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This is from a local radio show, hope this analysis helps.......
PREVIEW
The Breeders Cup World Thoroughbred Championships consist of eight races covering the various divisions of horse racing. The event moves to different locations each year and this year is at Belmont Park in New York. Heavy rain the last two weeks (and possibly on race day) means the turf course may favor stamina horses and the dirt course could be wet. These races provide outstanding sport — because of the high level competition and relative closeness in ability — but also tremendous wagering opportunities. Because the fields are large and even the tenth or eleventh best horse in a race is still an outstanding animal, not only do longshots win but often run 1-2-3-4. This has created enormous payoffs on bets like exactas (pick the top two), trifectas (the top three) and superfectas (the top four). Cat Thief’s win in the Breeders Cup Classic a few years ago keyed a $692,000 superfecta — all for a measly $2 bet! But the biggest payoffs of all can come with bets like the pick three (winners of three races in a row), the pick four (four in a row) and the biggest of all in the pick six (pick the winners of the last six). Two years ago no one hit the pick six and the winnings were divided among all who picked five. But twice in the last several years, a single bettor picked all six and took down the entire pool. In both cases, the payoff topped $3 million.
For the above reasons, it doesn’t make sense to bet only on short-priced favorites. What follows is my ranking of the top five horses in each race. When in doubt about two closely matched horses, I ranked the longer shot higher. Still, the picks should be interpreted as my choices of the likelihood of winning, regardless of the odds.
Breeders' Cup Races
Click on the link for each race to go to a web page that has the details for the odds, owners, trainers, jockeys and their colors
Race
Distance
Age/Sex
Purse
Post*
Breeders' Cup Classic
1 1/4 Miles
3 Year Olds & Up
$4 Million
4:35 pm
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Distaff
1 1/8 Miles
3 Year Olds & Up Fillies & Mares
$2 Million
3:20 pm
VO5 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
1 1/16 Miles
2 Year Old Fillies
$1 Million
12:20 pm
NetJets Breeders' Cup Mile
1 Mile
3 Year Olds & Up
$1.5 Million
2:45 pm
TVG Breeders' Cup Sprint
6 Furlongs
3 Year Olds & Up
$1 Million
2:10 pm
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
1 3/8 Miles
3 Year Olds & Up - Fillies & Mares
$1 Million
1:35 pm
Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile
1 1/16 Miles
2 Year Old Colts & Geldings
$1.5 Million
12:55 pm
John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf
1 1/2 Miles
3 Year Olds & Up
$2 Million
3:55 pm
* Central Daylight Time
JUVENILE FILLIES
(This is the third race on the Belmont Park program but the first of the Breeders Cup Races. The Breeders Cup Races are races 3-10.)
Horse Morning Line Odds
1. #5 KNIGHTS TEMPLAR 12-1
2. #4 DIAMOND OMI 12-1
3. #1 FOLKLORE 8-1
4. #7 SENSATION 8-1
5. #2 ORIGINAL SPIN 6-1
ANALYSIS: This is the race for two year old fillies. My choice, KNIGHTS TEMPLAR, just romped in a big stakes in Canada where she earned a competitive speed figure. She will be overlooked in the wagering as bettors focus on horses that won higher profile races in America. DIAMOND OMI lacks speed figures of the best in here but is trained by future Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. She's an improving horse and Baffert is high on her. FOLKLORE won a shorter race by 14 lengths and has been given six weeks rest by trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who is always dangerous in races for young horses. SENSATION, the likely frontrunner, romped in a prep race against softer competition. ORIGINAL SPIN is making only the third start of her life but her last was an eye-popping win at Arlington Park in Chicago. (I know this because I was there and my eyes popped).
