Full Aqueduct Card 2/19

[BillMill71]

Well a beating yesterday, and with poor money management on my part it was real bad. One nice hit and a couple of small exactas. Well lets give it a shot today. WPS.

Race 1 #3 Unbridled Sunshine
Race 2 #2 Quiet Retaliation
Race 3 #4 High Blitz
Race 4 #2 All Bets Down
Race 5 #5 Two Toed Sloth
Race 6 #3 Els
Race 7 #1 Show Ready
Race 8 #1 Introspect
Race 9 #2 My Niece Cayla

Other horses for exotics:

Race 1 1/6
Race 2 6/4
Race 3 1/6/5
Race 4 6/7/5
Race 5 1/3/4
Race 6 2/8/7
Race 7 3/8/7
Race 8 3/2
Race 9 8/10/4/7

[tarolli_2000]

good luck bill

[goblin]

Thanks again for the picks.

[Meg30]

good luck bill mill!!

[longnex]

good luck Bill

[moondog22]

best of luck today Bill

[BillMill71]

Results:

Well a better day, was about to shut down for a while, but will keep it going, just with better money management.

Race 1 #3 Unbridled Sunshine WIN 3.80/2.50/2.20
Race 2 #2 Quiet Retaliation PLACE 2.20/2.10
Race 3 #4 High Blitz PLACE 3.60/2.30
Race 4 #2 All Bets Down WIN 4.80/2.60/2.20
Race 5 #5 Two Toed Sloth OUT
Race 6 #3 Els OUT
Race 7 #1 Show Ready WIN 4.40/3.00/2.80
Race 8 #1 Introspect PLACE 5.80/3.10
Race 9 #2 My Niece Cayla OUT

Exactas Races: 1 4 5 7 8 9
Tris Races: 5

[Tnbreakers]

Question

Bill,

I love following your picks, but when you list your exotic bets are you keying your original pick with those exotics? I am going to be in Vegas this week and I want to fully understand how you are playing the exotics. Thanks.

[BillMill71]

Tn Answer

Well Tn, that all depends, once again a question of money management. It also has to due with the strength of my pick and either morning line odds or odds at the time I make the bets.

For example, I loved Unbridled Sunshine in the first and Show Ready in the seventh. So with those horses I keyed the exacta. Didn't see a lot of value with low money lines so didn't want to box or even play the trifecta.

Where as I liked some speed figures I use and the odds on Introspect in the eighth, but felt the 3 and 2 may be stronger, so I boxed all three horses in the exacta.

For better or worse it all sort of depends when I am at the machine or on the phone making the bets and my bankroll (which is very small with 4 kids). So the sort of rule of thumb is I key where I have a strong fav or 2nd favs as my top pick, but if I have a high odd horse as my top pick I tend to box.

But if going to Vegas to have fun, I would just suggest taking my top pick and playing heavy place bets, if I am having a day where I am at a good hit rate you can get paid almost every race. And if I am not hitting many, on the long shots you would still get a nice price. One * to this rule which I think is the 9th race at Aq, high payout ex/tri/supers seem to be the norm, so I always box (probably not smart)

Maybe people in the forum have other ideas. Like I said only been at this like six years so have A LOT to learn. Good Luck

[orientalhawn]

thanks for the info