Shamardal being hammered in Kentucky Derby futures betting

[griswold]

I've never seen anything like this. All of the British bet shops and most of the offshore sports books have lowered the odds on Shamardal to win the Kentucky Derby to about 8-1 and most now have him as the favorite.

Shamardal is last year's European two-year old champion and is regarded as the best European two-year old in a decade. He makes his three-year old debut Saturday in the Grade 2 $2 million UAE Derby in Dubai. I can't think of the last time a foreign based horse, who hasn't run yet on dirt, and hasn't raced once as a three year old has been the subject of such Derby betting action.

My own belief is that the hype is probably legit and if he wins Saturday that he will come to Kentucky and win our Derby. Breeding, by the way, is all American and all dirt: Giant Causeway out of a Machiavellian mare.

[rwall]

Gris,
I don't know about Shamardal, but have you seen the the race line for Pavo out of the Gotham. This is the a very impressive horse (so far)

PAVO raced close up outside, rallied four wide despite his rider losing his irons after the saddle slipped into the turn, dug in grimly between rivals, brushed with GALLOPING GROCER in deep stretch as was game to the wire while having his rider inadvertantly strike NAUGHTY NEW YORKER with his whip in the final yards.

Now the race was only a mile, but he was up on the pace with times of 22.27 and a half in 44.59 (the fastest of this weekends preps) a pace which benefited the closing style of SURVIVAILST.
This is a horse I will keep an eye on for a future race. I don't know if the Derby is a reality. I haven't seen any breeding info yet, but a jockey change from Alan Garcia would be a big plus.

[griswold]

RW,

I did see the Pavo race. Garcia was a complete idiot for losing his irons and not getting back into them but also did a remarkable job in steering the horse kind of straight. Nonetheless, if the winner of the Kentucky Derby comes out of the Gotham, I'll be shocked.

Past performances for the Dubai races, including Shamardal's race, are now available at the Daily Racing Form site, www.drf.com. The entire Saturday Duabi card will be televised on TVG and carried on the web on youbet.com. First post is 8:30 am central. Look for Roses In May to get upset in the Dubai World Classic by both Congrats and Yard-Arm.