Preakness Future Wager

[griswold]

Don't get me wrong. I think Barbaro is a great horse. I picked him right here on BC to win the Derby. He is a real threat to win the Triple Crown. But he might be vulnerable in the Preakness as he is not accustomed to running on short rest and is coming off his best career race (bounce?). He is the likeliest winner Saturday but I think there is a solid value play right now that is likely fatter odds than you'll get on Saturday. Play:
Sweetnorthernsaint (+680 is what I got at millenium; other books are similar)

His trainer has come right out and said the Preakness is more important to him (Maryland-based trainer) than the Derby. He didn't look good before the Derby at Churchill Downs and may not have taken to the track. His race in the Illinois Derby produced a monster Beyer. He's being overlooked as most are obsessed with Barbaro and all the wise guys are talking up Brother Derek. I think he'll be about 9-2 or 5-1 on Saturday so the +680 is a good bargain.

I'll post my predicted running order Friday.

[orientalhawn]

griswold good luck on saturday!!

[shorty3830]

me too

assuming we can get 5-1 or higher, i would be really happy

i think sweetnorthernsaint has a great chance to beat barbaro who, although is a deserving favorite, benefitted from bad trips from the other 3 good horses (sns, lawyer ron, brother derek)

b

[WayneChung]

hey shorty-gris is saying you can beat 5 to 1 right now if you bet it off shore on a future!!

[WayneChung]

hey gris // Barb,Sweet,and Derek all like to run near the front-is there a stone-closer in the field in case these 3 go out and hook each other //also is the pimlico track still playing to front speed and is the turf still playing to closers-need a good answer on this from someone who plays this track on a regular basis // would love to hear how both tracks are playing thurs and frid. before i do my capping fri. night-thanks guys!!

[the lumberjack]

i have bodog. they have 4-1. that was the morning line. i took it for $100. i will be checking back for the rest of your selections to fill in my exotics. i do not think the tri and super will be high but still good enough. thanks and good luck!!

[griswold]

hey gris // Barb,Sweet,and Derek all like to run near the front-is there a stone-closer in the field in case these 3 go out and hook each other //also is the pimlico track still playing to front speed and is the turf still playing to closers-need a good answer on this from someone who plays this track on a regular basis // would love to hear how both tracks are playing thurs and frid. before i do my capping fri. night-thanks guys!!

WC,

The only closer with a shot is Greeley's Legacy, who I have as the fifth best horse in the race but could clunk up as high as second.

Beware of taking too much stock into how the track plays Thur and Fri. Many times they'll work it over the day before a big race. I would give much more weight to how it plays on race day in the earlier races on the card. As of now, I see this strictly as a two horse race between Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint. Let's try to find something juicier on the undercard.

[travelindj]

I'll not dismissing Bro Derek. He has plenty of class, was undefeated going to the Derby where he threw a shoe and got caught very wide. I'll toss SNS and try to make some $$$ using Barb abd Bro in some pick 3's and 4's. I'm watching Like Now as well as I think at long odds he has a chance with Gomez and being on the rail...