this one, since avoiding falling into an 0-2 hole at home qualifies this as a must-win game. The Raptors opened at -190 to win the series according to Sportsbook.ag, but are now +145 after falling behind. Toronto is 2-6 ATS in their last eight and have seen five of their last six games go under the posted total.

Mavericks at Rockets – 9:35 PM EST

Who knows if we’ll ever see Dirk Nowitzki shoot 10-for-14 in another playoff game, but, offensively, he looked like the 2011 Finals MVP in Houston during Game 1. Defensively, he looked two steps low, which the Rockets took advantage of by putting him in pick-and-rolls and taking advantage of his lack of lateral movement. He was every bit the defensive liability, which is how he ended up a -6 in spite of such efficient offensive numbers. Point guard Rajon Rondo ended up -25 despite a relatively strong offensive game, aggressively taking a team-high 16 shots, scoring 15 points on seven makes. He had just five assists in spite of one turnover, but struggled to help get stops. Monta Ellis shot 5-for-16 and was also victimized defensively. Chandler Parsons briefly left the series opener with a knee issue but returned and wound up playing 36 minutes, shooting just 5-for-15, including 0-for-4 from 3-point range. Rockets fans booed him whenever he touched the ball. Parsons (knee) and Devin Harris (toe) are both questionable for Game 2 after missing practice on Monday. Amar’e Stoudemire struggled in his first significant playoff action since 2012 with the Knicks, shooting just 2-for-12 off the bench. Tyson Chandler wound up with 11 points and 18 rebounds, grabbing eight offensive boards. The Mavericks opened at +265 at Sportsbook.ag and is now +320.The over has hit in nine of the last 10 Dallas games, including seven straight.

Houston’s 118-108 win was keyed by the fact it took 45 free-throws, making 32 and avoiding the Hack-a-Shaq treatment for its worst shooters. James Harden overcame a 4-for-11 shooting night by going 15-for-17 from the stripe, adding 11 assists in a strong performance. The Rockets won by double-digits in spite of Dwight Howard saddled with foul trouble the entire game, winding up playing just 17 minutes. He ended up with 11 points, five rebounds and five blocks, but also had five fouls that prevented him from getting in much of a rhythm. Swiss rookie Clint Capela played 16 huge minutes, finishing with eight points and six rebounds while Josh Smith added 11 points and seven boards. With Donatas Motiejunas done for the season with a back injury, surviving Howard’s foul trouble as effectively as they managed to provides a huge mental boost for Houston. Patrick Beverley (wrist) must also be replaced, so seeing Jason Terry (16 points) play as well as he did against his former teammates also provided a major lift. Starting forwards Terrence Jones and Trevor Ariza combined for 31 points, 20 rebounds and 12 assists, keeping the ball moving and providing terrific defense. Corey Brewer was a tremendous asset off the bench, scoring 15 points and connecting on 3-of-4 clutch 3-pointers. Despite their personnel losses, beating Dallas while short-handed is proof the Rockets do have enough in the cupboard to make a championship run. Sportsbook.ag had Houston at -330 to win this series when it started and now lists it at -400. The Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight, and have seen the posted total surpassed for overs in six of seven..

Total Notes

Chris David of VegasInsider.com provides us with his quick handicap on Tuesday’s totals.

For total bettors, the story of this year’s playoffs has been the ‘under’ which has started off with a 6-3-1 record and that number could be 8-2 if a couple games catch bounces. The two ‘over’ tickets were rather easy and they took place in two of three series taking place Tuesday.

Boston at Cleveland: The total on Game 1 closed at 204 and the game easily went ‘over’ as the two teams combined for 213 points. Cleveland got to the free throw line 33 times and unless the refs swallow their whistle, I doubt that number drops off significantly. The pace was slow for both teams but the aforementioned free throws, 55 combined attempts, made up for it. Unless the Celtics shoot a ridiculous percentage from the perimeter, I don’t see them busting 100 points again. Cleveland’s defense allowed 96.1 PPG at home this season, which is ranked fifth in the NBA, and that will come into play in Game 2.

Washington at Toronto: Even though Game 1 only saw a combined 179 points scored, I believe this total was adjusted too much. Saturday’s opener, which took place early in the afternoon, closed at 196. Now you’re dropping the line six points? Both teams shot below 40 percent in the opener and that’s an anomaly for this pair. Toronto averaged 103.8 PPG in the regular season while Washington posted 98.5 PPG. Another reason Game 1 lacked points was due to free throws or the lack thereof, as the teams took 29 combined attempts. I would expect another tight affair in Game 2 and believe this number eclipses the closing total.

Dallas at Houston: The Rockets ran past the Mavericks 118-108 in Game 1 and if the two teams run ‘n gun like they did in the opener, it’s hard to argue for an ‘under’ play in Game 2. Dallas took 14 more shots (99-85) but 28 less free throws (45-17), which was the difference. Houston gets to the line and it’s not because of the officials, rather James Harden. Some pundits believe Dallas coach Rick Carlisle will employ a hack-a-Howard or hack-a-Smith approach in Game 2. If that’s the case, ‘over’ bettors are getting opportunities to score with the clock stopped and not to sound redundant, but that makes the ‘under’ a tough lean.