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**MemphisMafia** · 10-30-2004, 08:09 PM

Re: The Cup`s Outlooks :

Lone Star Park

I tender these as legitimate plays that have a shot , a longshot or two will land today and I always favor them for obvious reasons because one of them equals 4 favorites in the pocket (sometimes more) . I also show the off races here for a full card in todays action .

Race 1 D. R. Horton Metroplex Mile Stakes

1 Pie N Burger )( Theriot
9 Snorter )( Castellano [* Longie *]
3 During )( Nakatani

Super & Tri round outs = 5/7/12

Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $983,239
4 Wishingitwas 78.00 29.60 14.20
10 Seek Gold 16.00 8.40
3 During 4.40
7
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Race 2 Breeders' Cup Distaff

1 Ashado )( Velazquez
10 Island Fashion )( John
11 Stellar Jayne )( Albarado

Looongshot = #3

Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $3,097,057
1 Ashado 6.00 3.60 2.80
7 Storm Flag Flying 7.00 4.00
11 Stellar Jayne 4.80
3
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Race 3 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

3 In The Gold )( Castellano [* Longie *] Scratched
4 Runway Model )( Bejarano [* Longie *]
1 Balletto )( Bailey

Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $3,452,881
10 Sweet Catomine 6.60 4.00 3.00
1 Balletto (UAE) 4.80 3.40
4 Runway Model 5.00
7
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Race 4 Netjets Breeders' Cup Mile

12 Nothing To Lose )( Velazquez
14 Mr O'brien )( Coa [* Longie *]
2 Silver Tree )( Prado [* Longie & Wink *]

Looongshot = #10 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $4,143,442
10 Singletary 35.00 15.60 9.80
7 Antonius Pius 37.60 13.60
11 Six Perfections (FR) 5.00
4
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Race 5 Breeders' Cup Sprint; 6 Furlongs

5 Kela )( Bailey [* Longie *]
13 Midas Eyes )( Prado
2 Speightstown )( Velazquez

Looongshot = #9

Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $4,140,082
2 Speightstown 9.40 5.20 4.00
5 Kela 5.00 4.00
12 My Cousin Matt 15.00
1

Exacta 41.60
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Race 6 Vo5 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf; 1 3/8 Miles

9 Riskaverse )( Velasquez [* Longie *]
12 Wonder Again )( Prado [* Longie *]
7 Light Jig )( Douglas

Looongshot = #4

Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $4,014,411
5 Ouija Board (GB) 3.80 3.00 2.80
3 Film Maker 9.00 6.60
12 Wonder Again 6.60
4
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Race 7 Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile; 1 1/16 Mile

2 Roman Ruler )( Nakatani
6 Proud Accolade )( Velazquez
3 Afleet Alex )( Rose

Looongshot = #5

Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $3,893,107
8 Wilko 58.60 18.20 6.80
3 Afleet Alex 5.00 3.60
1 Sun King 5.60
4
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Race 8 John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf; 1 1/2 Miles

7 Star Over The Bay )( Baze [* Longie *]
4 Kitten's Joy )( Velazquez
6 Magistretti )( Prado

Looongshot = #5 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $3,942,242
5 Better Talk Now 57.80 12.40 5.20
4 Kitten's Joy 2.80 2.20
1 Powerscourt (GB) 3.00
6

Exacta 134.80
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Race 9 Breeders' Cup Classic; 1 1/4 Miles

1 Ghostzapper )( Castellano
9 Funny Cide )( Santos
6 Roses In May )( Velazquez

Looongshot = #10

Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $8,498,771
1 Ghostzapper 7.00 4.00 3.60
6 Roses in May 8.20 5.20
12 Pleasantly Perfect 3.00
4

Exacta 46.40
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Race 10 Conifer; 1 1/8 Miles;

