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here's todays play....wiz glad to see you were on yesterdays pick....
HOLLYWOOD PARK -- Race #4 -- GIACOMO (#5)
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The 4th race is a 1st level allowance for 2 year olds at 1-1/16 miles. Par is a 102. This race is interesting because there are three 2 year olds who will all have their share of fans and will be getting the lion's share of the betting. All 3 of them have earned figures in the range of the 102 par but the report gives a clear advantage to only one of them. I thought this was a good place to point out one of the features on the speed figure reports that show the raw times of the opening quarters/turn times in sprints and how we can use them to evaluate the chances of a horse that will be stretching out in distance for the first time. In the sprint races just below the pace and speed figures in the "horse's figs" column on the report are the raw time of the opening quarter that the horse ran and then the "turn time" that the horse ran which is the raw time of the 2nd quarter of the race (which happens on the far turn of the sprint). When a horse is stretching out for the first time you would ideally like to see turn times that are very similar to the raw opening quarter times or if the horse actually has a little faster turn time than opening quarter it's even better.
CHIPS ARE DOWN has sprinted 4 times and will be stretching out for the first time. After disappointing sprint figures in his first two races, he has put back to back nice figures together while beating maidens with a 101-101+ and then running a close 2nd in the Sunny Slope stakes with a 98-103. I do like the way that his final figures are a little higher than his pace figures which means he's running pretty evenly throughout his sprint, but I didn't like the way he's gone under 22 seconds for the opening quarter mile in those 2 sprints and then gone 23 seconds or higher on the turn time quarter mile. He's obviously got good talent with his blitzy opening quarter speed, but he's not really rationing his speed very well between the first two quarters of the sprint. That is a negative when he tries to stretch out in distance.
GIACOMO is the colt I liked the best in this race because he's already proven at the distance and has earned a 99-100-103 figure when be beat maidens by 10 lengths at 1-1/16 miles. That was his 2nd start and in the first sprint start he showed by his opening quarter/turn time that he might be best at a distance of ground. His opening quarter was 23.5 and his turn time quarter was 23.1 which was actually a little faster. He broke slowly in that first start so it may have also contributed to the faster turn time, but the combination of those 2 quarter mile times is the pattern of a colt who should enjoy a longer distance. I liked the 103 figure he earned beating maidens (already right above par for this 102 allowance level) and I think he's got another good race in the tank. Trainer John Shirreffs has been unveiling some talented two year olds already at this meet and GIACOMO has a nice future. I think he will relax and allow CHIPS ARE DOWN to tear out and push the pace early and then move in for the kill.
TEXCESS was the 3rd colt in this race who will attract a lot of attention. He earned a 95-94-100+ while busting open the Cal Cup Juvenile stakes a month ago. He won clearly but has to be able to improve off that to challenge again today. I thought that Cal Cup field was very weak and his winning figure was a few lengths below the 104 stakes par. However, his figure does fit OK with this 102 par level group and he is already a stakes winner so the only reason TEXCESS even qualifies for this first level allowance is because that was his first win and this race is also open to horses who have not won two races lifetime.
Those 3 colts make this small field of 2 year olds an interesting handicapping exercise. GIACOMO is the spot play win choice and would be a key to the other 2 in the exotics. Good luck.
HOLLYWOOD PARK -- Race #4 -- GIACOMO (#5)
__________________________________________________ __________________
The 4th race is a 1st level allowance for 2 year olds at 1-1/16 miles. Par is a 102. This race is interesting because there are three 2 year olds who will all have their share of fans and will be getting the lion's share of the betting. All 3 of them have earned figures in the range of the 102 par but the report gives a clear advantage to only one of them. I thought this was a good place to point out one of the features on the speed figure reports that show the raw times of the opening quarters/turn times in sprints and how we can use them to evaluate the chances of a horse that will be stretching out in distance for the first time. In the sprint races just below the pace and speed figures in the "horse's figs" column on the report are the raw time of the opening quarter that the horse ran and then the "turn time" that the horse ran which is the raw time of the 2nd quarter of the race (which happens on the far turn of the sprint). When a horse is stretching out for the first time you would ideally like to see turn times that are very similar to the raw opening quarter times or if the horse actually has a little faster turn time than opening quarter it's even better.
CHIPS ARE DOWN has sprinted 4 times and will be stretching out for the first time. After disappointing sprint figures in his first two races, he has put back to back nice figures together while beating maidens with a 101-101+ and then running a close 2nd in the Sunny Slope stakes with a 98-103. I do like the way that his final figures are a little higher than his pace figures which means he's running pretty evenly throughout his sprint, but I didn't like the way he's gone under 22 seconds for the opening quarter mile in those 2 sprints and then gone 23 seconds or higher on the turn time quarter mile. He's obviously got good talent with his blitzy opening quarter speed, but he's not really rationing his speed very well between the first two quarters of the sprint. That is a negative when he tries to stretch out in distance.
GIACOMO is the colt I liked the best in this race because he's already proven at the distance and has earned a 99-100-103 figure when be beat maidens by 10 lengths at 1-1/16 miles. That was his 2nd start and in the first sprint start he showed by his opening quarter/turn time that he might be best at a distance of ground. His opening quarter was 23.5 and his turn time quarter was 23.1 which was actually a little faster. He broke slowly in that first start so it may have also contributed to the faster turn time, but the combination of those 2 quarter mile times is the pattern of a colt who should enjoy a longer distance. I liked the 103 figure he earned beating maidens (already right above par for this 102 allowance level) and I think he's got another good race in the tank. Trainer John Shirreffs has been unveiling some talented two year olds already at this meet and GIACOMO has a nice future. I think he will relax and allow CHIPS ARE DOWN to tear out and push the pace early and then move in for the kill.
TEXCESS was the 3rd colt in this race who will attract a lot of attention. He earned a 95-94-100+ while busting open the Cal Cup Juvenile stakes a month ago. He won clearly but has to be able to improve off that to challenge again today. I thought that Cal Cup field was very weak and his winning figure was a few lengths below the 104 stakes par. However, his figure does fit OK with this 102 par level group and he is already a stakes winner so the only reason TEXCESS even qualifies for this first level allowance is because that was his first win and this race is also open to horses who have not won two races lifetime.
Those 3 colts make this small field of 2 year olds an interesting handicapping exercise. GIACOMO is the spot play win choice and would be a key to the other 2 in the exotics. Good luck.