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  • Friday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/24

    Trends and Indexes

    Friday, October 24

    Good Luck on day #297 of 2014!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

    NFL trends to ponder with Week 8 upon us.........

    -- Texans are 4-8-1 vs spread in their last 13 road games.

    -- Saints covered 15 of their last 20 home games.

    -- Seattle is 7-3 in its last 10 games as a road favorite.

    -- Colts covered nine of their last twelve road games.

    -- Tampa Bay is 7-15-1 in its last 23 home games.

    -- Buffalo is 8-16 vs spread in its last 24 road games.

    **********


    Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: What we're looking for this weekend.......

    13) Back in May, who thought Eagles-Cardinals would be battle of 5-1 teams? Nick Foles comes back to Arizona as a much better player than he was for the Arizona Wildcats in college. This is Sunday’s best game.

    12) LSU is a home underdog for the 5th time (2-2 in first four) in 9+ years under Les Miles; Ole Miss covered its last nine visits to Baton Rouge, but most of those were as pretty substantial underdogs.

    11) Steelers scored 24 points in 2:54 Monday night against a Houston team that imploded. Indy has won five games in row and will not implode, but they’re 2-11 in last 13 games vs Pittsburgh, though this will be Luck’s first visit to Heinz Field.

    10) West Virginia knocked Baylor from ranks of unbeaten last week, but now have a long road trip to Oklahoma State, which got bamboozled at TCU. OSU’s starting QB is out for the year; they’re 4-0 at home, but against all stiffs. WVU won both its true road games by three points each.

    9) Oakland fired Dennis Allen when the Raiders got home from London; if the Falcons lose to Detroit across the pond, will Mike Smith get the Ziggy too? Atlanta has been playing terrible defense.

    8) Mississippi State is #1 in the country, which just looks strange; they’ve got a trap game in Lexington, as a double digit favorite in Lexington, against improved Kentucky. Lot more media distractions when you’re ranked #1. Bulldogs haven’t been on road in over a month, either.

    7) World Series shifts to San Francisco, where Ned Yost gets to test his magical managerial run while playing under National League rules. Yost used to manage in Milwaukee, so he’s done it before, but Billy Butler has to sit now, with no DH for three games.

    6) USC has a tricky road game at Utah, which is having a hard time picking a starting QB- Utes are back to Wilson this week. Utah’s last three games were all decided by 6 or less points. Trojans allowed 26+ points in each of their last three games.

    5) Rookie Zach Mettenberger gets his first start at QB for offensively-challenged Tennessee, with Houston in town after falling apart Monday night. Texans have to be really disappointed to be 3-4; they’re close to having a much better record.

    4) Lane Kiffin’s going to be in Knoxville this weekend, which should have the locals out in full force. Young Vols are a 17-point home dog to Alabama, which looked really good at home last week after struggling to win 14-13 at Arkansas.

    3) Ravens rallied from a 15-0 deficit to take a 16-15 at home against the Bengals in Week 1, before Cincy won it on a long pass with 5:00 left; now teams meet again in the Queen City, with Bengals on an 0-2-1 downer after their 3-0 start. Ravens are quietly 5-2; do you think they will re-sign Ray Rice if he gets reinstated?

    2) South Carolina is getting 18 points at Auburn? Have to look up the last time Spurrier got 18 points in a game, has to be a decent amount of years, but his defense is sub-par this year and that’s bad news against a Malzahn team.

    1) I think the Saints are going to break out and beat Green Bay Sunday night; nothing I’ve seen on TV this year endorses that opinion, just a feeling I have.

    Think the Jets will beat Buffalo too, but you cannot give points with a team that’s lost its last six games.
    Last edited by Udog; 10-24-2014, 08:30 AM.