JUVENILE
1. #10 HENNY HUGHES 5-1
2. #9 FIRST SAMURAI 8-5
3. #12 STEVIE WONDERBOY 8-1
4. #4 SET ALIGHT 20-1
5. #11 PRIVATE VOW 8-1
ANALYSIS: This is the race for two year old colts and the field is much stronger than the so-so group of fillies in the first race. HENNY HUGHES set a shockingly torrid pace in his last, a race won by FIRST SAMURAI. Henny’s owners were so furious at the suicidal tactics they fired the trainer and replaced the jockey. Henny doesn’t have to be on the lead and a more sensible ride could produce the mild upset. Samurai is the best two year old in the country but may tire the final sixteenth of a mile. STEVIE WONDERBOY will be the star attraction of the race because he’s owned by Merv Griffin and named after Elton John, I mean, Stevie Wonder. He was given nearly two months of rest for this race---a tactic that usually doesn’t work with young horses running route races. SET ALIGHT is the best of the foreign horses in this race and tries dirt for the first time, a surface he is bred for. He could score a big upset. PRIVATE VOW is very fast and may be on the lead but is unlikely to hang on.
FILLY AND MARE TURF
1. #7 WONDER AGAIN 8-1
2. #13 OUIJA BOARD 5-2
3. #8 MEGAHERTZ 5-1
4. #11 MONA LISA 15-1
5. #12 KAREN’S CAPER 15-1
ANALYSIS: WONDER AGAIN is 0-for-4 this year but has raced well each time. She is based at Belmont Park and her trainer is famous for his work with female grass runners. I really like her chances here. OUIJA BOARD won this last year but has only raced twice this year because of injuries but her last race in England sets her up perfectly. MEGAHERTZ is the best of the American fillies who race on the turf and has a very good shot. MONA LISA is a three year old European who is rounding into top form. KAREN’S CAPER is another European who finished third in her first American race four weeks ago in Kentucky but should have won had her rider not gotten her boxed in the entire stretch.
SPRINT
1. #6 WILDCAT HEIR 10-1
2. #7 LOST IN THE FOG even
3. #1 TASTE OF PARADISE 12-1
4. #4 BATTLE WON 10-1
5. #3 SILVER TRAIN 8-1
ANALYSIS: LOST IN THE FOG will be the biggest favorite of the day and for good reason. He’s run ten races and won every one of them. Further, he’s won so easily that his rider has never really asked him for his best effort. If he loses, there’ll be huge payoffs here. I’m going with WILDCAT HEIR, a chronically injured horse who has run only eleven times despite the fact he’s a six year old. But he’s finished first or second in ten of those eleven and turned in a huge speed figure in his only race this year although that was against a very soft field. Still, he is the fastest horse in here including the big favorite. TASTE OF PARADISE won a prep race over this track and his trainer is the son of a guy who always gets his horses primed for big efforts on Breeders Cup day. BATTLE WON ran in a sprint race on the turf in Kentucky in his last race and that should set him up well for this race on the dirt. SILVER TRAIN’s notorious trainer has completely turned this horse around since he got him earlier in the year and he could win this one by stalking the frontrunners and nailing them late.
MILE
1. #7 MAJORS CAST 15-1
2. #11 LEROIDESINAMAUX 7-5
3. #10 VALIXIR 10-1
4. # 5 AD VALOREM 20-1
5. #2 ARTIE SCHILLER 6-1
ANALYSIS: The world’s best turf horses aren’t the ones that race here in America, where dirt racing is predominant. For that reason, I think the spectacular LEROIDESINAMAUX is vulnerable. He has won eight races in a row since coming to America and the last couple were annihilations. But I have a live longshot in MAJORS CAST, who is very likely to be overlooked by uninformed bettors. He ran a credible third in his last race two months ago in France against the toughest field of turf milers in the world this year. His trainer used to train in America and knows how to get horses ready for our races. This trainer, Jeremy Noseda, scored a big upset last year in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. The horse gets treated with Lasix medication for the first time today (that often helps) and top European rider Frankie Dettori has agreed to take the mount. VALIXIR is another very strong European who was actually the odds-on favorite in the French race Majors Cast ran in. Alas, he finished fifth in that one. AD VALOREM is another European who ran a very poor race in Kentucky four weeks ago in his first American start. He broke slowly in that one and I’m not giving up on him. ARTIE SCHILLER always runs well and is based at Belmont. I can’t believe I have him as low as fifth because he has a big shot to win this one and will be on my pick three and pick four tickets.
