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    Derby clocker report - notes on all horses

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thu., May 5: Kentucky Derby clocker report summary
    By MIKE WELSCH

    LOUISVILLE, Ky. - A year ago, Smarty Jones looked and trained the best of all the Kentucky Derby contenders stabled at Churchill Downs coming into the race. He then validated that opinion by not only capturing the main event but nearly sweeping the Triple Crown.

    This year's "looker" is Bellamy Road who gives every appearance of being a worthy favorite on Saturday. Although he was just one of several members of the field who left favorable impressions in the final, very chilly 10 mornings leading up to the 2005 Kentucky Derby.

    AFLEET ALEX- This year's media darling has had a rigorous week but by and large has held up quite well under the strain. Training five miles a morning on more than one occasion, he has had some good days and not as good days during his routine jogs and gallops although both his works were rock solid. Hard to say exactly how he's holding up under all those two a days, he's certainly not the most robust looking member of the field, but he is extremely talented and among the logical contenders in this race.

    ANDROMEDA'S HERO- Barely got a chance to see him since he's been stabled regularly at Keeneland until shipping here Thursday. Did finish well in his one work over the track and wouldn't be surprised to see him run late to grab one of the minor awards.

    BANDINI- Arguably the second best looking member of the field along with Bellamy Road he missed a little training last week but bounced back with several strong gallops while at times acting up on the track just like his daddy Fusaichi Pegasus. Would preferred to seehim finish just a bit stronger in his final work on Sunday but hard not to respect off his sensational effort in the Blue Grass.

    BELLAMY ROAD- A gorgeous individual who excudes class when galloping each morning his head tucked majestically between his legs as he tugs and pulls his exercise rider always trying to do a bit more. His final Derby work was nothing sort of sensational, not so much on the watch but the manner in which he was striding out as he completed the move and then galloped out so strong and so effortlessly around the turn. Gives every impression of being the most talented member of this field.

    BUZZARDS BAY- Didn't get to to see much of the Santa Anita Derby winner who did not ship here until Wednesday.

    CLOSING ARGUMENT- Has looked well since shipping over from Keeneland last weekend but seemed a bit distracted and even tried to drift out a bit during his lone local workout. Will have to be more focused if he's to outperform his long odds on Saturday.

    COIN SILVER- The least regarded of the Pletcher trio has not been asked to do quite as much as stablemates Bandini or Flower Alley over the past 10 days since he's coming up to this race on only two weeks rest. Hard to find fault with his final work during which he pulled away late from Illinois Derby runnerup Monarch Lane under moderate pressure.

    DON'T GET MAD- Has had an easy week since winning the Derby Trial last Saturday but hard to get excited about any horse coming into the Kentucky Derby on only one week's rest.

    FLOWER ALLEY- Has trained with blinkers on during several of his morning gallops and in his final work during which he outfinished Eclipse Award winner Ashado although the latter was obviously not on top of her game that morning. Does appear to be more focused with the equipment change and is a 3-year-old on the improve at this time which is always dangerous.

    GIACOMO- Another of the California contingent who did not arrive until Wednesday.

    GOING WILD- Hard to get a very good look at this longshot since he does all his training in the dark. As expected, flashed a high turn of foot in his final workout and there's little doubt he'll be a major pace factor Saturday.

    GREATER GOOD- Hits the ground hard and gives his all during morning gallops when occasionally a handful for his rider but was unimpressive in his final work, dropping far behind a workmate after being rank to the pole and not finishing with any interest despite some slow early splits. Looks like a horse heading in the wrong direction at this time.

    GREELEY'S GALAXY- His daily gallops have been impressive but both workouts were disappointing. Was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt when his first, rather unorthodox mile work from the eighth pole to the eighth pole did not quite go according to plan and he shut down badly at the end. But he failed to redeem himself when given a second chance Wednesday, again failing to finish sharply or gallop out strong in his five furlong drill.

    HIGH FLY- Doesn't have the prettiest way of going in the morning but he's trained with earnest, so much so he required two different ponies to get him around during one training session. His final work was excellent, a five furlong drill during which he easily put away a stablemate and then outfinished a second, unexpected bit of company he collared at midstretch while shading :24 for his final quarter. A real fighter whose biggest concern may be the distance.

    HIGH LIMIT- Nobody perhaps Bellamy Road is training any better coming into the race with a series of strong gallops to go along with two sharp workouts, the first during which he held his own against no less a workmate than Horse of the Year Ghostzapper. Appears to be coming up to his best race yet but like High Fly just not sure he can go 10 furlongs.