  • #2
    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Friday, October 24


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    KANSAS CITY (98 - 74) at SAN FRANCISCO (97 - 77) - 8:05 PM
    JEREMY GUTHRIE (R) vs. TIM HUDSON (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 97-77 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 21-10 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 97-77 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 1019-851 (+116.8 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 66-47 (+16.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 43-40 (+6.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    HUDSON is 52-30 (+21.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
    HUDSON is 19-5 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    HUDSON is 19-5 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    HUDSON is 74-30 (+27.1 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
    KANSAS CITY is 98-74 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 33-20 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 18-9 (+10.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 51-34 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 8-1 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in October games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 12-3 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Friday this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 15-5 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 16-6 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 94-71 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 71-49 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 71-52 (+9.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 9-1 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in playoff games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 57-41 (+11.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 52-36 (+15.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 25-16 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
    GUTHRIE is 20-13 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
    GUTHRIE is 20-12 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
    GUTHRIE is 40-29 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    GUTHRIE is 19-13 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    GUTHRIE is 18-11 (+11.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

    Head-to-Head Series History
    KANSAS CITY is 4-1 (+3.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

    JEREMY GUTHRIE vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
    GUTHRIE is 0-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 6.14 and a WHIP of 1.978.
    His team's record is 2-1 (+1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-0. (+3.0 units)

    TIM HUDSON vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
    HUDSON is 3-4 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 4.12 and a WHIP of 1.360.
    His team's record is 6-5 (-3.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-6. (-2.4 units)

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    MLB

    Friday, October 24


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    Trend Report
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    8:07 PM
    KANSAS CITY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
    Kansas City is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
    Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
    San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games


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    Comment


    • #3
      MLB

      Friday, October 24


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      World Series Betting Preview: Royals at Giants
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      Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants (-127, 7)

      Tim Hudson pitches in a World Series game for the first time in his 16-year-career when the San Francisco Giants host the Kansas City Royals in Game 3 on Friday. The 39-year-old Hudson will attempt to pitch the Giants into the series lead after the teams split two games in Kansas City. “Obviously, when you go 16 years without having been able to experience something like this, you wonder if it’s going to happen,” Hudson told reporters. “I’m no different than anybody.”

      The Royals avoided a series hole by producing a 7-2 victory in Game 2 to halt San Francisco’s streak of seven consecutive World Series wins. Kansas City designated hitter Billy Butler is 3-for-6 with two RBIs over the first two games to break out of the postseason doldrums that have him looking for his first homer. Giants catcher Buster Posey also hasn’t homered and is 2-for-9 in the World Series while red-hot third baseman Pablo Sandoval (4-for-9 in the World Series) also hasn’t gone deep despite batting .346 in the postseason.

      TV:
      8:07 p.m. ET, FOX

      LINE HISTORY:
      The line has not shifted too much since opening climbing just two points from San Francisco -125 to -127. The total opened at 7 and has yet to move.

      WEATHER REPORT:
      A cloudy night is in store for Game 3, but there is little chance of precipitation. There temperature is expected to be a comfortable 64°F with a high humidity.

      PITCHING MATCHUP:
      Royals RH Jeremy Guthrie (0-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Giants RH Tim Hudson (0-0, 3.29)

      Guthrie is making his second start of the postseason, having received a no-decision against Baltimore on Oct. 14 when he gave up one run and three hits in five innings. He spent part of 2012 in the National League with the Colorado Rockies and has made two career starts at AT&T Park, going 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA in 11 1/3 innings. “He’s a tremendous clubhouse presence and he’s a guy with a lot of experience,” Royals manager Ned Yost said in a press conference.

      Hudson will be pitching for the first time since taking a no-decision against St. Louis on Oct. 14 when he allowed four runs and seven hits in 6 1/3 innings. He lost his final four regular-season starts and Giants manager Bruce Bochy said at a press conference that Hudson’s issues were tied to a nagging hip injury. “It’s hard enough to play this game when you’re healthy but when you’re pitching and your hip’s bothering you a little – he’s a warrior,” Bochy said. “He was never complaining, he was never making excuses but it was a fact.”

