PREAKNESS JUNKIES-need track speed bias for capping

[WayneChung]

does the dirt track still play to front speed and does the turf still play to closers,i know it changes daily and that they will roll the track bigtime for the preakness,anybody that gets to watch thursday card or that plays this track daily-could sure use some input-i think the undercards are the ticket to make a score!! ps-if i get off work tomorrow,the black-eyed susan card looks pretty juicy,some nice races tomorrow!! ps-BILLMILL ARE YOU OUT THERE,YOU GOING TO CAP BELMONT THIS WEEKEND-LATER MY MAN!!

[WayneChung]

hey pappa smooth-miss you around here pal,getting some pretty good horse input lately-HOPE YOU AND LITTLE SMOOTHIE DOING WELL!!

[WayneChung]

THANKS for all the input from you pimlico freaks-surely somebody here plays that track-please HELP !!

[WayneChung]

AND,AND,AND,AND,AND,AND,AND,AND,AND-lol ps-sorry guys too many martinis-this thread is loaded with info-LOL!! :christmas

[meaiken]

Every track is different. I believe Pimlico plays to speed horses.

[BillMill71]

Sorry chung, stuck in florida on business, first time got to get on. May have some this weekend

[WayneChung]

Every track is different. I believe Pimlico plays to speed horses.

hey pal-i read in the drf last night where pimlico not favoring the front speed like it use too-i'm off today,if i can get loose from the family-will watch some of the races to try and get a feel for the track!!

[WayneChung]

Sorry chung, stuck in florida on business, first time got to get on. May have some this weekend

thanks bill,having a rough week on my sports betting,just trying to stay calm and not turn a bad week into a terrible week-later buddy..

[Spark]

See if this helps Chunger ...


Preakness weekend horse racing analysis
****** analysis of preliminary races
Black Eyed Susan
#1) Crystal Current - Form appears to be going the wrong way. 1st foray into graded company was rough. Beaten 10 lengths after a bad start in the Grade-II, "Nassau". Only 2 weeks rest as that race was 5/6 and may have taken alot out out of her. Breeding (A.P. Indy - Seattle Slew ---- Dream Supreme) say distance shouldn't be a problem but I have to look elsewhere for the top pick

#2) Regal Engagement - Very interesting girl. Thought she was sitting on a big race heading into the G-II "Comely" and was right. Might have made her move a little early that day. Dominguez back aboard (2-2) and she drops 4 lbs. One to use at a price.

#3) Gasia - How good is she? 6-7 lifetime in the triple - 4 of those are wins. Class is the question. Will try to get to the leaders late but not sure she can hang with these girls. Can't use everybody --- toss.

#4) Baghdaria - Another with class questions. Has been off since end of March and now in new barn with new jock. Jock trainer combo clicks at 26% and been working great at Churchill but as stated previous - can't use everybody - another toss.

#5) She's an eleven - West coast invader has looked great in last two winning by a combined 20 1/2 lengths. 6-6 lifetime in the triple. 5-6 in the exacta. Appears to be throwing up nothing but bullets in the morning. Now for the bad news - not only has she never raced outside California, all her races have been against state breds. She picks up 8lbs today for first attempt at the distance. Mixed signals on the girl that will most likely be the favorite - Your Call.

#6) Smart N Pretty - Comes outof the Latroien run on K-Derby day where a bad start cost her. Only attempt over a mile resulted in a clean trip and a 14 length loss - granted that was in a G-II but another I can't see any better than filling in exotics

#7) Red Cherries - Was claimed for $75,000 in April and then in her next start almost won the Kentucky Oaks! Some will point to her getting roughed up in the stretch. Think that race -only 2 weeks ago, may have taken too much out of her. Gutsy performance but remember her name as she may be a play later in the summer as she is eligible for NWx2

#8) Saratoga Drive - Willing to wager Richie Violette will never give her the same medication he gave her in the Ashland again. 33 3/4 length defeat was a disaster. On the + side --- only girl in the race to have a win at distance and been working bullets since that aforementioned debacle. My very cautious pick.

THE BETS ------
$5 WIN $10 PLACE --#8
$3 EXACTA BOX --- 2-8
$1 TRIPLE ---- 2,8/1,5,6/2,8
TOTAL WAGERED --- $27

Pimlico Special
#1) Funny Cide - He's made 3.3 million on track and lord knows how much in merchandising $. There is no doubt his best days are behind him as is evidenced by only $140,000 earned in last 2 years and is assigned only 113lbs. Only horse in the field with both a win at the distance and a win over the track. With that said - he has been beaten by a couple of these recently and will only use underneath --- if at all.

#2) West Virginia - Been racing in decent company and this field isn't exactly the strongest G-1 field I have ever seen. Has beaten both Cide + Seek. The extra 1/16 of a mile doesn't soundlike much but could hurt. Last 3 times Arroyo was aboard resulted in a win and two seconds (both by neck). 5 yr old will put in an honest effort but will only use underneath.