DISTAFF
1. #12 SWEET SYMPHONY 8-1
2. #5 YOLANDA B. TOO 30-1
3. #6 HEALTHY ADDICTION 10-1
4. #1 SOCIETY SELECTION 8-1
5. #7 HAPPY TICKET 6-1
ANALYSIS: Bombs away! This is the dirt race for older females and I think the heavy favorite, ASHADO, is vulnerable and I don’t even have her in my top five. This could be the race that blows up the tote board with longshots. I actually give every horse in here except #9 and #13 a real shot of winning. SWEET SYMPHONY is a three year old who won the first four races of her career before faltering last out in a race that included many of these. I think she’ll improve off that race. Her trainer, Bill Mott, has won eight Breeders Cup races over the years. YOLANDA B. TOO is listed at 30-1 on the morning line but may go off closer to 65-1. Bet on her. Another three year old, she has had bad starts in three of her five races. If she breaks cleanly, she has a chance to steal this race. I factored in a loss of four lengths for each of her bad breaks and came up with a speed figure that is tops in the field had she broken cleanly. HEALTHY ADDICTION is a California runner whose trainer is always dangerous when he chooses to ship a horse cross-country. SOCIETY SELECTION would have been my pick except her post position is very difficult at this distance at this track. Her win would give her 80-year old Hall of Fame trainer his first ever Breeders Cup win. There is a very good chance it’ll happen if the rail post position doesn’t do her in. I actually love HAPPY TICKET. She’s 10-for-12 lifetime with most of those wins coming in cheap Louisiana races but she hasn’t missed a beat since coming to the big leagues.
TURF
1. #5 AZAMOUR 7-2
2. #3 BAGO 5-1
3. #7 SHAKESPEARE 3-1
4. #2 SHIROCCO 20-1
5. #4 BETTER TALK NOW 8-1
ANALYSIS: The American based grass horses this year were terrible and the American contingent in this race is disgracefully bad. SHAKESPEARE, who is 5-for-5, is the only American with a real shot. More likely is AZAMOUR. He won two high level races in a row in Britain this summer before faltering to fifth in his last race in Ireland, losing to Oratorio (a horse that runs in the Breeders Cup Classic in the next race). He has been rested since whereas the other Europeans ran in the Arc de Triomphe last month in France and may be a little weary. BAGO won the Arc last year and finished third this year but his trainer may have been using the Arc to set him up for this race. SHIROCCO was a respectable fourth in the Arc and his French trainer is always a threat in Breeders Cup races (including the biggest upset ever with Arcangues’ 133-1 upset win in the Classic a decade ago). BETTER TALK NOW won this race last year and has an outside shot again.
10th Race , Breeders' Cup Classic
Post Time: 4:35PM (local time)
Distance/Restrictions: 1 1/4 Miles, Dirt, 3 Year Olds and Up, STAKES
Purse: $4,000,000 Grade: 1
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Wagering Head2Head Wagering #1 Vs. #11
Post position
Owner • Horse [ click red text for bio and stats ]
Horses are listed in post position order
Trainer
Jockey
1
Mercedes Stable, LLC & Pickens
Richard E. Mandella
Gary L. Stevens
Rock Hard Ten (KY) (scratched on 10/28/05)
Dk B/BrDark Bay or Brown - C - Foaled on: April 05, 2001
Morning Line Odds
Scratched
2
Tracy Farmer
Nicholas P. Zito
Rafael Bejarano
Sun King (KY)
Dk B/BrDark Bay or Brown - C - Foaled on: January 31, 2002
Morning Line Odds
30/1
3
Robert D. Bone
Jeff Mullins
Alex O. Solis
Choctaw Nation (KY)
BBay - G - Foaled on: March 03, 2000
Morning Line Odds
15/1
4
Mrs. John Magnier & Michael Tabor
Aidan P. O'Brien
Kieren Fallon
Oratorio (IRE)
BBay - C - Foaled on: April 29, 2002
Morning Line Odds
10/1
5
Stonecrest Farm
Murray W. Johnson
Mark Guidry
Perfect Drift (KY)
BBay - G - Foaled on: April 29, 1999
Morning Line Odds
12/1
6
Tracy Farmer
Nicholas P. Zito
Rafael Bejarano
Sir Shackleton (KY)
CHChestnut - C - Foaled on: March 26, 2001
Morning Line Odds
20/1
7
Millennium Farms Rosendo G. Parra
Vladimir Cerin
Victor Espinoza
Super Frolic (KY)
CHChestnut - H - Foaled on: April 25, 2000
Morning Line Odds
30/1
8
Jay Em Ess Stable
Paul J. McGee
Edgar S. Prado
Suave (KY)
BBay - C - Foaled on: May 11, 2001
Morning Line Odds
20/1
9
Melnyk Racing Stables, Inc.
