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BREEDERS’ CUP CHAMP Saturday, Oct 29, 2005
$1M Alberto VO5 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies: 1:20 pm
$1.5M Bessmer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile: 1:55 pm
$1M Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf: 2:35 pm
$1M TVG breeders' Cup Sprint: 3:10 pm
$1.5M NetJets Breeders' Cup Mile: 3:45 pm
$2M Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Distaff: 4:20 pm
$2M John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf: 4:55 pm
$4M Breeders' Cup Classic - Powered by Dodge: 5:35 pm
My favorite time of the year. Try to provide the best preview that I can. I am going try to have it done by Wednesday, then post the post-positions Wednesday night.
HORSE TRAINER PROB JOCKEY ODDS*
COMMENT
Angara (GB) P. Biacone G. Stevens 20-1
Last in Flower Bowl, worst buyer of career.
Favourable Terms (GB) M. Stoute 20-1
Group 1 winner of more than $500,000, the five-year-old mare has won 6 of 10 career starts.
Film Maker H.G. Motion TBD 15-1
Runner-up finish in the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Odds will be nice again.
Flip Flop (FR) B. Cecil 20-1
Runner up in Yellow Ribbon; deeper race here.
Intercontinental (GB) R. Frankel J. Baily 8-1
The best female miler. This distance is an issue. 0-for-2 lifetime in races longer than one-mile-and-one-sixteenth
Karen’s Caper J. Gosden R. Albarado 20-1
Took nasty beat last time out.
Luas Line (IRE) D. Wachman 20-1
Flopped in the Queen Elizabeth II.
Megahertz (GB) R. Frankel A. Solis 5-1
Tough mare has not done well in this. May be last start of career.
Mona Lisa (GB) A. O’Brien K. Fallon 15-1
Mona Lisa simply doesn't win often, witnessed by 13 losses in 14 starts
Ouija Board (GB) E. Dunlop K. Fallon 5-2
Won this last year in only US appearance. Only 3 starts this year, coming off injury. Will be threat.
Riskaverse P. Kelly J. Santos 15-1
Upsetting the 2004 and 2005 editions of the Grade 1 Flower Bowl.
Loves Belmont grass. Also may be last start.
Sundrop (JPN) S. bin. Suroor 20-1
Wend W. Mott J. Valazquez 15-1
Late bloomer did not debut until November of her three-year-old season in 2004, but blossomed into a top American turf runner this year.
Wonder Again J. Toner E. Prado 6-1
Wonder Again’s connections kept her in training this season strictly to run in this race because of her affinity for Belmont Park.
ANALSIS:
According to the Belmont track superintendent, the rail that is out on both turf courses at Belmont will be taken down for Breeders' Cup day, so the horses will be running on turf that has not had a horse on it for at least six weeks. If rain continues (should be clear Saturday), the turf will favor Wonder Again, who likes soft, yielding grass, while hurting Megahertz and Intercontinental who prefer a firmer turf. Injuries have limited defending champ Ouija Board, so she might nut be as good as she was in 2004.
LIVE LONGSHOTS:
Film Maker, 2nd last year and Riskaverse, who loves Belmont lawn, don’t win often, but both have solid late kicks to land a share. Karens Caper looked good with a late run coming around horses and getting a disappointing photo for 2nd last time out (even though I had the 18-1 winner, I believe Karens caper won the race). Favourable Terms a lot better than last race and is a good price.
MONEY MATTERS:
Exatas and Trifectas with keying Ouija Board and Wonder Again with Film Maker, Riskaverse, Favourable Terms, Karens Caper, Mona Lisa. Exata box with the latter 5 as well. Karens Caper to win.
*ODDS by Mike Watchmaker (Daily Racing Form)
**Also Eligible (in order of preference)
$1M Alberto VO5 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies: 1:20 pm
$1.5M Bessmer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile: 1:55 pm
$1M Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf: 2:35 pm
$1M TVG breeders' Cup Sprint: 3:10 pm
$1.5M NetJets Breeders' Cup Mile: 3:45 pm
$2M Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Distaff: 4:20 pm
$2M John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf: 4:55 pm
$4M Breeders' Cup Classic - Powered by Dodge: 5:35 pm
My favorite time of the year. Try to provide the best preview that I can. I am going try to have it done by Wednesday, then post the post-positions Wednesday night.
HORSE TRAINER PROB JOCKEY ODDS*
COMMENT
Angara (GB) P. Biacone G. Stevens 20-1
Last in Flower Bowl, worst buyer of career.
Favourable Terms (GB) M. Stoute 20-1
Group 1 winner of more than $500,000, the five-year-old mare has won 6 of 10 career starts.
Film Maker H.G. Motion TBD 15-1
Runner-up finish in the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Odds will be nice again.
Flip Flop (FR) B. Cecil 20-1
Runner up in Yellow Ribbon; deeper race here.
Intercontinental (GB) R. Frankel J. Baily 8-1
The best female miler. This distance is an issue. 0-for-2 lifetime in races longer than one-mile-and-one-sixteenth
Karen’s Caper J. Gosden R. Albarado 20-1
Took nasty beat last time out.
Luas Line (IRE) D. Wachman 20-1
Flopped in the Queen Elizabeth II.
Megahertz (GB) R. Frankel A. Solis 5-1
Tough mare has not done well in this. May be last start of career.
Mona Lisa (GB) A. O’Brien K. Fallon 15-1
Mona Lisa simply doesn't win often, witnessed by 13 losses in 14 starts
Ouija Board (GB) E. Dunlop K. Fallon 5-2
Won this last year in only US appearance. Only 3 starts this year, coming off injury. Will be threat.
Riskaverse P. Kelly J. Santos 15-1
Upsetting the 2004 and 2005 editions of the Grade 1 Flower Bowl.
Loves Belmont grass. Also may be last start.
Sundrop (JPN) S. bin. Suroor 20-1
Wend W. Mott J. Valazquez 15-1
Late bloomer did not debut until November of her three-year-old season in 2004, but blossomed into a top American turf runner this year.
Wonder Again J. Toner E. Prado 6-1
Wonder Again’s connections kept her in training this season strictly to run in this race because of her affinity for Belmont Park.
ANALSIS:
According to the Belmont track superintendent, the rail that is out on both turf courses at Belmont will be taken down for Breeders' Cup day, so the horses will be running on turf that has not had a horse on it for at least six weeks. If rain continues (should be clear Saturday), the turf will favor Wonder Again, who likes soft, yielding grass, while hurting Megahertz and Intercontinental who prefer a firmer turf. Injuries have limited defending champ Ouija Board, so she might nut be as good as she was in 2004.
LIVE LONGSHOTS:
Film Maker, 2nd last year and Riskaverse, who loves Belmont lawn, don’t win often, but both have solid late kicks to land a share. Karens Caper looked good with a late run coming around horses and getting a disappointing photo for 2nd last time out (even though I had the 18-1 winner, I believe Karens caper won the race). Favourable Terms a lot better than last race and is a good price.
MONEY MATTERS:
Exatas and Trifectas with keying Ouija Board and Wonder Again with Film Maker, Riskaverse, Favourable Terms, Karens Caper, Mona Lisa. Exata box with the latter 5 as well. Karens Caper to win.
*ODDS by Mike Watchmaker (Daily Racing Form)
**Also Eligible (in order of preference)
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