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SPEEDFIGURES . COM -- DAILY SPOT PLAY
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DMR -- Race #11 -- FLOWER ALLEY (#7)
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Rather than do a spot play at Del Mar today we thought we'd toss out a pick for the Travers at Saratoga. It's the million dollar "Summer Derby" at 1-1/4 miles. Par is a 113.
FLOWER ALLEY (3-1) is the 3rd choice on the morning line and should run a bang-up race today. He came off a 60-day layoff between the Kentucky Derby and the Dwyer and lost a neck to Roman Ruler but earned a figure of 108-108-111. He followed that up with a huge win in the Jim Dandy with a 115-118-114+. That figure is a few lengths faster than anything ROMAN RULER has done in his career to date. If FLOWER ALLEY repeats his last effort which was a win at 1-1/8 miles over this same track then it seems all he would have to worry about would be if BELLAMY ROAD returned to something near his top Wood Memorial figure. BELLAMY is now trying 1-1/4 miles again off a Kentucky Derby layoff and slight injury so I'm betting against him returning immediately to top form. That leaves FLOWER ALLEY as a good solid win candidate as the overlooked 3rd choice today.
ROMAN RULER beat FLOWER ALLEY by a neck in the Dwyer with a 111 figure but then didn't improve his figure when winning the Haskell at Monmouth next time out. The Dwyer figure remains his lifetime best and he may not be able to handle the new and improved FLOWER ALLEY today. But it still looks like they could form the exacta again in this race.
We still respect BELLAMY ROAD. His allowance win at Gulfstream was a 117-117-111+ and his 124-126-118+ win in the Wood Memorial remains the biggest figure we've ever given to a 3 year old prepping for the Kentucky Derby. But despite the fact that we think he's ultra-talented we would certainly forgive him if he came back with something less than his top figure because coming off an injury at 1-1/4 miles for $1 million is not an easy task. Last year Birdstone won this race off a layoff since the Belmont but the layoff was 6 weeks shorter than Bellamy's and Birdstone wasn't coming off a small injury in that time. All things considered, if we owned BELLAMY ROAD we wouldn't want him to be life and death to win this race and then go back on the shelf when there are bigger races down the line. FLOWER ALLEY is the "now" horse.
FLOWER ALLEY is the special spot play win bet and key over ROMAN RULER and BELLAMY ROAD for the exotics. Good luck.
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DMR -- Race #11 -- FLOWER ALLEY (#7)
__________________________________________________ __________________
Rather than do a spot play at Del Mar today we thought we'd toss out a pick for the Travers at Saratoga. It's the million dollar "Summer Derby" at 1-1/4 miles. Par is a 113.
FLOWER ALLEY (3-1) is the 3rd choice on the morning line and should run a bang-up race today. He came off a 60-day layoff between the Kentucky Derby and the Dwyer and lost a neck to Roman Ruler but earned a figure of 108-108-111. He followed that up with a huge win in the Jim Dandy with a 115-118-114+. That figure is a few lengths faster than anything ROMAN RULER has done in his career to date. If FLOWER ALLEY repeats his last effort which was a win at 1-1/8 miles over this same track then it seems all he would have to worry about would be if BELLAMY ROAD returned to something near his top Wood Memorial figure. BELLAMY is now trying 1-1/4 miles again off a Kentucky Derby layoff and slight injury so I'm betting against him returning immediately to top form. That leaves FLOWER ALLEY as a good solid win candidate as the overlooked 3rd choice today.
ROMAN RULER beat FLOWER ALLEY by a neck in the Dwyer with a 111 figure but then didn't improve his figure when winning the Haskell at Monmouth next time out. The Dwyer figure remains his lifetime best and he may not be able to handle the new and improved FLOWER ALLEY today. But it still looks like they could form the exacta again in this race.
We still respect BELLAMY ROAD. His allowance win at Gulfstream was a 117-117-111+ and his 124-126-118+ win in the Wood Memorial remains the biggest figure we've ever given to a 3 year old prepping for the Kentucky Derby. But despite the fact that we think he's ultra-talented we would certainly forgive him if he came back with something less than his top figure because coming off an injury at 1-1/4 miles for $1 million is not an easy task. Last year Birdstone won this race off a layoff since the Belmont but the layoff was 6 weeks shorter than Bellamy's and Birdstone wasn't coming off a small injury in that time. All things considered, if we owned BELLAMY ROAD we wouldn't want him to be life and death to win this race and then go back on the shelf when there are bigger races down the line. FLOWER ALLEY is the "now" horse.
FLOWER ALLEY is the special spot play win bet and key over ROMAN RULER and BELLAMY ROAD for the exotics. Good luck.
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