#3) Wanderin Boy - Zito trainee will be looking for the lead. Mixed signals as won last by 5 1/4 under hand ride. Problem is both that race and the one before were at the notorious speed biased Keenland race track. The only thing that will keep him off the top of my ticket is the potential of a short price - A must use in picks and exotics.

#4) Invasor - I HAVE NO IDEA!!! Appears to be running in minor stakes - first U.S. start appears to be in a tough spot. McLaughlin does wonders with these Shadwell Stable imports but I can't endorse - Not enough info - If he beats me - so be it.

#5) We Can Seek - Took a little bit to get acclamated to U.S. but has come around nicely. I am always looking for a price and may have found it here. Beaten 1 1/4 by "Bandini" two back - followed that up with a nice G-III win at 1 1/4mile. Think Bejarano will sit with this one and get his nose up on the wire at a nice price.
#6) Harlington - Pletcher has been very careful spotting this 4 yr old son of Unbridled. It's worked as 5-6 lifetime. Gomez takes over for an injured J.R. -- O.K. as Pletcher/Gomez click at a 32% rate. Melnyk owned horse might be on a collision course with the Saratoga and the "Whitney" but price will have me using underneath.
THE BETS -----
$5 WIN----$10 PLACE #5
$4 EXACTA BOX 5 , 6
$1 TRIPLE 5,6 / ALL / 5,6
TOTAL WAGERED --- $31

***** Preakness analysis
Looks like we enter the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown on a win streak. Had the winner in the Derby, although, due to my poor typing, it was buried in the text and not highlighted. Barbaro looked like a monster, and after watching the replay, I liked the way he was digging and reaching through the lane. I think he had some left in the tank.

Sweetnorthersaint had some trouble and will look to make amends. I think Brother Derek was compromised by the large field, not a great trip and losing a shoe. With all that, he ran a good race to get up for fourth.

The Preakness:
I see this as a two horse race. There will be some strategy as conventional wisdom says that this should be Barbaro's toughest leg. His pedigree screams for distance. He must stay close to Brother Derek and not let him get away. Historically speed favoring track will test his grit.

Barbaro: Ran huge in the Derby. Looked like a monster down the lane. Was obviously a fresh horse. He will face a much faster turn around this time and that is a real unknown. I think he had some left and I think he has all the makings of a monster.

The favorite. Brother Derek is the one to fear here. I think he got a taste of the big-time two weeks ago, and I think the smaller field will be more to his liking. He will give a better accounting of himself this weekend and I expect him to get involved right from the start.
The Bets:
No value in win bets.
$60 Exacta Barbaro/Brother Derek
$40 Exacta Brother Derek/Barbaro
Total Bets: $100.00
Good Luck. See you in three weeks.

****** Preakness analysis
The Preakness should be an enjoyable race to watch but not much for betting. Being a fan of the game, I would love to see a Triple Crown winner and Barabaro is set-up perfectly for it. If he can pull off the Preakness, I think it is a done deal.

They say that the Belmont is the "Test of Champions" but I believe for Barbaro, Preakness will be his true test. He is facing the top two three year olds, Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint and neither will experience the ridiculously bad trips they had in the Derby.

Like Now will keep an honest pace but does not have the talent to steal the race. I don't believe any of the other contenders will really factor much - outside chance on Hemingway's Key on your bottom half of exotics.

Sweetnorthernsaint was my Derby horse and did exactly what I thought Barbaro would do - get lost in the crowd around the first turn and had to expend a ton of energy to get up close and die in the stretch. He should run much better but is just a notch below the favorites in my opinion.

Now, I am torn: If you like Barbaro, the case for him is he should be fresh and ready to go since he has only run three times since Feb. 4. The negative is that at least one of his main rivals will get a good trip and push him in the stretch - how will he respond?

If you like Brother Derek, the case for him is he is arguably the best 3-year old with tactical speed - ideal for the tight turns at Pimlico. The smaller field vitrually guarantees a good trip. The negative is Barbaro was AWESOME in Derby - and probably had gas in the tank after finishing with a hand ride from Prado.

My pick is Brother Derek. If he had not got stuck in the 18th hole and was bounced all over the place, it sure would have been an exciting stetch run in the Derby. He may not have won, but Barbaro would have had all he could handle. Derek gets his revenge.

Bets:
$50 Win - Brother Derek - ODDS OF 3-1 OR BETTER only
$2 Trifectas: Brother Derek -Barbaro on top of Hemingway's Key/Like Now/Sweetnorthernsaint = $6
$2 Trifectas: Barbaro - Brother Derek - on top of Hemingway's Key/Like Now/Sweetnorthernsaint = $6
$2 exactas: Brother Derek/Barbaro, Barbaro/Brother Derek