Todd A. Pletcher
John R. Velazquez
Flower Alley (KY)
CHChestnut - C - Foaled on: May 07, 2002
Morning Line Odds
10/1
10
The International Carnival Partnership
Gerard A. Butler
Lanfranco Dettori
Jack Sullivan (KY)
CHChestnut - G - Foaled on: April 01, 2001
Morning Line Odds
50/1
11
Kelly, Jon, Scott, Brad, Ralls and Foster
C. Beau Greely
Garrett K. Gomez
Borrego (KY)
CHChestnut - C - Foaled on: May 17, 2001
Morning Line Odds
9/2
12
The Two Bit Racing Stable
Catherine Day Phillips
Jono C. Jones
A Bit O'Gold (ON)
CHChestnut - G - Foaled on: March 26, 2001
Morning Line Odds
30/1
13
Warren, Jr., Mr. and Mrs. William K.
Richard Dutrow, Jr.
Jerry D. Bailey
Saint Liam (KY)
BBay - H - Foaled on: April 13, 2000
Morning Line Odds
3/1
14
Australian Syndicate
Blue, White Sash, Red Sleeves, Red Cap
Luca M. Cumani
Patrick A. Valenzuela
Starcraft (NZ)
CHChestnut - H - Foaled on: October 21, 2000
Morning Line Odds
12/1
Belling's Picks
1. #9 FLOWER ALLEY 10-1
2. #13 SAINT LIAM 3-1
3. #8 SUAVE 20-1
4. #6 SIR SHACKLETON 20-1
5. #11 BORREGO 9-2
6. #4 ORATORIO 10-1
7. #3 CHOCTAW NATION 15-1
8. #5 PERFECT DRIFT 12-1
9. #14 STARCRAFT 12-1
ANALYSIS: I listed nine of the fourteen runners because I think all of the above have a chance to win. I was torn between FLOWER ALLEY and Rock Hard Ten until Rock Hard Ten was scratched Friday because of a foot bruise. FLOWER ALLEY is a three year old who ran spectacularly this summer. He clunked last time out on this very track and that’s a concern but he has been working brilliantly since. His trainer and jockey have dominated New York racing the last two years. SAINT LIAM has the fastest speed figures of any horse in here and a trainer who’s been caught more than once using illegal medications but the distance might be too long. SUAVE is coming off two strong races in a row and always gets overlooked in the betting. SIR SHACKLETON is a sneaky longshot. Trainer Nick Zito has given him two months rest and has worked him on the endurance-style training track at Saratoga. Zito has won major races with that regimen in the past. BORREGO is coming off two outstanding wins. ORATORIO is a European who makes his first start ever on dirt but his trainer almost pulled off a win in this race several years ago doing the same thing. CHOCTAW NATION has an outside shot if the officials don’t keep an eye on his trainer and vet. PERFECT DRIFT is a wonderful American horse who just keeps on running year after year and always comes up a bit short in the biggest races. STARCRAFT would have been co-favorite in the Mile with Leroidesinamaux but his owners decided to go for the big money in this $4 million race. If Star runs as well on dirt as he does on grass, he could win.
LIKELIEST WINNER OF THE DAY: (tie) Majors Cast in the Mile and Azamour in the Turf
BEST LONGSHOT OF THE DAY: Yolanda B. Too in the Distaff
FAVORITE BET OF THE DAY FOR HIGH ROLLERS: $1 pick four on the last four races using my top two in the Mile, my top five in the Distaff, my top four in the Turf and my top nine in the Classic (total cost $360).
