Some Derby Thoughts

[BillMill71]

Well after yesterday's Post Position assignment, I am starting to look at this more deeply and I must say, throught Post Positions would have helped me widdle down my thought process, but not as much as I thought. So throwing some things out there hoping as a board we can get some feedback.

I reserve judgement to change my mind, but initial thoughts.

Throw Outs: Well thought I would have had more, but not looking at the below to hit the top three. Automatic throw outs.

Flashy Bull
Storm Treasure
Deputy Glitters
Bluegrass Cat
Seaside Retreat
Jazil
Sharp Humor
Private Vow

Post Positions: 20 & 19 to me were almost automatic tosses, but with those two horses in there it was easy. Was looking at tossing 1/2/3 (against historical trends), but with 1/2 being closers may not affect them much. History tells us the 5/10/4/8/14/15 are good posts, but even with the extra room between main and aux gates still threw out the 14/15.

Weather Permitting: Think if this is run over a wet track, some closers may have a problem.

Pace: Not sure I am buying into the burning pace expected. But if there is, I may have one bet around speed getting away, then another on stalkers and closers.

Experts Picks: Liked Point Determined and Sweetnorthensaint until every expert started picking these two.

So all that being said, I like Steppenwolfer, Point Determined, Bob and John, Barbaro, AP Warrior, Showing Up Sweetnorthersaint, Cause to Believe, and Brother Derek the most, RIGHT NOW. Still have some breeding information to take a look at

[peave]

On same page Bill. Planning on boxing Brother Derek, AP Warrior, Point Determined and Barbaro. Then Keying Brother derek over some longer shots. GL

[meaiken]

Sorry Bill, I tend to disagree with you on a few things.

First off Jazil is not a throw out. He only lost to Bob and John by less than a length. He was 18 lengths back at 2nd call. And that was in the slop. I wouls love for it to rain and I would bet the ranch ATB on him (Only 10 % chance of rain expected). I think he could get a similar trip Gaicamo did last year. Post Position means nothing for him.

There is gonna be a burned pace similar to last year. Last year a rabbit was used. This year a TRUE contender will be in the lead. Sinister Minister will be the 1one out of the Gate and will control the pace. Lawyor Ron will be up there and so will Barbaro, Sharp Humor, SweetNorthernSaint, and Brother Derek. I think Sinister Minister has the Speed and Stamina to go wire to wire like War Emblem did. But, if he doesn't I think the 2 deep closers (Jazil and Cause to Believe) a chance to get the win.

My big trifecta ticket (one I am splitting with a friend) is gonna have 6 horses on top. And Brother Derek in the 3rd spot (but not keyed)

I have been on the Pirvate Vow bandwagon for so long I hate to jump ship now. He was one of the top 2 year olds and I can't jump off yet.

My preliminary Exatca Box is (7 horses)
Jazil, Steppenwolfer, Sinister Minister, Bob and John, Sweetnorthansaint, Private Vow, and (Keyed Entry or Cause to Believe)

Playing $20 Across the Board on #1 Jazil. I figure he should pay $26 to place and $20 to show providing he doesn't win and I'll make over $200 on the bet.

[travelindj]

Just my opinion but I can't discount Todd Pletcher horses so easily...especially Keyed Entry....PVal is the perfect jock for this horse and I expect to hear his name called coming into the stretch and he'll have every chance to steal this one...I'm tossing Bro Derek as he's had nothing but clean trips so far and this will be a war...plus at 3-1 or so it's not a value play...I like Bafferts other two (AP Warrior and Point Determined) alot though...but if I see one monster horse in here it's Barabro...awesome horse that has a huge stride and had a great workout on this track...ok, I'm starting to babble now...lol...

[BillMill71]

Thanks for the feedback Meaikin.

I agree, Post Position won't affect Jazil. What I do believe will affect him though is his Jockey. I just see him as a cut below other closers, and although he did finish 2nd strongly to Bob and John, the whole field walked home in that race. Just feel closers like Steppenwolfer and others are a cut above.

Agree it will be a hot pace, but feel some of the speed horses like you have a chance versus last years "rabbit", if certain ones can get the distance they may go wire to wire, there are some quality stalkers that may keep with these speed types.

We seem to be close with the exception of Jazil and Private Vow, but we all have to drop out some right? GOOD LUCK. I will tell you one thing, I see this as a tough race to cap and will actually not be putting too much money on it, as I have my future bets in already and may just go with a 6 horse box Exacta and Tri.

[meaiken]

Jockey- That's the reason why I can't get HOT on Layor Ron.

I am going for a HUGE pay day here. My buddy and I are doing a MONSTER Trifecta ticket I will post when we finalize it.

I believe AP Warrior can get i there in the exotics.

Keyed Entry can surprise.

[BillMill71]

Travelin -

Agreed on Keyed Entry, don't see him winning, but may get a piece of 2nd or 3rd. Also agree on Bro Derek, don't think he wins but may get in for a piece. Will be playing Point Determined, AP Warrior and Barbaro on top definitely, just trying to figure out who if anyone else.

May go PD, APW, Barbaro w/ PD, APW, Barbaro, Steppenwolfer, Bob and John, Showing Up, Sweetnorthersaint, Cause to Believe, Keyed Entry, Sinister Minister W/ ALL

[travelindj]

I had a decent today scoring a few races but not the one that counted...47-1? I can't believe I didn't put at least something on that horse cause I loved Lemon Drop Kid...after Sis City getting bet last year in this race and now Balance...I'll never beat the favorite again on the Oaks!

[meaiken]

I had a decent today scoring a few races but not the one that counted...47-1? I can't believe I didn't put at least something on that horse cause I loved Lemon Drop Kid...after Sis City getting bet last year in this race and now Balance...I'll never beat the favorite again on the Oaks!

I agree, I usually play all of Lemon Drop Kid's foals (uaully doesn't do well though)