10 Needwood Blade )( Flores
4 Waupaca )( Lanerie [* Longie *]
8 Kathir )( Velazquez

Super & Tri rounds outs = 6

Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $1,153,587
6 Royal Regalia 4.80 3.40 2.80
8 Kathir 4.60 3.60
13 Xirius 11.20
12
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Race 11 Lone Star Park Juvenile Stakes;

7 Spanish Chestnut )( Farina
8 Logan's Draw )( Perrodin [* Longie *]
3 City Code )( Pettinger [* Longie *]

Super & Tri round outs = 1/4

Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $785,974
1 Storm Surge 6.20 2.40 2.20
7 Spanish Chestnut 2.20 2.20
3 City Code 2.60
5
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Race 12 Optional Claiming $25,000; 1 Mile; turf

1 Stauch )( Theriot
1A Bay Eagle )( Beasley
8 Home Made Soup )( Melancon

Super & Tri round outs = 7/9

Looongshot = #10

Result = 1478

Fun Fact for your wagering today- since the breeder's cup inception, nearly twenty five percent of the winners have left the gate at odds of 20-1 or higher. Look hard for value today more so than any other day of racing.

G.L.

***MMM*** [/B][/QUOTE]

Well as history would prove itself once again , the Longies were flowing like hot lava today

**Hellboy** · 10-31-2004, 06:50 AM

Nice one, Mrs MM !!
Tailed you on those longshots.
A great Breeders Cup day.
Thanks.

**MemphisMafia** · 10-31-2004, 08:55 AM

Hellboy :

Thanks for noticing and its always considered to be a good day when you call 4 of 7 longshots that hit the board ( Cup Races ) .

Of that 2 were outright nails on the head , and one has to think about winning more money on the lowest paying nag than most did while winning 5 races playing the favorites and not even counting the 59.00 nag either.

We will take that everyday

Hopefully the string will continue as I have fared quite well in the majors this past year with only the Preakness giving me a black-eye in over a year when capping the biggies .

Thanks again and the best to ya

G.L.

***MMM***

PS : In horses its not the quantity but the quality of the pay-outs !

**McVilleKing** · 10-31-2004, 09:43 AM

MM reigns

What an impressive and profitable day. Thanks and keep it up.

**MemphisMafia** · 10-31-2004, 10:45 AM

McVilleKing :

Coming from a poster that doesnt say much often ..... We Thank You

Hope you landed one or two !

G.L.

***MMM***

**djlivejive** · 11-01-2004, 12:54 AM

nice picks MMM as always....my dad hit the tri in the Mile and it payed $12,000 plus for $2...he bet a $5 tri, i couldnt believe it but the check proved it

**Kaptain** · 11-01-2004, 08:29 AM

Lady M

good job--as usual---always---kapt

**MemphisMafia** · 11-01-2004, 09:41 AM

Fellas :

djlivejive :

Thats fantastic and congrats to him ..... is he going to share that signer or not

Really I am glad and these races always turn-up the screws for the longshots as history would note . Doseage always comes to bear in these runs and I always temper my wagers with a bit of that info under the belt .

kmann :

Why Thank You my Man , and I hope your laying the wood to the book as always

Take Care

G.L.

***MMM***

Remember to let your wagers do the talking on the internet , and keep the rest of the bull-shit under wraps guys

**Luv2Play2** · 11-01-2004, 05:56 PM

i read your card and results alittle late

a B.Day thing i went to. and i must say it "again" ..............
why am i not suprised ??? great job and and always glad
to see you land those biggy's for anyone paying attention

sure miss ya

wishing the best for you..