FAVORITE BET OF THE DAY FOR NORMAL PEOPLE: $1 exacta box in the Mile with Majors Cast over and under all other horses (total cost $22)
FAVORITE BET OF THE DAY FOR CHEAPSKATES: $1 pick three using Majors Cast in the Mile, Yolanda B. Too in the Distaff and my top four choices in the Turf (total cost: $4)
PREVIEW
The Breeders Cup World Thoroughbred Championships consist of eight races covering the various divisions of horse racing. The event moves to different locations each year and this year is at Belmont Park in New York. Heavy rain the last two weeks (and possibly on race day) means the turf course may favor stamina horses and the dirt course could be wet. These races provide outstanding sport — because of the high level competition and relative closeness in ability — but also tremendous wagering opportunities. Because the fields are large and even the tenth or eleventh best horse in a race is still an outstanding animal, not only do longshots win but often run 1-2-3-4. This has created enormous payoffs on bets like exactas (pick the top two), trifectas (the top three) and superfectas (the top four). Cat Thief’s win in the Breeders Cup Classic a few years ago keyed a $692,000 superfecta — all for a measly $2 bet! But the biggest payoffs of all can come with bets like the pick three (winners of three races in a row), the pick four (four in a row) and the biggest of all in the pick six (pick the winners of the last six). Two years ago no one hit the pick six and the winnings were divided among all who picked five. But twice in the last several years, a single bettor picked all six and took down the entire pool. In both cases, the payoff topped $3 million.
For the above reasons, it doesn’t make sense to bet only on short-priced favorites. What follows is my ranking of the top five horses in each race. When in doubt about two closely matched horses, I ranked the longer shot higher. Still, the picks should be interpreted as my choices of the likelihood of winning, regardless of the odds.
Breeders' Cup Races
Click on the link for each race to go to a web page that has the details for the odds, owners, trainers, jockeys and their colors
Race
Distance
Age/Sex
Purse
Post*
Breeders' Cup Classic
1 1/4 Miles
3 Year Olds & Up
$4 Million
4:35 pm
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Distaff
1 1/8 Miles
3 Year Olds & Up Fillies & Mares
$2 Million
3:20 pm
VO5 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
1 1/16 Miles
2 Year Old Fillies
$1 Million
12:20 pm
NetJets Breeders' Cup Mile
1 Mile
3 Year Olds & Up
$1.5 Million
2:45 pm
TVG Breeders' Cup Sprint
6 Furlongs
3 Year Olds & Up
$1 Million
2:10 pm
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
1 3/8 Miles
3 Year Olds & Up - Fillies & Mares
$1 Million
1:35 pm
Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile
1 1/16 Miles
2 Year Old Colts & Geldings
$1.5 Million
12:55 pm
John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf
1 1/2 Miles
3 Year Olds & Up
$2 Million
3:55 pm
* Central Daylight Time
JUVENILE FILLIES
(This is the third race on the Belmont Park program but the first of the Breeders Cup Races. The Breeders Cup Races are races 3-10.)
Horse Morning Line Odds
1. #5 KNIGHTS TEMPLAR 12-1
2. #4 DIAMOND OMI 12-1
3. #1 FOLKLORE 8-1
4. #7 SENSATION 8-1
5. #2 ORIGINAL SPIN 6-1
ANALYSIS: This is the race for two year old fillies. My choice, KNIGHTS TEMPLAR, just romped in a big stakes in Canada where she earned a competitive speed figure. She will be overlooked in the wagering as bettors focus on horses that won higher profile races in America. DIAMOND OMI lacks speed figures of the best in here but is trained by future Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. She's an improving horse and Baffert is high on her. FOLKLORE won a shorter race by 14 lengths and has been given six weeks rest by trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who is always dangerous in races for young horses. SENSATION, the likely frontrunner, romped in a prep race against softer competition. ORIGINAL SPIN is making only the third start of her life but her last was an eye-popping win at Arlington Park in Chicago. (I know this because I was there and my eyes popped).