      TRENDS:


      *Royals are 5-1 in Guthries last 6 road starts.
      *Giants are 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
      *Over is 11-4-2 in Royals last 17 games following an off day.
      *Over is 6-0 in Giants last 6 overall.

      CONSENSUS:
      55 percent of users are backing the Giants -127 with 62 percent backing the over.


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      Comment


      • #4
        MLB

        Friday, October 24



        One of the top under umpires calling Game 3

        Jim Reynolds will be calling balls and strikes for Game 3 of the World Series, which could be a good sign for totals bettors. During the regular season, games that had Reynolds behind the plate went 9-20 over/under.

        With a 64.35 percent strike rate, Reynolds has one of the bigger strike zones among umpires.


        Royals even series, dogs for Game 3

        Kansas City was able to even up the World Series at one game apiece with a 7-2 victory over the Giants Wednesday night, but will be underdogs when the series picks up Friday in San Francisco.

        Jeremy Guthrie will get the call for the Royals, who are currently listed as +116 road underdogs. The Giants, who lost their first World Series game in eight tries, are on the board at -126. Tim Hudson will start for the Giants.


        Five things we know heading into World Series Game 3

        KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- A five-run, sixth-inning rally led the Kansas City Royals to a 7-2 victory over the Giants on Wednesday in Game 2 of the World Series, offsetting San Francisco's 7-1 win in the opener.

        Here are five things we know about the World Series as it switches to San Francisco for Game 3 on Friday:

        --5. Billy Butler has the most seniority among the Kansas City players, and he is stepping up in the clutch. The designated hitter went 2-for-3 Wednesday, driving in two runs, including the go-ahead score in the sixth. He likely will be out of the starting lineup in San Francisco because of the National League rules that do not include the designated hitter. However, manager Ned Yost said Butler could still play a key role.

        "Having a guy like Billy on the bench is extremely valuable late in the game," he said. You don't have to start the game to win the game."

        --4. The Giants' bullpen, especially the middle relief, suddenly looks vulnerable. San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy ran through five pitchers in the decisive sixth inning. Right-hander Tim Lincecum later left the game due to lower-back tightness, though Bochy said the long reliever should recover quickly.

        "I think we're great," said reliever Jeremy Affeldt, who stopped the damage by inducing a double play to end the sixth. "I think you can have situations like that (inning) that happen. Good teams can do that to a bullpen. But I think it got out of hand, and that does happen. I think our bullpen throws a lot of strikes, and we are going up against a team that's aggressive. We just didn't make good pitches.

        --3. Giants right-hander Tim Hudson is scheduled to start Game 3, and Bochy is confident he is over his late-season struggles. Hudson went 0-5 in September with an 8.72 ERA.

        "I don't know if it was fatigue as much as he was dealing with a nagging hip," Bochy said. "It's hard enough to play this game when you're healthy, but when you're pitching and your hip's bothering you...

        "He's a warrior. He was never complaining. He was never making excuses, but it was a fact."

        Hudson pitched well in a National League Division Series start against the Washington Nationals, then had a mediocre outing in an NL Championship Series start against the St. Louis Cardinals. He will be facing a Kansas City lineup that won eight consecutive games entering the World Series, then got back on track Wednesday with seven runs on 10 hits.

        --2. Kansas City's bullpen is in good shape, especially the back end. Yost didn't have to use right-handers Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland in Game 1. The trio combined for 3 2/3 innings of scoreless, one-hit relief in Game 2. Herrera threw 1 2/3 innings Wednesday, with a long gap between the sixth and seventh while the Royals were breaking the game open. Yost then got Davis and Holland into the game for an inning each.

        "(The layoff) didn't affect them," Yost said of his dynamic trio. "It helped them. It gave them some extra days. Kel came in in the sixth inning throwing fastballs up to 101 miles an hour."