L2P2

**MemphisMafia** · 11-01-2004, 07:17 PM

Luv2Play2

Why Thank You My Friend :

As I said up top here in this post :

Fun Fact for your wagering today- since the breeder's cup inception, nearly twenty five percent of the winners have left the gate at odds of 20-1 or higher. Look hard for value today more so than any other day of racing.
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Then I ran across a article that was actually writen by Rick Needham a few years ago at another site , and I thought since Im famous for copy and paste I would share it with you and others here :

Bobtailnag

Longshots In The Bc Races

I stumbled on an article shortly after the BC last year which, if you like to wager, you might find surprising. Since the inception of the BC in 1984 there have been 1577 betting interests. If you had wagered $2 on every one of those 1577 entries you would have invested $3154 and received in return $3093. And if Frans Valentine had not been DQ in the 1984 Juv Filly race, the return would have been $3197 – a $43 profit. We who have been wagering on the ponies for some period of time know how difficult it is to maintain a positive ROI and yet as far as the BC races go, you could just about do it by betting every horse in every race.

The writer, who apparently was also a bettor surmised that if you betting every horse yielded a break even proposition, who no handicapping involved, that there must have been a lot of big payoffs over the years. So he looked a little closer and discovered that if you wagered only on the huge long shots ( His definition of “huge” was horses going off at 20/1 and higher) you would have made 613 wagers at $2 each – cost $1226, and you would have realized a return of $1588.20 – a positive ROI of 30%.

I think what makes this information a significant revelation is that this didn’t just happen for a couple of years, this happened over a span of 25 years which should cause you to think this is might not just be a coincidence but a pattern that is likely to continue to occur. So I decided to look at all his data and do a little more research and speculation on my own.

We all have discussed the state of the breed in North America due to the top breeders switch from breeding for stamina and class to breeding for the sales ring. I think you all might agree that today we have fewer top runners who stay in top form, stay healthy and more importantly, stay consistent. If this is true, then we should see an increase in fewer of the top 3 or 4 betting interests winning and more long shots getting the top spot. Have we?

In the past 5 years, 1999 thru 2003, there were 184 horses who went off at 20/1 or more in the BC races and those$368 in bets would have returned $669 – a positive ROI of 82%. Now get this – that 82% ROI includes 2001 when NO 20/1 horses won a race. Even with missing a whole year and wasting wagers on 37 20/1 shots – you still would have almost doubled your money.

I went a little deeper. I wanted to try to refine it a bit more so that I might be able to lower the number of 20/1 horses to consider when looking for those elusive big odds horses to consider for the exotic wagers – and I think I found something and the reason why it might be viable.

Going back far enough to cover the years when the breeders new “sales ring” mentality was evolving I discovered that a) there have been no 20/1 winners in the F&M Turf (But there have only been a handful of those races to date). B) In the past 15 years there has only been one 20/1 winner in the Mile and that was Domedriver in 2002 – the year Landseer broke down at the head of the stretch – and I might be wrong but I think that the favorite, Rock or Gibralter, was behind Landseer and had to pull wide to avoid the falling horse, and we all remember that RofG was closing like freight train and almost won it anyway. C) Since 1991 there have been no 20/1 winners in the Turf. The 3 turf races combined only had 1 20/1 winner in 15 years and that ONE might have been caused by a falling horse.

Why just the turf races? Think European. They still breed for stamina and class, they have been kicking our tails in the grass races, and everybody knows it so they get bet heavier.

My bottom line here is that if you play the exotics and/or the PK-3’s and/or PK-4; and if you like to use multiple horses on top, you might want to look for any reason what-so-ever to put one of the 20+/1 runners up there because it just might be one or the 2 or 3 looong shot winners on the day – and from what this data says, the odds are very strong we will have a couple of theM this year – and they will do it in the dirt races.

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And for the most part it held true again this year , I often wonder if people are paying attention concerning this phenomenon because its up my alley to know these things being in the bizz . AS you can see hes trying to refine the process by digging even deeper into which ones ( Races ) produce even better than some others and that my friend is a racing mind .

There are to few of them around and we need more of them

Thanks for your time and I hope to send you a full door-knocker very soon so you can tell the boz`s @ Derby Lane that Mama`s still at it :eek:

Wishing You The Best

G.L.

***MMM***

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