JUVENILE
1. #10 HENNY HUGHES 5-1
2. #9 FIRST SAMURAI 8-5
3. #12 STEVIE WONDERBOY 8-1
4. #4 SET ALIGHT 20-1
5. #11 PRIVATE VOW 8-1
ANALYSIS: This is the race for two year old colts and the field is much stronger than the so-so group of fillies in the first race. HENNY HUGHES set a shockingly torrid pace in his last, a race won by FIRST SAMURAI. Henny’s owners were so furious at the suicidal tactics they fired the trainer and replaced the jockey. Henny doesn’t have to be on the lead and a more sensible ride could produce the mild upset. Samurai is the best two year old in the country but may tire the final sixteenth of a mile. STEVIE WONDERBOY will be the star attraction of the race because he’s owned by Merv Griffin and named after Elton John, I mean, Stevie Wonder. He was given nearly two months of rest for this race---a tactic that usually doesn’t work with young horses running route races. SET ALIGHT is the best of the foreign horses in this race and tries dirt for the first time, a surface he is bred for. He could score a big upset. PRIVATE VOW is very fast and may be on the lead but is unlikely to hang on.
FILLY AND MARE TURF
1. #7 WONDER AGAIN 8-1
2. #13 OUIJA BOARD 5-2
3. #8 MEGAHERTZ 5-1
4. #11 MONA LISA 15-1
5. #12 KAREN’S CAPER 15-1
ANALYSIS: WONDER AGAIN is 0-for-4 this year but has raced well each time. She is based at Belmont Park and her trainer is famous for his work with female grass runners. I really like her chances here. OUIJA BOARD won this last year but has only raced twice this year because of injuries but her last race in England sets her up perfectly. MEGAHERTZ is the best of the American fillies who race on the turf and has a very good shot. MONA LISA is a three year old European who is rounding into top form. KAREN’S CAPER is another European who finished third in her first American race four weeks ago in Kentucky but should have won had her rider not gotten her boxed in the entire stretch.
SPRINT
1. #6 WILDCAT HEIR 10-1
2. #7 LOST IN THE FOG even
3. #1 TASTE OF PARADISE 12-1
4. #4 BATTLE WON 10-1
5. #3 SILVER TRAIN 8-1
ANALYSIS: LOST IN THE FOG will be the biggest favorite of the day and for good reason. He’s run ten races and won every one of them. Further, he’s won so easily that his rider has never really asked him for his best effort. If he loses, there’ll be huge payoffs here. I’m going with WILDCAT HEIR, a chronically injured horse who has run only eleven times despite the fact he’s a six year old. But he’s finished first or second in ten of those eleven and turned in a huge speed figure in his only race this year although that was against a very soft field. Still, he is the fastest horse in here including the big favorite. TASTE OF PARADISE won a prep race over this track and his trainer is the son of a guy who always gets his horses primed for big efforts on Breeders Cup day. BATTLE WON ran in a sprint race on the turf in Kentucky in his last race and that should set him up well for this race on the dirt. SILVER TRAIN’s notorious trainer has completely turned this horse around since he got him earlier in the year and he could win this one by stalking the frontrunners and nailing them late.
MILE
1. #7 MAJORS CAST 15-1
2. #11 LEROIDESINAMAUX 7-5
3. #10 VALIXIR 10-1
4. # 5 AD VALOREM 20-1
5. #2 ARTIE SCHILLER 6-1
ANALYSIS: The world’s best turf horses aren’t the ones that race here in America, where dirt racing is predominant. For that reason, I think the spectacular LEROIDESINAMAUX is vulnerable. He has won eight races in a row since coming to America and the last couple were annihilations. But I have a live longshot in MAJORS CAST, who is very likely to be overlooked by uninformed bettors. He ran a credible third in his last race two months ago in France against the toughest field of turf milers in the world this year. His trainer used to train in America and knows how to get horses ready for our races. This trainer, Jeremy Noseda, scored a big upset last year in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. The horse gets treated with Lasix medication for the first time today (that often helps) and top European rider Frankie Dettori has agreed to take the mount. VALIXIR is another very strong European who was actually the odds-on favorite in the French race Majors Cast ran in. Alas, he finished fifth in that one. AD VALOREM is another European who ran a very poor race in Kentucky four weeks ago in his first American start. He broke slowly in that one and I’m not giving up on him. ARTIE SCHILLER always runs well and is based at Belmont. I can’t believe I have him as low as fifth because he has a big shot to win this one and will be on my pick three and pick four tickets.
