Kentucky Derby Thread

[10DimeBry]

Ok I dont claim to be a horse racing expert. So I'm turning to you out there on this site. Here is who I like to win tomorrow's race.

WINNER- Afleet Alex 9-2

Horses who I feel have a shot to finish in the the W,P,S basically horses who I think have a chance to make me a few $$$ mixed in with Afleet Alex

Wilco 20-1
Buzzards Bay 20-1

Any thoughts and your winner/longshots would be appreciated.

[kbsooner21]

What is the name of Steinbrenner's horse???

[10DimeBry]

Bellamy Road 5-2 favorite

[savage1]

Bellamy Road 5-2 favorite

It probably won't happen, but wouldn't it be ironic if somehow his horse has a bad day and finishes dead last to match his Yankees.

[The Lovedoc]

High Fly 8-1
Afleet Alex 9-2

$20 Exacta Box

Bry, i have seen High Fly run before... Ran like a fucking champ!! thats my horse i'm playing this year...I will also use him in a triple


$24 Superfecta
High Fly
Afleet Alex
Bellamy Rd
Coin Silver

[fosterkeats]

BC Gonzo's Derby Preview

http://www.gonzofixer.com/id131.html


Check out Gonzo's Derby Preview and what he has to say about the renovations to Churchill Downs... hilarious...

[rxpert]

Derby evaluation

My cousin is very knowledgable & sent the following to me. Depends on what your risk/ benefit ratio to determine on whom you'll bet. He goes to the track a few days a week.
fwiw

"The Derby is one of the toughest races of the year to handicap and caution is the key word in wagering on it. This is a 20 horse race – while most races in the US have 12 or fewer starters – and these athletes will be asked to do something they have never done before – run a mile and a quarter. It would be like extending the NCAA final to three 20-minute periods or making the rim 11 feet high for that one game. Even if that were the case, you would still have to risk 11 to win 10. The nice thing about the Derby is that if you are right, you could be handsomely rewarded. Here are the horses we view as contenders:

Afleet Alex – Bounced back from lung infection to impressively take the Arkansas Derby. Questions on his breeding to go this distance but could certainly contend for top spot. Neither trainer nor jockey have Derby experience but remember Smarty Jones…

High Fly – One of five Zito entries. Has Bailey aboard and the horse likes to win. Questions on breeding for distance but if he can get the distance…

Bellamy Road – Looks clearly the best coming into the race off two impressive wins including a 17 ½ length win in the Wood Memorial. Could be a possible “bounce” candidate but works seem to indicate that he is still fit. Worries about getting used up in early speed duel but he did break his maiden by coming from off the pace. The one to beat but price may be an issue.

Bandini – Running style suits the Derby and bred to appreciate the distance. Beat the best field of the Derby preps in Bluegrass stakes win. Threat to win if he continues to improve.

Sun King – Zito trained Charismatic colt was Derby favorite for couple of weeks in late winter. Ran well as a two year old and if you are willing to toss out his Blue Grass dud he merits a long shot look.

Noble Causeway – Another Zito trainee who has improved every race. Has a good running style if a speed duel develops and is a candidate to win it all.

Spanish Chestnut – Common belief is that he is entered as the rabbit in the race to soften the field for his stablemate Bandini by insuring a solid early pace. But he is bred for the distance and if a scenario develops where the other jockeys let him run free early… Might be worth a $2 saver bet if he is at 50-1 or better. You should at least get to see your horse in the lead the first time the field passes the grandstand.

Sort It Out – Doesn’t look like he should win but can’t exclude any Derby horse trained by Bob Baffert from consideration.

Going Wild -- With Consolidator’s scratch because of a career-ending injury, he’s now the Coach’s only Derby starter. He was impressive winning the Sham Stakes in early February and ran well in the Santa Catalina but was humiliated by Bellamy Road in the Wood and thrashed in the Lexington by Flower Alley and others. Always hate to dismiss horse trained by proven Derby winner like Lukas who has won with bombs in the past. He’ll be on the lead and could get brave. If you are inclined, maybe a win saver at 40-1 or better.

Greely’s Galaxy – Could be the wise-guy horse but no Derby winner was unraced as a two year old since Apollo in 1882. Beat a suspect field in the Illinois Derby but earned a good Beyer figure for the race.

[The Lovedoc]

thanks for the insight rxpert

[aces r wild]

Sorry For The Long Write-up

Guys

Last year me and my good friend(who also owns several horses, is a great handicapper) hit the superfecta for the derby. $2 super paid roughly $41,000. We had a $1 super which paid obviously half. We did invest between $600-$700 total, after IRS took their share(the man is their at the track)we netted about $7000 a piece. If you're going to bet a triple crown race, this is the race to do it. For one, the field is so big. Once they go to the Preakness the field will likely be cut in half. And two,there is so much pool money bet on many different horses, that makes the payout even larger.

Here's how i will bet the race, the super in particular. Keep in mind i haven't talked to my partner yet. He is a great handicapper, but i have been known to hit a few myself. I will update tomorrow, after talking to him, if i dont go the track.

sun king.....zito trainer

high limit.....frankel trainer,dominguez(best jockey in md)

greely's galaxy.....imo desormeaux is a great jockey

high fly.....zito with bailey

afleet alex.....may be the winner

bandini.....personnel favorite

bellamy rd....another zito,i think sun king or high fly finish before this one

going wild....nice log shot with d. wayne lucas and the horse loves running on this track

I will bet the super something like this
ex. $1 super 123/1234/12345/1234567

IMO, Bellamy RD either wins wire to wire or he gets burned out by the other speed horses and gives the big closers a chance to win
BOL to everyone....hope to update tomorrow

[The Lovedoc]

i can't wait till the derby starts!!!

[BigWeiner]

I'm rolling with Noble Causeway (12-1)

[10DimeBry]

OK these are my horses i like now i need to know how i should play them no particular order.

afleet alex
high fly
bellamy road
wilco
bandini
sun king

[moondog22]

My picks are
1 High Fly
2 Bandini
3 Noble Causeway

[bigbill]

If you would like a full copy of the Daily Racing Form's Kentucky Derby Past Performances

This is for all the races so will take a while to download if you are using a dial-up connection.

click here:

kyderby

[Lsufan]

I'll make a smalll Tri-Box with:

Bandini
Afleet Alex
High Limit