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SANTA ANITA -- Race #5 -- CALIFORNIA POWER (#4)
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The 5th race is a $16,000 claiming sprint at 6-1/2 furlongs on the dirt. Par is a 102. I don't like ALPHABETIC, the morning line favorite in here. He doesn't have the sharpest final figures anyway, and he runs best on the lead but now faces a much stiffer pace challenge from guys like DEALINWITHINSANITY and GOT THE MESSAGE. ALPHABETIC will be overbet off of his last win, which was a wire to wire victory at a very speed biased distance at Hollywood. His winning figures from that effort were a 102-97 for the 99 level so the final figure wasn't even up to par for the 99 level and he ran his final 1/8th of a mile in almost 14 seconds. The other alarming thing was that Jeff Mullins had done some drastic tweaking of ALPHABETIC in the last start, adding blinkers and cutting his price tag in half to $8,000. I think it was a risky claim and even though Bill Spawr is a great claiming trainer I think he's being way too greedy to try and jump ALPHABETIC from $8,000 to $16,000 off the claim. The figures just don't support the jump in class and the horse is extremely vulnerable. Whenever I have strong feelings against a morning line favorite, it makes a race playable.
I really like the chances of CALIFORNIA POWER (3-1) to come back and win his 2nd in a row today. He was able to rally from last to first at Hollwyood last time out while winning at $12,500 level with figures of 94-100+. He also has a 99-103 showing in his effort from 4 starts ago which was also his last dirt sprint at Santa Anita. CALIFORNIA POWER is a sharp closer who should get a dream setup with the pace in front of him. He'll be making his first start for Mike Mitchell and looks sharp to jump up and win on the slight bump in class today.
CALIFORNIA POWER is the spot play win bet today. I like his chances to win so will focus on the win bet but I'm also going to combine him with DEALINWITHINSANITY and CHARMER BARON to try and hit a nice quinella without using the favorite. Good luck.
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The 5th race is a $16,000 claiming sprint at 6-1/2 furlongs on the dirt. Par is a 102. I don't like ALPHABETIC, the morning line favorite in here. He doesn't have the sharpest final figures anyway, and he runs best on the lead but now faces a much stiffer pace challenge from guys like DEALINWITHINSANITY and GOT THE MESSAGE. ALPHABETIC will be overbet off of his last win, which was a wire to wire victory at a very speed biased distance at Hollywood. His winning figures from that effort were a 102-97 for the 99 level so the final figure wasn't even up to par for the 99 level and he ran his final 1/8th of a mile in almost 14 seconds. The other alarming thing was that Jeff Mullins had done some drastic tweaking of ALPHABETIC in the last start, adding blinkers and cutting his price tag in half to $8,000. I think it was a risky claim and even though Bill Spawr is a great claiming trainer I think he's being way too greedy to try and jump ALPHABETIC from $8,000 to $16,000 off the claim. The figures just don't support the jump in class and the horse is extremely vulnerable. Whenever I have strong feelings against a morning line favorite, it makes a race playable.
I really like the chances of CALIFORNIA POWER (3-1) to come back and win his 2nd in a row today. He was able to rally from last to first at Hollwyood last time out while winning at $12,500 level with figures of 94-100+. He also has a 99-103 showing in his effort from 4 starts ago which was also his last dirt sprint at Santa Anita. CALIFORNIA POWER is a sharp closer who should get a dream setup with the pace in front of him. He'll be making his first start for Mike Mitchell and looks sharp to jump up and win on the slight bump in class today.
CALIFORNIA POWER is the spot play win bet today. I like his chances to win so will focus on the win bet but I'm also going to combine him with DEALINWITHINSANITY and CHARMER BARON to try and hit a nice quinella without using the favorite. Good luck.
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