DISTAFF
1. #12 SWEET SYMPHONY 8-1
2. #5 YOLANDA B. TOO 30-1
3. #6 HEALTHY ADDICTION 10-1
4. #1 SOCIETY SELECTION 8-1
5. #7 HAPPY TICKET 6-1
ANALYSIS: Bombs away! This is the dirt race for older females and I think the heavy favorite, ASHADO, is vulnerable and I don’t even have her in my top five. This could be the race that blows up the tote board with longshots. I actually give every horse in here except #9 and #13 a real shot of winning. SWEET SYMPHONY is a three year old who won the first four races of her career before faltering last out in a race that included many of these. I think she’ll improve off that race. Her trainer, Bill Mott, has won eight Breeders Cup races over the years. YOLANDA B. TOO is listed at 30-1 on the morning line but may go off closer to 65-1. Bet on her. Another three year old, she has had bad starts in three of her five races. If she breaks cleanly, she has a chance to steal this race. I factored in a loss of four lengths for each of her bad breaks and came up with a speed figure that is tops in the field had she broken cleanly. HEALTHY ADDICTION is a California runner whose trainer is always dangerous when he chooses to ship a horse cross-country. SOCIETY SELECTION would have been my pick except her post position is very difficult at this distance at this track. Her win would give her 80-year old Hall of Fame trainer his first ever Breeders Cup win. There is a very good chance it’ll happen if the rail post position doesn’t do her in. I actually love HAPPY TICKET. She’s 10-for-12 lifetime with most of those wins coming in cheap Louisiana races but she hasn’t missed a beat since coming to the big leagues.
TURF
1. #5 AZAMOUR 7-2
2. #3 BAGO 5-1
3. #7 SHAKESPEARE 3-1
4. #2 SHIROCCO 20-1
5. #4 BETTER TALK NOW 8-1
ANALYSIS: The American based grass horses this year were terrible and the American contingent in this race is disgracefully bad. SHAKESPEARE, who is 5-for-5, is the only American with a real shot. More likely is AZAMOUR. He won two high level races in a row in Britain this summer before faltering to fifth in his last race in Ireland, losing to Oratorio (a horse that runs in the Breeders Cup Classic in the next race). He has been rested since whereas the other Europeans ran in the Arc de Triomphe last month in France and may be a little weary. BAGO won the Arc last year and finished third this year but his trainer may have been using the Arc to set him up for this race. SHIROCCO was a respectable fourth in the Arc and his French trainer is always a threat in Breeders Cup races (including the biggest upset ever with Arcangues’ 133-1 upset win in the Classic a decade ago). BETTER TALK NOW won this race last year and has an outside shot again.
10th Race , Breeders' Cup Classic
Post Time: 4:35PM (local time)
Distance/Restrictions: 1 1/4 Miles, Dirt, 3 Year Olds and Up, STAKES
Purse: $4,000,000 Grade: 1
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Wagering Head2Head Wagering #1 Vs. #11
Post position
Owner • Horse [ click red text for bio and stats ]
Horses are listed in post position order
Trainer
Jockey
1
Mercedes Stable, LLC & Pickens
Richard E. Mandella
Gary L. Stevens
Rock Hard Ten (KY) (scratched on 10/28/05)
Dk B/BrDark Bay or Brown - C - Foaled on: April 05, 2001
Morning Line Odds
Scratched
2
Tracy Farmer
Nicholas P. Zito
Rafael Bejarano
Sun King (KY)
Dk B/BrDark Bay or Brown - C - Foaled on: January 31, 2002
Morning Line Odds
30/1
3
Robert D. Bone
Jeff Mullins
Alex O. Solis
Choctaw Nation (KY)
BBay - G - Foaled on: March 03, 2000
Morning Line Odds
15/1
4
Mrs. John Magnier & Michael Tabor
Aidan P. O'Brien
Kieren Fallon
Oratorio (IRE)
BBay - C - Foaled on: April 29, 2002
Morning Line Odds
10/1
5
Stonecrest Farm
Murray W. Johnson
Mark Guidry
Perfect Drift (KY)
BBay - G - Foaled on: April 29, 1999
Morning Line Odds
12/1
6
Tracy Farmer
Nicholas P. Zito
Rafael Bejarano
Sir Shackleton (KY)
CHChestnut - C - Foaled on: March 26, 2001
Morning Line Odds
20/1
7
Millennium Farms Rosendo G. Parra
Vladimir Cerin
Victor Espinoza
Super Frolic (KY)
CHChestnut - H - Foaled on: April 25, 2000
Morning Line Odds
30/1
8
Jay Em Ess Stable
Paul J. McGee
Edgar S. Prado
Suave (KY)
BBay - C - Foaled on: May 11, 2001
Morning Line Odds
20/1
9
Melnyk Racing Stables, Inc.