    NOBLE CAUSEWAY- Like the other Zito's he's had a great week, with a series of sharp gallops sandwiched around an excellent work in which he shaded 1:00 but still has enough left to gallop out willingly around the turn. Another dangerous 3-year-old because of the steady progress he's made of late although one of the few in the field entering the race without a stakes win on his resume'.

    SORT IT OUT- Was a bit rank breaking off in his local Derby prep and then breezed a lot quicker than expected although that type of speed might come in handy after he drew the inside post. Does not appear in the same class with some of the others.

    SPANISH CHESTNUT- Had an opportunity to see the likely pacesetter just once when the Keeneland based speedster shipped in to work Sunday. Has the quick stride and action of a typical sprinter, scampering through some swift early fractions before tiring late in his final pre-Derby trial. Should take 'em to the far turn.

    SUN KING- Came here willing to excuse his poor effort in the Blue Grass and left thinking he can bounce back with a big performance Saturday. Liked his well orchestrated final work during which he dropped well off a couple of targets and finished relatively well despite angling about six wide into the stretch and zipping through some solid early fractions over an extremely cuppy track. Looked a little lackluster coming out of the work but really picked up the bit at mid-week.

    WILKO- Arrived late and really didn't stretch his legs here until Tuesday so it was hard to get a meaningful first hand look at the reigning Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion. But after viewing a videotape and putting a watch to his workout last weekend in California, during which he outfinished 2004 Breeders' Cup Sprint contender P T's Grey Eagle and galloped out six furlongs in the vicinity of 1:11, one was left with the impression that he's rounding back to peak form at the right time.
    Racing Assistance

  • #2
    Activity Report for Thursday May 5, 2005
    By DRF CORRESPONDENTS
    AFLEET ALEX - Jogged two miles shortly after sunrise, jogged a mile and galloped one mile and one half after the renovation break.

    ANDROMEDA'S HERO - Galloped one and one half miles at Keeneland, shipped to Churchill Downs at noon.

    BANDINI - Galloped one mile and three furlongs.

    BELLAMY ROAD - Galloped one and one half miles, schooled in paddock.

    BUZZARDS BAY - Jogged one mile, galloped one mile.

    CLOSING ARGUMENT - Galloped one mile and three furlongs.

    COIN SILVER - Galloped one mile and three furlongs, schooled at gate.

    DON'T GET MAD - Jogged two miles.

    FLOWER ALLEY - Galloped one mile and three eighths.

    GIACOMO - Galloped and schooled in the starting gate.

    GOING WILD - Galloped one mile and five eighths.

    GREATER GOOD - Galloped one mile and one half.

    GREELEY'S GALAXY - Walked the shedrow after working five furlongs in 1:01.79 seconds on Wednesday.

    HIGH FLY - Galloped one mile and one half, schooled in the paddock.

    HIGH LIMIT - Walked the shedrow after working four furlongs in :48.77 seconds.

    NOBLE CAUSEWAY - Galloped one and one half miles, schooled in paddock.

    SORT IT OUT - Galloped one and one half miles.

    SPANISH CHESTNUT - Galloped one and one half miles at Keeneland.

    SUN KING - Galloped one and one half miles, schooled at the gate.

    WILKO - Galloped one mile and one half.
    Racing Assistance

    Comment


    • #3
      Kentucky Derby picks

      Ellis Starr | Equibase.com

      Kentucky Derby – Grade 1
      Race 10 at Churchill Downs – Louisville, Kentucky
      Saturday, May 7, 2005
      One mile and one-quarter, for three year olds
      Purse: $2,000,000
      TV: NBC 5 PM ET
      Full Field to Contest Wide Open Kentucky Derby 131

      Six grade 1 stakes winners, six grade 2 stakes winners and eight other top horses run for the roses in Kentucky Derby 131. With five entrants trained by Nick Zito, three by Todd Pletcher, and many others from fine barns such as those of D. Wayne Lukas, Bobby Frankel and Bob Baffert, anything can happen.

      My Top Five:

      High Fly - Winner of the Grade 1 Florida Derby in his most recent start, earning a career best 93 Equibase Speed Figure, High Fly continues to improve with each start. Each of his Speed Figures in 2005 has been better than the previous one, and with Jerry Bailey guiding High Fly for the third straight time and with more improvement possible, he appears to be very tough as part of the quintet of entrants trained by Nick Zito.

      Noble Causeway – Also trained by Nick Zito, Noble Causeway is coming into the race off a second-place finish to High Fly in the Florida Derby. Noble Causeway improved for the second straight time in that race, earning a career best 92 Equibase Speed Figure. Noble Causeway, a son of 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up Giants Causeway, appears to be able to handle this mile and one-quarter distance and to continue his pattern of improvement.

