Saturday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/25

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Saturday, October 25

Good Luck on day #298 of 2014!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

College football knowledge to ponder with Week 8 upon us.........

-- Michigan State won five of last six games with Michigan, with four of five wins by 14+ points; favorites are 5-2-1 in last eight series games.

-- Tennessee 3-10 in its last 13 games as a home underdog.

-- Last time Miss State played on road (Sept 20) they were unranked; now they're #1 in country. Curious to see how they play.

-- Oregon State is 19-7 vs spread in its last 26 games as road dogs

-- Since 2012, USC is 1-9 vs spread when giving points on the road.

-- Arizona won five of its last six games with Washington State; underdogs are 9-3 vs spread in last 12 series games.

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.......

13) Sad day to be a Rays’ fan; manager Joe Maddon has bolted St Pete. He had an opt-out clause written into his last contract in the event GM Andrew Friedman left the team, which happened earlier this month. I’m guessing Tampa Bay will hire Dave Martinez, Maddon’s bench coach, but it is a sad day to root for the Rays.

Maddon had a .517 winning percentage in nine years with the Rays; in eight years before he got there, their winning percentage was .401.

12) Baseball sold its soul to FOX and is now paying for it; my friend lives an hour north of Pittsburgh. He told me the other day that he wouldn’t have been able to watch Pirate playoff games had they advanced to the NLDS, because his cable system doesn’t carry FOX Sports1.

How in God’s name does MLB allow freakin’ playoff games to be on stations that everyone doesn’t have? Do they want people to see their (excellent) postseason product? FOX uses the playoffs to try and get cable systems to carry this new channel. It makes no sense for baseball to be in this situation, but what do I know?

11) Broncos are up 35-21 with 2:00 left Thursday and they have the ball. San Diego is out of timeouts- Denver can’t possibly lose unless they throw the game.

The PA system is playing music, the fans are celebrating and Peyton Manning is going nuts after they got a 5-yard penalty because linemen couldn’t hear with all the noise. Seriously, he called out the scoreboard operator after the game;

Manning must be a lot of fun to be around, as long as he gets to run everything. Fans pay a king’s ransom to watch the games; they’re entitled to celebrate when the team wins. Too much noise? Deal with it.

10) Steve Nash’s great basketball career is over; he’ll make $9.7M this season for doing nothing, since he is hurt and was retiring after the season anyway. Saw the Lakers twice this preseason; if they make the playoffs, it will be a small miracle- they’re not very good.

9) If what you read about the Seahawks having dissension is true, then those long plane trips they take to road games must be a lot of fun. Because of living up in the Pacific Northwest, Seahawks usually fly the most miles of any NFL team; St Louis last week, Carolina this week, for example. Heavy is the head that wears the crown.

8) Speaking of the Seahawks, still want to hear the whole story on Russell Wilson leaving NC State for Wisconsin after three years/36 starts. That just never happens in the college game; who willingly lets the star QB walk? There has to be a juicy story there somewhere.

7) All three of Indiana Hoosiers’ assistant coaches are former D-I head coaches, which is a lot more unusual than you would think. Most teams have at least one younger, up-and-coming coach; I can’t remember another team where all the assistants had been head coaches in D-I.

6) Speaking of Indiana, Hoosier alum/Orlando Magic guard Victor Oladipo broke bones in his face this week during practice this week and will be out for a while. Tough blow for the Magic, who may turn to rookie Elfrid Payton to run their offense at the start of the season.

5) Stat that I knew but to see it on paper was impressive: Michigan State has made the Sweet 16, the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, 12 of the last 17 years. That’s damn good.

4) Illinois basketball players have a good deal coming up; Nov 27-28 they play two games in Las Vegas, then four days later they have a game in Miami. Lot of pool time for them that week, though pools in Vegas might be closed by then. I’m sure they’ll find something to do.

3) You get the feeling that by the time this disciplinary hearing for Jameis Winston at Florida State takes place, the kid will be packing up his stuff to head to the NFL Combine. Lawyers are very skilled at delay tactics.

2) I’m pretty sure that last night was the last Friday night until June without meaningful basketball—that’s a good thing.

1) Was another Dumb and Dumber movie necessary? Seriously; couldn’t they have just re-shown the first one in theaters and everyone who would go pay $11 to go see it would’ve still been happy?

[Udog]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, October 25

Vargas is 1-0, 2.38 in two starts this month; they're also his only two starts in the postseason. He allowed two runs in five IP in his only start against the Giants this season.
Vogelsong is 0-3, 6.20 in his last five starts, 3-0, 2.16 in six postseason starts; he didn't pitch against the Royals this season.

Giants won World Series in 2010 and 2012; they're 9-4 this postseason, 5-3 at home.

Royals are 16-3 in last 19 games, 10-1 this postseason, with six one-run wins. They've won 12 of last 14 road games.

Vargas 17-16.......................3-33 first inning
Vogelsong 17-17.................8-34 first inning

There have been 54 World Series tied 1-1; Game 3 winner is 38-16 in those World Series.




MLB

Saturday, October 25

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Trend Report
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8:07 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Kansas City is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games


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[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel

Kansas City at San Francisco
The Giants look to bounce back from last night's 3-2 loss as they face a Royals team that is 2-5 in Jason Vargas' last 7 road starts. San Francisco is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25

Game 907-908: Kansas City at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Vargas) 11.109; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 12.583
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125); Over

[Udog]

MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, October 25

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KANSAS CITY (99 - 74) at SAN FRANCISCO (97 - 78) - 8:05 PM
JASON VARGAS (L) vs. RYAN VOGELSONG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 21-32 (-14.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 97-78 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-11 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 97-78 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-9 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 43-41 (+5.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VOGELSONG is 36-24 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
VOGELSONG is 39-28 (+15.0 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
VOGELSONG is 28-18 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 99-74 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 34-20 (+12.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
KANSAS CITY is 19-9 (+12.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 this season.
KANSAS CITY is 52-34 (+20.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 9-1 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in October games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 17-6 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game this season.
KANSAS CITY is 95-71 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 72-49 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 72-52 (+10.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KANSAS CITY is 10-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in playoff games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 58-41 (+12.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
KANSAS CITY is 53-36 (+16.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KANSAS CITY is 26-16 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
VARGAS is 36-24 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 60-60 (-16.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 49-52 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 5-1 (+4.2 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.9 Units)

JASON VARGAS vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
VARGAS is 0-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.15 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-0. (+3.0 units)

RYAN VOGELSONG vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
No recent starts.

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[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet

Saturday, October 25

World Series Best of 7 Series - Game 4 - KC Leads 2-1

Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants, 8:05 ET
Vargas: Kansas City 16-24 after 2 straight games where they committed no errors
Vogelsong: San Francisco 20-9 in playoff games