Todd A. Pletcher
John R. Velazquez
Flower Alley (KY)
CHChestnut - C - Foaled on: May 07, 2002
Morning Line Odds
10/1
10
The International Carnival Partnership
Gerard A. Butler
Lanfranco Dettori
Jack Sullivan (KY)
CHChestnut - G - Foaled on: April 01, 2001
Morning Line Odds
50/1
11
Kelly, Jon, Scott, Brad, Ralls and Foster
C. Beau Greely
Garrett K. Gomez
Borrego (KY)
CHChestnut - C - Foaled on: May 17, 2001
Morning Line Odds
9/2
12
The Two Bit Racing Stable
Catherine Day Phillips
Jono C. Jones
A Bit O'Gold (ON)
CHChestnut - G - Foaled on: March 26, 2001
Morning Line Odds
30/1
13
Warren, Jr., Mr. and Mrs. William K.
Richard Dutrow, Jr.
Jerry D. Bailey
Saint Liam (KY)
BBay - H - Foaled on: April 13, 2000
Morning Line Odds
3/1
14
Australian Syndicate
Blue, White Sash, Red Sleeves, Red Cap
Luca M. Cumani
Patrick A. Valenzuela
Starcraft (NZ)
CHChestnut - H - Foaled on: October 21, 2000
Morning Line Odds
12/1
Belling's Picks
1. #9 FLOWER ALLEY 10-1
2. #13 SAINT LIAM 3-1
3. #8 SUAVE 20-1
4. #6 SIR SHACKLETON 20-1
5. #11 BORREGO 9-2
6. #4 ORATORIO 10-1
7. #3 CHOCTAW NATION 15-1
8. #5 PERFECT DRIFT 12-1
9. #14 STARCRAFT 12-1
ANALYSIS: I listed nine of the fourteen runners because I think all of the above have a chance to win. I was torn between FLOWER ALLEY and Rock Hard Ten until Rock Hard Ten was scratched Friday because of a foot bruise. FLOWER ALLEY is a three year old who ran spectacularly this summer. He clunked last time out on this very track and that’s a concern but he has been working brilliantly since. His trainer and jockey have dominated New York racing the last two years. SAINT LIAM has the fastest speed figures of any horse in here and a trainer who’s been caught more than once using illegal medications but the distance might be too long. SUAVE is coming off two strong races in a row and always gets overlooked in the betting. SIR SHACKLETON is a sneaky longshot. Trainer Nick Zito has given him two months rest and has worked him on the endurance-style training track at Saratoga. Zito has won major races with that regimen in the past. BORREGO is coming off two outstanding wins. ORATORIO is a European who makes his first start ever on dirt but his trainer almost pulled off a win in this race several years ago doing the same thing. CHOCTAW NATION has an outside shot if the officials don’t keep an eye on his trainer and vet. PERFECT DRIFT is a wonderful American horse who just keeps on running year after year and always comes up a bit short in the biggest races. STARCRAFT would have been co-favorite in the Mile with Leroidesinamaux but his owners decided to go for the big money in this $4 million race. If Star runs as well on dirt as he does on grass, he could win.
LIKELIEST WINNER OF THE DAY: (tie) Majors Cast in the Mile and Azamour in the Turf
BEST LONGSHOT OF THE DAY: Yolanda B. Too in the Distaff
FAVORITE BET OF THE DAY FOR HIGH ROLLERS: $1 pick four on the last four races using my top two in the Mile, my top five in the Distaff, my top four in the Turf and my top nine in the Classic (total cost $360).
FAVORITE BET OF THE DAY FOR NORMAL PEOPLE: $1 exacta box in the Mile with Majors Cast over and under all other horses (total cost $22)
FAVORITE BET OF THE DAY FOR CHEAPSKATES: $1 pick three using Majors Cast in the Mile, Yolanda B. Too in the Distaff and my top four choices in the Turf (total cost: $4)
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