        --1. The Royals have life. Forty-two of 53 teams to take a 2-0 World Series lead won the Series. Only the 1985 Royals and the 1986 New York Mets won the World Series after losing the first two games at home. However, a 1-1 tie means it is anybody's Series to win. The Royals, who finished five games better on the road (47-34) than at home (42-39), are feeling good going to San Francisco.

        "I felt like (Game 2) was definitely a must-win for us," Butler said. "Granted, going down 0-2, we see what happened with us in the Baltimore series. The home team carries a lot of momentum back to their home park. We stepped up big there as a team, and that gave us some confidence in that clubhouse."

        Comment


        • #5
          MLB
          Dunkel


          Kansas City at San Francisco
          The Series shifts to San Francisco for tonight's Game 3 as the Giants come into the contest with a 10-3 record in Tim Hudson's last 13 starts as a home favorite. San Francisco is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

          FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24

          Game 905-906: Kansas City at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)

          Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 11.442; San Francisco (Hudson) 12.886
          Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
          Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 7
          Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Under




          MLB
          Armadillo's Write-Up

          Friday, October 24


          Guthrie is 3-0, 1.42 in his last four starts, 0-0, 1.80 in his one postseason start; he didn't pitch against the Giants this season.
          Hudson is 0-4, 6.53 in his last six starts, 1-3, 3.42 in 11 postseason starts, 0-1, 4.50 against the Royals this season.

          Giants won World Series in 2010 and 2012; they're 9-3 this postseason, 5-2 at home.

          Royals are 15-3 in last 18 games, 9-1 this postseason, with five one-run wins. They've won 10 of last 12 road games.

          Guthrie 20-13............... .12-33 first inning
          Hudson 20-14.................8-34 first inning

          There have been 54 World Series tied 1-1; Game 3 winner is 38-16 in those World Series.

          Comment


          • #6
            Hey Udog--Media coverage of these games has been horrible. I would rather listen to somebody scratching their nails on a chalkboard than listen to Joe Buck--guy just drives me nuts....and what relevance do those infernal 'dugout interviews' have? Do they really think somebody is going to divulge some secret bit of information??? Just plain stupid.... No wonder my 12 yr old grandson doesn't like baseball.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by RS170 View Post
              Hey Udog--Media coverage of these games has been horrible. I would rather listen to somebody scratching their nails on a chalkboard than listen to Joe Buck--guy just drives me nuts....and what relevance do those infernal 'dugout interviews' have? Do they really think somebody is going to divulge some secret bit of information??? Just plain stupid.... No wonder my 12 yr old grandson doesn't like baseball.
              Yeah, Joe is nowhere near the baseball broadcaster his dad was. I think the only reason he's working is that he's Jack's son.

              Baseball sure needs to do something to generate some interest from the kids. I was reading, a couple of weeks ago, that interest in all sports is really on the rapid decline among kids.

              Comment


              • #8
                MLB

                Friday, October 24



                Hudson has been playing better at night

                Tim Hudson takes to the mound for a World Series start for the first time in his long career and it bodes well for him considering he gets the day to get his head straight. The elder statesman of the Giants rotation, Hudson's numbers are better across the board when he pitches at night compared to day starts.

                The rightie has a 3.07 ERA and a .283 OBP during the night versus a 4.16 ERA and .325 OBP during the day. That has been good for total plays as well because Hudson is 6-12 over/under at night compared to 10-3 before the sun sets.


                Guthrie going from inning eater to reliable starter

                Jeremy Guthrie was once a highly touted prospect once, but those days are behind him. Despite not panning out as the ace once projected, he has been stellar for the Kansas City Royals to close out the season.

                Over the righties past four starts he has allowed only two runs, pitched at least five complete innings each time and have steered the Royals to victories.

                Comment


                • #9
                  MLB
                  Short Sheet

                  Friday, October 24


                  World Series Best of 7 Series - Game 3 - Tied 1-1

                  Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants ET

                  Guthrie: Kansas City 9-1 SU in playoff games
                  Hudson: San Francisco 1-8 SU after 5 or more consecutive overs

                  Comment

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