      Afleet Alex - Winner of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on April 16, Afleet Alex overcame some problems prior to that race and exploded in the stretch to dominate by eight lengths, earning a 93 Equibase Speed Figure. Afleet Alex has appeared to look spectacularly since coming to Churchill Downs, with a sensational pair of workouts recently, and he too could improve off that very competitive last race speed figure.

      Bandini – Won the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in his most recent start, dominating after stalking in third place most of the race, earning an 88 Equibase Speed Figure. Bandini ran second to High Fly in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes prior to that and earned a similar 89 Equibase Speed Figure. Although three to four speed rating points short of High Fly, Noble Causeway and Afleet Alex, Bandini has the potential to move up another notch in this situation.

      Coin Silver – Trained by Todd Pletcher (who also saddles Bandini and Flower Alley), Coin Silver moved forward by a leap and a bound when winning the Grade 2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland two weeks ago, earning a solid 87 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Lightly raced, Coin Silver is on a pattern of three straight improvements in Equibase Speed Figures and may not have peaked yet.

      The rest:

      Bellamy Road earned the best Equibase Speed Figure, 97, of any horse in this race when winning the Grade 1 Wood Memorial in April. Horses who improve so markedly from one race to the next as he has can sometimes be subject to a “bounce,” or regression. Bellamy Road’s next best Equibase Speed Figure was 87, about five points below the main contenders in this field, but still close enough to be competitive if he improves upon it.

      High Limit won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in March then ran second to Bandini in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. His regression from a 90 Equibase Speed Figure in the Louisiana Derby to an 84 in the Blue Grass is of concern, although we should note that he ran from off the pace for the first time in the Blue Grass after going wire-to-wire in his three previous races, all victories.

      Flower Alley comes into the race after finishing second to Afleet Alex in the Arkansas Derby. Both that effort and his win prior to that in the Grade 2 Lane’s End Stakes earned 87 Equibase Speed Figures. He adds blinkers for the race, which may get him to improve.

      Buzzards Bay won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby with an 86 Equibase Speed Figure, a career best. Buzzards Bay also won the non-graded Golden Gate Derby earlier in the year with an 83 Equibase Speed Figure.

      Andromeda’s Hero is another starter for Nick Zito and is coming into the race after finishing third in the Arkansas Derby, earning a career best 86 Equibase Speed Figure, the third race in a row he has shown improvement in speed figure.

      Closing Argument was highly regarded as a Kentucky Derby contender after winning the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes in February, but missed his planned subsequent prep races with some foot problems. He made it back to the races in time to run third to Bandini in the Toyota Blue Grass, and his 82 Equibase Speed Figure wasn’t all that bad considering all the time he had been away. Closing Argument earned a career best 87 Equibase Speed Figure in the Holy Bull and that effort gives him a shot in this race if he can improve upon it.

      Greeley’s Galaxy won the Grade 2 Illinois Derby last month by a powerful nine and a half lengths, earning an 81 Equibase Speed Figure in the process, which was a four-point regression of his previous wining effort and 85 speed figure.

      Wilko won the 2004 Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but hasn’t shown winning form since. In three starts this year, Wilko’s Equibase Speed Figures have been nearly identical; 86, 85 and 85, the same as the 85 earned in last year’s Breeders’ Cup.

      Spanish Chestnut is a horse that wants the lead. He should assure a fast pace and may be responsible for Bellamy Road, High Limit and perhaps Going Wild being taken out of their game plans, setting the race up for a horse that comes from behind. Spanish Chestnut won the Grade 2 San Rafael Stakes in January with a career best 85 Equibase Speed Figure.

      Greater Good tried to duplicate the path that 2004 Kentucky Derby winner Smarty Jones took, sweeping the three prep races in Arkansas, but after winning the Southwest Stakes with an 84 Equibase Speed Figure and winning the Grade 3 Rebel Stakes with an 86 Equibase Speed Figure, Greater Good was trounced in the Arkansas Derby. His recent attitude and workouts have been sub-par, but he can be brilliant on occasion, and he will love a fast pace.

      Giacomo has not won in three races this year, although he has been close, two lengths behind Buzzards Bay in the Santa Anita Derby in his most recent effort with an 84 Equibase Speed Figure.

      Don’t Get Mad won the Derby Trial Stakes one week ago, closing like a rocket to draw off by seven lengths, equaling his best Equibase Speed Figure of 86 in the process. The last horse to have won the Derby Trial and come back to win the Derby was Tim Tam in 1958, as it is a very tough task to ask a young horse for two “A” races in seven days.

      Sun King has regressed his Equibase Speed Figure in two straight races, from 84 to 82 after earning a 90 speed figure in February. In his last start, Sun King was a no-threat fourth to Bandini in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

      Sort It Out rallied to finish second to Coin Silver in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, earning an 84 Equibase Speed Figure, his best since winning the Whirlaway Stakes in February with an 89 figure.

      Going Wild may have peaked earlier in the year, having earned an 89 Equibase Speed Figure winning the San Miguel Stakes in January, with his last two figures 66 and 74. It should be noted, however, that his trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has as much Derby experience as any trainer in the race and has won it four times.
      Racing Assistance

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      • #4
        Thanks Champs 4 posting

        Comment


        • #5
          Thanks for the input Champs. Greatly appreciated.

          Comment


          • #6
            This is from TVG

            KENTUCKY DERBY 131 ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES



            By Roxy Roxborough
            Noted Las Vegas Oddsmaker and The HorsePlayer Magazine contributor

            The Kentucky Derby presents horseplayers with two unique handicapping conditions unobserved in daily American racing. First, is the 10-furlong distance. Most of these horses never will be asked to run this far again. With a recent emphasis on “breed for speed,” not all will be suited for 1-1/4 miles. Second, American horseplayers are never asked to handicap 20-horse fields.

            In order to get a grip on a 20-horse field, I find it best to group the horses into three categories: (The odds listed are my mine.)

            Top Choices:

            Horses who have shown quality races around two turns more than once in their career. I figure there is a 68-percent chance the winner will come from this group. Bellamy Road (3-to-1), Afleet Alex (9-to-2), Bandini (5-to-1), High Fly (10-to-1), High Limit (15-to-1) and Noble Causeway (15-to-1).

            Contenders:

            Those that have run at least one quality race but may not be able to reproduce that quality consistently. A Derby win is within the realm of probability. Greeley's Galaxy (18-to-1), Sun King (18-to-1), Wilko (25-to-1), Don't Get Mad (25-to-1), Flower Alley (30-to-1) and Coin Silver (35-to-1).

            Pretenders:

            Even with a career-best effort these horses would be hard-pressed to win. In other words, if one of these wins, you'll walk out of the track shaking your head and muttering to yourself. You might even consider quitting the game for a week. Greater Good (40-to-1), Sort It Out (40-to-1), Buzzard's Bay (50-to-1), Closing Argument (50-to-1), Andromeda's Hero (50-to-1), Giacomo (60-to-1), Going Wild (100-to-1) and Spanish Chestnut (150-to-1).

            Let's take a closer look at the top choices.

            Bellamy Road: While much is made about his devastating Wood win, not all the speed-figure makers agree exactly how fast the race was. Beyer makes it one of the fastest three-year old races ever. Brown and Ragozin make it fast, but just a length better than Bandini's Blue Grass and Afleet Alex's Arkansas Derby. It's hard to take a low price - even if he is the best.

            Afleet Alex: He may be able to overcome his lack of breeding with the trainer's exhaustive work regimen. His Arkansas Derby was fast and the last quarter-mile was sensational. Alex had had two super preps, but the caliber of horses behind him in those races is questionable.

            Bandini: The Blue Grass winner has had three quality nine-furlong starts, moving forward in each. He has every right to improve again. His tactical speed will keep him out of a suicidal duel on the lead and keep him within striking distance of the lead. Bandini should be the third betting choice. He's my pick to win.

            High Fly: His only loss in six starts may be attributed to a bad post at Gulfstream Park, where inside draws were richly rewarded going nine furlongs. He figures to be near the lead throughout. With Jerry Bailey aboard, he won't lose because of the trip.

            High Limit: Trainer Frankel has won every major American race but the Derby. His style of lightly racing horses is not a winning profile in this spot, but talent and trainer must be respected. His only loss was a credible second to my top pick. He may have distance limitations.

            Noble Causeway: Has shown improvement in each of his six career races. Like High Fly, he has been off for five weeks, but trainer Zito figures to have him fit. His closing style will benefit from a fast early pace. Since he is not a deep closer, he can avoid serious traffic problems.

            The Bet: The HorsePlayer Magazine is giving me $100 to wager. Hey, if I ONLY lost $100 on every race I ever bet, I would have serious money now!

            $40 win Bandini
            $10 exacta box Bandini-High Fly ($20)
            $5 exacta box Bandini-Noble Causeway ($10)
            $5 exacta box Bandini-High Limit ($10)
            $1 trifecta key Bandini over High Fly, High Limit, Noble Causeway, Greeley's Galaxy, Sort It Out ($20)
            Remember the three R's:
            Respect for self; Respect for others; and Responsibility for all your actions.

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